Ferringo Examines Early Line Moves
by Robert Ferringo
It's time once again for that weekly waltz that occurs between our friends over at the Las Vegas Sports Consultants and the sharp gamblers that pry apart the early college football spreads. Essentially, the LVSC recommends the lines to their clients, the sportsbooks, each week and the books respond by posting a suitable opening number. The sharps then come along like ravenous wolves encircling a wounded animal, ready to pounce on any number that they feel displays weakness or vulnerability. The result is an early week steam move on those seemingly weak lines, and that helps set the number that a majority of bettors in the general public will then have to wager on.
Just as there is a science and an art to setting the lines, it also requires a certain amount of skill to be able to red these opening line movements. Like stockbrokers, handicappers and bettors can learn a lot about a game by the way the early line moves break. So while I am no J.P. Morgan, I am here to try to shed some light on some of the college football games with the most significant variance from the time of the spreads' release on Sunday to the open wagering on Monday morning.
Over the past two weeks the strongest initial college line movements have only precluded a win against the spread for the team getting heavy early action in four of 13 instances. Either the sharp money is getting a bit dull or the books are intent to short worthy favorites. To this point, sharp action has gone 14-14 against the spread in college movements and 12-7 ATS in the NFL movements. That's 26-21 ATS (55.3 percent) overall. Here are some of the most noticeable and significant early steam movements in both the college and pro football opening lines:
PRO FOOTBALL
Miami at Houston (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
Open: Houston -4.5.
Current: Houston -5.5.
I didn't think that the LVSC came up short on the Texans, but apparently the public disagrees. The Dolphins are a mess and it's pretty clear that Trent Green was done about four years ago. However, if this number touches six, which I believe it will, I really think that the value shifts back to Miami. File it under "Least Likely Things To Happen This Week", and given that dogs have been covering and winning outright at a torrid pace to start the season I think that's exactly why it could be a worthy play.
Seattle at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
Open: 42.0.
Current: 39.0.
The Seahawks are just 1-3 against the total and have seen an average of just 35 total points in its opening four games. Pittsburgh has also stayed 'under' in two of its last three games with an average of just 39.5 points in its opening four games. Both clubs are in the top five in scoring defense, with only a combined 25 points allowed per game. Other than that, I don't know why the total is trailing downward. That being said, the Steelers are a spectacular 12-3-2 against the total in their last 17 home games.
Chicago at Green Bay (8 p.m., Sunday, Oct. 7)
Open: Green Bay -4.0.
Current: Green Bay -3.5.
Sharp action on the Bears? Hey, it's been that type of season. The Packers are 4-0 ATS while the Bears are 0-4. Clearly the early bettors are anticipating a reversal of both trends. Chicago is in complete Desperation Mode while the Pack is flying high. If healthy, Chicago's defense is strong enough to keep this one within a field goal and if Brian Griese can avoid the inexplicable mistakes he made last week I think they could win outright.
docsports.com
Portis's Injury Is Sprained Knee, Not Tendinitis
By Jason Reid
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 3, 2007; E05
The Washington Redskins yesterday clarified Coach Joe Gibbs's comments about the knee injury suffered by running back Clinton Portis during the team's loss to the New York Giants, saying Gibbs misspoke when he described it as being a recurrence of the condition that sidelined Portis almost all of the offseason and preseason.
Gibbs on Monday said Portis had experienced another bout of tendinitis in his right knee, prompting Portis to sit out the first practice after the Redskins returned from a bye week. Portis, however, bruised and sprained his right knee (a Grade 1 injury, the least severe sprain) in the 24-17 loss Sept. 23 at FedEx Field.
Bubba Tyer, director of sports medicine, shouldered responsibility for the confusion, explaining he had not updated Gibbs about Portis's status before Gibbs met with reporters after practice.
"I didn't tell the coach. I didn't clarify it before he talked," Tyer said. "He just assumed that it was tendinitis and the same thing. It was my fault that he didn't get the correct word out."
Gibbs did not say when Portis's injury occurred, but the Redskins "knew from the first quarter he had landed on his knee," Tyer said. Portis, who declined comment at Redskins Park, said on "The John Thompson Show" that he was injured in the second quarter. He was on the sideline for Washington's last two offensive plays of the game with the team trailing 24-17 and the ball on the Giants 1-yard line.
On third down, Ladell Betts ran left and was stopped for no gain. On fourth down, Betts ran left for a two-yard loss. Gibbs has described Portis and Betts as being "interchangeable," and Portis's injury was not a factor in determining which running back was on the field for the last offensive plays, Tyer said.
"A guy comes over [to the sideline] and we're looking at an injury, we make a decision, 'Should he be in there?' That was never discussed with Clinton," Tyer said. "There was never any discussion about holding him out."
Portis leads the team in rushing with 48 carries for 227 yards -- a 4.7-yard average per carry -- and three touchdowns. Betts has only 82 yards in 30 carries -- a 2.7-yard average -- without a touchdown.
On Thompson's radio show, Portis said he received treatment all week, is wearing a sleeve on his leg to reduce swelling and expects to play Sunday. Tyer also was optimistic Portis would be able to play against Detroit.
"Our hopes are that he'll be ready to play on Sunday," Tyer said. "We think he will be."
The Lions are 29th in total defense and 17th against the run. After rushing for 191 yards in a victory over Miami and 130 in a victory at Philadelphia, the Redskins had only 82 yards on 27 carries against the Giants, including 17 yards on 10 rushes in the second half. Portis had four carries for 15 yards after halftime.
"We're definitely a running team, and he's a big part of what we do," quarterback Jason Campbell said of Portis. "You want him out there, but you want to make sure he's healthy. It's a long season."
If Portis sits out against the Lions, the Redskins would rely more on Betts, who has not yet found his rhythm after rushing for a career-high 1,154 yards last season.
"No matter who's in there, whether it's Clinton or me, we're ready whenever the coaches call our number," Betts said. "As a running back, you want to carry the ball all the time, but you know that's not going to happen. You just have to keep making the most of your opportunities."
