NFL October Teams Trends
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com
Although the rosters change with each season, NFL teams have a tendency of repeating themselves – especially when it comes to the point-spread wars.
With the leaves starting to fall, let’s take a look at some of the ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ pro football team trends that have occurred in the month of October in the NFL since 1990.
HOME TEAMS
Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh will definitely be tested to keep this long stretch of excellent play going (28-15 ATS) with this year’s squad. They will be home just once and that will be a bitter battle with Baltimore.
Even when Kansas City has been dreadful, they have still managed to play well at Arrowhead with a 27-18 ATS mark. They will have three chances to improve on this record with Oakland, Houston and Cleveland coming to town for barbeque and football.
Keep an eye on (Bad): After making the playoffs the past two years, and starting 2-0 SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013, Cincinnati will be after real improvement on a 14-27 ATS mark this month again New England and the Jets.
AWAY TEAMS
Good: Atlanta has been regarded as a Play On home team for a number of years now, but actually they are 27-13 ATS as visitors in October. They will have one chance to prove themselves the last Sunday of the month in the Arizona desert.
Keep an eye on (Good): The last time the New York Giants looked this bad was the latter two-thirds of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the G-Men have been money on the road and they will seek to improve upon 26-14 ATS record. They will undoubtedly be catching points at Chicago and at Philadelphia.
New England is a crisp 25-16 ATS in road affairs and tough test in Cincinnati and a return match in New Jersey with the Jets, where they are 12-2 ATS.
Bad: Arizona is a historically odious road team no matter the time of year, but this month, they are an insufferable 12-24 ATS. The lone trip to Frisco does not figure to be pleasant for the Redbirds.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we find two teams with a lousy past in October. One figures to improve and the other, not so much. Seattle (16-31 ATS) will be in the road uniforms three times, twice against division foes Arizona and St. Louis.
Thanks to a bye week, Tampa Bay (14-26 ATS) only has to travel to Atlanta for a road excursion this month of year.
FAVORITES
Keep an eye on (Good): Given how St. Louis has played this season, it be difficult for them to improve on 19-11 ATS record this month. Looking at the schedule, they will only have one chance when they are home against Jacksonville on Oct. 6.
Bad: Because of a Halloween encounter, Cincinnati will play five games in October. The Bengals have been inconsistent and might not be favored as often as was once presumed. They will likely be a small favorite versus Buffalo and a larger favorite at home against the Jets. This is probably more than enough as Cincy is 8-18 ATS supplying others with points.
Keep an eye on (Bad): Tampa Bay is in the midst of another miserable campaign, which is exactly how they play in the role of favorite with a 15-25 ATS mark. We will see what oddsmakers think of the Bucs at home against Philadelphia and Carolina and wager accordingly.
DOGS
Good: Given how Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have played thus far, their past history acknowledges they are almost nicely suited to be underdogs. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS and the Giants are 20-9 ATS, unfortunately in most cases it was with far better teams than what we have seen in 2013.
Keep an eye on (Good): For years, Carolina has relished the underdog role in the second month of the season with a 25-14 spread record. Depending on circumstances, they might not have many opportunities, with trip to Minnesota and Tampa Bay the only possibilities.
Keep an eye on (Bad): The Vikings are 12-22 ATS on the receiving end of points and could in this role at the N.Y. Giants and home versus Green Bay the second half of the month.
DIVISION
Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta may be off is a disappointing start, yet is 20-11 ATS in division conflicts and has the Buccaneers at home on Oct. 20.
The New York football Giants are 23-12 ATS and will have two chances to turn their season around with a home and home against the Eagles.
NFL Betting Tips: October
By Richard Witt
Playbook.com
We're just about a third of the way home in terms of negotiating the NFL's regular season, with the usual blend of confirmations, surprises, disappointments - and sheer disasters:
THE UPPER CRUST: Blessed with the league's cushiest schedule, Peyton Manning's Broncos have put on a sustained offensive show virtually-unmatched in league annals. The power of this offense - with Wes Welker the key added ingredient - has earned the Broncos the right to pace themselves through much of this schedule, after the close call in Dallas. Road dates at Indianapolis and New England will be challenging, and the home-and-home against the Chiefs (still undefeated, at this writing) will allow us to better-measure Kansas City's progress. The ones to beat, if key parts stay healthy, though . . . staying in the AFC, with the steady availability of Steve Gronkowski and Danny Amendola, the Patriots will be remain a tough nut, with their improved defense, though Tom Brady has to demonstrate he can go deep into the playoffs with this prevailing supporting cast... in the NFC, out West, Seattle and San Francisco continue to look likely to hang around a good while, though the 'Hawks aren't quite the same side away from home, while the Niners can be flighty and erratic. New Orleans' Saints appear on quite the mission after last year's league-enforced absence from the upper crust, but with Coach Sean Peyton back and a stiffened defense, they'll be a tough out, though like Seattle, they thrive markedly on home cooking. Aaron Rodgers remains a marvel, but the Pack needs the running game to function to keep opposing defenses honest, and we're reluctant to get too optimistic about their bona fides this season unless we see further improvement.
