NFL Opening Line Report: Week 5
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)
Through the first four weeks of the season, Dallas still can’t seem to find the form it had during a 13-3 SU regular season in 2016. On Sunday, the Cowboys (2-2 SU and ATS) were in a dogfight throughout with the Los Angeles Rams and ultimately fell short 35-30 as a 5-point home favorite.
Green Bay got through the first month at 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS), with the only loss coming at defending NFC champion Atlanta. Last week in the Thursday nighter, the Packers bounced the Bears 35-14 as a 7.5-point chalk.
“This rivalry has renewed in great fashion the last few years, and this game will easily be our biggest handle of the season from a public perspective,” Cooley said of this 4:25 p.m. ET clash on Sunday. “Neither team is probably as good as perceived, and they are very close in our power ratings. Peg Dallas as a short favorite and see where the action takes it.”
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+4)
Much like Dallas, New England was dealt a stunning home loss in Week 4 and has now lost two of its three home games this season. The Patriots (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) tumbled to Carolina 33-30 as a 9-point fave, and now hit the road on a short week, playing in the Thursday night game.
Tampa Bay (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) got a Nick Folk 34-yard field goal as time expired to edge the New York Giants 25-23, but the Bucs fell a tick short of covering as 2.5-point chalk Sunday.
“We’re expecting this number to inflate with the Patriots coming off a loss. But it’s doubtful it will grow to -5, and unlikely it will drop below -4,” Cooley said. “Our team was pretty consistent on this number and it feels right. Squares will think this is a steal spread, backing the Pats.”
As Cooley predicted, the number did bump up a tick later Sunday night, to Patriots -4.5.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Philadelphia is looking solid through four weeks, having already posted a pair of road victories. On Sunday at San Diego, the Eagles (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) held on for a 26-24 win as a 2-point underdog.
Arizona (2-2 SU) hasn’t covered in any of its four games this season. The Cardinals needed overtime Sunday in an offensive slog against San Francisco, winning 18-15 laying 6 points at home.
“My best guess is that this will climb a bit on the favorite side,” Cooley said. “Arizona is just not a good team, while we’ve been quite impressed with the Eagles, particularly in their road victories against decent competition. Some of our oddsmakers wanted this at -7.”
By late Sunday night, it was already trending that way, with Bookmaker.eu moving the Eagles to -6.5.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (no line)
Los Angeles is arguably one of the biggest surprises so far this season, getting out of the box 3-1 SU (2-2 ATS) while piling up a ton of points. The Rams went into Dallas on Sunday as a 5-point pup, but came away with a 35-30 victory, getting six field goals from Greg Zuerlein.
Seattle finally showed signs of life on offense in the second half of the Week 4 Sunday night game. The Seahawks (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) scored 36 points over the final two frames against Indianapolis, rolling to a 46-18 victory laying 12.5 points at home. With Seattle in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is waiting until Monday to post the line on Seahawks-Rams.
“Depending on how the Sunday night game goes, we’ll likely open Seattle as short chalk on the road,” Cooley said. “The Rams have surprised most, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly impressed in the early goings (prior to Sunday). That said, the public won’t think twice about backing the ‘Hawks at a favorable number.
Opening Line Report - Week 5
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
The Patriots appear to have some issues. Giving up 456.8 yards per game, their defense is ranked dead last in the NFL by a wide margin. Also, Tom Brady has been sacked 13 times this season. The huge Super Bowl favorites coming into the season are just 2-2 and looking ordinary.
“Carolina’s offense before (Sunday’s 33-30 win at New England) has been very underwhelming, plus they were banged up, and they were basically able to move the ball at will, Cam Newton looked like the MVP and Jonathan Stewart looked like he was 25-years-old again,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology. “They couldn’t move the ball at home at all against the Bills and Saints, now they go on the road and move the ball like that?”
Nevertheless, for the Week 5 Thursday night game at the Buccaneers, the Pats were bet from an opening line of -4 to -5.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. The total opened 54 at CG Technology.
“The Patriots still take money every weekend. In the future book, someone made a decent five-figure bet on the Patriots at 4/1 to win the Super Bowl this week, so people are happy to bet them,” said SuperBook manager Ed Salmons. “But I don’t think the Patriots are even close to being the best team (in the league). I don’t think there’s a clear best team right now, that’s pretty obvious.”
Asked if he has long-term concerns about New England, Simbal responded, “Yes, for the first time I can remember.”