Redskins Notes: Wide receiver Santana Moss has not tested his injured groin by running on land, but he has run in a water tank while team medical personnel evaluate him. "He's doing better," Tyer said. "He's trying to get as much rest [by not participating in drills] and we're exercising him. . . . He feels fine doing that. We're taking him day-to- day and will do more tomorrow." . . . Safety Sean Taylor (bruised knee) is expected to participate in full drills this week. . . . Cornerback Fred Smoot (hamstring) may be limited in practice, but is expected to play after sitting out the last two games.
Niners QB Alex Smith out for Sunday, but won't need surgery
ASSOCIATED PRESSSANTA CLARA, Calif. -- Quarterback Alex Smith will miss the San Francisco 49ers' game against Baltimore on Sunday, but won't need surgery on his separated right shoulder.
Coach Mike Nolan said Monday the 49ers won't set a target return date for Smith until Thursday, when the swelling subsides in his shoulder.
Though similar injuries sometimes require two to three months of recovery, Nolan expressed hope Smith might even return by Oct. 21, when the 49ers visit the New York Giants in their first game after a bye week.
Smith was hurt on the third play of the 49ers' 23-3 loss to Seattle on Sunday when 308-pound defensive tackle Rocky Bernard landed on him while sacking him.
Trent Dilfer, who got his first game action since 2005 in relief of Smith, will get the start against the Ravens, the team Dilfer led to its only Super Bowl victory.
49ers: Smith's season in jeopardy
Alex Smith is seeking a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews after preliminary MRI results indicated he appears to have suffered a serious injury to tendons in his right shoulder in Sunday's game, a team source told ESPN.com. If the diagnosis performed at Stanford is confirmed by Andrews, the source said that it is expected Smith would opt to have corrective surgery immediately even though he would likely miss the rest of the season.
Rams bench Bulger for Frerotte
Associated Press
St. Louis Rams quarterback Marc Bulger, who has been playing with two broken ribs, will be replaced by backup Gus Frerotte for Sunday's home game against Arizona.
"Bulger is hurt, and Frerotte is the quarterback until Bulger's ribs heal," Rams spokesman Rick Smith said.
Coach Scott Linehan told both quarterbacks Tuesday.
The 36-year-old Frerotte started 15 games in 2005 for Miami, where Linehan was the offensive coordinator at the time. Bulger will be Frerotte's backup against the Cardinals (2-2) on Sunday.
"If he has to, he will play," Smith said.
It's unclear how long it will take Bulger to heal after injuring the ribs in the season-opening loss to Carolina.
Bulger, who signed a six-year, $65 million contract extension in training camp, has been playing behind a patchwork offensive line decimated by injuries. Left tackle Orlando Pace and guard Mark Setterstrom are out all season with injuries, and guard Richie Incognito has yet to play because of a high ankle sprain.
A two-time Pro Bowl player, Bulger has been ineffective most of the season, part of the reason the Rams are 0-4. In a 35-7 loss Sunday at Dallas, Bulger was 11-of-24 for 114 yards and an interception. St. Louis' lone score came on a punt return. In fact, the Rams haven't scored an offensive touchdown since Week 2.
The change at quarterback came after Linehan had said Sunday and Monday that Bulger gave the Rams the best chance to win.
Cards WR Boldin questionable
October 3rd, 2007
Tempe, AZ (Sports Network) - Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin did not participate in team practice on Wednesday and is questionable for Sunday's game against the St. Louis Rams.
Boldin missed last Sunday's 21-14 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers due to a sprained hip suffered in the Cardinals' 26-23 loss to Baltimore on September 23.
In three games this season, the Florida State product has 22 catches for 286 yards and three touchdowns.
Line of Scrimmage: Week 5 - Bucs Are a Quiet Surprise
October 3rd, 2007
Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - They won't soon be celebrated like those 4-0 teams, the Colts, Cowboys, Packers, and Patriots. All four of the remaining NFL undefeateds can boast star power at the quarterback position and have been mostly viewer-friendly on the offensive end of the football, which means lots of headlines and strong network ratings forthcoming.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are not undefeated, have a journeyman taking their snaps, and have not set the world on fire in the offensive realm.
The only thing the Bucs have in common with the four teams above is that they are alone in first place, which you have to believe is just fine with head coach Jon Gruden.
Tampa Bay did not accrue a ton of style points in its 20-7 road takedown of the Carolina Panthers last Sunday, a victory that gave the Buccaneers early control of the top spot in the NFC South. In fact, quarterback Jeff Garcia and company shot out to an early 14-0 lead and coasted thereafter, never scoring another touchdown all day but riding a blossoming defense to its third consecutive win.
The Bucs shut down Panthers playmakers David Carr (19-of-41 passing, 155 yards), DeShaun Foster (15 carries, 64 yards) and Steve Smith (5 receptions, 32 yards). For the second straight week, the Buccaneers took a shutout into the fourth quarter. For the third consecutive Sunday, Tampa Bay failed to allow a single meaningful point.
The casual NFL observer might not recognize that this team has given up just 44 points in its first four games, and that roughly half of those came in a compass-finding 20-6 loss on opening day at Seattle.
Since then, the Bucs have been outstanding, even if their Q rating doesn't yet reflect it.
"More than anything, we're not allowing big plays," said Buccaneers middle linebacker Barrett Ruud of the defensive effort. "We're keeping the ball in front of us, and guys are doing a good job of tackling. We're always going to hustle, but when your assignment is sound and you keep the ball in front of you, that's how good things happen. And when you make an offense go on a 12 or 13-play drive, that's tough to do. That's what we're going to try to keep doing."
Correction Barrett, that's what you'll have to keep doing.
Sunday's win came with a hefty price, as left tackle Luke Petitgout and running back Cadillac Williams were both lost for the season with knee injuries.
Petitgout, the team's major free agent signing on the offense this past offseason, will be replaced by inexperienced second-year-pro Donald Penn, with former starter Anthony Davis waiting in the wings if Penn falters.
Williams, who had gotten off to a slow start and had actually been outplayed by Earnest Graham and Michael Pittman in recent weeks, could be easier to replace, though his injury robs Garcia and the offense of one more much-needed weapon.
