NFL Opening Line Report Week 1

NFL Opening Line Report Week 1
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Each week at BangTheBook.com, we’re going to do something called the Opening Line Report for both college football and the NFL. As we saw last week, the College Football Opening Line Report was a bit of a misnomer because lines had been out for all of the Week 1 games for quite some time. We’re dealing with the same thing in the NFL this week, since Week 1 numbers have been out for upwards of four months.

The key difference is that limits are relatively low that far in advance. Now that game week is here, limits will be steadily increasing until they reach a peak on Sunday morning. We’ve seen some initial positions taken by the influential bettors in the marketplace, but these numbers have been posted through free agent signings, rookie minicamps, training camp, and the preseason. Injuries, suspensions, and other things that influence the lines have happened in that span. So, while we don’t want to wipe the slate totally clean on game week, we want to revisit these numbers with a clear mind and a different level of focus.

As I mentioned last week in the first College Football Opening Line Report, action over the summer is predominantly handicapper vs. oddsmaker. Now, it will be handicapper vs. handicapper, handicapper vs. oddsmaker, handicapper vs. bookmaker, and handicapper vs. the general public. We’re going to see a lot of action this week as public bettors pull back the purse strings to open the bankroll up once again. That will happen later in the week.

For now, let’s look at some openers and some of the movers as we dig into Week 1 of the 2017 NFL season:

Tampa Bay at Miami (+2.5, 45) – While 2.5 is the prevailing number in the market, Bovada is dealing a 3 and so is the Greek, so both sharper and public books are seeing some preference to the Buccaneers. As you look at the odds screen and the line history, you can see that moment when the number shifted. It was back in mid-August. A skill that amateur handicappers need to work on is determining the nature of a line move. To me, this isn’t a move predicated on betting action. This is the bookmakers adjusting to the loss of Tannehill.

I don’t believe sharps have taken a true position on this game. There are some that believe Jay Cutler can have success with this Miami offense. There are others that aren’t so sure, especially about his commitment to football. While this looks like a fairly significant line move, it isn’t. It’s simply an adjustment to an injury situation. We’ll get a better picture of the sharp position as the week goes along. My sneaking suspicion is that we have a public vs. sharp split, with Joe Sixpack on the Bucs and the sharps taking a shot on the Dolphins after a disappointing preseason for the Tampa Bay.

Oakland at Tennessee (-2, 51) – Unlike the Sunshine State Showdown, this appears to be a game with a true position to me. Sharp players have been looking to fade the Raiders since they started the 2016 season 5-1 in games where they were outgained by the opposition. The Raiders gave up over 6,000 yards last season and went 12-4 despite being outgained for the year. The underlying and advanced metrics did not see the Raiders as a playoff team, therefore most influential bettors have taken a stance for this season.

The Titans needed to improve the secondary and they have. They have an offense full of upside led by Marcus Mariota. Both quarterbacks are coming off of significant injuries, so I don’t think that we have seen the true reach of the betting market in terms of dictating this line, but Tennessee opened an underdog over the summer and could very well close a field goal favorite this week.

Arizona at Detroit (+1.5, 47.5) – You have to go back to early June to see when the Lions were last favored by 2.5 points in this game, but the early market money has been on the Cardinals for this trip to Ford Field. Above, I talked about how the Raiders are viewed as a team in line for regression. Well, the Cardinals are the opposite. Arizona posted a 7-8-1 record last season despite finishing with a 9.4-6.6 Pythagorean Win-Loss record. Arizona was sixth in points scored and 14th in points against. Arizona outgained the opposition by nearly 1,000 yards. But, the Cardinals committed 28 turnovers and fell on the wrong side of variance far too many times. Arizona allowed just 4.8 yards per play, which ranked second to the Broncos.

The Lions were a playoff team last year, but got outscored on the season by 12 points. Detroit also went from 9-4 after Week 14 to 9-7, backed into the playoffs, and then managed just 231 yards against Seattle in the Wild Card Game. To be fair, Detroit has an arrow pointing up in some respects. They were 30th in average starting field position, but first in time of possession and plays per drive, so some more takeaways would help, but that’s one of those things that you need to see to believe. The sharp market has taken several positions on Arizona, including the Cardinals’ win total, some division, conference, and Super Bowl futures, and here in Week 1.

