Opening Line Report: Bettors Relying on Familiar Faces
By JOSH NAGEL
Although this NFL season has produced some unlikely cash cows, bettors have been able to rely on a couple of old stand-bys to cover the spread for their bread.
Case in point: Brothers Peyton and Eli Manning have been as efficient as ever in bringing home the cash for their backers. Reigning MVP Peyton Manning continues carving up defenses for the finesse-oriented Colts, while Eli Manning is still growing as the leader of the gritty Giants.
Each has had challenges to overcome. Peyton Manning is playing for a new coach and moving on without Marvin Harrison, his longtime favorite target, while Eli is breaking in a core of young receivers to make up for the loss of Plaxico Burress and has had to deal with injuries in the running game.
No matter. The Colts and Giants are a combined 8-0 overall and 6-1-1 against the number for gamblers after each covered Sunday. The Colts beat the Seattle Seahawks 34-17 as a 10-point home chalk and the road-tested Giants posted a 27-16 win in Kansas City to get the money as a 9-point chalk.
The Mannings are a combined 46-25-1 ATS over their past 72 regular-season games for a winning clip of 63.8 percent. Bettors have taken notice, and sportsbooks have paid the price.
“People bet them because they are a known quantity,” said Terry Cox, race and sports director at the Reno-based Peppermill Resort Casino. “Some of them don’t even pay attention to the pointspread. They just say, ‘I want the Colts. They are laying points on the road? I don’t care. They are laying double-figures at home? I don’t care. I want the Giants.’”
So far, ignorance of the spread has led to betting bliss for those who back the Mannings, but a penchant for putting your money behind the NFL’s best comes with its own type of luxury tax.
The Giants are opening as 16-point home favorite against the hapless Oakland Raiders (1-3, 2-2 ATS) in Week 5 despite the fact that its franchise quarterback might be a little gimpy after suffering a heel injury late in Sunday’s win over the Chiefs.
“The Raiders have such a bad offense now, that I have a hard time seeing how they are going to score,” Cox said. “They are also a big go-against team. The public jumps on them every week.”
Peyton Manning and friends are listed as a 3.5-point favorite at the still-winless, still-desperate Tennessee Titans (0-4, 1-3 ATS).
Cox noted that backing the Titans, who had the league’s best record last year at 13-3, based on the simple notion that they are due for a win, has been a popular but disastrous strategy. They have failed to cover since their Week 1 13-10 loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
“People have been burned with the Titans, who have been in this ‘must-win’ situation for three weeks,” Cox said. “They have this idea that they can’t possibly lose another game … then they do. Watch, this will be the week when they finally back off that idea, and the Titans will tromp on the Colts.”
Other high-profile teams laying substantial numbers on the road in Week 5 include the Steelers, who are 10.5-point favorites at the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings, who open as 10-point favorites when they visit the St. Louis Rams.
Cox used Tennessee’s woes as a prime example of the tendency of gamblers to fade or back an NFL team at just the wrong time, which helps the bottom line of his and other sportsbooks worldwide.
Bettors will be tested against this theory in several of the Week 5 tilts, many of which include clubs that have exceeded pre-season predictions.
For instance, the undefeated Denver Broncos (4-0, 4-0 ATS) won over many skeptics after their defense shut down the Dallas Cowboys in the second half of Sunday’s 17-10 win.
This week will present a similar circumstance for both clubs. The Broncos will again be offered as a home underdog at +3.5 points against the New England Patriots (3-1, 2-2 ATS), who covered the number in their 27-21 win over the Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys (2-2, 2-2 ATS) are 9-point road chalks at Kansas City (0-4, 0-4 ATS).
“I think people are getting the idea that the Broncos are a better team than the might have thought, and the Cowboys are not the elite team that many expected at the beginning of the season,” Cox said.
Another team that has surpassed expectations, and drawn the interest of bettors along the way, is the San Francisco 49ers (3-1, 4-0 ATS). The success of the Mike Singletary-led club, which clobbered the Rams 35-0 Sunday, has been a particular boon to Nevada casinos because of its regional proximity, Cox noted.
The oddsmaker said the perpetual woes of the Raiders and 49ers have hurt the bottom line of Nevada sportsbooks for years, and the rejuvenation of the 49ers, who are 2.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 5, has created some welcome interest in the Bay Area team.
“We’re surprised by the 49ers, and happily so,” Cox said. “It helps our handle, and we’re glad to have those fans back.”
Other Week 5 matchups include: Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-8.5); Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-6); Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-3.5); Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-5.5); New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+1.5); Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (no line/Philadelphia quarterback status); Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (no line/Seattle quarterback status.)