The new look offense's first assignment will be contending with Dwight Freeney, Robert Mathis, Bob Sanders and the Indianapolis defense when the Buccaneers come calling upon the RCA Dome this Sunday.
With that in mind, and also knowing that the key to beating the Colts is slowing Peyton Manning and the Indy passing game, look for Gruden and the Buccaneers to again lean hard on an underrated defense.
"Standards are high," said Gruden following Sunday's win. "We want to win games and to do that we have to play very good defense; stop the run, get some three-and-outs, get turnovers. We need to do that Sunday.
"We realize the Colts are very talented and we'll probably be a heavy underdog."
Let's take a look at the week that will be in the National Football League:
FANTASY - FIVE TO START
Vince Young, QB, Tennessee (vs. Atlanta) - Falcons' nondescript defense won't have a clue against the multi-dimensional Young.
DeShaun Foster, RB, Carolina (at New Orleans) - Saints have been terrible against the run so far, and that trend isn't likely to change against Carolina.
Jerricho Cotchery, WR, N.Y. Jets (at N.Y. Giants) - Eric Mangini will find a way to exploit the Giants' weak secondary, where Andy Reid could not.
Donald Lee, TE, Green Bay (vs. Chicago) - He's developing into one of Brett Favre's most trusted targets.
Dallas Defense (at Buffalo) - A strong pass-rushing and turnover-forcing team playing against a rookie quarterback? You betcha.
FANTASY - FIVE TO BENCH
Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego (at Denver) - With the type of mistakes he's making, unbelievable that he's in his fourth year.
Shaun Alexander, RB, Seattle (at Pittsburgh) - Steelers front seven owned Alexander in the Super Bowl, and will own him again.
Michael Jenkins, WR, Atlanta (at Tennessee) - After two-touchdown performance against Texans, he'll recede quietly back into the night.
Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland (at New England) - Having a strong year, but will have trouble getting open against the Patriots.
Tampa Bay Defense (at Indianapolis) - Colts showed how bad they could make a talented defense look last week against Broncos.
SUICIDE POOL PIX
1. New England (vs. Cleveland) - This one should be over by halftime.
2. Tennessee (vs. Atlanta) - Falcons are unlikely to put up back-to-back strong performances.
3. Indianapolis (vs. Tampa Bay) - Bucs have been a pleasant surprise, but they are nowhere near being ready to handle to the Colts.
Edwards to again fill in for gimpy Losman
October 3, 2007
Associated Press
ORCHARD PARK, N.Y. (AP) -- Bills rookie Trent Edwards will make his second straight start when Buffalo hosts Dallas on Monday night after J.P. Losman missed practice Wednesday.
Coach Dick Jauron ruled Losman out, saying the quarterback is recovering steadily from a sprained left knee but it's not clear when he'll be able to resume practicing with the team.
Losman has been out since he was hurt during the first series of a 38-7 loss at New England on Sept. 23.
Edwards was inconsistent standing in for Losman against the Patriots, but shined leading the Bills to their first victory in his first career start, a 17-14 win over the New York Jets last weekend.
The third-round draft pick out of Stanford went 22-of-28 for 234 yards passing with a touchdown and interception, helping the Bills produce a season-high in yards passing, yards offense (304), first downs (19) and points. Edwards' 78.57 completion percentage was the eighth best in team history and his performance raised speculation that he will retain the No. 1 job once Losman is healthy.
Jauron continued to sidestep questions about whether Losman would get his job back.
"The response to that question has always been the same for me, and it has been for a number of years: Any position on our team is up for grabs. It always is," Jauron said. "The best guy will be the guy that plays. Other than that, there's not a whole lot to say about that position right now because J.P. isn't able to practice."
The Bills enter their bye week after playing Dallas, and then host Baltimore on Oct. 21.
Edwards is attempting to keep an even keel in preparing for a prime-time game.
"It's definitely been a fun experience so far. I never thought it would happen this quickly for me. But that's the way the pieces fall sometimes," he said. "I am going to just try and keep doing my job. I know I still have a lot to learn."
Buffalo remains a banged-up team as it prepared to host its first Monday night game since Sept. 26, 1994.
Backup safety Jim Leonhard (calf) and reserve linebacker Kevin Harrison (knee) were ruled out after both were hurt last weekend. Reserve cornerback Ashton Youboty's status is uncertain after he missed practice with an ankle injury also sustained against the Jets.
That further depletes a defense that already has three starters on the season-ending injured reserve list. And that doesn't include reserve defensive end Ryan Denney (broken foot) and reserve linebacker Coy Wire (sprained knee), both of whom aren't expected back until after the bye.
Starting linebacker Keith Ellison practiced Wednesday for the first time since hurting his knee in Buffalo's preseason finale, but it's not clear whether he'll be ready to play Monday.
The Bills could get back one player on Sunday: reserve defensive end Anthony Hargrove, who finished serving the NFL's four-game suspension for violating the league's substance abuse policy.
The Bills have not yet decided to activate Hargrove, although he has returned to practice. The Bills have until Monday afternoon to make a decision whether to activate or release him.
Jauron said he's pleased Hargrove stayed in condition while he was suspended, but added the player is not yet in game shape.
"We're pulling for him," Jauron said. "He's a very likable guy, a guy you want to have everything to go well for him. We're in his corner."
Hargrove said he'll be playing after he practiced with the Bills first special teams unit.
"Look for me. If we're kicking off first, I'll be out there getting this thing bumping and jumping," Hargrove said. "Monday night, prime-time TV: That's nothing but setting the stage for me."
And he was thankful the Bills stuck by him during his suspension.
"This is a gift. Not everybody gets to play this game," he said. "They gave me a second chance. They believe in me. And I don't want to let them down."
Hargrove still faces potential trouble from a confrontation he had with police outside a Rochester nightclub during training camp in August. He pleaded not guilty to three misdemeanors and is next scheduled in court on Oct. 11.
Colts down four starters against Bucs
October 3, 2007
Associated Press
INDIANAPOLIS (AP) -- Tony Dungy hopes three of his injured starters can play against Tampa Bay this week. He just can't count on it.
