No Edge at Home
By S Rickenbach
Bottom Ten Home Fields in the NFL
It's an unwritten rule in NFL handicapping that the home field is worth three points to the hosting club. But astute football bettors want more than just a rule of thumb.
We did a little digging and came up with a power poll of the home advantages for every team in the league. We've attached a number to be used any time the team involved is playing in its own stadium.
Last week we revealed the Top Ten Home Field Edges. This week, we'll reveal the worst home-field edges. Let's take a peek at which clubs received the weakest leg up playing in front of their home crowd.
Detroit (0.0): This team was 0-8 straight-up at home last season and an unbelievable 1-7 ATS. The Lions are probably asking themselves “what is a home field edge?” We’re certainly not assigning them an edge and in fact, we came close to giving them a negative home field edge!
Oakland (0.5): Despite being out west this team’s home field edge is next to nothing. The Raiders have won just two home games in each of their last four seasons. Also, they’re certainly not earning any respect at the cashiers’ window either. Oakland is just 13-34-1 ATS at home the last six seasons! There is not much edge at all here since about 2002 which, not coincidentally, was the last time the Raiders had a team that finished with more than five total wins in a season!
New Orleans (1.0): The Saints are 39-35 on the road and 31-39 at home over the last nine seasons. The Superdome has truly not been of any special significance for the Saints. In fact, their ATS mark at home this decade is 23-41-2.
Cleveland (1.5): This is another stadium, Cleveland Browns Stadium, that carries a bit of a reputation and yet the numbers prove it’s not warranted. The Browns have had a number of poor teams in this decade but, here’s the deciding factor in how unimpressive their home field edge is: over the last 7 seasons, the Browns have only won two more games at home than on the road. In terms of ATS data, they’ve been just a 50-50 proposition at home over the last decade.
Miami (1.5): Here’s another case of a stadium where many assign some extra weight for the home field edge and it’s really not supportable based on recent data. Now called Land Shark Stadium, the home field of the Dolphins has seen Miami go just 12-34-2 the last six seasons. Prior to 2003 the home numbers were much better but it’s certainly hard to ignore this recent date.
St Louis (1.5): At one time, the Rams and their Edward Jones Dome were a big edge. However, over the last four seasons, St Louis actually has more road wins than home wins! Also, the Rams are just 11-21 ATS at home the last four seasons. Truly, there is very little home edge for St Louis as this franchise continues its downward descent.
Atlanta (2.0): The Falcons were 7-1 straight up at home last season but that was just the third time in this decade that they’ve finished with a record above .500 at home. Also, the Georgia Dome seems to get too much respect from the odds maker as it is. The Falcons, before last season, had not had an ATS winning record at home this entire decade.
Carolina (2.0): Surprisingly, the Panthers were 8-0 straight-up at home last season and they also went 5-1-2 ATS at Bank of America Stadium. However, prior to their “magical” home season last year, the Panthers really hadn’t performed all that well at home and we caution you about over-reacting to just one strong season. Traditionally, the Panthers have been better to back on the road rather than when they’re at home.
San Francisco (2.0): The 49’ers had a big home field edge years ago but the reality now is that it’s faded. The 49ers are just 15-25 straight up at home the last five seasons. They’ve shown no great propensity for covering games at home either. As a result, the little home field edge they have is truly just based on their location in the west and how that can create travel headaches for the opposition.
Washington (2.0): This is another over-rated home field. The Redskins are just 17-25-3 ATS as a home favorite at FedEx Field in this decade. Even as home dog they’ve just been a 50-50 proposition in this decade. For further evidence of the home field mediocrity, note that the Redskins have been at least a .500 team five teams in the last nine seasons but they’ve only won more than five home games once in those nine seasons!