Pointwise NFL
2--NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo 30-10
3--NEW ORLEANS over Carolina 34-17
4--KANSAS CITY over Cincinnati 27-22
5--SAN FRANCISCO over Washington 23-10
5--MIAMI over New York Jets 27-17
TAMPA BAY 31 - Oakland 10 - (1:00) -- Here we go! Bucs have come from 9-3
start, to their present 9-6 log, but, as of this writing, they are still alive in the
Wild Card chase. Their 21-0 pt 4th quarter deficit hosting the Chargers was
surreal. Gruden has chance to take out frustrations on his old squad, & Super
Bowl 37 victim. Raiders are the only team in NFL history to lose 11 games in 6
straight years, but check scoring in their first 3 possessions vs formerly red hot
Houston. Bucs are 27-10 ATS off being upset, are 20-12 ATS in Dec hosters,
& 34-18 ATS as non-division hosts. Raiders 4-17 ATS in their season finales.
GREEN BAY 30 - Detroit 24 - (1:00) -- Well, the Lions are now the only team in
NFL history with an 0-15 record, & are on the precipice of the ultimate downer,
an 0-16 season (never been done). So, what are their chances to prevent that
distinction? Well, the visitor is 11-1 ATS in Lion games, but they have not
beaten the Pack in GreenBay since 1991. That's right, 17 years. In their latest
loss, their 31st ranked "D" allowed TDs in the Saints' first 6 possessions (532
yds by NewOrleans). But the Packers 1-9 ATS in 2nd straight division tilt, vs a
foe off 2+ losses. Detroit is 14-2 ATS away off a DD SU/ATS non-division loss.
PHILADELPHIA 17 - Dallas 13 - (1:00) -- T.O. returns to Philly. The up-&-down
'Boys in off allowing 265 RYs, while failing to reach 100 RYs for the 8th time this
year. Still half-game up on the Eagles, but that means nothing, with the loser
here, eliminated. Division visitor was 6-0 ATS in Philly games, before managing
just 3 pts at Wash, with the game ending on the 'Skin one. The Eagles had
converted 33-of-50 3rd downs in 3-game run, but were just 3-of-14 vs Wash.
But Philly has held 8 foes below 15 pts, while Dallas scored 14, 14, 14, 13 pts
in its last 4 RGs. First meeting went to Dallas, 41-37. Nowhere near that here.
New York Giants 24 - MINNESOTA 17 - (1:00) -- Check it out. A year ago, the
Vikings travelled to NewYork, & pulverized the eventual Super Bowl champs, to
the tune of 41-17, despite managing only 15 FDs & 251 yds. That's right, the
TO, as Eli tossed no less than 4 INTs, with 3 taken back for scores. Minny still
in it, despite losing 4-of-7 fumbles in gift-wrapped win for the Falcons. Thus the
door is now open for the Bears, & don't forget, the Vikes own the best rush "D"
in the NFL. Of course, the Giants own the best rush "O". Giants are a brilliant
13-2 ATS away, while Vikings are 16-33 ATS off losing as a fav. Mild revenge.
HOUSTON 27 - Chicago 20 - (1:00) -- Well, the 5-game spread run, as well as
the 4-game straightup run of the Texans came to an abrupt end at Oakland, as
their 3rd-ranked NFL offense was held to just 17 FDs, 90 RYs & 324 TYs by
the Raiders' 26th-ranked "D". Schaub: just 19-of-36. And the Texans, who
had allowed 29 ppg in their first 10 games, but just 14 ppg in their 4-game run,
were pummelled for 27 by Oakland's 31st-rated "O". The Bears are just 8-29
ATS on the Dec road, are 1-8 ATS as dogs vs an opponent off a DD loss, & are
0-10 ATS as dogs vs a foe off a DD ATS setback. One final vote for the Texans.
NEW ORLEANS 34 - Carolina 17 - (1:00) -- As figured, the Saints came in once
again a chalks, in their 42-7 demolition of the woeful Lions. No punts in that 532
yd, 32 FD effort, with TDs in their first 6 possessions. Brees needs 402 PYs to
top Dan Marino's record of 5,048 yds, set in '84. The Saints exceed as chalks,
covering 7-of-8 in that role this year. That coincides with the favorite covering
9-2-1 in Panther games, entering their fray with the Giants. And note Carolina
allowing 45 & 31 pts in their 2 RGs prior to their battle with NY. Panthers 7-0
ATS at NewOrleans, but recent road demise is not conducive to an extension.
ATLANTA 30 - St Louis 10 - (1:00) -- Falcons have clinched playoff spot, on the
heels of a 4-12 season. Remarkable. Their 4-0 TO margin at Minny helped, as
did the continual excellence of Turner (1,339 yds) & Ryan (15/9 & 62%). The
Falcs are now 9-2 vs non-division foes, but are an interesting 0-11 ATS as
hosts of a pair wins. Now nine straight losses for the Rams, with a 243-93 pt
deficit in their last 8. In off blowing a 13-pt lead in the 4th vs SanFran. And that
"O" has topped 20 pts in just 1 of its last 15 games! StLouis 13-31 ATS on the
non-division road & is only 1-8 ATS travelling vs a winning non-division team.
Kansas City 27 - CINCINNATI 22 - (1:00) -- The worst "O" in the NFL (Bengals)
takes on the worst "D" in the NFL (Chiefs). Check a 2-game run for Cincy, with
an accompanying 6-1 TO edge. In off pitching shutout vs inept Browns, with
Benson toting it a career-best 171 yds. Cincy has a 161-86 pt deficit at home
this year, but did cover its last hoster by 14 pts. The visitor has been king all
season long in KC games, with the guest on an 18-7 ATS run. In off having a
31-24 lead over Miami evolve into 38-31 loss (Thigpen: 3 INTs), but note 180
Chief RYs in that one (8.6 ypr). Also note KC's 27-6 ATS log in season finales.
BALTIMORE 26 - Jacksonville 10 - (1:00) -- A win, & the Ravens are in. Seems
weird that at this writing, neither Baltimore, nor Miami, nor NewEngland has
nailed down a Wild Card spot, despite the weekly success of all 3. Ravens in
off Pitt & Dallas wars, so may be softened a bit for the Jaguars, but don't bet on
it. J'Ville ranks only 20th, offensively, & taking on this "D" is formidable, to say
the least, especially for Garrard, who has already been sacked 41 times. And
check that 265-92 RY edge in Raven win over Cowboys. Ravens 15-5 ATS off
pulling an upset, & are 18-2 as non-division HFs off a SU win. A Baltimore call.
Tennessee 27 - INDIANAPOLIS 17 - (1:00) -- This one means nothing. Titans
snagged the home field throughout the AFC playoffs, with LW's 21-0 windup vs
Pitt. Posted a 4-0 TO edge in that one (now at +15 TOs for the season), & have
allowed only 2 of their last 19 foes to top 17 pts. And they took the Steelers,
even without Haynesworth (knee). Eight straight wins for the Colts, thanks to
their 17-0 4th quarter edge at Jacksonville. Check Manning hitting his first 17
passes in that one. He is 57-of-71 the past 2 weeks (682 yds). The Titans are
13-5 ATS in their season finale, while the Colts are just the opposite: 3-14 ATS.
PITTSBURGH 20 - Cleveland 10 - (1:00) -- Steelers in off 4 killers. Had 5-game
run snapped at Tennessee, thanks to 4 Roethlisberger TOs, but still own the
best "D" in the NFL, holding 10 foes below 18 pts. Their overland game is
suddenly cause for concern (70, 91, 71 RYs last 3 games), and note that the
visitor is on an 8-3 ATS run in Pitt games. The Browns? Try no TDs in their
last 20 quarters! Try 31 pts in their last 5 games. Try losing their last 2 RGs
by a combined 58-19. Try being shutout by Cincinnati. Try 5 Dorsey INTs last
2 wks. But Cleve is 8-0 ATS off a SU/ATS loss with revenge vs a foe off a loss.
Miami 27 - NEW YORK JETS 17 - (1:00) -- It's all falling apart for the Jets, with
their current 0-4 SU/ATS slide, averaging 11 ppg in 3 of the 4, after smoking at
35 ppg in 8 of their previous 9. And check Brett at only 21/19. But, amazingly,
they're still alive in Wild Card chase (barely). The Dolphins are now the first
team ever to win 10 games following a 1-win season. Pennington has become
a model of efficiency (7-of-7 in LW's winning drive vs the Chiefs.). That one
snapped a 12-0 ATS dog run in Dolphin games, so why not begin another skein
here? Miami is 6-1 ATS with revenge vs an opponent off a DD SU loss. Dolphs!
New England 30 - BUFFALO 10 - (1:00) -- Wow! The Patriots are scoring ala
Tom Brady of late, with 48, 49, & 47 pts in 3 of their last 5 outings. A 27-8 FD
edge over the Cards last week, & >1,000 yds the past 2 weeks (7 TDs for
Cassel). And in their last 3 RGs, they've averaged 40.3 ppg, with the visitor at
12-5 ATS in Pat games lately. Bills are in off taking Denver, despite a 532-275
yd deficit, & Lynch is hurting again. Note Buffalo managing just 3 pts in each of
its last 2 HGs. Pats are 17-6 ATS in their regular season finale, & are 11-2 ATS
as a division RF. And they are 20-3 ATS in their second meeting with the Bills.
ARIZONA 26 - Seattle 17 - (4:15) -- Talk about limping home. The Cards have
lost by 28, 21, & 40 pts in 3 of their last 4 games, & are in off a stunning 328 yd
deficit, along with a 27-8 FD disadvantage at NewEngland. Warner: 30 PYs.
Thus, in many quarters, they are being referred to as one of the worst playoff
teams of all time. The Seahawks saved a bit of face with their win over the Jets,
holding NY to just 3 pts, but they entered with the 30th ranked "D". Revenge
shot for Seattle here, but if Cards have any pride, they will be ready for this one.