So when the Indianapolis Colts went back to work Wednesday, Dungy was making contingency plans for the possible absences of receiver Marvin Harrison, running back Joseph Addai and safety Bob Sanders, all of whom were hurt in last Sunday's victory over Denver.
"No one's out, and if they can practice by Friday, it would be a plus, definitely," the coach said Wednesday before practice. "You can sit and wait and hope that they'll come back, but I've never been one to do that. You have to move on."
None of the three practiced Wednesday and the only certainty was that outside linebacker Rob Morris, another starter, would be placed on injured reserve, ending his season. Morris, the Colts' first-round pick in 2000 and a key ingredient in the defense's postseason resurgence, had surgery Tuesday to repair a tendon in his left knee.
But uncertainty continued swirling around three of the Colts' biggest names.
Harrison, fourth on the NFL's all-time receptions chart, injured his left knee when Denver linebacker D.J. Williams rolled into Harrison's leg while tackling Addai. When the series ended, Harrison headed to the locker room with what the Colts called a bruised knee.
"I can't say it would not be different if he wasn't out there," Super Bowl MVP Peyton Manning said. "We certainly hope he will be."
Addai, last year's top rookie rusher, bruised his right shoulder in the fourth quarter when he was tackled near midfield. Sanders, the heart of the Colts' defense, didn't play in the second half against Denver after hurting his ribs.
It's a familiar theme for the former Pro Bowl safety who entered this season hoping to play all 16 games for the first time in his four-year career. He missed 24 of 48 games in his first three seasons.
"Obviously, Bob is a big part of our defense and if he's not out there, we'll miss him," middle linebacker Gary Brackett said.
Another factor in Dungy's decision might be timing.
The Colts (4-0) have a bye next week and because Tampa Bay plays in the NFC, the game won't have the same tiebreaker implications as an AFC opponent. Holding all three players out would give them more than two weeks to recuperate.
Plus, Indianapolis appears to have enough depth to overcome most of the injuries.
Backup safety Matt Giordano played extensively in Sanders' absence last season, and has been even better this year in limited action.
Six-year veteran Rocky Boiman, who has one start, 11 tackles and an interception this season, replaces Morris.
If Harrison can't play, the Colts' options include more frequently using rookie receiver Anthony Gonzalez, a first-round pick; moving tight end Dallas Clark into the slot, which Indy did successfully in the playoffs after Brandon Stokley went down with a torn Achilles' tendon last year; or reverting to their two tight-end formations.
"I think we're preparing for a little bit of everything like we always do," Clark said. "We've just got to go in and see, kind of, what the personality of the game is."
Finding a replacement for Addai would be tougher.
The only other running backs on Indy's active roster are Kenton Keith, Luke Lawton and Clifton Dawson, who was signed last week. Keith spent the last four seasons in the Canadian Football League and none of the three had an NFL carry until the season opener.
Last week, Keith carried 10 times for 80 yards, primarily after Addai left, and is confident he can do the job this week if needed.
"I'm ready to roll," Keith said. "I'm always ready to roll."
But will Dungy need all those replacements?
"We're preparing to play without those guys," he said. "Hopefully, they'll practice by Friday, but you never know. So we've got to get the other guys ready to go."
Dolphins' Tillman undergoes knee surgery
October 3rd, 2007
Miami, FL (Sports Network) - Miami Dolphins safety Travares Tillman underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee Wednesday, joining a growing list of defensive players who will not be available for the team's game Sunday with the Houston Texans.
Tillman's operation was performed by Dr. George Caldwell at Broward General Medical Center, and he, along with Vonnie Holliday, who has a fractured right ankle, will definitely not play Sunday in Houston.
Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder is recovering from a sprained right ankle and did not practice Wednesday. Linebacker Zach Thomas participated in limited action in his return from a concussion.
Donovan Darius, who had nine tackles in Miami's loss to Oakland last week, will likely start in Tillman's place in the secondary.
Rams injury problems continue
October 3rd, 2007
St. Louis, MO (Sports Network) - The St. Louis Rams will miss four players for the team's contest Sunday against the Arizona Cardinals.
Guard Adam Goldberg is out with a knee injury, running back Steven Jackson is sidelined with a partial tear of his groin, wide receiver Dane Looker has a thigh issue and linebacker Raonall Smith is nursing a right knee sprain.
In addition, wide receiver Isaac Bruce and safety Corey Chavous did not practice on Wednesday. Bruce left in the third quarter of last Sunday's 35-7 loss to Dallas with a left hamstring injury, while Chavous strained a pectoral muscle in Sunday's game.
Starting quarterback Marc Bulger, who has struggled during the Rams' 0-4 and has been replaced by backup Gus Frerotte for Sunday's game, had limited participation in Wednesday's practice due to broken ribs.
Pats re-sign TE Rivers, place TE Thomas on IR
October 3rd, 2007
Foxboro, MA (Sports Network) - The New England Patriots re-signed veteran tight end Marcellus Rivers and placed tight end David Thomas on injured reserve on Wednesday.
Rivers was previously signed by New England as a free agent on August 8, but was released on September 1. He was re-signed two days later only to be cut loose again on September 8.
Rivers, 28, is a veteran of five NFL seasons and has played in 75 games for the New York Giants (2001-04) and the Houston Texans (2005). He also spent time with the Oakland Raiders in the 2006 preseason and was on the New Orleans Saints roster for one game during the 2006 regular season, but was inactive for that contest.
The Oklahoma State product has recorded 51 career receptions for 395 yards and four touchdowns.
Thomas, a second-year tight end, has played in 17 career regular-season games with New England and has caught 12 balls for 168 yards and a touchdown.
QUARTER-SEASON" AWARDS TIME!
goldsheet.com
We’re barely a quarter of the way into the 2007 NFL campaign, but the new season has already taken on some definition. And with the September portion of the calendar now closed, we have enough material to award some bests and worsts of NFL 2007...to date, that is.
