NFL Opening Line Report: Week 1
By JOSH NAGEL
Sports bettors never cease to be impressed by the accuracy of NFL pointspreads.
Those who make the numbers, such as Las Vegas icon Jimmy Vaccaro, don’t understand what all the fuss is about.
Although spreads for Week 1 in the NFL have been on the board for several months, Vaccaro said there has been little cause to warrant a significant adjustment on any particular game.
“For guys who make numbers, this is not rocket science,” said Vaccaro, director of sports operations at Lucky’s Race and Sports Book. “The numbers they come up with are very solid to begin with. From where we started to where we are now, nothing major has changed.”
Perhaps the biggest surprise thus far is an unlikely contrast between where the action has come from and where it hasn’t. Vaccaro said early NFL line movement was prompted by a couple of unlikely sources.
The Cincinnati Bengals have moved from -2 to -3.5 for their opening day home game against the Denver Broncos. It is a surprising change, Vaccaro noted, for a game involving two teams he expects to struggle.
“For a lot of reasons, it looks like the Broncos are in for a down season,” said Vaccaro, noting the trade of quarterback Jay Cutler and inexperience of first-year coach Josh McDaniels. “The Bengals are looking to bounce back, but you’re betting on Carson Palmer, who’s barely played one down in the exhibition season, and hasn’t played at all in nearly a year.”
Another move that caught Vaccaro’s attention was a steam on the Dallas Cowboys that moved the line from -3 to -4.5 when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
“Now, I think the Cowboys are a 9-7 team,” Vaccaro said. “But we took a (big) bet on them, so we have to adjust to reflect that.”
By contrast, Minnesota’s signing of quarterback Brett Favre did little to change the oddsmaker’s view of the Vikings’ Week 1 visit to the Cleveland Browns. Although the opening number has moved from Minnesota -2.5 to – 3.5, most of the Vikings money already was in the register before No. 4 pulled on a purple jersey.
“The Vikings got a little attention after the Favre thing,” Vaccaro said. “However, we didn’t want to screw with that number too much.”
Philadelphia’s high-profile signing of troubled quarterback Michael Vick hasn’t had much influence on the Eagles’ Week 1 trip to face the Carolina Panthers. The game opened as a pick’em and has seen plenty of two-way action, Vaccaro said. The Panthers are now at -1 in his sports book.
Another line oddsmakers are wary of moving is the NFL’s season-opener between the Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers and the visiting Tennessee Titans, who had the league’s best regular-season record last year at 13-3. The Steelers opened as a 5-point favorite and currently sit at -5.5.
“We knew from the start that we couldn’t make the Steelers any higher than -6,” Vaccaro said. “Anything else would provide a bargain on the Titans, and there would be some smart guys waiting to jump on it.”
Week 1 concludes with a pair of prime-time games that already have seen some substantial action, and Vaccaro anticipates strong sentiment for the favorite in both. The New England Patriots, bolstered by the return of Tom Brady at quarterback, have moved from -10 to -10.5 over the visiting Buffalo Bills and the San Diego Chargers, who opened as a 7-point chalk, have moved to a 9-point favorite over the host Oakland Raiders on Monday Night Football.
In each case, the movement has as much to do with the futility of the underdog as the strength of the chalk, Vaccaro said. The Bills have fired their offensive coordinator after their no-huddle offense morphed into a no-offense huddle, and there are rumors that coach Dick Jauron’s job is in imminent jeopardy. The Raiders, outscored 76-28 in their past two exhibition games, have looked as though they believe the preseason is one long non-contact drill.
“You’ll see money on the Patriots until they prove everyone wrong,” Vaccaro said. “Brady looks OK; Terrell Owens hasn’t played, and Trent Edwards has looked horrendous. It’s possible the line could close at 11.5 or 12.
“The Raiders really have been dismal, and the Chargers might be healthier than they have been in a long time. The line is at 9 now, but might close at 10 or higher. We’re still waiting to take a bet on them.”
Vaccaro hasn’t had to wait to see plenty of public sentiment against woeful clubs such as the Raiders and the Detroit Lions, who went winless last season. The Lions, who have named top draft pick Matthew Stafford as their opening-day quarterback, opened as 11-point underdogs to the New Orleans Saints. The line has moved to New Orleans -13, and the oddsmaker said he wouldn’t be surprised to see it close at -14.
“People always like to bet against teams that finished bad last year and hope that it will carry over,” Vaccaro said. “You always know bettors will show a predominance of the left side of the parlay card (where favorites are listed) against bad teams.”
Rounding out the Week 1 NFL slate is a slew of games that haven’t received a significant amount of action on either side.
They include the Miami Dolphins against the Atlanta Falcons (opened: Falcons -4.5; current: -4); Baltimore Ravens against the Kansas City Chiefs (opened: Ravens -8.5; current: off because of injury to Matt Cassel); Houston Texans against the New York Jets (opened: Texans -4; current: Texans -4.5); Jacksonville Jaguars against the Indianapolis Colts (opened: Colts -7; current: Colts -7); Arizona Cardinals against the San Francisco 49ers (opened: Cardinals -6.5; current: Cardinals -6.5); New York Giants against the Washington Redskins (opened: Giants -6; current: Giants -6.5); Seattle Seahawks against the St. Louis Rams (opened: Seahawks -7; current: Seahawks -7.5); Green Bay Packers against the Chicago Bears (opened: Packers -3; current: Packers -3.5).