SAN FRANCISCO 23 - Washington 10 - (4:15) -- Little incentive for 'Skins here,
as their "spoiler" role was front-&-center, with that smothering of the Eagles last
week, holding Philly to 3 pts. But 'Skin "O" is hardly a well oiled machine, as it
is at just 11 ppg in its last 7 outings. And Wash is only 2-7-1 ATS of late. The
Niners overcame 3 Hill INTs in comeback win over the Rams, so are still giving
it their all, under Singletary. Note winning their last 2 HGs by a combined score
of 59-30. The 'Skins are only 1-7 ATS on the road off taking the Eagles straightup.
Denver 30 - SAN DIEGO 27 - (4:15) -- A loss here, & the Broncos will become
the first team ever to not make the playoffs, after owning a 3-game lead, with 3
games to play. They shouldn't be in that position, after their dominating effort
(257-yd edge), but loss vs the Bills. That one pushed the dog ATS run in Bronc
games to 11-2-1. The Chargers have won 13 straight games in Dec, & Rivers
clicked on a career-best 4 TD passes at Tampa. But note running for only 68 &
90 yds the past 2 weeks. SanDiego is 7-18 ATS off a SU dog win, but has
covered its last 4 vs Denver. First meeting went to the wire, so we call another.
THE GOLD SHEET
The Gold Sheet EXTRA!!! Technical Play of the Week
NFL: ATLANTA over St. Louis...Falcons 11-4 vs. number in ‘08;
BALTIMORE over Jacksonville...Ravens 11-4 vs. line in ‘08; MIAMI over
N.Y. Jets...Jets no covers last 4 TY; NEW ENGLAND-BUFFALO
“Over”...Patriots “over” last 6 in ‘08.
KEY RELEASES
BALTIMORE by 23 over Jacksonville
DENVER by 3 over San Diego
UNDER the total in the Dallas-Philadelphia game
UNDER the total PHILADELPHIA 17 - Dallas 13—Dallas controls its
own fate to win a wild card berth; Philly needs some help. However, the Cowboy
offense was not full strength vs. Pittsburgh, with Tony Romo clearly not 100%,
Marion Barber III unable to contribute, and the OL leaky. That is bad news vs.
the Eagle blitzers. Early pick ‘em spread favors Philly (5-2 SU at home) after the
Eagles had to travel to cold & windy Washington last week on short rest. More
wintry weather at the Linc also points to “under.”
(08-DAL. 41-Phil. 37...P.23-20 P.23/78 D.24/68 D.21/30/1/312 P.25/37/0/259 D.1 P.1)
(07-Dal. 38-PHIL. 17...D.24-21 D.32/110 P.19/66 D.20/25/1/324 P.27/46/2/250 D.0 P.1)
(07-Phil. 10-DAL. 6...P.20-11 P.27/134 D.15/53 D.13/36/3/187 P.23/41/0/181 P.1 D.0)
(08-DALLAS -7 41-37; 07-Dallas -3 38-17, Phil. +10 10-6...SR: Dallas 55-43)
BALTIMORE 29 - Jacksonville 6—Terrible offensive matchup for
Jacksonville, with its remade OL having to deal with Haloti Ngata, Terrell Suggs
& Ray Lewis in the stubborn defensive front of a Baltimore team that has
allowed only 10 ppg at home, covering 5 of 7. While Jack Del Rio of the Jags
has run into some chemistry problems TY, Ravens became early believers in
the college style of HC John Harbaugh, with rookie QB Joe Flacco impressing
with his maturity & patience, and with RB Le’Ron McClain coming out of
nowhere to rush for 832 yards and to the Pro Bowl. Deserving Baltimore locks
up its wild card spot.
(05-JACKSONVILLE -6 30-3...SR: Jacksonville 9-6)
*Denver 27 - SAN DIEGO 24—Payback time for S.D. after having a
potential victory in Week Two removed from their grasp by an inadvertent Ed
Hochuli whistle, continuing a string of narrow defeats that cursed the Chargers
much of the season. Norv Turner’s offense has scored 32 ppg its last 3 TY. But
with the AFC West title on the line, the frequently-shaky S.D. defense will be
repeatedly tested to the max by the potent Denver offense, which has allowed
the Broncs to cover three of its last four as a dog. Champ Bailey (9 tackles last
week) finally back in action for Denver. TV-NBC
(08-DEN. 39-S. Diego 38...D.34/19 D.24/145 S.18/80 S.21/33/1/376 D.36/50/1/341 D.0 S.0)
(07-S. Diego 41-DEN. 3...S.20-17 S.37/214 D.20/72 S.13/18/0/270 D.23/36/1/224 S.0 D.2)
(07-S. DIEGO 23-Den. 3...S.18-12 S.38/147 D.19/92 S.18/28/0/187 D.14/32/2/133 S.1 D.1)
(08-DENVER P 39-38; 07-San Diego +1 41-3, SAN DIEGO -9 23-3...SR: Denver 53-43-
TAMPA BAY 30 - Oakland 10—The T.B. defense had been mostly dominant
at home TY, allowing only 6 TDs in 6 games prior to last week’s four in the
Buccaneers’ 41-24 loss to San Diego. T.B. has now yielded 31 ppg in its 0-3
streak since def. coord. Monte Kiffin’s son Lane (fired by Al Davis) became the
HC at Tennessee (and announced Monte would join him at UT), while the
offense has struggled with dropped passes, errant throws, and turnovers. Do
you think Kiffin wants his defense to perform well vs. the Oakland offense
(single digits five times TY)? On the bright side for the Raiders, their long 2008
nightmare will soon be concluded.
(04-OAKLAND -3' 30-20...SR: Oakland 5-2)
GREEN BAY 27 - Detroit 20—With 17 consecutive losses in the state of
Wisconsin (14 straight in Green Bay, 3 in Milwaukee), this is not a good place
for Detroit to avoid the infamous ignominy of an 0-16 season. Especially with
the Lions sporting the most generous defense (32 ppg) in the NFL. Plus, the
Packers have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings at Lambeau. However,
regardless of the site or weather conditions, you can be sure the Detroit players,
who have covered five straight on the road (!), will fight like, well...Lions!
(08-G. Bay 48-DET. 25...G.19-15 G.30/123 D.12/49 G.24/38/0/324 D.23/45/3/262 G.1 D.0)
(07-G. Bay 37-DET. 26...25-25 D.30/134 G.17/100 G.31/41/0/381 D.19/40/1/197 G.1 D.0)
(07-G. BAY 34-Det. 13...G.19-16 G.38/217 D.17/47 D.22/48/2/246 G.16/26/0/177 G.1 D.0)
(08-G. Bay -3 48-25; 07-G. Bay -3' 37-26, G. BAY -4' 34-13...SR: Green Bay 87-64-7)
NY Giants 20 - MINNESOTA 19—You can be sure that the proud, traditionrich
Giants, who fought the undefeated Patriots tooth & nail in LY’s
“meaningless” reg.-season finale, will not roll over in a meaningful game for the
Vikings, even with N.Y. already having sewn up the top seed in the NFC.
Meanwhile, the Vikings’ inconsistent offense is unreliable vs. quality foes. If the
spread rises because Minny “needs” the game more, value will lie with G-Men.
(07-Minn. 41-NYG 17...N.18-15 M.39/127 N.19/75 N.21/49/4/234 M.10/12/0/124 M.0 N.0)
(07-Minnesota +7 41-17...SR: Minnesota 12-10)
Chicago 23 - HOUSTON 20—If Chicago beat Green Bay on Monday night,
the Bears will still be alive in the NFC North and wild card. So, will lean to the
men from the Windy City, with their superior defense and extra motivation.
However, not eager to lay a pointspread premium with Chicago if oddsmakers
and the public combine to jack up the number on the Bears’ side vs. the wellcoached
Houston offense.
(04-Houston +1 24-5...SR: Houston 1-0)
Carolina 31 - NEW ORLEANS 23—Panthers need one more win to sew up
the NFC South. And they have the superior ground game (DeAngelo Williams
4 TDR last week) to get their victory, even vs. the quick-hitting offense of Drew
Brees and the Saints. In this type of game, N.O.’s season-long attrition of
quality defenders could spell the difference. Meanwhile, the much-healthier
Carolina defense is eager to rebound from last week’s late-going fade in N.Y.
(08-CAR. 30-N. Orl. 7...C.18-17 C.37/143 N.22/115 N.21/39/1/228 C.14/22/0/193 C.0 N.1)
(07-Car. 16-N. ORL. 13...N.23-12 N.28/89 C.28/88 N.29/47/2/252 C.11/19/1/155 C.0 N.0)
(07-N. Orl. 31-CAR. 6...N.22-11 N.39/113 C.18/43 N.24/36/1/260 C.18/36/3/152 N.0 C.1)
(08-CAROLINA -3 30-7; 07-Carolina +3 16-13, N. Orleans -3 31-6...SR: Carolina 16-11)
ATLANTA 31 - St. Louis 10—While surprising Atlanta is 5-2 vs. the spread
in its home dome TY, disappointing St. Louis is 2-5 vs. the number away, not
once hitting the 20-point mark. The Falcs are safely ensconced in the playoffs,
but chemistry-rich, enthusiastic Atlanta goes into the weekend with a shot to win
the NFC South. QB Matt Ryan’s underrated corps of WRs (White, *******,
Douglas & Finneran) now has 173 combined receptions, while DE John
Abraham (16½ sacks) was snubbed in NFC Pro Bowl voting.
(07-ST. LOU. 28-Atl. 16...A.23-19 A.18/111 S.26/105 A.33/58/2/324 S.23/35/2/304 S.0 A.1)
(07-ST. LOUIS -3 28-16...SR: Atlanta 44-33)
Kansas City 28 - CINCINNATI 21—At the start of the season, who would
have thought this finale would come down to a duel between QBs Tyler Thigpen
& Ryan Fitzpatrick, with coaches Herm Edwards & Marvin Lewis fighting for
their jobs? Edwards knew he was rebuilding TY, but he anticipated more than
two victories, the bottom-ranked defense, and only nine sacks all season! But
doubt that he anticipated the “arrival” of dual-threat Tyler Thigpen (17 TDP),
who will be in K.C.’s fight for No. 1 QB in 2009. Note that 11 of he last 13 K.C.
scores would have been “over” the early total of 38.