New York Jets at Buffalo (-9, 40.5) – It should sound alarm bells for you when you see a team favored by anywhere from 8.5 to 9.5 in the NFL with a total of just 40.5. It is very clear that nobody expects anything from the Jets offense. Josh McCown has been named the starting quarterback, which obviously isn’t going to move the needle. Quincy Enunwa, the team’s best wide receiver, is out for the year. Add in the trade of Sheldon Richardson that signals what the goals are for this season, and you get one of the few notable movers from last weekend.

The thing that is really interesting about this game and this line is that the Bills really aren’t that great either. They scored 35 points in their first three playoff games before having success in Week 4 with Nathan Peterman. Tyrod Taylor’s already on the hot seat and is also dealing with a concussion. Sammy Watkins got traded. Jordan Matthews is questionable. Anquan Boldin retired. This is going to be a fun line to watch throughout the week since nothing about the Bills screams that they can blow a team out. And, yet, that’s basically the goal with a line nearing double digits.

Philadelphia at Washington (PK, 47.5) – All summer long, the Fighting Carson Wentzes were an underdog in Week 1. That changed late last week when the market shifted to a pick ‘em. The Redskins do look different this season, with Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson on the outsides instead of Pierre Garcon and DeSean Jackson. The Eagles were +36 in point differential last season and looked more like a 9-7 team than a 7-9 team. As you can tell, that is a theme when it comes to these Week 1 line moves. Teams that underachieved last season are taking on some money and those that overachieved are not. The Redskins pretty much finished exactly as they should have, but the loss of offensive coordinator Sean McVay to the head coaching gig in Los Angeles is a factor. Defensive coordinator Joe Barry also moved on.

It probably doesn’t hurt that even the most seasoned sharp bettor can fall victim to some recency bias. Remember that the Eagles looked excellent in the first three games of last season and then fell apart. The Redskins struggled at the outset and now have two new coordinators. All of these things are considerations when lines and markets are soft. We’ll see how the action goes this week.

Carolina at San Francisco (+5.5, 48) – Over the course of the summer, influential bettors moved the Panthers from -3.5 or -4 up to -6. Now that game week is here, we have actually seen a little bit of investment on the underdog to take away the key number of +6 and bump the line down into that dead zone between +4 and +6. Of course, five isn’t nearly as dead of a number now with the extra point moved back. Still, the summer position on Carolina made a lot of sense, as it is hard to find a bigger underachiever from last season than the Panthers. Carolina was just 6-10 and fell apart defensively. Injuries didn’t help. The Panthers were immediately pegged as a bounce back team.

The 49ers have a new head coach in Kyle Shanahan and they don’t have a lot of offensive talent. Brian Hoyer is familiar with the Shanahan system from his time in Cleveland, but the upside is certainly capped with a guy like him. CJ Beathard may even take this job at some point. The 49ers got better as the preseason went along, which is why I think there was a little bit of buyback on the home dogs as we rolled into Week 1.

New York Giants at Dallas (-3.5, 47.5) – The biggest betting handle of the week will probably be on this NFC East showdown between the Giants and Cowboys. With Ezekiel Elliott’s status up in the air, we’ve seen some adjustments on this line. Like the Buccaneers/Dolphins game, I don’t believe the move down to be a true position. I believe the initial grabs on the Giants over the summer at +6.5, +6, and on down to +4.5 were positions taken at that time, but this number falling to 3.5 is more of an indication on what Ezekiel Elliott’s absence would mean to the line. He’s probably worth a half-point to a point to the number, hence the adjusted line we see now.

The Cowboys have asked for the league to make a decision on Elliott’s appeal process by Monday. If Elliott is cleared to play, we will probably see -4 come back. Some public shops will likely go to 4.5. As far as a position over the course of the week, I’m honestly not sure. Keep in mind that this number, in all likelihood, includes Odell Beckham Jr. being out, so the books have already accounted for that key loss.

Indianapolis at Los Angeles Rams – No line is out on this game with Andrew Luck’s status up in the air. He seems very unlikely to play. The Colts will probably use Scott Tolzien instead of newly-acquired Jacoby Brissett. The Colts opened a three-point favorite over the summer under the expectation that Luck would play. I’d expect -2 or -1.5 now, given the apparent severity of his injuries, if he does play. If he doesn’t, the Rams will be a short favorite, maybe as high as a field goal.