"TRUE STEAM" for NFL (Wk5) & NCAAFB (Wk6)..OPENING LINE MOVES !!
by vegas-runner
There just isn't enough Wiseguy money to help offset the liability that the books have on the Big Favs in the NFL each week...And although the books have had a very good year so far in NCAAFB...they are giving it all back in the Pros...And when those Big Favs all cash on the same day, you can be sure that they really got beat up by a lot of 3,4 & 5 Tm Parlay & Teaser Bets...And when paying out odds of 10-1 & 20-1...it becomes very hard to make any of that up from losing Straight Bets...
Speaking to some of the guys who move "Steam" throughout the weekend...they all said exactly what Bookmaker Jimmy V said a week ago...The sportsbooks are getting tired of paying out all those Parlays and even Straight Bets on the "Big Favs"...So to try and change that, the books are actually opening their lines for those favs, even higher than they should...And on top of it, they are only taking very small bets early on, which will allow them time to adjust if they see the need to...
This ulimately gives these Wiseguys a huge edge in the line...And the books are just fine with it, because as I've stated many times...there is just no way that the Wiseguy money can really help to limit the liability of the books in the NFL...There is just too much public money bet each Sunday for that to happen...So the books have no problem at all allowing these Wiseguys to get the best of it in the NFL...But once again, that plan didn't work out very well again this week...Since those "Big Favs" went "6-1 ATS"...
In my experience, I've found that eventually the books will adjust enough...Which ultimately makes those "Big Favs" not so profitable after all... Let's not forget that even though we have seen a lot less dogs get the money in the NFL over the L/5 yrs...the books still did a good enough job adjusting those "Big Favs" last season...And those "Double-Digit" Dogs actually ended up cashing almost "65% ATS"...Plus, historically we've seen them do well over time...So it seems like the books will have to just wait and see if it all balances out over time, and for now, continue to make bettors pay a premium for backing those teams...While the Wiseguys will have to decide whether to continue taking these "Big Dogs" who offer them all this extra-value...even though it's cost them so far...
With that, let's move on to the Opening Lines for next week's NCAAFB & NFL match-ups...And see how the Wiseguys are planning to attack...as well as where they felt the Sportsbooks offered a "soft number"...Then, I'll follow this Blog up once again later in the week...to see how these lines continued moving, which positions were possible "set-ups", and which positions were actually taken for the purpose of setting up a nice "Middle" with a "Buy-Back" later in the week...
(Keep in mind that as the season progresses...there are less moves early because there is less discrepency between the opening numbers at the different books...Since they are able to adjust their Ratings to resemble each others...So the Wiseguys have less success setting up Middles immediately due to these different opinions)
NCAAFB "TRUE STEAM" for SAT 10-10-09 :
1.) CONNECTICUT opened +10.5/+9.5....Now +8.5
Cris offered the 1st Off-Shore line on this match-up at PITT -10.5 and immediately took a little money...The Wiseguys didn't tip their hand completely and because of that Pinny & Olympic still opened their line at -10 & -9.5 respectively within 30min of Cris...The books assumed the Wiseguys were finished, and simply were picking off any +10.5...But within the hour, the Wiseguys surprised them and went to work buying up all the +10 & +9.5's they could find...In fact, they tried getting down so much at those numbers...that we saw most books do what Pinny did and immediately drop the line "1.5 Pts"...from 10 to 8.5...Where it has since settled, and my "Line Prediction" is that the Wiseguys aren't done yet, and they may decide to bet it again later in the week and force an even bigger adjustment...and ultimately have the opportunity for a big middle, if they want it on Saturday...VR
2.) WISCONSIN opened +16/+15....Now +14
This is one of those Positions based on anticipation, as everyone I spoke to expects to see the books take plenty of public money on WIS next Saturday...Cris opened this one up first again, and the Wiseguys took +16 right away...Within 10 min, the line was at +15...and that's where the others opened it up...That'swhen the Wiseguys went to work, buying up all the +15 they could find...The books decided to adjust this line in 1/2 pt incriments, and the Wiseguys couldn't have been happier...as they were now able to take another Position at +14.5...Forcing the books to lower it even more, down to OSU -14 which is where it is this morning...My Line Prediction is that the betting public will do what the Wiseguys expect, and that's come in on the dog...and ultimately drive this number down some more...The books will not want to open up a big middle for the Wiseguys, but being such a big game...they may have no choice...VR
3.) OKLAHOMA opened -23/-23.5....Now -24.5 & Rising