(07-K. CITY 27-Cincy 20...C.22-20 K.34/121 C.18/78 C.26/43/2/295 K.25/35/0/233 K.2 C.1)
(07-KANSAS CITY +3 27-20...SR: Kansas City 13-11)
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Tennessee 16—Since both Tony Dungy and Jeff Fisher
have the option of substituting freely with their teams locked into playoff
positions, this one might have more of the feel of a preseason game than a
regular-season encounter. Which means instead of a Peyton Manning-vs.-
Kerry Collins QB matchup, we’ll likely be seeing some Jim Sorgi vs. Vince
Young. Measured vote, then, for host Colts, on an 8-game win streak and
looking to keep momentum going for next week’s wild card battle, while the
Titans contemplate an extra week of rest before their playoff journey begins.
(08-TENN. 31-Indy 21...T.23-19 I.22/94 T.31/88 I.26/41/2/223 T.24/37/0/193 T.0 I.0)
(07-Indy 22-TENN. 20...I.23-19 T.34/141 I.22/81 I.28/42/1/300 T.17/27/0/172 I.0 T.2)
(07-Tenn. 16-INDY 10...T.25-13 T.39/98 I.10/46 T.24/31/0/258 I.25/40/0/148 T.2 I.1)
(08-TENN. -4 31-21; 07-Indy -7 22-20, Tenn. -4' 16-10...SR: Indianapolis 15-13)
PITTSBURGH 24 - Cleveland 0—Pittsburgh apparently has some things to
sort out on the attack end before the postseason, especially with Ben
Roethlisberger continuing to take a beating and the offense still struggling to
convert on the ground in short-yardage situations. But Cleveland is the
Beyonce’ of offensive woes, as the Brownies are plumbing uncharted depths of
ineptitude after their fifth straight game without an offensive TD (really!). All
that’s left in Romeo Crennel’s bag of tricks is fourth-string QB Bruce
Gradkowski after Ken Dorsey (0 TDP, 7 picks TY) was humanely removed in
last week’s 14-0 loss vs. Cincy.
(08-Pitt 10-CLE. 6...C.17-14 P.31/117 C.25/53 P.12/19/0/164 C.18/32/2/155 P.0 C.0)
(07-Pitt 34-CLE. 7...P.17-13 P.38/202 C.15/40 P.12/23/0/159 C.15/33/1/145 P.1 C.3)
(07-PITT 31-Cle. 28...P.22-13 P.35/159 C.18/40 P.23/35/1/242 C.16/35/0/123 P.0 C.1)
(08-Pitt -6' 10-6; 07-Pitt -4' 34-7, PITT -10 31-28...SR: Pittsburgh 58-55)
Miami 23 - NY JETS 13—How ironic that Chad Pennington returns to the
Meadowlands wearing a Miami jersey and with a chance to wrap up the AFC
East for Dolphins! Meanwhile, New York (no covers last 4) has practically
played itself out of playoff contention, as Brett Favre (now 19 picks) and the rest
of the Jets author a meltdown of near-colossal proportions. Miami hardly a fish
out of water in the likely cold and wind at East Rutherford, as the Dolphins (6-
0 last 6 as dog) proved at K.C. that they can handle cold weather ball.
(08-Jets 20-MIAMI 14...M.18-15 N.31/112 M.17/49 M.26/43/1/228 N.15/22/0/181 N.1 M.0)
(07-JETS 31-Miami 28...M.28-22 N.38/141 M.23/112 M.23/36/1/312 N.15/22/0/115 N.0 M.0)
(07-Jets 40-MIAMI 13...N.20-12 N.44/163 M.18/37 N.15/24/1/209 M.23/39/3/150 N.1 M.2)
(08-NY Jets -3 20-14; 07-NY JETS -3 31-28, NY Jets +1' 40-13...SR: NY Jets 46-39-1)
New England 31 - BUFFALO 16—Unfortunately for N.E., the Pats are going
to need help from either the Jets (vs. Dolphins) or Jags (vs. Ravens) to keep
their playoff hopes alive. And Buffalo displayed unexpected life last week at
Denver with QB Trent Edwards back in the lineup. But scoring points vs. the
Bronco defense is a lot easier than vs. Bill Belichick’s still-gnarly “D,” which has
held the Bills to 17 points or fewer the last 10 meetings. Expect N.E. to keep its
playoff pulse beating, with hot QB Cassel (7 TDP last 2!) and suddenly-rampant
attack (49 & 47 points the last 2 weeks!) capable of extending margin.
(08-N. ENG. 20-Buf. 10...N.24-10 N.43/144 B.18/60 N.23/34/0/226 B.13/23/2/108 N.1 B.0)
(07-N. ENG. 38-Buf. 7...N.27-12 N.38/177 B.27/110 N.23/29/0/308 B.11/21/1/83 N.1 B.1)
(07-N. Eng. 56-BUF. 10...N.30-14 N.29/127 B.19/78 N.33/41/0/383 B.15/26/1/151 N.0 B.1)
(08-N. ENG. -3' 20-10; 07-N. ENG. -16' 38-7, N. Eng. -15' 56-10...SR: New England 56-40-1)
ARIZONA 27 - Seattle 16—The Cardinals (0-2; outscored 82-17 since
clinching their first division title in 33 years) desperately seeking momentum
prior to the playoffs. Thus, look for the OL and Kurt Warner to play better, and
for the defense to show some bite back at home vs. scrappy Seattle team trying
to make due with virtually an entire backup OL. Cards (8-2 SU; 7-3 vs. spread
away from the east coast) are a bird of a different feather when they don’t have
to fly to Eastern Time Zone, where they’re 0-5 SU.
(08-Ariz. 26-SEA. 20...A.24-18 A.24/76 S.22/43 A.32/44/1/382 S.17/29/3/153 A.2 S.1)
(07-ARIZ. 23-Sea. 20...A.20-18 A.26/132 S.24/92 A.23/37/1/299 S.22/36/0/278 A.0 S.1)
(07-SEA. 42-Ariz. 21...A.23-21 S.28/80 A.16/50 A.28/46/5/305 S.22/33/0/269 S.0 A.0)
(08-Arizona -3 26-20; 07-ARIZONA +3 23-20, SEATTLE -7 42-21...SR: Arizona 10-9)
SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Washington 13—While S.F. coach Mike Singletary
is secretly applauding himself for changing QBs from J.T. O’Sullivan to Shaun
Hill, Jim Zorn is trying to prove he’s recovered after dubbing himself “the worst
coach in America.” But the 49er players obviously like playing for the intense
Singletary, who is 4-3 SU & 6-1 vs. the spread the last 7 games. Defensivelystrong
Redskins 12-2-1 “under” TY.
(05-WASHINGTON -13' 52-17...SR: San Francisco 16-10-1)
SAN FRANCISCO 20 - Washington 13—While S.F. coach Mike Singletary
is secretly applauding himself for changing QBs from J.T. O’Sullivan to Shaun
Hill, Jim Zorn is trying to prove he’s recovered after dubbing himself “the worst
coach in America.” But the 49er players obviously like playing for the intense
Singletary, who is 4-3 SU & 6-1 vs. the spread the last 7 games. Defensivelystrong
Redskins 12-2-1 “under” TY.