Here’s a look at the rest of the NFL Week 5 card:
Sunday, October 8
Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants (-4, 44.5)
The Westgate opened the Giants -4.5 while William Hill opened -3.5, and the two sports books met halfway at -4 for this matchup of winless teams. As of Monday morning in Las Vegas, the Chargers were available at +4.5 at a few shops for gamblers interested in the underdog.
Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 38.5)
The Bills were adjusted from +3.5 to +3 in the first 20 minutes of wagering Sunday night at the Westgate, with other sports books falling in line at the shorter number. Based on the way their defense has been playing, the move toward the Bills makes sense. At 13.5 points allowed per game, Buffalo is No. 1 in the NFL, and they’ve put together back-to-back wins against top-level competition – home vs. Denver and at Atlanta.
While neither bookmaker we spoke to sees Buffalo as a factor in the playoffs, they’re both impressed by the Bills and envision an eight- or nine-win season in Sean McDermott’s first year as head coach.
“I’m starting to believe in them, they’re defense is definitely legit,” Salmons said. “They’re defense has played amazing. They were fortunate with Julio Jones leaving the game in the first half (of Sunday’s 23-17 win), but they really controlled Atlanta.”
Added Simbal, “They’re opening some nice holes for (LeSean) McCoy. McCoy is still one of the best four or five backs in the league, maybe even top three. Also, Tyrod Taylor makes enough plays with his legs to keep drives alive, but their defense is so good, they don’t need to score that much. If they get to 23, 24 points, like they did (Sunday), then they have a shot. They held the Falcons to 17 points in (Atlanta) – that’s pretty tough to do.”
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 39)
Cleveland opened as low as -1.5, and anything south of -3 indicates the Jets are rated higher than the Browns in the eyes of the betting market. That wasn’t the case coming into the season, as the Jets’ futures odds were historically high (as an example, they were 200/1 to win their division; the next biggest divisional longshot was Cleveland at 25/1 in the AFC North).
The Jets, though, have won two straight games, and the Browns remain winless after the 31-7 drubbing they took at home against Cincinnati.
“If (Jets-Browns) was played a week ago, (the line) would have been more,” Salmons said. “It’s just that the Jets won (Sunday) and Cleveland lost so badly, so they tried to play the line lower. I wouldn’t be surprised if that line went up just because Cleveland needs to win a game, for crying out loud. Their effort today was just a joke.”
Meanwhile, since the Jets seemed to have made moves this offseason to position themselves for a higher pick in the 2018 draft, Salmons said, “It kind of says where the league is right now, where there’s a team that’s trying to lose but they’re winning.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9, 44.5)
The Steelers were bet from -8.5 to -9 at the Westgate and opened -9.5 at Coasts, as the Jags continue a brutal travel schedule – their game in London against the Ravens has been followed by road trips to New York and Pittsburgh.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Miami Dolphins
The Titans are looking at the possibility of having to start Matt Cassel at quarterback as Marcus Mariota’s hamstring heals.
San Francisco 49ers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5,43)
Andrew Luck remains out for the 1-3 Colts. The 49ers remain winless.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5, 45)
The point-spread indicates the betting market believes Philly is the significantly better club in this matchup, but there’s also an NFL handicapping axiom at work here: West Coast teams have difficulty playing at 1:000 p.m. on the East Coast.
“There are certain spots in this league that are just terrible spots,” Salmons said. “Arizona played the late game (Sunday), and they have to travel and play the ten o’clock game on the East Coast. They essentially played a five-quarter game (they beat the 49ers 18-15 in overtime). Even though Philadelphia played on the West Coast as well today, it’s just such a hard thing for the West Coast team to have to travel and then play at 10:00 a.m. PT. That spread is always inflated because of that.”
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions (-3/-120, 44)
This NFC matchup features two 3-1 teams, one of which could easily be 4-0 – the Lions were incredibly unfortunate to lose at home to Atlanta in Week 3.
To Salmons, the Lions have been the best team in the NFC this season, but he’s dubious on their long-term prospects.
“It’s Detroit. It seems like they always start our decently,” Salmons said.
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 46)
The Westgate opened this game pick ‘em Sunday night, but reposted it Rams -2.5 on Monday morning. If the spread holds, it will mark the first time the Rams have been favored over the Seahawks since the 2011 season.
Baltimore Ravens at Oakland Raiders (-5.5)
Derek Carr sustained a back injury Sunday in Denver, and his status is uncertain for next week. But with the way the Ravens have been playing, the Raiders may be just fine without him.
“Baltimore is horrible,” Simbal said. “Pittsburgh was not good (even though they beat the Ravens 26-9 in Baltimore on Sunday). The Ravens have no offense, none, and that’s two weeks in a row now.”
