NFL Opening Line Report: Week 10
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
The marquee matchup of Week 10 in the NFL features two teams that should be of playoff caliber, but only one actually playing that way right now. Covers takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (no line)
Defending NFC champion Atlanta won its first three games SU, but hasn’t looked good since then. The Falcons (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) are on a 1-4 SU skid, failing to cash in all five of those games. In Week 9, Atlanta had another lackluster offensive effort, unable to score in the middle two quarters of a 20-17 loss at Carolina as a 3-point favorite.
Dallas has won three in a row SU and ATS to get its season back on track. The Cowboys (5-3 SU and ATS) dispatched Kansas City 28-17 Sunday as a 2.5-point home chalk.
Bookmaker.eu is sitting tight on a line for this game, as the Ezekiel Elliott suspended/not suspended chronicles continue this week.
“It feels like the Cowboys are finally catching their stride offensively, and the defense looked like a different, competent unit against Kansas City,” Cooley said. “That said, we have to wait to see what the next chapter is in the Ezekiel Elliott saga, because he certainly is worth something to the line. If he is ultimately suspended, Dallas will be a short underdog at Atlanta.”
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7)
New England is tied for the best record in the AFC and coming off its bye week. The Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) have won four straight (3-1 ATS), including a 21-13 home victory over the Los Angeles Chargers giving 6.5 points in Week 8.
Denver is a hot mess at quarterback, and even its normally reliable defense struggled in Week 9. The Broncos (3-5 SU, 2-5-1 ATS) got trampled at Philadelphia, 51-23 as a 7-point underdog.
“Denver is in one of those situations where one side has given up because the other side isn’t performing,” Cooley said. “The offense is a mess, and there doesn’t seem to be a solution in sight. That said, you have to expect one of the Broncos’ best efforts here on Sunday night. This spread will likely head north, but there will be some value players on the home ‘dog with backs against the wall.”
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Redskins (+2.5)
Minnesota has a third-string quarterback and a first-place record heading into Week 10. The Vikings (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), behind Case Keenum, have won four in a row and five of six, rolling past Cleveland 33-16 as an 11-point favorite in Week 8 before getting a bye this past week.
Washington (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a two-game SU and four-game ATS slide in Week 9. The Redskins got a late touchdown to upset Seattle 17-14 getting 8 points on the road.
“Early sharp action came in on the Redskins, knocking this down to +2 quickly,” Cooley said. “Hats go off to Jay Gruden and his staff for staying competitive amid all of the injuries. It will be interesting to see if that ragtag offensive line can hold up against one of the best defenses in the league.”
New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)
New Orleans has to be among the bigger surprises this season. The Saints (6-2 SU and ATS) have won six in a row, covering every time after an 0-2 SU and ATS start. In Week 9, Drew Brees and Co. rolled Tampa Bay 30-10 as a 7-point chalk.
Buffalo (5-3 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) went to MetLife Stadium last Thursday night as a 3-point favorite against the New York Jets. But the Bills left with a 34-21 outright loss.
“Everyone is back on the Saints’ wagon with the win streak continuing, but we’re still just not sold on this team being completely turned around from what it’s been in recent years,” Cooley said. “The Buffalo offense will have a new weapon on display, and it feels like this spread should be closer to a pick ‘em. Early smart money was on the Bills.”
That money quickly moved Buffalo to +2.
NFL Line Watch Week 10
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet now
Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (+10)
Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that Ben Roethlisberger was questioning whether he wanted to even play football? Things have certainly changed, as the Steelers now are riding a three-game win streak, have taken complete control of the AFC North and at 6-2 are tied with New England for the best record in the AFC. Pittsburgh will play this one coming off its bye week against a Colt team with a newbie quarterback and is in no way prepared to compete against elite teams. The line on this one has already crossed the Rubicon from 9.5 to 10, and is unlikely to change again unless heavy money comes crashing down on one side or the other.