(05-WASHINGTON -13' 52-17...SR: San Francisco 16-10-1)
NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP
KEY SELECTIONS
3* BALTIMORE over Jacksonville - This game features an overachieving BAL team with the #21 & #2 units (+8 TO’s) vs an underachieving JAX team with the #20 & #15 units (-3 TO’s) here. BAL will likely have playoff need here having lost a tie breaker to IND & will be fighting an AFC East team for the last playoff spot. LY JAX was set as the #5 seed & rested their starters in the season finale. They avg’d a franchise high 25.7 ppg, avg’d 149 ypg rush (4.6) ypg & were +8 TO’s. One year later they are at the bottom of the AFC South having avg’d 19.4 ppg, 111 ypg rush (4.2) & are -4 TO’s since their bye. The Jags offense simply lacks any weapons to take the pressure off Jones-Drew (47 ypg 4.3) losing WR Jones to susp while putting RB Taylor on IR with WR Porter (11 rec 16.5) being a huge FA flop. BAL has been able to develop Flacco at a controlled rate & he has responded by playing within the system & leading the team to 7-2 SU & ATS record with a 27-14 avg score. BAL’s defense is allowing 278 ypg, 84 ypg rush (3.8) & is +12 TO’s in that span. BAL is focused & while the line will probably be inflated due to playoff need they are the play vs a Jags team despite their win vs GB is playing uninterested. FORECAST: BALTIMORE 27 Jacksonville 0
2* TAMPA BAY over Oakland - This game has a marked personal interest for TB as it’s Gruden vs Al Davis (TB lost last meeting in 2004, 30-20 as 3.5 pt AD) & DC Kiffin vs his son’s former team that fired him on 10/1. DC Kiffin confirmed after the ATL game that he will be joining his son at UT to be the DC & his players will play hard here. TB is 1-6 ATS in its home finale. OAK is 1-10 ATS in Dec road games. OAK is 9-20 ATS away vs a non-div foe. TY OAK has been outgained 378-225 (-2 TO’s) on the road under Cable losing by an avg score of 25-13. Vs the NFC South OAK has gone 0-3 SU & ATS being outFD 21-10, outgained 371-187 (-2 TO’s) losing by an avg score of 25-3. TB has outgained foes at home (6-0 SU & 4-2 ATS) 329-236 holding them to just 70 ypg rushing (3.3) winning by a 24-13 score & gave SEA a garbage time TD for the backdoor. TB closes out OAK’s season finale with a resounding win. FORECAST: TAMPA BAY 24 Oakland 6
2H SAN FRANCISCO over Washington - This is the 1st meeting since 2005 when WAS blasted SF 52-17 as a 3 pt HF. WAS could have playoff need here if they were able to beat PHI at home LW. WAS already knows how to deal with the pressure as they were in playoff need LY when they rolled an uninterested DAL team 27-6 as a 9 pt HF getting help from DEN to get in. However this is a much different situation as they have a long road trip to SF vs a team playing much better under Singletary. Prior to the bye SF was allowing 29 ppg & had 2.5 giveaways pg while allowing 4.3 sacks per game. Since the bye SF is allowing 19 ppg, 1.8 giveaways & 2.7 sacks not counting LW’s game vs STL. Since their 4-1 start WAS has scored 20 or less in 8 of their L10 games & the only games they’ve won the yardage battle has been STL, CLE, DET, & SEA (1-3-1 ATS). LY WAS had a big intangible edge as they dedicated their late season run to FS Taylor & had a veteran coach in Gibbs to steady the team. Zorn has had growing pains in managing the players on the roster & if the team is out of contention they won’t be overly interested here. SF’s intensity makes them a dangerous team in a favorable situation & we’ll call for them by 13. FORECAST: SAN FRANCISCO 27 Washington 14
OTHER GAMES
GREEN BAY 21 Detroit 14 - This is likely the Lions’ last chance to avoid NFL infamy. DET will have to travel to a cold weather site where they are 0-16 SU & 3-12-1 ATS. DET has had to go thru 4 different starting QB’s TY & it’s unknown if Culpepper will be available here. GB beat DET 48-25 in Wk 2 as a 3 pt AD as Rodgers hit for 328 yds passing (63%) with a 3-0 ratio. GB had a 447-311 yd edge & a 10:56 TOP edge. DET has only put together 5 games of 300 yds offense TY & has been outgained 392-294 (-4 TO’s) on the road TY. While GB has only been held to 200 yds or less offense twice TY the defense has given up 6 games of 350 TY avg 407 ypg & 28 ppg in those. DET will give its all here to avoid a place in Canton but the reality of the situation is that they only have 1 pass catching threat in Calvin Johnson (65 rec 17.9), a running game that has been outrushed 2362 (4.9) to 1107 (3.) TY. GB has a lot of work ahead of itself to fix its #24 defense (#11 LY) & that defense will allow DET to stay within the number here.
PHILADELPHIA 28 Dallas 21 - If both teams have won out then this game will decide the #6 seed in the NFC. Andy Reid is 13-6 SU & 12-7 ATS vs DAL covering 4 of the L5. DAL beat PHI 41-37 but failed to cover as a 6.5 pt HF on MNF in Wk 2. In the 1st meeting it was all about the QB’s as Romo & McNabb combined for 693 yds passing. 2 Romo TO’s gave PHI TD’s inside :14 in a game that had 6 lead changes. On PHI’s last drive McNabb was sacked on 1st & 3rd Dn & were forced to try a hook & ladder play on 4th & 17 which netted 7 yds. NFC East Div HF’s are 4-16 ATS inc playoffs (pending the Giants/Cowboys SNF game). The DAL offense not only is dealing with the TO distractions it now heads on the road where they have not topped 14 points in losses to PIT, NYG, STL & a win at WAS. In the 2 road games since QB Romo returned from his inj he has a 2-5 ratio & now must face a PHI pass defense which is #4 in sacks & has had 6 games TY with 3+ sacks. PHI offense as always depends on McNabb & he’s been stellar at home completing 61% with an 11-2 ratio. Look for PHI to get revenge for a home loss to DAL LY especially knowing they’ve already dropped home games to div rivals WAS & the NYG TY.
Minnesota 24 NY GIANTS 14 - This will be the 7th meeting in 8 years. Manning has had his 2 worst career games vs MIN avg 282 ypg (45%) with a 2-8 ratio including a 41-17 loss as a 7 pt HF LY. Three of Manning’s ints were returned for TD’s & another set up an 8 yd TD run. RB Peterson DNP & RB Taylor had 77 yds (2.5) for MIN. The Giants attitude for this game will likely depend on LW’s matchup vs CAR. If the Giants won then Coughlin will likely play his starters for the 1H to enable Manning to keep building chemistry with Burress out for the year. If MIN won the NFC North they are likely to rest players (DE Allen, RB Peterson) though if Frerotte is healthy he is likely to play the 1H to get his timing back. CAR & ARZ are the 2 common foes here with MIN beating CAR 20-10 as a 3 pt HF in Wk 3. MIN had a 305-204 yd edge & held CAR to 47 yds rushing (2.4), its 2nd lowest total of the year. Vs ARZ the Vikings won & outgained ARZ at the half. The Giants beat ARZ 37-29 as a 3 pt AF as they forced 2 TO’s which setup 14 pts. While ARZ had a 371-351 yd edge the Giants had 5 drives start on the ARZ 46 or better due to TO’s & long KR’s (3 ret 60.0). MIN may very well need this game to win & get into the playoffs. They lost to DEN in LY’s season finale which cost them a playoff spot & look for them to be the more focused team & rely on the run game to get the win here.
HOUSTON 33 Chicago 23 - The Bears lost 24-5 in the only other meeting as a 1 pt HF (2004). Despite a tough start to the season HOU could be playing for their 2nd consecutive non-losing season here. Kubiak is 2-0 SU & ATS in season finales winning by 8 & 14 both of which were at home. CHI’s big game was LW off a MNF HG vs arch-rival GB. If they are eliminated from the NFC North race this veteran team will have little interest here. CHI is 1-4-1 ATS in their final road game. CHI could have playoff need here if they beat GB on MNF & the Vikings stumbled vs ATL. The schedule offsets each other here as HOU won’t get back until late Mon after travelling to OAK vs the Bears’ short week. HOU is more than capable of putting up the big yards as they avg 23 ppg & 398 ypg vs non-div foes prior to LW but they keep shooting themselves in the foot due to TO’s (-10). HOU has a great matchup with WR’s Johnson (103 rec 13.7) & Walters (57 rec 5.1) vs a depleted CHI secondary that is 27th in pass defense but has a 4-8 ratio in its L4 games prior to MNF. CHI has been able to lock down the run game TY (93 ypg 3.5) & have a 5-8 TD/Int ratio on the road. CHI will try to lean on RB Forte who avgs 110 ypg (4.6) yds from scrimmage & is the #1 rusher & receiver for the team. We’ll call for the Texans to win by 10 in a higher scoring game due to their solid offense & improving home edge.
NEW ORLEANS 30 Carolina 27 - The Panthers’ interest in this game will be determined by the results of the Giants game. The Panthers do have to finish the season on a B2B road trip & may be slowed with this being their 4th road game in 6 weeks. They are currently 3-0 ATS away vs losing teams & 0-3 ATS away vs winning teams. The NFC South has been dominated by the home team as they are 11-0 SU & 9-1-1 ATS but the Panthers have now covered 7 straight when visiting the Super Dome. CAR offense has been on a run as they’ve avg’d 32 ppg the L5W as RB Williams has avg’d 113 ypg (6.7) in that span while Stewart has added 74 ypg (6.7) ypc with a pair of 100+ yd games. The Saints had allowed 6 straight teams to rush for 100+ yds before holding ATL to 99 yds (3.3) & CHI to 55 yds (2.8). NO has been 2 completely different teams at home vs on the road. They are 6-1 SU & ATS at home as QB Brees in 28 completing 69% with a 19-4 ratio but they are 1-6 SU away with Brees having a 9-12 ratio. They’ve avg’d 33 ppg at home & have not been held to under 24 pts & they are a good match vs a CAR defense which allowed a shocking 405 ypg the L3W. We’ll call for a 3 point win & if Vegas overcompensates for the home edge we’ll grab the value.
ATLANTA 38 St Louis 17 - The Falcons could be playing for a Wild Card spot here & if not will want to keep their momentum going into the offseason with a win here. The Rams have long packed their bags & will potentially have new ownership in the offseason. ATL is 5-0 SU & ATS TY vs teams with a losing record with a 29-15 avg score. ATL has a 405-259 yd edge with Ryan passing for 195 ypg (70%) with an 8-1 ratio. Even more impressive has been the ability of the Falcons to run at will with all 5 games garnering at least 141 yds with a 215-97 ypg avg. STL is 1-8 SU & 3-6 ATS vs foes with a winning record TY losing by an avg score of 30-12. They have been outgained 392-253 with Bulger passing for 189 ypg (52%) with a 6-14 ratio. The Rams #20 pass defense is allowing 250 ypg (65%) with a 13-6 ratio in those games. ATL has momentum, potential playoff need, a tenacious coach in Mike Smith who won’t let the team slump even if they are out of the hunt & the Falcons are the play despite what will be an inflated line.
Kansas City 20 CINCINNATI 17 - The only thing this game will be deciding is draft slotting come April. While KC is 1-6 SU they are 5-2 ATS on the road TY. They had a disheartening loss to SD 2 Wks ago in a game they led from start to the final plays & LW hosted MIA. HC Edwards wants to win every game & in the L2Y’s KC has covered their season finale. CIN is off a win vs WAS & a trip to CLE. The Bengals #32 offense has put up putrid numbers all season. In the 10 games that QB Fitzpatrick has started for the injured Palmer CIN has avg’d 237 ypg inc a high of 312 yds vs JAX. Their top point total was 21 pts & they’ve been held to 14 or under 8 of 10 games. It will be an interesting matchup against a KC defense that has allowed 350+ yards in EVERY game since the opener with the exception of their trip to OAK. We’ll call for KC to win by a FG & if it applies CIN is 0-4 ATS as a HF losing 3 of those outright.