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 52.5)
The Packers are dealing with a multitude of injuries but have a few extra days to get healthy for next week’s showdown in Dallas. The Cowboys, meanwhile, haven’t impressed the bookmakers in Las Vegas.
“I thought before the season they’d have a hard time getting over their win total (9.5). I thought they were a little overvalued, and after watching them, they’re definitely a lot overvalued,” Salmons said. “Right now, you could argue Philadelphia is better than Dallas.”
The Cowboys let a 24-13 lead over the Rams slip away Sunday and ended up losing the game, 35-30.
“I don’t like Dallas right now, I don’t like their defense,” Salmons continued. “Last year was fine when they were playing with the lead and (Dak) Prescott could pass at his own doing. When they’re behind and having to throw all the time, they’re a different team. They couldn’t get the Rams off the field in the second half.”
The injury to linebacker Sean Lee looms large, according to Simbal.
“The D can’t get a stop when they need to, and if Sean Lee’s going to miss a considerable amount of time, they’re gonna be in trouble,” he said.
On the other side of Sunday’s marquee matchup, the Packers are the class of the NFC when they’re healthy, Simbal and his bookmaking colleagues believe.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1.5) at Houston Texans
The Texans were big underdogs at home against Tennessee in Week 4 (+2.5) than they opened against Kansas City in Week 5. Of course, Houston’s 57-point outburst behind a marvelous day by Deshaun Watson got people’s attention.
“I’m not saying Deshaun Watson is MVP, but he’s got to be the best quarterback they’ve had in five or six years,” Simbal said. “That’s a perennial playoff team on the strength of their D and you know the skill players are there, so if Deshaun Watson is legit, they could end up being a contender.”
Added Salmons, “Houston’s always been a team where you’d say, ‘If they could score, they’d be a championship team,.’ But you watch (Brock) Osweiler back there and then (Tom) Savage, it was just helpless on offense. Each game Watson looks better and better and better. … You have to be impressed with what you saw out of Houston (Sunday). They look like a team you have to take seriously now.”
Monday, October 9
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Chicago Bears
While Sam Bradford tries to makes his way back for the Vikings, quarterback Mitch Trubisky will get his first start for the Bears.
NFL Line Watch Week 5
ByArt Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet on now
Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3)
The first-place Buffalo Bills. OMG. No, today is not Opposite Day. The Bills are actually in first place in the AFC for the first time since, well, maybe George Bush – the FIRST George Bush. Anyway, New England’s continued defensive struggles have created at least a temporary opening for the Bills and their long-suffering fans, and right now they’re taking full advantage. Through four games Buffalo has given up the fewest points in the league (less than 14 a game), and back-to-back wins over quality teams (Denver, at Atlanta) has raised hopes sky-high in western New York. With the Patriots on a short week and the Bills on the move, things could get very interesting in the division for the first time in a long time.
Game to wait on
Green Bay at Dallas (-2.5)
This line opened at Dallas -1 in some books but the consensus was -2.5, which led to Green Bay backers jumping in with both feet. It has the look and a feel of a game whose line could melt a bit. There might be an air of desperation in Dallas (even moreso than usual) as the Cowboys are 2-2 and still trying to figure things out. Certainly no one in the league had penciled in a home loss to the Rams when the schedule came out, but here we are. The Boys need to get rolling and fast, but the next four-game bloc includes this one, road games to each coast (San Francisco, Washington) with a home game against a solid KC team mixed in. Green Bay is relishing a few extra days off after demolishing the Bears last Thursday, with about a dozen players nursing various injuries. Might be worth waiting for the injury report before betting this one.
Total to watch
Carolina at Detroit (43.5)
Is Cam Newton finally out of the box, or was Sunday’s 33-point burst just an example of another QB taking advantage of New England’s league-worst defense? Newton’s Panthers had scored just 22 points total in their previous two games (New Orleans, Buffalo) but got out of the sick bed fast against the porous Patriot D. Newton got the job done against NE despite two sacks, an interception and a fumble, which means the O still has some cleanup work to do. The Lions defense has been about average this season, so there should be plenty of opportunities for Carolina to put points on the board as it continues an October stretch of four road games in five weeks.