BEST TEAM, AFC...Although the defending champion Indianapolis Colts certainly haven’t done anything wrong, and are off to another of their customary fast starts (their 4-0 mark should come as no surprise after going at least nine weeks without a loss from the gate the past two seasons), it’s hard not to give this honor to the New England Patriots. “Belichick-gate” or not, the Pats have been nothing short of breathtaking, winning each of their their first 4 games by 21 points or more, while scoring exactly 38 their first three outings. Monday night’s dominating road win at Cincinnati, when New England “only” scored 34, might have been more impressive than any of the first three wins. The defense is as solid as ever, and we are reminded what Tom Brady was missing a year ago when the Patriots ddn’t have a legit deep threat at the wideout spots. A rejuvenated Randy Moss has certainly changed that dynamic, however, and if that wasn’t enough, New England is also demonstrating admirable depth, as the running game didn’t miss a beat at Paul Brown Stadium despite Laurence Maroney missing action with a groin injury (backup Sammy Morris cracking the century mark in his absence).
BEST TEAM, NFC...No arguments here, as the Dallas Cowboys have looked head and shoulders above anyone else in the conference. They’re already galloping away in the NFC East, and their victories have been every bit as impressive as New England’s, especially that 34-10 romp at Solider Field againat the Bears that might have officially passed the “torch" in the conference to the Cowboys. QB Tony Romo has so far resembled the Romo that took the league by storm during midseason a year ago (as opposed to the Romo that labored down the stretch in ‘06), and, for the moment, at least, Terrell Owens is not proving a distraction. And sources say the team is enjoying life under new HC Wade Phillips, and that Bill Parcells’ boorishness and over-inflated ego are not missed one bit. Maybe Jerry Jones finally hit the coaching homerun that has eluded him the past decade when Chan Gailey, Dave Campo, and Parcells failed to get the Cowboys back to the Super Bowl.
SURPRISE TEAM, AFC...There are a few viable candidates here, but we’re going to opt for the Cleveland Browns. Things certainly didn’t look smooth out of the gate, when the Brownies were popped by Pittsburgh, 34-7, in their opener, and then immediately made a switch at QB from Charlie Frye (traded to Seattle after his demotion) to Derek Anderson, who appeared to be simply keeping the seat warm until rookie Brady Quinn was deemed ready. But Anderson has ignited the Browns, who have scored 102 points in his three starts, and many sources are crediting a change at the offensive coordinator spot as the main reason. It’s now apparent that many of HC Romeo Crennel’s (right) problems his first two seasons in charge stemmed from the subpar work of his old friend Maurice Carthon, who was out of his depth in the offensive coordinator role before resigning his duties midway through 2006. New o.c. Rob Chudzinski, imported from San Diego, has brought the offense up to speed, his scheming and play-calling skills superior to Carthon’s. Honorable mention goes to the Oakland Raiders, who indeed own a win over the Browns and find themselves tied for the top spot in a surprisingly soft-looking AFC West. New HC Lane Kiffin has also revitalized what was the league’s most moribund offense under Art Shell’s watch a year ago, and picking QB Daunte Culpepper off the scrap heap might turn out to be one of the most-inspired personnel moves of the season.
SURPRISE TEAM, NFC...Can it be any team other than the Green Bay Packers? “Shocking” is the best word to describe the Pack’s 4-0 break from the gate, which, on the heels of a similar 4-game streak to close 2006, gives Green Bay a rather remarkable 8-game win skein heading into October. Anyone who doubted Brett Favre’s ability to deliver at this stage of his career has certainly been convinced otherwise after Favre’s work the first month of the campaign, as he has adjusted to 2nd-year HC Mike McCarthy’s “short area” pass system, which stresses utilization of many receivers, who are then expected to make plays after they catch the ball. Favre suddenly loves this system, which resulted in ten different Packers catching a pass last week at Minnesota, with 2nd-year wideout Greg Jennings proving he can take those shorter throws and still go the distance (as San Diego painfully discovered September 23). Sooner or later the Pack will likely come back to earth, especially since they have no credible ground game to speak of (and therein the major difference between Green Bay and Dallas), but the “D” is good enough to keep the Pack in most games, and Favre, of course, remains the ultimate x-factor. Honorable mention to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are upholding the recent pattern of teams rising from nowhere to succeed in the NFC South. QB Jeff Garcia is providing the on-field leadership last year’s injury-ravaged Bucs didn’t have, but the medical report has suddenly reared its ugly head again, with RB Cadillac Williams and OT Luke Petitgout (the ex-Giant had been the early-season glue for a young OL) now both out for the season.
DISAPPOINTING TEAM, AFC...Who else but the San Diego Chargers? The Bolts have borne no resemblance to the 2006 team that won 14 regular-season games, and most onlookers have already conceded that the dismissal of HC Marty Schottenheimer, coupled with the ill-suited and bland Norv Turner (left) as his replacement, is the main reason, as we mentioned on these pages a week ago. So dismal have the Charger efforts been under Turner that the Qualcomm Stadium fans were chanting “Mar-ty, Mar-ty” at the end of San Diego’s latest humiliation against the Chiefs. Sure, the Bolts are still in the AFC West race that no one seems to be willing to take over, but the on-field product has been such a far cry from last season that it is almost startling.
DISAPPOINTING TEAM, NFC...There’s no better reminder that things can change dramatically from one season to the next than the New Orleans Saints, everybody’s darlings when rising from the ashes (literally) in 2006, but, to this point, 2007's whipping post. The fact is that the New Orleans defense wasn’t very good last season, and still lacks playmakers. The stark difference from a year ago is that the “O” hasn’t been able to overcome those deficiencies. The attack has simply lost its bearings, reflected in QB Drew Brees’ horrible stats (1 TDP and 7 picks in 3 games, plus a few more fumbles lost). The young WR corps was overrated (not crisp on intermediate routes, and just not getting enough separation from opposing DBs) and misses vet Joe Horn’s leadership. Meanwhile, defenses are ganging up on Reggie Bush (whom the Saints might have fallen too much "in love" with in the first place), and the offense had mostly forgotten about Deuce McAllister even before his season-ending knee injury suffered in week three against the Titans. McAllister’s ability to get the tough yards was more important to the Saints’ success a year ago than many realized, and without that dimension, the attack could continue to flounder.