INDIANAPOLIS 20 Tennessee 13 - If the Titans beat the Steelers LW then they will have the #1 seed wrapped up & will possibly rest players. LY Dungy rested his players & basically let the Titans walk into the playoffs & Fisher may be inclined to return the favor here. IND owns tiebreakers over BAL & NE & if they are locked into the #5 seed they may opt to rest their own players as they may have to travel to a potential cold weather site next week. TEN beat IND 31-21 as a 4 pt HF in the 1st meeting on MNF & has covered 5 straight. Dungy is 0-6 ATS in his final game of the year with IND. IND had a 14-6 lead late in the 3Q when TEN scored 25 unanswered points before giving up a garbage time TD drive late 4Q. Manning had 2 ints & wasn’t able to find a rhythm as TEN had 4 scoring drives of 9 or more plays giving them a 8:28 TOP edge. TEN is 6-2 ATS away in div play. IND continues to give up big yards on the ground (127 ypg 4.2) & are only 2-5 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium TY. The Colts are playing to their potential avg 26 ppg L6W but without knowing the full playoff situation for both teams we’ll call for the Colts by 7 in a lower scoring game.
PITTSBURGH 34 Cleveland 3 - The Steelers beat the Browns 10-6 back in Wk 2 on SNF but didn’t cover as a 6 pt AF moving to 10-0 SU & 7-2-1 ATS vs CLE. The weather leveled the playing field here with winds of 40-60 mph but Roethlisberger was on the mark with 179 yds (65%) & a 1-0 ratio. PIT only had a 73 yd edge but made 2 ints one of which set up a 12 play 70 yd drive & another in the EZ on the last play of the 1H ending a 14 play 71 yd drive by CLE. PIT has big advantages statistically with the #24 & #1 units (+7 TO’s) vs CLE’s #29 & #26 units (+8 TO’s) who will be starting #3 QB Dorsey here. PIT has outgained foes 304-251 at home TY (3-4 ATS) with a 22-16 avg score. CLE will be worn out after playing TEN, PHI on MNF, what’s expected to be Crennel’s final HG vs CIN & now has to take on a div foe that has a track record of piling it up on them (41-0 win as 6.5 pt AF late 2005). While CLE will want to send Crennell off with an upset win the Browns have one of the slowest LB units in the NFL which accounts for their #30 pass rush & #28 rush def (4.5 ypc), lack consistency at WR/TE & are at too much of a disadvantage with Dorsey to be a serious threat.
NY JETS 27 Miami 17 - Depending on LW’s results this could decide who wins the AFC East & it wouldn’t be a surprise to see it flexed to the SNF game especially if the 2nd Wild Card spot is up in the air. After beating NE & TEN the Jets started reading their own press clippings & after losses to DEN & SF scrambled to remain ahead in the AFC East. The Jets beat the Dolphins 20-14 as a 3 pt AF in the opener. MIA was still trying to get its chemistry together after turning over half of the 2007 roster & was down 20-7 going into the 3Q. MIA outgained NY 169-15 in the 4Q & was in position to win the game as they drove down to the Jets 18 when Pennington was int 8 yds into the EZ. MIA is 6-3 ATS as a dog TY. The Jets are 0-5-1 ATS hosting a div foe. MIA is an excellent example of TO’s = Turnaround as LY they had 29 giveaways & allowed 27.3 ppg. TY they have 10 giveaways & are allowing just 19.2 ppg. Favre finds a way to win these games & he’ll do so again.
New England 28 BUFFALO 10 - The Patriots are 15-1 SU & 12-4 ATS vs the Bills as they beat them 20-10 as 3.5 pt HF TY. NE had a 370-168 yd edge as #4 RB Green-Ellis outrushed BUF 105 (4.0) to 60 (3.3). NE dominated so completely they ran a 19 play 92 yd drive for a TD & had a 78-43 edge in offensive plays. NE is 14-3 ATS away vs a div foe. BUF is 3-7 ATS at home vs a div foe. Both teams have had to deal with several key defensive injuries & NE has one of the slower defenses in the NFL. A lot was expected out of BUF after they jumped out to a 5-1 start with the only loss coming when Edwards (238 ypg 69% 5-2 in those 5 games) was KO’d with a concussion vs ARZ. Since then he’s been hampered by a groin injury, the lack of a healthy #2 WR to take the pressure off WR Evans, bad OL play that failed to get RB Lynch (just 3 100 yd gms TY) game on track & only has 195 ypg (63%) with a 5-8 ratio in his L6 starts (1-5 SU & ATS). NE has used the same basic building template with Cassel who is 5-3 SU & 5-5 ATS since mid-Oct passing for 268 ypg (64%) with an 11-6 ratio despite an OL that has allowed 45 sacks TY (28th). NE is very likely going to have playoff need here & with Belichick doing one of his best coaching jobs in years (an aging & injured defense & an offense without Brady) NE is the play.
ARIZONA 31 Seattle 17 - The Mike Holmgren era comes to a close after winning 5 NFC West Titles & taking the team to SB 40. This game also marks a significant transition of power in the NFC West. Whisenhunt
will likely be the senior coach in the division for 2009 in a situation similar to Lovie Smith & the 2006 Bears who used a weak division as a springboard to SB 41. ARZ beat SEA 26-20 as a 3 pt AF earlier & have covered 3 of the L4. The Cardinals are 6-1 ATS vs foes with a losing record TY while SEA’s only wins have been vs STL & SF in Singletary’s 1st game as HC. ARZ locked up the NFC West 4 Wks ago & it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Matt Leinart play half of the game here with the Cardinals hosting their 1st playoff game since 1947 next week. SEA will have played the L3 games with just 4 of their opening day starters on the OL & it’s unknown if they will risk Hasselbeck (herniated disk) here. SEA could also be spent here after an emotional farewell game in Qwest Field LW. After losing to MIN & potentially to NE LW the Cardinals will need to go into the playoffs with momentum & look for Whiz to make his team go out & get a confidence building win here & pull starters late with a big lead.
SAN DIEGO 30 Denver 20 - SD is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS vs DEN losing 39-38 as a 1 pt AD back in Wk 2 where a horrible officiating call cost them the game. DEN had driven down to the SD 1 with 1:17 left when Cutler fumbled the ball as he dropped back to pass. SD recovered the ball but the referee blew an early whistle ruling it an incomplete pass. Replays clearly showed that it was a fumble but couldn’t overturn the decision. The officials spotted the ball where SD recovered the fumble & 2 plays later Cutler threw a 4 yd TD followed by a 2 pt conversion to go ahead & held off SD’s final drive. While this is Tomlinson’s worst career year (66 ypg 3.6) he does very well at home vs DEN avg 121 ypg (4.9) with 10 rush TD’s vs 55 ypg (3.5) with 5 TD’s in DEN. SD’s #31 pass defense (23-11 ratio) & #26 pass rush (25 sacks TY vs 42 LY) are poor matchups vs DEN’s #3 pass offense under Cutler who has only been sacked 8 times TY!! SD has lost 7 games by 7 or less TY. DEN could be resting players for next week’s Wild Card matchup especially with the slate of injuries they have endured at RB & in the back 7 on defense. SD will be treating this as their playoff game & play inspired ball here while going into the offseason to reevaluate the roster.
3* Bears/Texans OVER
3* Rams/Falcons OVER
3* Jaguars/Ravens UNDER
2* Panthers/Saints OVER
2* Redskins/49ers UNDER
MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK
NFL
AWESOME ANGLE OF THE WEEK:
PLAY ON any NFL winning team with same-season division revenge
at home in their last game of the season if they are off a SU favorite loss.
Play On
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
ATS W-L Record Since 1980: 14-3(82%)
5* BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over Dallas by 14
It’s not often you’ll fi nd a winning team as a small underdog in a ‘winand-
you’re-in’ game but such is the case in this contest. Obviously the
linemaker and the betting public are not nearly as enthralled with the
Cowboys as is Jerry Jones. Perhaps it has something to do with Dallas’
7-21 SU and 6-22 ATS mark on the road in regular season games from
December out, including 0-10 ATS when facing an opponent with
a win percentage of greater than .615. Or maybe it’s Wade Phillips’
11-19 SU and 9-19-2 ATS career mark from Game Fourteen out,
including 1-6 SU and 0-6-1 ATS when going into division revenge.
Yes, the Eagles are going to need a miracle to make the playoffs but
there is no better solace for a season ruined than to reduce to rubble
the season of a hated division rival. With our AWESOME ANGLE (see
page 2) at work here today, expect nothing less than the best from
Andy Reid and his troops. And down goes Dallas!
4* BEST BET
NEW ORLEANS over Carolina by 10
Yet another road favorite with the weight of the world on their
shoulders taking on a team that is playing its best ball of the season –
and we’re there. Series history afi cionados will side with the Panthers,
citing a powerful 13-1 ATS mark. Us, we’ll point to the fact that the
host was favored in ten of those contests. Instead, we’ll opt for form
over function, citing the Saints’ 7-0 ITS (in The Stats) mark since their
Bye Week in November. Following last week’s heartbreaking loss to
the Giants in New York, Carolina must now try and regroup while
overcoming a hurdle they’ve tripped over with regularity in the past –
namely chalk against formidable opposition. That’s confi rmed by the
Cats’ 4-9-1 ATS mark under John Fox as a favorite against greater than
.450 opposition off a SU and ATS win, including 1-7-1 ATS when going
into revenge. With that, we’ll sink our teeth into a juicy Bourbon
Street steak… rare, please.
3* BEST BET
ARIZONA over Seattle by 14
If ever team was in need of a fix, it’s the Cardinals. After clinching
a playoff ticket 5 weeks ago they’ve proceeded to go right in the
toilet, fl ushing away 4 of their last 5 games both SU and ATS. Worse,
they allowed 35 or more points in the 4 losses. There’s nothing like
a loser that suddenly has the look of a winner to stop the bleeding.
The Seahawks got the win they wanted last week for outgoing
coach Mike Holmgren when they grounded Bret Favre and the Jets.