SUSTAINED TOUGH OUTS: The Ravens aren't regressing quietly after last year's championship, in large part because the quick-and-dirty rebuilt defense is acquitting itself nobly. Cincinnati's living up to its respectable preseason press notices, and have been tenacious away from home - a key positive indicator. In the South, with their sassy, snazzy playcalling and the redoubtable Andrew Luck, the Colts continue to outrace expectations, and it will be up to the defense to keep pace and hold up their end. It'll be tough for either Miami or (gasp!) the Jets to get by New England, but both boast respectable supporting defenses and young quarterbacks (Ryan Tannehill and Geno Smith) with stout arms. Not certain how good the Chiefs really are, as much of their progress is directly attributable to Andy Reid's coaching and the steady game-managing hand of Alex Smith, but they're confident and sound, and that counts for more than a little. The Cowboys are without question the best current sub-.500 league operative, and remain hungry, healthy and the likely NFC East winners, but as wonderful as Tony Romo's arm is, their eventual fate rests on Romo's sustained accuracy at crunch times, and re that, the jury remains out. Out of the NFC North, the Bears and Lions lurk on the fringes, with Chicago in need of a more consistent offense, and the Lions in need of a marked boost in the broad level of team character currently prevalent at Ford Field.
NOT QUITE WHAT WE THOUGHT THEY MIGHT BE: With pick-sixes thrown in four consecutive games, you only need take one look at Matt Schaub to tell that a severe crisis of confidence is working, there, and any recovery prospects for the Houston Texans ride on him. Robert Griffin III's not-what-we-hoped recovery curve has hindered the Redskins, and it's difficult to be blindly optimistic about their postseason prospects.
DISASTERS: The confirmed, obvious prospect to crash and burn? The Jacksonville Jaguars, 0-5 at this writing and a date at Denver as four-TD dogs in the offing... though the very worst may be over, here, with more skill people returning to action and the likelihood that most remaining opponents will take them lightly. Many may have guessed that the two-recent-Supers Giants were going to wear out soon, on both lines, but few thought it was going to be this quick and this sudden, it hasn't taken much to discourage them, and there's scant near-term hope for any sudden turnaround. Bearing up under similar difficulties, the Steelers are the AFC's version of the New Yorkers, with their problems of too much critical attrition and not enough fresh manpower to do much about it, near-term. Tentative coaching and sustained injuries to skill people have left Atlanta with too much to do at 1-4, and fellow NFC South bottom-halfer Tampa Bay appears to have significant morale issues tracking through HC Greg Schiano, with no relief in sight.
And the beat goes on, with such superb matchups as Packers/Ravens and Saints/Patriots - and a testing trip for the Colts, to San Diego - to look forward to, this weekend. Carefully-evaluate those schedules and matchups, and we'll be right there on the case, handicapping away.
Inside the Stats
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
Leaking Oil
When a team has been out gained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as ‘leaking oil’.
Like a bad engine not hitting on all cylinders, they not only burn combustion but money as well, especially when cast in to the role of a favorite.
There have been six college football and three NFL teams that have been installed as ‘leaking oil’ favorites this season. Collectively they are 1-8 ATS (0-6 CFB; 1-2 NFL).
Last week saw Southern Mississippi (-16) and the Miami Dolphins (-3) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.
This week’s Pennzoil plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Arkansas State, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Troy
NFL: Minnesota
5-0 Fat Cats
It’s the time of the season in which undefeated teams in the world of College Football begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game – especially those squads that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.
Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to ‘playing on’ these 5-0 clubs as Game Six is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these Fat Cats. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 260-112-6 straight up and 161-186-5 against the spread overall. Hence, the bubble bursts over 30% of the time in Game Six situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note.
Worse, if these guys find themselves either pick or favored in a conference game, they dip to 62-88-3 ATS.
The week’s list of ‘Fat Cats’ includes the likes of:
Thursday: Louisville
Saturday: Clemson, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas Tech
And if these same ‘Fat Cats’ won 10 or fewer regular season games last season, and are off a spread win of 9 or more points in their last game, they fall to 14-34-1 ATS, including 3-16 ATS if they are home and allowed 21 or fewer points in their last game.
As one of our all time favorite bands – the Traveling Wilburys – once said, it just might be the ‘End Of The Line’ for the Red Raiders and the Tigers this weekend.
Stay tuned.
Double Entendres
As you know we enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.
We call it winning games ‘inside-out’.
When their opponent suffered a loss, yet won the stats, these become double-entendres – or matchups of two teams off completely opposite SU and ITS (In The Stats) results.
No less the FIVE games dot the NFL schedule this week involving double-entendres.
They include (with the game loser/stat winner listed first):
Carolina/Minnesota
Houston/St. Louis
Jacksonville/Denver
Pittsburgh/NY Jets
San Diego/Indianapolis.
The Chargers/Colts clash features both teams off 100-yard ‘inside-out’ results.
Highs and Lows
Las week there were some really HIGH scoring games (99 points in Dallas, 62 points in Indianapolis, 61 points in Cleveland) and some LOW scoring games (19 points in Cincinnati, 28 points in Arizona, 31 points in Green Bay).