This is one of those bets that I've discussed many times before...Because as a runner, I couldn't wait to bet those "High Profile" NCAAFB teams that the public ended up backing each week...Like I've said many times, back then we would almost blindly bet the Top 3-5 Teams in the Polls as soon as the line went up for the following week...Because if we decided that it may not be such a great bet, even at a good number...we could always opt for a middle attempt and minimize the risk later...What is most surprising about this bet, is that we can't be sure that is the reasoning for it...Because Cris actually lowered their line on this game when they first opened it...And it wasn't until early today, that the Wiseguys decided to start betting OKL...Word I'm hearing is that it's based on the expectancy of QB Sam Bradford being able to play...And that when Okl announces this, the books will be forced to adjust...which will ultimately give the Wiseguys the best of it...At least, that's what the runners that I spoke to when I first saw this line moving this morning said...Line Prediction : I expect the Wiseguys sources to be better than the oddsmakers...and if they are betting this because they expect Bradford will go...then my money is that he'll play...VR
4.) LSU opened +11.5/+9.5....Now +8.5
When Cris was the 1st to put the number out for this big SEC game next week...it was obvious that the Wiseguys felt that it was too high...And from those I spoke with, the reason was not because QB Tim Tebow is still listed as questionable with a concussion...Because if that was the case, I believe more books would have delayed putting out a number on the game...So this was just a simple case of the Wiseguys feeling that the oddsmakers and bookmakers have over-valued Floriday, and at the same time, under-valued LSU...And they let their opinion be known loud and clear when they got down what the could at +11.5...Which may not have been too much, but they then went ahead and bet 10.5...That's when the other Off-Shore Books began opening their lines up for the following week's football, and they made FLA -9.5...And the Wiseguys let them know that it was still too high, and took some +9.5 on LSU as well...This morning, we were looking at -9 across the board on FLA...and the Wiseguys decided that there was still some value left, and bet LSU +9...And that's why we are looking at 8.5 across the board...And my Line Prediction is that the Public will also be betting the Home Dog, which will force another adjustment frin the books...and ultimately tempt the Wiseguys on a nice big middle on a "Prime-Time" match-up...VR
5.) UTAH ST opened -10.5/-11...Now -13/-13.5
When the Wiseguys get down on teams like this one...you have to pay attention because many times, even though it isn't an "Added Game"...the books will either put a "circle" around it, or just not take their normal limit...In other words, rather than allow a runner to come in and bet $2k on it, they will instead only take a Nickle ($500)...and this way, be able to adjust the number and not have to take that much risk on the mistake...I have actually sat in front of a window and made the exact same bet 4-5 times while allowing them the opportunity to adjust...And I can promise you, that nothing pisses a bookmaker off more than knowing the line the put up is so weak...someone is actually continuing to bet into it while they are moving it....It's something that I think every sports bettor should experience at least once...lol...Getting back to this bet, we saw different books take a different approach...but in the end, they all got to the same place...Because the wiseguys immediately started betting UTAH ST at -10.5 & -11...and while some books moved in 1/2 pt incriments and kept getting nailed all the way to -13...others did what Pinny did, and after getting hit at -10.5 & -11.5...went to -13 immediately after...Line Prediction is that with the amount of attention a game like this gets (very little), it should only continue moving in 1 direction...Which will then force the books to either take a stand, and leave it there...or continue adjusting and risk a middle attempt later in the week...VR
NFL "TRUE STEAM" for SUN 10-11-09 :
1.) REDSKINS opened +4.5....Now +3.5/+3
When Cris opened CAR -4.5, they immediately got hit with REDSKINS money from the Wiseguys...So much so, that they went right to -3.5 to avoid any more...Other Off-Shore books took their chances and opened it up at -4 or -4.5 and it didn't take long for the Wiseguys to reprimand them for this...Strangely, when the Vegas books began taking work for next week...we actually saw the LV Hilton open the line CAR -2.5...That immediately opened up a very profitable middle opportunity and the Wiseguys didn't waste any time betting CAR -2.5...since they already had plenty on WASH +4.5...We are now looking at anywhere from 3.5 to 3 and my line prediction is that it won't drop below that because from what I've been told, the sportsbooks expect the betting public to really back Carolina coming off their "bye" and desperate for a win...I'm sure the books would love to leave this at 3.5, instead of 3...to avoid a profitable middle opp for the Wiseguys on this game...Instead, I believe they are hoping to be able to collect some vig since the public and wiseguys will be on opposite sides...and ultimately limit their liability on the game...VR
2.) LIONS opened +12/+11.5....Now +10.5