Unfortunately, Holmgren is just 2-11 ATS in his career when playing
with division revenge off back-to-back wins. On the reverse, Arizona
is 6-0 ATS off back-to-back SU and ATS losses when facing a division
foe off back-to-back wins. Our powerful database chips in with this
nugget: Play On any playoff team in their fi nal game of the season if
they are off back-to-back defeats. That’s because these teams are 17-3
ATS when taking on a sub .600 opponent. Tourniquet applied
TAMPA BAY over Oakland by 10
The strength of NFC South Division home teams (25-3 SU and 19-8-1 ATS
this season) will be put to the test this Sunday beginning with this contest.
The Bucs were purring along nicely a month ago, riding a 4-game win streak
while sitting atop the South Division. Then along came the Exxon Valdez
and – bam! – just like that they crashed and have been leaking oil ever since.
They enter today’s must-win affair having been outgained in each of their
last four games. Safe to say, laying doubles with a pirate ship that’s been
under siege by destroyers is not our cup of tea. Especially when the price to
play has been over-adjusted because of the need. Sure, Tampa may be 22-3
ATS as favorites in games off a SU favorite loss but the fact of the matter
is the Bucs have NEVER laid more than 13 points in their franchise history!
The Raiders may not be much but they have not quit. Oh yeah, they’ve been
installed as dogs of more than 11 points only once in season fi nales. They
won the game, 21-20, as 14.5-point puppies. Hold the oil.
GREEN BAY over Detroit by 3
Like the Big E once said, “It’s now or never” for the lowly Lions as they
look to avoid going down as the worst team in NFL history. To dodge that
ugly moniker they’ll need to piece together an old-fashioned upset. Good
news if you’re a Lion lover: winless road dogs during the 2nd half of the
season are 15-3 ATS the last 22 years, while managing to win 7 of the games
straight-up. Bad news is Green Bay’s success in this series (5-0 SU and ATS last
fi ve meetings). That was then and this is now, however. The Pack’s 1-9 ATS
mark as a favorite in the 2nd of back-to-back division games against a foe
off back-to-back losses is more to our liking. And at the wire it’s… Green Bay
by a thin slice of cheese
MINNESOTA over NY Giants by 3
Diffi cult game to get a gauge on, considering the Giants clinched the No.
1 seed in the NFC with last week’s stirring overtime win against Carolina
and the Vikings need a victory today in order to gain a possible playoff
slot. Thus, this becomes another of those ‘Coaches Decision’ contests;
namely, how much playing time Tom Coughlin will opt to give his regulars
in a game that means little-to-nothing from their perspective. Not that
it matters to Coughlin. He’s likely more concerned about closing out the
season with positive momentum in defense of the Super Bowl trophy.
Meanwhile, the Vikings may have choked last week against the Falcons
but they have won the stats in each of their last 4 games. As much as we’d
love to take a bite of this road warrior, we’ll acknowledge Big Blue’s 2-13
ATS log against non-division NFC teams off SU favorite losses and bite our
tongue instead.
HOUSTON over Chicago by 3
Don’t you just love it? Another home dog with an opportunity to play
spoiler and we’re buying in. To make a case for the Texans, the fi rst
thing you need to do is ditch last week’s loss at Oakland. They were in a
monumental fl at spot off back-to-back upset wins and they played like it.
Today they return home looking to match last year’s 8-8 effort with a win
today knowing they are 7-1 ATS off a loss as a host in December. On the
other side of the coin, Chicago is 1-10 ATS on the road off back-to-back
wins in December. The bottom line is this home dog IS the better team.
Bye, bye Bears
ATLANTA over St. Louis by 10
A tip of the hat is in order to Mike Smith and his Falcons. Not only did they
put the Michael Vick era to sleep, they ushered in the Matt Ryan express in
dramatic fashion going from 4 wins to the playoffs in one fell swoop. And
because the NFC South Division crown is on the line, Atlanta – like Tampa
Bay – is laying more points than ever in their franchise history as well. Aside
from bringing a horrifi c 0-12 ATS log at home in games off back-to-back
victories into this battle, the Rams just happen to be playing arguably their
best ball of the season, picking up stat wins in each of their last two losses.
Take it if you play it.
CINCINNATI over Kansas City by 6
The curtain closes on both of these disappointing teams and perhaps their
coaches, too, in this who-cares fi nale at Paul Brown Stadium. Unlike Herm
Edwards and the Chiefs, the Bengals at least have a pulse as they enter
today’s fray off back-to-back upset wins. They closed out last year in similar
fashion with wins and covers in each of their fi nal two games. Our database
reminds us that season-ending matchups involving a pair of losing teams has
seen the host go 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS when facing a non-division foe off
a loss of 7 or more points. That and the fact that a win likely saves Marvin
Lewis’ job for another year is enough of an edge for us. So long, Herm.
BALTIMORE over Jacksonville by 10
Another ‘win-and-you’re-in’ proposition fi nds the Ravens hosting the
Jaguars in a game that once again has been padded by the linemaker. Enter
Jack Del Rio, a master at spoiling other people’s parties where he is 19-
10 ATS as a dog in non-division games, winning more often than he’s lost
(15-14 SU on the fi eld). Del Rio is also 5-0 ATS in his career as a dog of
more than 8 points. Baltimore looks to improve to 4-0 SU and ATS in Last
Home Games knowing they are 10-1 SU and ATS this season against sub
.667 opposition, a far cry from their 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS mark against .667 or
greater competition. Considering this is the highest impost the Black Birds
have gone up against this season, we’ll back Jack.
INDIANAPOLIS over Tennessee by 3
Here we go again. Tony Dungy, with a playoff ticket in his back pocket,
taking the fi eld with backups in starters’ roles. What to do, you ask? In
examining Dungy’s M.O. it’s startling to fi nd that since coming to the Colts
he’s been a virtual ‘no-show’ during the fi nal two games of the regular
season, going 7-8 SU and 2-11 ATS, including 0-6 ATS in LHG’s (Last Home
Games). Yikes. Upon further examination, Dungy is actually 4-2 SU in those
same LHG’s and he’s on a 9-3 SU and 10-2 ATS run as a home dog. While
Titans’ boss Jeff Fisher contends he will play his starters, the question is for
how long? Tennessee has absolutely nothing to gain in this game (other
than momentum for the playoffs) and besides, road favorites off SU home
dog wins are a long-time losing proposition, especially in season fi nales (3-9
ATS). Toss in the ‘after-Tomlin’ factor (teams are 8-22 ATS after facing Mike
Tomlin’s Steelers) and we’ll kick our heels with the Colts here today.
PITTSBURGH over Cleveland by 11
Poor Romeo. No coach was hit harder with injuries than he was this year.
Down to a 4th string starting QB (Bruce Gradkowski, signed just three
weeks ago), he must take on the Steelers who fi gure to be in a surly mood
following last week’s streak-breaking loss at Tennessee. Despite an offense
that has not topped 10 points in any of its recent 5-game losing streak,
the Brownies bring decent numbers into this fray where they are 8-0 ATS
in games off a SU and ATS loss while also 7-0 ATS off a division loss versus
a division opponent off a loss. Pittsburgh eked out a 10-6 win in the fi rst
meeting at the Dawg Pound in Game Two this season. With a week off to
prepare for the playoffs, we can’t see them getting pumped up for this
Brownie today.
NY JETS over Miami by 6
These two teams opened the 2008 campaign against one another in Miami
where the Jets emerged victorious, 20-14. A week later, the Dolphins
dropped a 31-10 decision at Arizona and it appeared they would have
trouble matching last year’s 1-win effort. Hardly. Since then the Fish have
won ten of their last thirteen games to become the fi rst team in NFL history
to go from 1-win to-10-wins the next season. The catalyst has been QB
Chad Pennington who, ironically, was acquired from the Jets immediately
after they inked Bret Favre to a contract. Hence, this becomes ‘Pennington’s
revenge’ with the winner advancing on to the playoffs. Before hanging
with Chad it should be noted that Miami is just 3-13 ATS on the road from
Game Thirteen out against .500 or greater opponents. They will also be
playing their 4th road game in the past 5 weeks, never a good omen for
teams taking on a division opponent that is off a SU favorite loss. That’s
because these teams are just 2-12 SU and 3-11 ATS since 1980, including 0-6
SU and ATS when the tired traveler is off a win. With the Flyboys now 20-2-1
ATS when playing off a loss in this series, look for the clock to strike 10 on
Miami’s magical season.
New England over BUFFALO by 3
Pats look to claim a playoff berth with a win here and a little help from their
friends (loses by Baltimore or Miami). And because it’s Bill Belichick playing
with need we once again have a line that is overly infl ated (Pats laid 3.5
at home to the Bills in November). The fi rst number that jumps out is New
England’s 20-3-1 ATS mark in the 2nd meeting of the season in this series.
The other that catches our fancy, though, is Buffi e’s 6-0 ATS mark as a dog
in games off an upset win. That ties nicely into the Bills’ 8-3 SU and 8-2-1
ATS record as a home dog against opponents off a SU and ATS win when
Buffalo owns a win percentage of .400 or more (including a perfect 4-0 SU
and ATS against division rivals). The pressure is on the Pats. Our hard-earned
money is on the Bills.
SAN FRANCISCO over Washington by 6
A pair of rookie head coaches close out the 2008 season off division wins
last week. One of them (Jim Zorn) will surely be back next season. The other
(Mike Singletary) is playing for his coaching life. The Redskins picked up a
meaningful win over the Eagles last week, thus assuring themselves of a
.500 season. The consequence of that result, however, is the nasty 1-7 ATS
mark they own in road games off an Eagles win. A 4th win in the Niners’
fi nal 5 games of the season should get Iron Mike his coach’s pass. We like
his chances.