DISASTER TEAM, AFC...We were going to give this one to the Buffalo Bills, who had been ripped by injuries the first three weeks, but they bounced back with a gutty effort behind surprisingly-composed rookie QB Trent Edwards (one of Bill Walsh’s last recommendations, by the way) against the overrated Jets in week four. And if the Houston Texans’ offense figured to be as decimated for longer than a few weeks by its recent wave of injuries, we might consider the otherwise-improved Texans for this honor. Instead, we opt for the Miami Dolphins, who have performed listlessly while losing their first four games for new HC Cam Cameron (who, it should be noted, presided over a similarly moribund period of Indiana Hoosier football during his lone previous HC stint in the late ‘90s).
DISASTER TEAM, NFC...Hands down, it’s the St. Louis Rams, who are the latest reminder that fantasy stats don’t translate into wins and losses on the field. Of course, injuries along the OL have hindered the Rams’ offense, but now the injury plague has spread to RB Steven Jackson (groin) and QB Marc Bulger (ribs), as well as WR Isaac Bruce (hamstring). The Rams have been non-competitive in all of their games save a close week two loss vs. the 49ers. And now, some worried fans in the ‘Lou are concerned about a possible 0-16 campaign. It’s a little early to be that alarmist, we think, but even we have to admit that we don’t see a win on the immediate horizon for the Rams, at least until they get a bit healthier. Meanwhile, close on St. Louis’ heels could be the 49ers, just a couple of plays from being 0-4 themselves, and now forced to go with vet Trent Dilfer at QB (which, short-term, at least, might even give them a better chance to win) after Alex Smith separated his shoulder last week vs. the Seahawks. Mike Nolan’s defense appeared to have improved enough to where the Niners could win “ugly” (as they did the first two weeks vs. the Cards and Rams), although the season-ending injury to key LB Manny Lawson was a blow to an improved stop unit that might have the NFC’s best rookie in LB Patrick Willis. Still, Lawson or not, the Niners didn’t really have the defense for Nolan to replicate a version of the 2000 Baltimore Ravens, which might have been his hope in the early going.
MVP, AFC...Hard not to give the nod to New England QB Tom Brady, who is apparently having almost as much fun on the field as he does off it with his latest supermodel girlfriend (Giselle Bundshen) thanks to the arrival of Randy Moss as a dangerous downfield target. Brady completed almost 80% of his passes the first four weeks, with the percentage approaching 90% in the second half of the Patriots’ games. And already, he’s tossed 13 TDs!
MVP, NFC...Not to be outdone in any category by Brady is the aforementioned Tony Romo, who has his own hottie these days (Nashville superstar and former American idol winner Carrie Underwood, with Tony at right), is passing for almost 300 yards per game, and has 11 TD tosses of his own through four weeks. As well as leading an undefeated team, just like Brady. And in Big D, the comparisons to past Dallas QB flameouts Gary Hogeboon and Steve Pelleur we were hearing at the end of last season are now being replaced by those with Hall-of-Famers Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman. Close on Romo’s heels, however, is the rejuvenated Favre.
COACH OF SEPTEMBER, AFC...Certainly, Bill Belichick and Tony Dungy are right at the top of the list, and Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin and Oakland's Lane Kiffin merit consideration, but we’re going to opt for Tennessee’s Jeff Fisher (left) instead. After enduring the Pacman Jones distractions in the offseason, some believed the Titan defense would suffer, but to this point the stop unit has been more than adequate. Moreover, Fisher and sage o.c. Norm Chow have developed a fairly smooth-functioning offense that has been able to effectively camouflage some of 2nd-year QB Vince Young’s shortcomings, instead putting "VY" in positions where he can best make plays. Tennessee has been running the ball better than expected, too, and that’s been a big plus.
COACH OF SEPTEMBER, NFC...Wade Phillips and Mike McCarthy are obvious choices, but W-L records aside, we’re not sure any coach has done as much as Ken Whisenhunt in Arizona. Not only has the Big Red emerged as a contender in the NFC West, but Whisenhunt has changed the mindset of the team, which is more physical, can run the ball, and plays nastier defense than it ever did the past several years for Denny Green or Vince Tobin. Moreover, he’s proven creative and daring on the offensive end, unafraid to effectively platoon QBs Matt Leinart and Kurt Warner. Although those tactics have usually worked better in college football than the NFL, for the moment, at least, Whisenhunt has Leinart and Warner peacefully co-existing.
ROOKIE OF SEPTEMBER, AFC...A close call, but we’ll opt for Kansas City WR Dwayne Bowe, who has provided almost all of the fireworks for a limited Chiefs offense, scoring the winning TD in a crucial week three win over Minnesota, and the turnaround score with his 51-yard pass-run TD reception (shown at right) in week four vs. the Chargers. In a few weeks, however, we might be inclined to switch our vote to Buffalo QB Trent Edwards, the Stanford rookie who opened more than a few eyes with a remarkably poised performance (22 of 28 for 234 YP) in the Bills’ 17-14 win over the Jets. Now, there’s talk of a QB controversy in Buffalo, with injured J.P. Losman no guarantee to get his job back when he returns from a knee injury.
ROOKIE OF SEPTEMBER, NFC...It was obvious from San Francisco’s first game that Ole Miss rookie LB Patrick Willis was going to be something special, and he’s done nothing to dispel that notion. Tremendous athleticism and instincts, and already being mentioned as a future All-Pro...maybe as soon as this season.
COMEBACK PLAYER, AFC...Considering his lack of impact during his stint in Oakland, many thought Randy Moss' days as an effective producer were over. But the draft day trade to New England has rejuvenated Moss’ career, and he is a big reason the Patriot offense has been roaring during the first month of the season. In a few weeks, however, we might be mentioning Daunte Culpepper for this award as well.
COMEBACK PLAYER, NFC...After losing the starting QB job in Arizona to Matt Leinart, Kurt Warner (left) was apparently contemplating retirement in the offseason. But Arizona fans are glad he decided to delay those plans. Warner has proven a big spark for the Cards, as aforementioned HC Ken Whisenhunt hasn’t hesitated to pull Leinart and give Warner a shot to run the Cards’ no-huddle offense, in which he has excelled. Now there are plenty of observers who believe Whisenhunt is close to naming Warner the starter once more, although he has been quite effective in his reliever’s role.