Game to wait on
Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11)
DeShaun Watson’s season-ending injury and subsequent loss to the Colts this past Sunday has rocked the Texans into considering signing Colin Kaepernick, a move that would do the league a solid by taking pressure off outspoken owner Bob McNair and putting an end to the QB’s embarrassing suit against the NFL. The Texans are in a deep hole at any rate, and now they have to contend with the most surprising team in the league. The Rams (6-2 SU and 6-2 ATS) have morphed into an offensive power, scoring the most points in the NFC West by a 74-point margin, and the second-most in the NFC. There are some moving parts in this line, not the least of which is to find early betting reaction to LA’s 51-point outburst against the Giants this past Sunday. The line probably hasn’t firmed up yet.
Total to watch
New York Giants at San Francisco (42)
The Niners will eventually turn their team over to Jimmy Garoppolo, so what better place to open up their new toy than at home against one of the worst defensive teams in the entire league? The 42 number is obviously a nod to both team’s offensive shortcomings, but it ignores the fact that neither has shown any interest in stopping opponents. San Francisco is ranked 27th overall defensively, and the Giants are 30th.
Opening Line Report - Week 10
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Here are your opening betting numbers for Week 10 of the NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 3:30 p.m. ET on Monday, with differences among sports books and early moves noted.
Thursday, Nov. 9
Seattle Seahawks (-6, 41.5) at Arizona Cardinals
There’s been early interest in the Drew Stanton-led Cardinals, the opening number of Seattle -6.5 bet down to -5 at CG Technology. Multiple other books moved from -6.5 to -6, and -6 is the consensus number as of this Monday afternoon writing.
Sunday, Nov. 12
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5, 42.5) at Washington Redskins
Like the Thursday nighter above, this Sunday afternoon tilt saw early money show up on the home underdog, with openers Washington +2.5 bet down to +2, and +2s adjusted to 1.5s.
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3 even, 41)
While an adjustment to this number based on Brett Hundley’s performance Monday night should not surprise bettors, sharp players at CG Technology laid Bears -3, Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management at the book, said in a text message.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 44.5) and Indianapolis Colts
Double-digit road favorites don’t come around often in the NFL – in fact, if this spread holds, it would mark just the second time this season it’s happened. The Steelers were in the same role in the first occurrence, failing to cover as 10-point favorites in a 21-18 win at Cleveland in Week 1.
As for next week’s number, the +10.5s that have flashed on Vegas boards have been snapped up by underdog players.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-4, 41) at Los Angeles Chargers
The Wynn opened Jacksonville -3.5 and was bet up to -4.5 before a move back to -4. While most shops are at 4, Chargers backers can get +4.5 at William Hill.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (pick ‘em, 42)at New York Jets
With Monday’s news that the Bucs are shutting down Jameis Winston, meaning Ryan Fitzpatrick will start against his old mates, the Westgate SuperBook installed the Jets as one-point road favorites. The Bucs were -4.5 on the Westgate’s look-ahead lines hung a week ago. CG Technology is dealing Tampa -1, an adjustment from an opener of -1.5, so we’ll split the difference and call this game a pick ‘em. Make a note that Bucs wide receiver Mike Evans will be suspended for this contest.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-5.5, 40.5)
Tennessee -5.5 appears to be the right number, as the Wynn was bet from 5 to 5.5, and the Westgate went from 6 to 5.5.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5, 46.5) at Buffalo Bills
New Orleans opened -1.5 at the Westgate on Sunday night, but line was driven up to a field goal at that shop by Monday. That’s the high end of the market, with other shops dealing 2.5s and even 2s.
The Saints’ current form is among the best in the league – they’ve won six in a row straight-up (5-1 ATS) – but they visit a Bills club that’s a perfect 4-0 SU (3-0-1 ATS) at home.
Unbeaten at home or not, John Avello, chief oddsmaker at the Wynn, doesn’t like the inconsistency that seems to be inherent in Buffalo.
“The game at the Jets last week was awful (a 34-21 loss). They have a couple of good efforts in there before that, but they also lost to Cincinnati,” Avello said. “You’re not gonna get a good handle on this team , you’re just not. They’re gonna play well at times , and at times they’re gonna throw in clunkers – you just don’t know when that’s gonna be.”