SAN DIEGO over Denver by 3
It’s hard to fathom that the Chargers, who for all intents and purposes
appeared dead in the water four weeks ago at 4-8 on the season, could win
this game and make it back to the playoffs. Such is the case as they ride a
3-game win streak into this revenge rematch with the Broncos, who beat
them 39-38 in a highly controversial win in Denver back in Week Two. The
immediate knee-jerk would be to jump on the revitalized Bolts but we never
jerk into anything. For openers, San Diego is 5-3 SU this season against .500
or less opposition but only 2-5 SU versus teams with a winning record. They
are also 0-6 ATS in LHG’s against .466 or greater opponents. Denver checks
in with a glossy 16-3 ATS ledger off back-to-back losses when facing a .600
or less opponent. Too many points in a game of this magnitude to pass up.
TOTALS:
3*Bengals UNDER
4*Cardinals OVER
5*Ravens UNDER
Nelly's Greensheet
This Issue of the newsletter was published on Friday, December 19th,
and did not have the results of the Week 16 match-ups as holiday mail
delays forced us to release this issue early. The predictions and writeups
will rely more heavily on past trends and will not be able to factor in
current motivation based on playoff positioning and potential. Any key
injuries from Week 16 and the lines for this week will also not be known.
SUNDAY, DECEMBER 28, 2008
TAMPA BAY (NL) Oakland 12:00 PM
This will likely still be a critical game for Tampa Bay in any possible
scenario and is a much more favorable situation as Oakland faced cross
country travel and a game and has no meaningful motivation. Bucs
Coach Gruden used to coach at Oakland before exiting and these teams
met in the Super Bowl in Gruden’s first year at Tampa Bay. There may
be a rift between Raiders owner Al Davis and Gruden but few of players
were around when that drama unfolded. The Bucs have been perfect in
the first six home games and can deliver another big win. BUCS BY 17
GREEN BAY (NL) Detroit 12:00 PM
This has the potential to be one of the most intriguing games of the week
if the Lions lose to New Orleans in Week 16. Green Bay faces a
meaningful rivalry game Monday night so this will be a short week for the
Packers and Green Bay’s defensive deficiencies could give a Lions
offense that has shown some signs of promise a chance. There will be
some pressure on Green Bay and in a season that has gone wrong
avoiding embarrassment will be a bigger motivator for the Lions than for
the Packers. PACKERS BY 3
PHILADELPHIA (NL) Dallas 12:00 PM
Dallas has generally struggled in this series in the last decade and these
teams played a classic Monday night game earlier in the year that Dallas
eventually won in a high scoring shootout. Even if the Eagles playoff
prospects look grim this will be a huge game for the Eagles given some
of the side plots and should be a competitive game . Dallas will likely be
overvalued if they are able to win against Baltimore. EAGLES BY 7
MINNESOTA (NL) NY Giants 12:00 PM
Despite being locked into its playoff spot in week 17 last season, the
Giants played hard and gave then 15-0 New England a heck of a
challenge heading into the playoffs. Few expected those teams would
again meet in the Super Bowl but the Giants are not likely to sit out this
game and rest starters other than those on the mend. Minnesota could
be locked into a playoff spot and division title and either way this is a bad
situation for the Vikings and the Giants may look for revenge after an
ugly loss at home to Minnesota last year. GIANTS BY 10
HOUSTON (NL) Chicago 12:00 PM
The Texans have been playing great late season ball and even if the
NFC North is still unsettled this could be a tough match-up for the Bears.
Houston has shut down quality running teams in recent weeks as the
defense has stepped up in the second half of the season. Houston will
look to finish strong again and take some momentum into a promising
2009 season despite falling short this year. TEXANS BY 13
Carolina (NL) NEW ORLEANS 12:00 PM
The Saints will not be in the playoffs but this is still a meaningful division
game and QB Brees could be chasing the NFL passing record. Look for
the Saints to air it out with injuries in the running game and the Panthers
fate will be decided in the Giants game in week 16 although losing the
final two could potentially drop Carolina considerably. The status of this
game needs to see what happens in week 16 but either way look for the
Saints to play hard and score points. SAINTS BY 7
ATLANTA (NL) St. Louis 12:00 PM
Atlanta has a favorable closing match-up but it may not be enough if the
Falcons lose in Minnesota. Even if the playoff chances require help the
young Falcons squad is not likely to mail in a game late in the year and
St. Louis has mailed in much of the season. The Falcons have been a
very strong home team this season as well. FALCONS BY 21
CINCINNATI (NL) Kansas City 12:00 PM
The Bengals have given several competitive efforts at home this season
in recent weeks so despite the rough season there has been a solid
effort and QB Fitzpatrick will be playing for a possible future opportunity.
Kansas City has shown some life on offense but the defense has been
much more promising for Cincinnati. Look for the Bengals to close the
year on a positive note. BENGALS BY 6
BALTIMORE (NL) Jacksonville 12:00 PM
Despite the poor results for the Jaguars, the team played hard in its final
home game only to surrender another lead and come up with another
loss. The Jaguars have good numbers as underdogs but Baltimore has
been an exceptional home favorite in recent years and could potentially
have a lot on the line in this game. Baltimore’s defense will not let up
and the Jaguars seem to find ways to lose. RAVENS BY 10
Tennessee (NL) INDIANAPOLIS 12:00 PM
The Titans have this division locked up with the tiebreaker even if the
Titans lose to Pittsburgh and lose this game to send both teams into the
playoffs at 12-4. Both teams should be resting here although the Titans
could still be playing for the top seed in the AFC. Expect to see Jim
Sorgi for the Colts as Indianapolis would have potential tie-breaker
edges over Baltimore and New England. TITANS BY 10
PITTSBURGH (NL) Cleveland 12:00 PM
The Steelers/Titans game will determine whether this game means
anything for the Steelers or a protected seed is locked up. Cleveland
played the Steelers tough early in the year with a 10-6 loss at home and
this division game will mean a little more to the Browns in a season that
has gone poorly. The status of many players and the coaching staff is in
question for the Browns so expecting a solid effort is probably unrealistic
as there will be distractions. Pittsburgh can find ways to produce a big
margin even if the offense is not going 100 percent. STEELERS BY 17
NEW YORK JETS (NL) Miami 12:00 PM
This game could mean a great deal should both teams have the same
result in week 16. In the first meeting that opened the NFL season the
Jets squeaked out a very narrow win but Miami has been playing better
ball late in the year and has developed a great ability to win close games
and control the ball and the clock. There will be a lot more pressure on
the Jets and this is a franchise that has not exactly delivered in many big
games like this situation. DOLPHINS BY 4
New England (NL) BUFFALO 12:00 PM
This will be far from a freebie for the Patriots as the Bills would love to
knock New England out of the playoff picture. Buffalo has had a lot of
things go wrong this season but several games could have gone the
other way and kept the Bills in the playoff mix. Buffalo maintains a tough
home field, particularly late in the year and these teams played a tight
game earlier in the year that the Bills will hope to redeem. Buffalo is a
dangerous team as a spoiler and New England has had several games
that they have underperformed in. PATS BY 1
ARIZONA (NL) Seattle 3:15 PM
The Cardinals are locked into their playoff spot and this game could be a
bit of a changing of the guard as Arizona takes over the NFC West from
perennial West champion Seattle. This also could be an emotional final
game for Coach Holmgren in what has been a very disappointing
season. The send-off may have been more important in his last home
game and the Cardinals could try to take some momentum into the
playoffs and build confidence after a few bad losses. CARDS BY 10
SAN FRANCISCO (NL) Washington 3:15 PM
The 49ers might have had a much more competitive team if some of the
changes had been made earlier in the season as San Francisco let
several games get away from them. With Hill at QB the 49ers have been
a more reliable offense but the injury to RB Gore has really hurt the
offensive balance. The San Francisco defense has been capable in
recent weeks and Washington will have nothing to play for and faces a
cross country trip following a division game. The coaching staff has been
given a tentative vote of confidence but there is a lot of uncertainty with
the Redskins and a strong effort is hard to expect.
SAN DIEGO (NL) Denver 3:15 PM
This could be a huge game or a complete dud as a Charger win and a
Denver loss means the playoffs start with this elimination game. The first
meeting of the season was an entertaining game that became
memorable for the wrong reasons but this could be another great matchup.
San Diego faces a tough travel spot playing out East in Tampa Bay
while the pressure will be heavy on the Broncos should they fall into this
do or die situation despite being handed a comfortable division lead for
most of the season. CHARGERS BY 6
THE MAX
Systems & Strategies
System from Dave Fobare,
Hot But Just OK: In the final regular season game, play against any NFL team with a record less than 0.666 and off 3+ spread wins. Pointspread Record Since 1983: 36-22 (60.3%)
This week’s application: Arizona Cardinals (play against Seattle Seahawks)
NFL System from Nelly’s Sportsline,
Fading Favorite: Play against any NFL team in the final game of the season if they scored 40 or more points in their previous game
Pointspread Record Since 1981: 22-13 (62.8%)
This week’s application: Buffalo Bills (play against New England Patriots), Carolina Panthers (play against New Orleans Saints), Denver Broncos (play against San Diego Chargers), if a team scores 40+ on Monday night play against them.