Week 5 NFL Power Rankings
by Robert Ferringo
After a strong 6-3-1 weekend NFL week (+7.5 Units), I'm forgoing the flood of statistical information that I normally pack into my NFL Power Rankings and we're going to get back to basics. Sometimes, NFL handicappers can make things too complicated when it's really as easy as, "New England is awesome and Cincinnati can't possibly stop them. I'll lay the points and start spending that money at halftime." I know it seems odd to change things up after a big Sunday, but I'm just trying to stay sharp by looking at both sides of the coin.
So this week, Robert Ferringo is taking some time off and Captain Obvious is stepping in to spice up the column. Hope you enjoy it. And without further ado, here's Doc's Sports Week 5 NFL Power Rankings:
1) New England Patriots (4-0) - With the exception of this week against Cleveland - a putrid team but one that I think could score enough to slide in the back door of this 16- or 17-point spread - I'm taking the Patriots every week. Every single week. Without exception, and with no handicapping necessary. They're that good.
2) Indianapolis Colts (4-0) - Decidedly not soft. That's my take on this Colts team. And I actually think that they're ready to stand up to the Patriots on a physical level. Will they win that game? No, because Tom Brady is unbeatable in domes. The Colts are 3-1 ATS against the Bucs and are 6-2 ATS recently.
3) Dallas Cowboys (4-0) - I'm not trying to knock the Cowboys. They are clearly the class of the NFC and are the legit Super Bowl contender that I didn't have them pegged to be (mainly because their offensive line is the best it's been since the mid-90s).
4) Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1) - I wouldn't normally hold their loss in Arizona against them. It was just a bad setup from go - in the desert, where the Cards actually defend, against their two former coaches and two guys who got a kicking tee shoved up their ass on the way out of town. But there's one thing that stood out that kind of rattled me: Big Ben once again turning the ball over with horrid interceptions at the goal line. It was the Oakland game from last year all over again, and I though that "Shell Shocked Ben" got all those throws out of his system last year.
5) Tennessee Titans (2-1) - Tennessee is just 5-5 ATS as a home favorite coming out of a bye week. The Titans have covered four straight against the Falcons. We know that Vince Young is a fantastic underdog play but this week we're going to see what he can do as a nearly double-digit favorite against a team that's better than teams are giving them credit for.
6) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-1) - I think there is a ceiling on this club due to the fact that they simply do not have playmakers in the passing game. I think it's a bit premature to have the Jags posted as a road favorite in Arrowhead, especially considering the Chiefs have played well for three straight weeks. Jacksonville is 1-6 ATS in October as a non-divisional road favorite.
7) Green Bay Packers (4-0) - Things are going perfectly for the Pack. Maybe too perfectly. They are 4-0 ATS and facing a Chicago team that is 0-4 ATS. This game seems a bit too easy for the Pack, and five-game ATS winning streaks in the NFL are rare.
8) Seattle Seahawks (3-1) - The Seahawks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four trips to Pittsburgh and a stellar 6-1-1 in their last eight against the Steelers, with the lone loss coming in Super Bowl 40. However, the Hawks are 2-9 ATS in AFC road games and 7-19 ATS in road games, on grass, against teams in the Central or Eastern Time Zones.
9) Washington Redskins (2-1) - Between 1981 and 1992, Joe Gibbs was 86-11 SU when his team held a lead at halftime. However, since 2004 the Redskins are tied with Miami with an NFL-worst 11 blown halftime leads. Washington has dropped four straight home games in which they led at halftime and six of eight at home in those spots since the start of 2005.
10) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) - I really don't think that the Bucs will miss Cadillac Williams. But I know they'll miss Luke Petigout. But that right there is why the Giants let the talented tackle walk: the guy just can't stay healthy. The Bucs haven't allowed a single point in the first half of each of their past three games. I see that changing this week against Indianapolis.
11) San Diego Chargers (1-3) - Norv. Oh, and San Diego simply wasn't as good as they thought they were after last year's 14-2 season.
12) Chicago Bears (1-3) - Three-fourths of Chicago's secondary is on the shelf right now and the fourth member, Adam Archuleta, has a broken hand and is awful in most phases of the game. I think the offense will be fine but for the first time in about seven years I wonder if the defense can stop an opponent from throwing the ball.
13) Detroit Lions (3-1) - I know I'm going to catch hell from Lions fans for having Detroit listed behind Chicago. Well, I hate to be the one that breaks it to you but I don't think the Lions have more than three or four wins left on their schedule. They're converting 32 percent of their third downs and I think we're three weeks away from their season-altering injury to Jon Kitna. I've already got my pen ready to sign his full body cast.
14) Houston Texans (2-2) - Houston's weakness this year was their depth, particularly on defense. To this point, the injury bug has only taken a bite out of the offense but Houston is simply not good enough to overcome those losses. For the second weak in a row Houston is favored over a desperate, winless, healthier team. I smell trouble.
15) Philadelphia Eagles (1-3) - I'm not going to join the litany of "Poor Winston Justice" criers. That was, plain and simple, a horrendous coaching job by the Philadelphia staff. The good news is that the defense showed some signs of life.
16) Baltimore Ravens (2-2) - The thing that pisses me off is that I knew these guys weren't going to be any good this year and yet I haven't been betting against them. I think Baltimore has to make a move to Kyle Boller - as horrifying as that idea is - because Steve McNair is completely and totally washed up. McNair is 3-for-10 in the red zone (TDs only) while Boller is 2-for-4 (including Todd Heap's drop in the MNF opener).
20) Denver Broncos (2-2) - You can't really hold it against the Broncos that they got mauled in Indianapolis. But it's the way that they lost that's so troubling. We know that they can't get any pass rush with their front four, but now Denver is 31st in rushing defense and they are 30th in per-rush against average (5.0).
21) Kansas City Chiefs (2-2) - Again, Herm Edwards teams are notorious for their slow starts. But that was a big-time win against San Diego and we finally saw the Damon Huard that looked so calm and skilled navigating the offense in the middle of last season. Now they just need to figure out how to get L.J. into the second level and this team could be back in the mix.
