The oddsmakers have increased the average favorite in the first week for 4 years running. In 2006, the favorite layed an average of -3.31. In 2007, the favorite layed an average of -4. In 2008, favorites averaged -5.1. This is the biggest jump going into the first week, as favorites are an average -6.8. The main point I want to make here, is this year has the most head coaching changes in the last 4 years, and may be the most ever for one year. In 2006 we had 10 coaching changes, and the underdogs out-performed the favorites 10 to 6. Only three games have reasons to lay double digits. This is due to Kansas City, Tampa Bay, and Buffalo firing their offensive coordinators a week before the season starts.
2006 Week 1 NFL
Arizona-7.5 (42.5) 34 San Francisco 27 Atlanta 20 Carolina-5.5 (39.5) 6
Baltimore 27 Tampa Bay-2.5 (34.5) 0 New England-9.5 (41.5) 19 Buffalo 17
Chicago-3.5 (35.5) 26 Green Bay 0 Cincinnati 23 Kansas City-2.5 (46.5) 10
New Orleans 19 Cleveland-3.5 (35.5) 14 Jacksonville-2.5 (36.5) 24 Dallas 17
St. Louis 18 Denver-3.5 (45.5) 10 Seattle-6.5 (45.5) 9 Detroit 6
Philadelphia-3.5 (35.5) 24 Houston 20 Indianapolis-3.5 (47.5) 26 N.Y. Giants 21
Pittsburgh-.5 (34.5) 28 Miami 17 Minnesota 19 Washington-4.5 (35.5) 16
N.Y. Jets 23 Tennessee-2.5 (35.5) 16 San Diego-2.5 (43.5) 27 Oakland 0
2007 Week 1 NFL
San Francisco-3.5 (45.5) 20 Arizona 17 Minnesota-3 (36) 24 Atlanta 3
Cincinnati-2.5 (40.5) 27 Baltimore 20 Denver-3.5 (37.5) 15 Buffalo 14
St. Louis-.5 (42.5) 13 Carolina 27 San Diego-6.5 (43.5) 14 Chicago 3
Pittsburgh-4 (37) 34 Cleveland 7 Dallas-6 (44) 45 N.Y. Giants 35
Oakland-2 (37.5) 21 Detroit 36 Philadelphia-4 (42.5) 13 Green Bay 16
Houston pk (42) 20 Kansas City 3 Indianapolis-6 (51) 41 New Orleans 10
Jacksonville-6 (38) 10 Tennessee 13 Washington-3.5 (34.5) 13 Miami 16*
New England-6.5 (40.5) 38 N.Y. Jets 14 Seattle-6.5 (42) 20 Tampa Bay 6
2008 Week 1 NFL
Arizona-2.5 (41.5) 23 San Francisco 13 Detroit-3.5 (40.5) 21 Atlanta 34
Cincinnati-1.5 (38.5) 10 Baltimore 17 Buffalo-1.5 (38.5) 34 Seattle 10
San Diego-9.5 (41.5) 24 Carolina 26 Indianapolis-9.5 (44.5) 13 Chicago 29
Dallas-5.5 (49.5) 28 Cleveland 10 Denver-3 (41.5) 41 Oakland 14
Green Bay-2.5 (38.5) 24 Minnesota 19 Pittsburgh-6.5 (42.5) 38 Houston 17
Jacksonville-3 (36.5) 10 Tennessee 17 New England-15.5 (44.5) 17 Kansas City 10
N.Y. Jets-3.5 (35.5) 20 Miami 14 New Orleans-3.5 (42.5) 24 Tampa Bay 20
N.Y. Giants-4.5 (41.5) 16 Washington 7 Philadelphia-7.5 (44.5) 38 St. Louis 3
2009 Week 1 NFL
Arizona-6.5 (46.5) San Francisco Baltimore-12.5 (36.5) Kansas City
Atlanta-3.5 (43.5) Miami New England-10.5 (47.5) Buffalo
Philadelphia-1.5 (43.5) Carolina Green Bay-3.5 (46.5) Chicago
Minnesota-4.5 (39.5) Cleveland Cincinnati-4.5 (43.5) Denver
Dallas-6.5 (39.5) Tampa Bay New Orleans-13.5 (48.5) Detroit
Houston-4.5 (43.5) N.Y. Jets Indianapolis-7.5 (44.5) Jacksonville
San Diego-9.5 (43.5) Oakland Pittsburgh-6.5 (35.5) 13 Tennessee 10
Seattle-8.5 (41.5) St. Louis N.Y. Giants-6.5 (37.5) Washington
3 year avg. scores in the NFL on Week 1
Atlanta 19 Miami 15.6
Baltimore 21.3 Kansas City 7.6
Philadelphia 25 Carolina 19.6
Cincinnati 20 Denver 22
Minnesota 20.6 Cleveland 10.3
Houston 19 N.Y. Jets 19
Indianapolis 26.6 Jacksonville 14.6
New Orleans 17 Detroit 21
Dallas 30 Tampa Bay 8.6
Arizona 24.6 San Francisco 20
N.Y. Giants 24 Washington 12
Seattle 13 St. Louis 11.3
Green Bay 13.3 Chicago 19.3
New England 24.6 Buffalo 21.6
San Diego 21.6 Oakland 11.6
These are average offensive scores.
Good stuff VF, thanks for posting