NFL System from Marc Lawrence, Lights Out: Play against any NFL regular season Game Sixteen road favorite off a non-division win of 17 or more points. Pointspread Record since 1980: 32-12 (73%)
This week’s application: Buffalo Bills (play against New England Patriots)
NFL
Sunday, December 28th, 2008
@Eagles (-1½) over Cowboys
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Coming off of that tough loss at Washington, the Eagles need some serious help to make the postseason. They must not only win this game, but also need Oakland to upset Tampa and Chicago to lose one of their last two games. Dallas, on the other hand just has to win to get in. Both teams would be in much better shape had they been able to win as 5-point favorites this past weekend, but that didn’t happen. The scoreboard at Lincoln Financial Field will most likely be shut off, so that Philly can simply focus on what they can control, instead of what’s going on in Tampa and Houston.Before the Baltimore loss, the Cowboys were playing very well with a good loss at Pittsburgh and an impressive win over the Giants. The defense is now healthy, and had been carrying the team before giving up two big TD runs in the final minutes to Baltimore’s Willis McGahee and Jameel Mclain. Those two runs signify that this may be a tired team right now, and coming off of physical wars with Pittsburgh, the Giants, and Baltimore in their last 3 games, that could definitely be the case.Philly fits a couple of late season home revenge systems that I use (lost 37-41 in Dallas early on), and they actually have a better offense (8th in the league) and defenses (3rd) than the Cowboys, who are very impressive statistically themselves (9th and 8th,). Whether they win or lose this game, there is a chance that Donovan McNabb and Andy Reed are both on their way out of town, and I expect the Eagles to offer a peek performance in possibly their last home game. Today’s opponent helps ensure that effort, as this team could play Dallas in a training camp scrimmage and they would do everything possible to whip T.O. and the Cowboys. Even if the Eagles don’t get the help they need from other teams on Sunday, their veterans will put forth a huge effort here. Dallas and Tony Romo still have to prove that to me that, despite all of their talent, they can win this type of game in the NFL. Jimmy Johnson’s blitzes will be coming from everywhere, and Romo continues to struggle when faced with pressure. The Eagles are 44-28-1 ATS when playing with revenge under Reid, and they will get their today against their hated rival. Philly by 7
Chiefs (+3½) over @Bengals
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare The Chiefs may be 2-22 in their last 24 games, but over the 2nd half of the 2008 season they have been a pretty competitive team. The positive change took place before game 7 against the Jets: Herm Edwards approved a change in offense to a spread-based scheme close to what 2nd year QB Tyler Thigpen ran in college at Coastal Carolina. The results were immediate. Since then Kansas City is 6-3 ATS, and the offense is averaging 23 points per game on a robust 5.8 yards per play. Last Sunday in a 38-
31 home loss to the resurgent Dolphins Thigpen & Co racked up 492 yards of offense, the most Miami has given up all year.The Bengals do not have the same fortune at quarterback. Ryan Fitzpatrick improved somewhat as the season progressed, but in last week's 14-0 win over Cleveland the play calling indicated quite strongly just what coach Marvin Lewis and his staff think of their young QB. In 55 offensive snaps Fitzpatrick was allowed to throw the ball just nine times. Now if Fitzpatrick was handing the ball off to one of the NFL's better runners the paucity of passes would be reasonable. But the Bengals gave the ball 38 times to the ex-Bears RB Cedric Benson, who has a well-deserved reputation as a soft back. I have very little tech on this game, but what I do have I like a lot - a 224-133 ATS statistical indicator favoring the Chiefs. I started tracking this system in 2007, and it has piled up an impressive 28-10 ATS mark including 14-6 this year. Both organizations face a winter of discontent. Marvin Lewis may well be shown the door in Cincinnati. Longtime Chiefs' GM Carl Peterson handed in his resignation last week, and his replacement will likely want to hire a new coach. But the most important man the Chiefs have is a young quarterback who can give his teammates hope in a meaningless final game. Ryan Fitzpatrick can't do the same for the Bengals. Take the points. Kansas City by 4.
Dolphins (+ 2 ½) over @Jets
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
How fitting is it that the AFC East title comes down to this game? Back in August, the Jets made a decision that may ultimately come back and bite them in the ass. Chad Pennington was shown the exit in order to make way for Brett Favre. But that move certainly doesn’t look too good now. Pennington has been the better quarterback, especially coming down the stretch. As we’ve mentioned over the last two weeks, Favre is showing his age. And on Sunday in Seattle, Favre once again played awful. He completed just 58.1% (18-31) of his passes for 187 yards while throwing two interceptions. The Jets are just 1-3 straight-up over the last four weeks because Favre has given them terrible play at quarterback. Over that time, Favre went 78-135 (57.8%) while averaging a measly 195 passing yards per game. He threw just one touchdown pass and six interceptions. It’s of no surprise that the Jets are 0-4 against the spread over that time, so why not play against them once again here.Miami is getting much better quarterback play from Pennington. He is the NFL’s second rated signal caller with a 96.4 passer rating. He has a 17 to 7 touchdown to interception ratio while throwing for over 3,400 yards, averaging 7.7 yards per pass play. To compare, Brett Favre is the 18th rated QB with an 84 passer rating, and he leads the league with 19 interceptions. While there’s no comparison between Favre and Pennington based on career numbers, there’s no question that Pennington is much better right now. And Pennington will be playing with a chip on his shoulder here. "Well, if you rehash it and think about it, getting released definitely hurts,'' Pennington said. ”You're on a team for a long time, and it's always one for all and all for one, and one day you realize they don't want you anymore after being on that team for so long. There's an emotional part to football and a business part, and the emotional part hurts, but I understand the business part. But instead of throwing a pity party about it, I choose to go play football and move on.''These two teams are at opposite ends of the confidence meter. The New York fans and media are calling for Mangini’s head while wishing they kept Pennington. Things in Miami are positive and upbeat. The Dolphins have great trust in each other, and their team chemistry is good. ''It's really impressive how each side of the ball picks up the other side depending how the games go,'' tight end Anthony Fasano said. ''Everyone knows where we were last season,'' running back Ronnie Brown said. “Just to be able to turn it around and accomplish how much we've accomplished so far. But we're not done yet. Obviously, we have an opportunity ahead of us. And we want to be able to ride it out.'' The Jets beat the Dolphins in Week 1, but Miami gets the last laugh here and wins the AFC East. Dolphins by 3.
Cardinals (-4½) over Seahawks
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Cards home/road differential continues. Sometimes they look terrific. Other times, positively dreadful. In Week 14 they were terrific. They clinched their division and had banners, fireworks, the whole celebration. And since then, with nothing to play for, they’ve played like a team with nothing to play for. They got crushed by the Vikings, so they made all the requisite comments about needing to show that they’re a tough playoff team…blah, blah, blah. And the result? Just got mauled. It was men against boys in a 47-7 loss.
Now obviously the Cardinals had some excuses. They had nothing to play for, while the Patriots did. The franchise hadn’t played in the snow in 25 years and even had a couple of players who had never seen snow. The Patriots are now 11-0 in snow games in Foxborough. But the totality of the domination was frightening. New England scored on 9 of their first 10 drives. Arizona trailed 31-0 at the half (and 38-0 after the first play of the second half) after trailing 28-0 at the half the previous week. After three quarters the Patriots were outgaining the Cardinals 470-50. It was horrendously ugly.So now the Cards are saying all the requisite things once again. Ken Whisenhunt, the Cards coach said of the Patriots blowout “It's disappointing, and it's not acceptable. This time of year, you're supposed to be playing better football than that. We've got to find that team that can play with anybody in the league."While they have nothing to play for, this is not a team that can afford to approach this game as an exhibition. Look for a major effort from the Cards in an effort to build confidence. And their opponent is not a team that is poised for a top effort. While the Seahawks have been playing hard, and at times well, they may have left something on the field Sunday. Their win over the Jets was an emotional one, as Mike Holmgren marked his final appearance at home as Seahawks coach. “Was it special? Yes,” said LB Lofa Tatupu, “We really came to play today.” When you note that you actually brought effort, does that bode well for effort the following week, on the road, just a couple of days after Christmas, in a meaningless game?The Seahawks offensive line on Sunday was made up entirely of backups, including guys who are playing positions that they aren’t familiar with. They were able to get away with that against a Jets team that was dreadful offensively. Not sure if Hasselbeck is back here for the Seahawks. But Seneca Wallace isn’t embarrassing himself, and it wouldn’t make sense for Hasselbeck to come back here with his back issues. Whichever QB is in there, they’ll have trouble generating offense against a motivated Arizona D, and the firepower of the Cardinals that usually appears when they aren’t playing in the Eastern Time Zone will carry the day. Cardinals by 11.
@49ers (-3, -115) over Redskins
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Niners played a truly dreadful game in St. Louis for the first 53 minutes. But despite the fact that they’re playing for very little in the big picture, they kept on fighting and scored a couple of TD’s late to win. It was a pretty dramatic game that you probably didn’t see any highlights of due to the sheer meaningless of it. But it isn’t meaningless for the 49ers themselves. They want interim coach Mike Singletary to get the head job permanently. Veteran Isaac Bruce is showing great leadership in what could be a “playing out the string” situation. Six catches in the fourth quarter, including a TD, on Sunday. Expect the Niners to continue to play hard, and show some pride, as they have been for a while now.The Redskins won an emotional game against the Eagles on Sunday, keeping Philly out of the end zone by inches to hang on for the victory. Out of the playoff race for a while, the Redskins put their all into an effort to spoil the season of a divisional opponent. They’ve succeeded, but this is a team with an undercurrent of unhappiness with the rookie coach and an overall feeling of disappointment. Before overcoming the Eagles, the Redskins had lost 5 of 6 not covering a single one of those games. This is a dysfunctional team that is awash in negativity. Jim Zorn called himself “the worst coach in the league” last week. That’s refreshing honesty from a disappointed coach, but it just offered a hanging slider to his critics in DC.And the Niners relative success after their horrific start (Singletary is 4-4, and the team is on a 5-2 pointspread roll) is more impressive when you consider that they have only played two games at home since October. 5 of their last 7 have been on the road and their only home games have been a 35-16 win over the Rams and a 24-14 win over the Jets. Singletary is popular among the fans in Frisco as well, and despite the meaningless of this game there will be decent crowd support here.The Redskins have a pretty good running game both offensively and defensively, going 4.4 yards per rush offensively and 3.8 yards per rush defensively. But so much of the running game on both sides of the ball is how much effort the line puts into things. And it stands to reason that there will be a more honest effort from San Francisco. It’s awfully tough for the Redskins to be inspired Sunday when they have had a big home win, celebrate Christmas, and then take a road trip for a meaningless game. Skins have not been a better team than the Niners the second half of the season and will not be offering more of an effort. Niners by 10.