NFL Opening Line Report
By JOSH NAGEL
It’s not often you find an NFL game in which the absence of a defensive player impacts the pointspread. Contests in which two defensive players affect the number are rarer still.
But that’s what oddsmakers and handicappers are in for when the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers visit the Chicago Bears in a high-profile Week 2 showdown.
Safety Troy Polamalu, who is the heart of Pittsburgh’s top-ranked defense, is out for several weeks after tearing his medial collateral ligament in the season opener against the Tennessee Titans.
For the Bears, the news went from bad to worse. Already reeling from Sunday night’s 21-15 last-minute loss to the Green Bay Packers, the club learned Monday that star linebacker Brian Urlacher will be out for the season with a wrist injury suffered in the first quarter.
“I think it’s psychological … it’s a devastating blow to this team for the week and the rest of the season,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “It’s hard to measure his value in points or odds, or anything like that.”
Seba characterized the impact of Polamalu and Urlacher “somewhat of a push” to the spread, although he noted the Pittsburgh safety is worth more to the line (1 to 1.5 points to the side and total) than any other defensive player in the NFL.
The oddsmaker said LVSC originally considered listing the game as Bears -1 or as a pick ‘em, but ultimately recommended Steelers -1.5. The adjustment had more to do with Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler’s four-interception debacle than it did as a response to the loss of Urlacher.
“Absolutely … Cutler’s performance was abysmal, and it’s going to take him some time to get comfortable,” Seba said.
The oddsmaker noted that some sportsbooks have opened the game with Pittsburgh as a 3-point favorite for even money.
“I think a lot of that is an overreaction to the last thing they saw,” Seba said. “Once people realize how important of a game this is for the Bears, I think we’ll some Bears money coming in. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the line close at -2.5 or a lower.”
Urlacher and Polamalu weren’t the only high-profile Week 1 casualties. Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb suffered a broken rib while scoring a touchdown in their 38-10 romp over Carolina Panthers.
Although McNabb initially was ruled out of Sunday’s home game against the New Orleans Saints, Eagles coach Andy Reid told the media Monday that his star quarterback might try to play through the pain.
It comes as no shock that McNabb’s presence – or lack thereof – will have a major impact on the line. Seba said LVSC would list the Eagles at -5.5 with McNabb behind center, but the number would drop to Eagles -1 or a pick ‘em if third-year backup Kevin Kolb takes the field. Michael Vick, the team’s third quarterback, is ineligible to play because of a two-game suspension.
“Even if McNabb plays, he wouldn’t be 100 percent,” Seba said. “The number doesn’t represent his total value because he was already hurt. He’s worth a touchdown.”
Kansas City’s Matt Cassel is another signal-caller whose injury status for Week 2 will impact the spread, Seba noted. Although second-stringer Brodie Croyle gave a respectable showing in the Chiefs’ 38-24 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Seba said Cassel, who is questionable with a knee injury, is worth at least two points to the Chiefs, who tentatively are listed as a 4-point favorite over the Oakland Raiders.
The performance of the Raiders in their season opener against the San Diego Chargers on Monday Night Football also will play into the final number, the oddsmaker said.
Adjusting the power rankings of each NFL team based on their Week 1 performances is the dominant theme for oddsmakers as they set the lines for Week 2. Whether a team’s opening-day showing is an accurate indicator of how it will fare over the long haul is secondary to the fact that it will have a strong influence on bettors for the rest of the season.
In other words, perception becomes reality, and oddsmakers must adjust their power rankings accordingly. Week 1 provided plenty of examples of teams whose ratings became a moving target after their play suggested they were better or worse than their initial grade.
For instance, the New York Jets saw their stock soar after rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez played mostly error-free football and their defense stymied what many expected to be a potent offense from the Houston Texans. New York’s 24-7 road victory made oddsmakers think twice before posting a number on Sunday’s home game against the New England Patriots.
“The overall performance by the Jets as a team made us adjust the power ratings for them,” Seba said. “Before that game was played, we had New England at -9 or 9.5. Now, we are thinking -6.5 or -7.”
On the flip side, the Carolina Panthers saw their rating take a nosedive amid quarterback Jake Delhomme’s miserable four-interception outing in their blowout home loss to the Eagles.
Whereas Seba initially pegged the Atlanta Falcons as a 3.5-point favorite Sunday over the visiting Panthers, he now believes Falcons -7 is the correct number. He noted many books have opened with Falcons -6.5.
“Carolina now looks like a team with so many problems, that it might be lucky to win four or five games,” the oddsmaker said.
Other early Week 2 lines include: Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+9.5); Cincinnati Bengals at Green Bay Packers (-9.5); Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4); Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7); Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-1); Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3.5); Baltimore Ravens at San Diego Chargers (-4); New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills (line pending because of Monday Night Football); Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (+3).