I've been talking and writing about this all week now...so it shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone that the Wiseguys decided to bet the Lions as soon as the books opened the line for next week's game vs PITT...In fact, since PITT played on SNF...this line wasn't available for betting until early this morning...And as I've said, the wiseguys already know that the lines on the big favs will be sent out higher than they should be...And we also know that the books will force bettors to pay a premium for these marquee teams (PITT, NE, DAL, ect)...So most times, you are getting the best of the number by fading these teams...But what is most surprising and also most telling about this bet from the Wiseguys on Detroit...is that they made it so early in the week...Because after the way PITT looked last night, the books should get plenty of Steelers money bet by the public next Sunday...And usually, the Wiseguys will wait these plays out...just like many books are reporting,is being done this year...So this tells me that they really made their number on Pitt much shorter, and none of the Betting Syndicates wanted to be left out of the party and miss th chance of getting a "Double-Digit" Home Dog...My Line Prediction for this isthat we will not see it go back up, regardless of whether the public does what's expected of them, and bet PITT...In fact, I would much more expect to see this at 10...with another "buy-order" sent out later in the week...Because if the Wiseguys are willing to bet right away, besides the Stafford injury, then this is a position that they really like...and feel is profitable...VR
Those are some of the more significant "TRUE STEAM" moves that were bet as soon as the sportsbooks opened up shop for next week's NFL & NCAAFB match-ups...And also some of the moves that I can pass along the "reasoning" that goes into them...Because as I've said before, just about EVERY SIDE and EVERY TOTAL will move from the "Opening Number"...And there are many reasons why they move...So I will try and continue to pass along those moves which are actually "TRUE POSITIONS" taken by the Wiseguys...and also try to point out those which aren't...
I will do a "Follow-Up" a few times this week...where I will be able to pass along those "TRUE STEAM" Bets that were made after the Betting Syndicates had some time to work on the individual match-ups...rather than bet simply on "Ratings" like much of the early "Steam" actually is...And I'll also try and cover those games that we are seeing a significant "Line Move"...which aren't based on "TRUE STEAM"...And will help all bettors get a richer understanding of the various factors that influence a number from the time it opens, to the time it goes off...Because in the end, this is simply a "Numbers Game"...and success comes from understanding the "Market Reaction", or to put it more simply, how and why the numbers are moving...as well as what those numbers should actually be.
Inside the Steam - Week of Oct 6th
By Stan Sharp
Florida @ LSU
LSU Opened (+9) Now (+7.5)
This move was Wise Guys taking advantage of the uncertain status of Tim Tebow. Offshore sportsbook Cris opened the game at (+11.5). Vegas waited a little longer and opened the Game at (+9). Since then the line has been bet down to (+7.5). Stan feels that this was strictly a position move as Wise Guys in town grabbed the highest number they could with LSU. As we get closer to Saturday the sharps will buy back Florida at (-7 or 7.5) creating a nice middle for themselves. Actually Stan was surprised that the Offshore Books and Vegas brought the number out so early with the uncertainty regarding Tebow. For a game of this nature they should of held the game off the board for a day or two to have a better idea if Tebow was going to play or not. Stan says that this move was not a result of steam but a positioning bet from Wise Guys who will buy back later in the week with Florida.
Connecticut @ Pitt
Connecticut Opened (+10.5) Now (+8)
Stan notes that this Games was bet right from the start as this game quickly made it's way down to 8 from 10.5 as the Wise Guys seemed like they couldn't get enough of Connecticut. Stan says you have to respect this move as they are betting against Pitt a team that was on National TV last Friday and looked very dominate in beating Louisville 35-10 so the fact they jumped on the dog here is a Move to respect. Stan believes this was a True Steam Move.
Bowling Green @ Kent
Kent Opened (+6) Now (+4.5)
This move on the Dog has the Wise Guys and oddsmakers just disagreeing in the real value of these two teams. Fact is Bowling Green hasn't done a thing since they almost beat Missouri in the second game of the season. It appears the Oddsmakers are having trouble deciding the right number for Bowling Green. The Wise Guys told them they are wrong and jumped on the dog. Stan says he believes the Wise Guys move to be the right side given the fact Bowling Green is giving up 6.8 yards per rush the last 3 games. Stan says Kent is a True Steam Move.
Washington @ Carolina
Washington Opened (+4.5) now (+3)
Offshore this line opened at 4.5 but the Vegas casinos were smarter than that and waited and opened the line at 3.5 & 3 . Stan's take was the Oddsmakers were thinking that Carolina being a playoff team last year and at 0-3 this year would get some action coming off the bye week. Well the Wise Guys know Carolina isn't good and they have adjusted their numbers faster than the Oddsmakers have so the Wise Guys took the value and grabbed all the 4 and 4.5's they could find with Washington. Stan believes this was a True Steam Move and that this line should settle right on 3 come Sunday.