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-10,41)
CG Technology bumped this number from Detroit -9.5 to -10.5 in early wagering, and the Wynn from -9.5 to -10, while the Westgate bounced between -9.5 and -10.
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5, 46.5)
This number opened big and got bet even bigger, from -10.5 to -12 at William Hill. There’s a mix of 11s, 11.5s and 12s as of Monday.
Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5 even, 51)
Dallas has won and covered three straight, Atlanta has lost four of five and failed to cash any tickets in that five-game stretch, but the betting market isn’t buying these recent runs. Sharp money on Atlanta -3 showed up at CG, per Simbal, and William Hill was among the books that adjusted from -3 to -3.5 during early betting action.
“That whole offensive magic that Atlanta had last year is just not there right now,” Avello said. “Is it gonna show up? The bettors keep thinking that it’s gonna show up at some point, it just hasn’t yet. They went from a dog to a favorite against Carolina last week, and it wasn’t there again (the Falcons lost 20-17 as 3-point chalk).”
Avello pointed out, though, that the Falcons won five of their last six regular-season games last year and seven of their last nine, before going on to the Super Bowl.
“Maybe that’s what they’re going to do again, but I just don’t see it,” Avello said. “Whatever they had last year they don’t have now, at least through the first eight games of the year. We’ll see if they have it for the next eight.”
New York Giants at San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, 42)
As Giants coach Ben McAdoo contemplates benching Eli Manning, the Wynn adjusted its line from Giants -1 on Sunday night to San Francisco -1.5 by Monday.
New England Patriots (-7.5 even, 46.5) at Denver Broncos
The Wynn took wiseguy action at an opener of Denver +7.5, prompting a move to +7.5 even, Avello said. This despite the Patriots coming off four straight wins and then a bye week visiting an out-of-sorts Broncos team.
“Can they put together a good effort at home? Darn right they can,” Avello said of the Broncos. “They’ve done it in the past. But things aren’t going in a positive direction right now.”
Monday, Nov. 13
Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9, 40)
Most of the early interest has been on Carolina, the number bet from -8.5 to -9 at multiple shops, although Caesars moved in the other direction, from Dolphins +9 to +8.
NFL Opening Line Report Week 10
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Week 10 lines are out in the NFL and there are already some very interesting numbers and line movements. As the season goes along, a clear top tier and a clear bottom tier have formed, with a lot of teams stuck in the middle with varying levels of success. Over the last couple of weeks, favorites have been strong bets. There are some very big numbers on the board this week, as we have very few spreads sitting around traditional key numbers.
That will be one of many things that we can look for during the week. As for now, let’s take a look at the initial numbers and the moves in our Week 10 Opening Line Report.
Seattle (-6, 41.5) at Arizona – Public bettors are backing the Seahawks early in the week, with the Cardinals taking the sharp investment. We’ve seen this number come down from the Bookmaker opener of 6.5 to as low as 5.5 as shops like BetOnline and Pinnacle. As the total falls, so does the spread, which makes a lot of given the correlation of a bigger spread and a total in the low 40s. This will be a good one to watch because sharp players will likely bump it down and teaser players will grab Seattle in a virtual pick ‘em role.
Minnesota (-1.5, 42.5) at Washington – Hmm. Washington won outright in Seattle, but the Redskins managed 70 of their 244 yards on the game-winning drive for a touchdown. Minnesota is off of the bye, which has been a buy sign for teams in the NFL. This week, the Vikings are getting bet against, so the initial view is that the market has overadjusted to the bye week. This game is -1 and pick ‘em at a couple of places, but DSI Sportsbook is holding at -2 at time of writing. It looks like Washington will close a favorite, which may seem significant after the opener of -2.5, but it really doesn’t take a whole lot to cross zero when -3 has not been involved.
Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville (-4.5, 41) – The Chargers are another team off of the bye, but they aren’t getting much love either. Most shops are either dealing -4 with extra juice on the Jaguars or the full 4.5. Leonard Fournette should be back after violating team rules, but Jacksonville didn’t even need him against Cincinnati. As this number hits 4.5 everywhere, there won’t be a whole lot of resistance before it gets to -6. We saw Jacksonville take significant money last week against Cincinnati and could see the same this week against the Chargers, who have a bit better of an offense than the Bengals, but a weaker defense.
New York Jets at Tampa Bay (OTB) – The Jets have Josh McCown, minus receiver Jeremy Kerley, who popped a positive PED test, and the Bucs are sitting Jameis Winston down in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick. 5Dimes was one of the few books with a line open and it was pick ‘em until the Winston announcement. Mike Evans has also been suspended. The Jets are now road favorites at 5Dimes and the rest of the market should agree.
Cincinnati at Tennessee (-5.5, 40.5) – Speaking of Cincinnati, what a mess. The early move on this game was likely a reaction to the expectation that AJ Green would be suspended for putting Jalen Ramsey in a headlock and then throwing punches. He’s likely worth a point or a point and a half to the line, especially on an inept offensive team like the Bengals. As it turns out, he is not suspended, so we’ll see if we get a buyout from some of those bettors.The market came in against Tennessee last week against Baltimore and the fact that Green is not out is interesting in terms of where this number will go.
New Orleans (-2, 46) at Buffalo – Teams coming off of extra rest on Thursday nights have been a great bet. This number did inch down a bit from the opener of -2.5, but we’ll have a lot of guys waiting this one out until later in the week in hopes of grabbing a +3 on Buffalo. Weather could be a factor with Drew Brees going outside, so we’ll have to wait until midweek and see what the weather forecasts are looking like. This will be a sharp vs. public split type of game, so this one merits watching as the week goes along.
Houston at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5, 46.5) – The Texans looked about as bad as they could last week. This team without Deshaun Watson and JJ Watt is a mess. Keep in mind that the Texans with Watson wound up being about a touchdown dog in Seattle, although owner Bob McNair’s comments influenced a line move. The Texans were going to be a dog here anyway, probably in the +3 or +3.5 range with Watson, but Tom Savage looked awful, so here we are. The Rams opened -10 and the market wasted no time laying double digits. When that happens in the NFL, it is hugely significant.
Dallas at Atlanta (-3, 51) – While the Ezekiel Elliott soap opera goes on, and some books have this game off the board as a result, the Cowboys are the preferred sharp side thus far. Bookmaker opened Atlanta -3 (-125) and the Cowboys are now +3 (-118), so we are seeing some indications that this line may bump off of 3 and down to 2.5 as the week goes along. Once we get some more clarity on the Elliott suspension, I’d expect that to be the case.
New York Giants at San Francisco (-1.5, 42.5) – This is a number that oddsmakers had no interest in posting. The Giants are a disaster, but the 49ers are winless and have scored 30 points total over the last three weeks. If San Francisco is going to win a game, it would probably be this one. Ben McAdoo looks like a guy headed for the coaching version of the electric chair and he’s sitting in solitary confinement staring at the walls. We won’t see Jimmy Garoppolo before the bye, in all likelihood, but the CJ Beathard Express is taking on money after the Giants opened a small favorite.
New England (-7.5, 46) at Denver – The Patriots are growing as a favorite for this trip to the Mile High City. Brock Osweiler looked awful in the blowout loss to Philadelphia in what was Denver’s third straight road game. Maybe the friendly confines of the high altitude will help, but the problems run deep with the Broncos. The Patriots are off of a bye and they are getting steamed, so at least some things are normal. This number opened 7 flat (-110) at Bookmaker, which, coincidentally, is one of the few books resisting the move to 7.5 at time of writing.
Miami at Carolina (-9, 39.5) – Let’s all rejoice in the blessings that are the Miami Dolphins on in primetime for the third straight week! Ugh. What’s telling about this game is a total of 39.5 with a spread that is actually 10 at 5Dimes. This basically implies that the Miami team total will be somewhere around 14.5, which seems lofty. Carolina’s defense has been on point lately, even if Cam Newton has not reciprocated with the offense.