22) San Francisco 49ers (2-2) - To this point, the 49ers are completing just 24 percent of their third-downs. Not good. And without Alex Smith and Vernon Davis I wonder just how much it can improve.
23) Carolina Panthers (2-2) - Never, ever, back this team as a home favorite. Ever. Simply put: the same holes that were on this team last year are there again this year because they didn't have the cap room to fix them. Throw David Carr in the mix and you've got yourself a 7-9 team. Also, there are a lot of rumors that Julius Peppers is already mailing it in. He's in a contract year so the door may be hitting him on the way out.
24) New York Jets (1-3) - Tough to be a Jets fan and not be disappointed by how amazingly soft this team is. On both offense and defense these guys are weak-willed girls. Also, this team needs to take a shot down the field whether Chad Pennington's shoulder can handle it or not. Only two of his 82 pass attempts have traveled over 20 yards in the air.
25) Oakland Raiders (2-2) - This team is so predictably unpredictable. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in Oakland's four games this year. Oh, and for all of you that think that Daunte Culpepper is back, I guarantee you're going to be kicking yourself by Week 10. Guaranteed. His knee may be OK, but he's still got some five-turnover days left in those hands.
26) New York Giants (2-2) - The Giants are who we thought they were. Did I call it or what: the Giants are fantastic when no one expects anything from them (see: back-to-back SU wins as an underdog) and they are a perennial disappointment as a favorite.
27) Arizona Cardinals (2-2) - I don't know about you, but I don't know if I want any part of the Arizona Cardinals as a road favorite. The Cards are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to St. Louis, but they've been getting at least nine points in four of their last five there.
28) Atlanta Falcons (1-3) - With all of the off-field distractions going on in Atlanta last week that was a really impressive win for Bobby Petrino against Houston. The Falcons have yet to top the 100-yard mark rushing this year. I really think they need to go to Jerious Norwood as a 20-carry back and that situation will be remedied.
25) Cincinnati Bengals (1-3) - Ocho Cinco, T.J., and Carson Palmer can do all the interviews, commercials, and endorsements they want but this is a terrible, terrible team and Marvin Lewis is a terrible, terrible coach. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it was the Ravens players in Baltimore that made that defense tick and clearly not any coaching or scheming that Lewis brought to the table. Every week they put on a missed tackle clinic, and that, my friends, is coaching.
26) New Orleans Saints (0-3) - They miss Joe Horn. And I'm not just talking numbers. The Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games against the Panthers.
27) Cleveland Browns (2-2) - I had to see it with my own eyes, but now I believe it - Derek Anderson is for real. Not "for real" in that Honolulu kind of way, but "for real" in that Jon Kitna kind of way.
28) Buffalo Bills (1-3) - If teams like Carolina, New Orleans, or San Diego had half the heart of this Buffalo team they'd be 4-0 right now. Despite all of the injuries, this team just keeps playing hard. I still don't think they'll win more than four games, but they will battle.
30) Miami Dolphins (0-4) - I've alluded to it, but now I'm just going to come right out and say it: Cam Cameron is going to be an absolutely awful NFL head coach. I just hope he sticks around long enough for me to cash in on it.
31) Minnesota Vikings (1-3) - Wait, does this mean you can't win in the NFL with Kelly Holcomb, TV Jackson, or Brooks Bollinger at quarterback? Oh, really? But how is this for twisted: right now the Vikings have a better offense than New Orleans (No. 1 in 2006), San Diego (No. 4 in 2006), and St. Louis (No. 6 in 2006). Weird.
32) St. Louis Rams (0-4) - Fearless prediction for this weekend's action: if your fantasy league has 10 teams or more in it, someone is going to pick up Gus Frerotte off waivers after he throws for at least three TDs this weekend. That's a hunch play.
docsports.com
Jets S Erik Coleman has concussion; status for Giants game uncertain
October 4, 2007
HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (AP) -Jets starting safety Erik Coleman has a concussion and his availability for New York's game against the New York Giants on Sunday was uncertain.
``We'll evaluate it as we go,'' coach Eric Mangini said Thursday. ``We take concussions extremely seriously. He'll be out for practice today and we'll see how it goes through the rest of the week.''
Coleman was injured during the Jets' 17-14 loss at Buffalo last Sunday, but didn't show symptoms of a concussion until after the game.
``Any time a player has an issue, we always go through that protocol,'' Mangini said. ``This was something that actually developed after the game in terms of the symptoms and things like that.''
Mangini added that Coleman told the team Monday he was having discomfort. Coleman was listed as out for practice on Wednesday with a head injury, but was it was changed to a concussion Thursday as the result of, as Mangini termed it, ``a clerical oversight.''
Coleman, who was not in the locker room during media availability, has started the Jets' first four games and leads the team with 35 tackles. If Coleman can't go Sunday, Eric Smith would likely get the start, with Rashad Washington and Abram Elam filling in.
``Well, if that opportunity does present itself, I've got to take advantage of it,'' said Smith, who was unaware of the extent of Coleman's injury. ``We're still waiting to see. It's a few days off, so we'll have to wait and see what happens.''
Smith, a third-round pick out of Michigan State last year, was pushing Coleman for the starting spot before injuring his right leg a few days before the preseason opener against Atlanta in August.
``I feel like I made a lot of progress during training camp and I feel like it went pretty well,'' Smith said. ``I did get hurt and it was real frustrating to have to sit out a while. Now, I'm still working back from it and trying to get to where I was.''
Carr likely to start; Delhomme still sidelined
October 4, 2007
CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) -David Carr appears likely to making his second straight start at quarterback for the Carolina Panthers after Jake Delhomme missed practice again Thursday.
While coach John Fox would not identify a starter for Sunday's game at New Orleans, Delhomme hasn't thrown a football since straining his right elbow on Sept. 23 against Atlanta.
Carr completed 19 of 41 passes for 155 yards, one touchdown and one interception in Carolina's 20-7 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday.
Linebackers Dan Morgan and Adam Seward also missed practice Thursday. Morgan has a partially torn Achilles' tendon, while Seward has missed the past two games with a calf injury.
Running back DeShaun Foster returned to practice Thursday after missing Wednesday's workout because of a coach's decision.