NFL Opening Line Report Week 5
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 5:
New England (-5, 54) at Tampa Bay – After another disappointing showing from the New England defense, the market is siding with the Patriots on a short week heading down to Tampa Bay. I’m a bit surprised, to be honest, since wiseguys rarely like to lay points on the road with bad defenses, but the Patriots are taking on a lot of the early action with more than 60 percent of the bets per most odds screens. This line ranges anywhere from 4.5 to 5.5 in the marketplace, so it’s sitting in that zone between 4 and 6 where we typically see sharp involvement swing the balance one way or another. We saw the market fade the Buccaneers last week against the Giants and it looks like Tampa Bay is labeled a fade team right now. Injuries to Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David don’t help, especially against an offense like New England’s. The total hasn’t really moved, but I expect that it will.
Arizona at Philadelphia (-6.5, 45) – The Cardinals are a play here or a play there away from being 0-4 and the market seems to have no confidence in their ability to go cross-country to battle the Eagles. A lot of people were against Philadelphia this past Sunday, but the Eagles came away with a 26-24 win in Los Angeles. They went back across the country to get ready to host the Cardinals, so both teams are in less than ideal travel spots. The line opened -6 mostly across the market and is 6.5, with a -7 showing at 5Dimes at +110. The Cardinals were such a popular team coming into the season and they are extremely fortunate to be 2-2 thus far. I’d expect to see -7 painted across the board and then we’ll look for some potential buy back.
Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (-9, 44.5) – Losing to the Jets is a bad look. The Jaguars also played nearly a full fifth quarter in that game after coming back from London and playing the next week. The Steelers ironed out some of their issues against a Baltimore team that was also returning from London. The situational spot is as bad as it gets for Jacksonville this week, which could explain some of the early interest in Pittsburgh at Bookmaker, where the number went up from -8.5 to -9. The consensus percentages show more volume on the Jacksonville side, though. This will be an interesting line to watch throughout the week.
Buffalo at Cincinnati (-3, 39) – This is one of the lowest totals of the season, if not the lowest, and it is probably deserved. The Bengals got their first win of the season in a dominating performance over Cleveland on Sunday. I get the feeling that people are coming around on the Bengals with back-to-back strong efforts. The Bills won a misleading box score game over Denver and then went out on the road and knocked off Atlanta, so I’m a bit surprised to see Cincinnati as the preferred side at the books that opened -2.5. That being said, the books that opened a full -3 have seen a little bit of underdog money to push the juice around. This looks like a game with split sharp opinions if I had to guess.
New York Jets at Cleveland (-2, 39.5) – People generally like to fade teams coming off of overtime games. The Jets played nearly an entire OT period in their home win over the Jags and have won two straight games. The Browns are 0-4 and have looked every bit of a 0-4 team. The market has still bumped this line up a tad from -1.5 to -2 on the early-week action. My guess here is that we see a bit of a sharp vs. public split, with the professionals taking the Browns at the short price and the public fading the Browns with a better than expected Jets team. Early action suggests that will be the case. Jets teasers to +8 will also be very popular this week.
Los Angeles Chargers at New York Giants (-4, 44) – My guess is that the Giants will be one of this week’s biggest movers and I would bet this number closes in the -6 range. The Giants took on a lot of steam last week against Tampa Bay, enough to drive the number down to 2.5, but were unable to pull the outright upset. The Giants did cover for everybody, though, and we’ve already seen a move up from -3 or -3.5 to -4 in this game. I’d expect that to be the trend throughout the week as we see the number climb.
There are a lot of ugly games on the card this week and a lot of games off the board due to injuries:
San Francisco vs. Indianapolis – Andrew Luck is reportedly throwing in practice, so we’ll have to wait on a number here. If Luck plays, we’ll probably see something in the -5 or -6 range. If he doesn’t, it looks like Indianapolis will be favored by less than 3, but a clear favorite.
Tennessee vs. Miami – Marcus Mariota was hurt late for the Titans in their blowout loss against the Texans. We’ll see what his status is throughout the week, but Tennessee appears to be a likely favorite over the hapless Dolphins, who are coming back from London and not taking a bye, which is a spot that did not work for Jacksonville or Baltimore last week.
Baltimore vs. Oakland – Derek Carr’s back will the talk of the town all week in Oakland. He’ll face a tough Baltimore defense in this one and the game is completely off the board.
Minnesota vs. Chicago – The Bears have extra time to prep for the Vikings for Monday Night Football in Week 6. Sam Bradford’s status is still up in the air. Regardless of Bradford’s status, the Vikings will be favored, but probably by a point more if Bradford can play over Case Keenum. After a good week against the Bucs, the Vikings offense only managed seven points on the Lions with Keenum at the helm this week. Dalvin Cook is also now out, so I think we see initial action hit the board with the Bears.