After five weeks the oddsmakers have done a very good job balancing out their Totals, with 40 Overs and 37 Unders.
The best ‘Over’ situations have been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC), going 19-8 ‘Over’ on the season – including 4-1 ‘Over’ last week.
Week 6:
Green Bay at Baltimore
Detroit at Cleveland
St. Louis at Houston
Tennessee at Seattle
New Orleans at New England
Stat Of The Week
USC interim head coach Ed Orgeron was 0-23 straight up overall in games versus .500 or greater opponents as a head coach at Ole Miss.
Inside the Stats
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a point-spread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
Leaking Oil Scorecard
As alluded to in this space last week, when a team has been outgained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as ‘leaking oil’.
There have been 10 college football and four NFL teams that have been installed as ‘leaking oil’ favorites this season. Collectively they are 2-12 against the spread (1-9 CFB; 1-3 NFL).
Last week saw Connecticut (-3.5) and the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.
This week’s Quaker State plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Akron, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Rice, Temple
NFL: Detroit, Miami, N.Y. Giants
Deep Six
With the season approaching the midway point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game Six situations.
Our well-oiled database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off one-loss exact. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.
These savvy travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in Game Six scenarios going 103-73-3 ATS in all games since 1980. That represents a rock solid 60% wining spread mark.
This week finds Navy patrolling the waters in this Deep Six scenario.
Better yet, when priced as underdogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 42-21-1 ATS.
The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe off win who sports a .500 or greater record as they improve to 25-8-1 ATS in these spirited battles, including 18-3-1 ATS in games in which the foe allows 14.8 or more PPG on the season.
Yes, indeed, the Midshipmen look to be a ‘devilishly’ good side on this week’s card when they visit Toledo on Saturday.
Mr. Clean
To a football player, winning football games on the playing field is practically as good as winning them on the scoreboard.
It means your team outplayed the other team, regardless of what the final score said.
It’s also a strong indicator of what results we can expect in future games.
Here is a list of college football teams that are perfect ITS (In The Stats) in all games this season to date:
Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Georgia, Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon, UCLA, Western Kentucky
Here is a list of college football teams that are winless ITS (In The Stats) this season:
Akron, Miami Ohio, New Mexico State, Temple
In the NFL, the only perfect ITS team is Houston (surprise), while the winless ITS clubs include Miami, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.
Highs and Lows
The average OU line in the 14 NFL games last week was 45.5. The average total points per game were 43.8.
The average game went UNDER by -1.7 points. Strange, considering 60% of the overall games went OVER the total (9-6).
It was the second straight week in which there were more ‘Overs’ than ‘Unders’.
Once again the best OVER situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 22-10 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS in Week 7 would be:
Cincinnati at Detroit
San Francisco at Tennessee
Cleveland at Green Bay
Stat of the Week
The Miami Dolphins are 3-19 ATS as home favorites in game in which they own a win percentage of .454 or higher.
Inside the Stats
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Behind the 8-Ball
Game 8 of the College Football season is often a crossroads for most teams. Those who have won more games than they have lost are entertaining thoughts of securing a bowl bid. Those who are reeling and going down for the count are disappointed – and their actions on the field confirm those feelings.
According to our powerful database, teams playing Game 8 off three consecutive losses are prime candidates to be dropped into a corner pocket and counted out... especially when they take out as road dogs against an opponent off a loss in this situation. That’s because teams in this scenario are a paltry 14-96 SU and 38-69-3 ATS since 1980.
Better yet, bring them in again an opponent off back-to-back losses and the fall to 10-59 SU and 20-46-2 ATS. This week we’ll be queuing-up against California and Northwestern.
And faster than you can say break ‘em, if our qualified ‘play-against’ Game 8 road dog arrives with a wobbly defense allowing 32.5 or more PPG on the season, they scratch like a poison-ivy infected boy scout, going 3-33 SU and 7-27-2 ATS, including 1-37 SU and 3-23-2 ATS as dog of 8 or more points.
With that, look for the Bears to get ‘racked’ this week.
Vinegar & Oil
In keeping with our ‘leaking oil’ theory (fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a rocky effort last week, these plays are now 8-15 ATS (6-10 CFB; 2-5 NFL) this season, according to our Midweek Alert football newsletter.
This week’s Exxon Mobil plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Louisiana Monroe, Notre Dame
NFL: San Francisco
In The Stats
As a follow-up to last week’s accounting of teams that are 100% perfect ‘In The Stats’ (ITS) in all games played this season, the Midweek Alert football newsletter reports these perfect squads:
Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.
Miami Ohio and New Mexico State remain winless.
In the NFL the only perfect ITS team – winless - is Minnesota.
Overwhelming
In the NFL, there have been 57 ‘OVERS’ and 49 ‘UNDERS’ this season.
Leading the charge have been the totals results in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 24-11 OVER.
This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be:
Jacksonville vs. San Francisco (London)
Buffalo vs. New Orleans
Denver vs. Washington.
Stat Of The Week
North Texas has not won three games in a row since 2004, and is 1-24 straight up in games off a previous win.