NFL Opening Line Report
By Patrick Everson
Covers.com
“No one would’ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are.”
The team at the top of the NFC East is not the one most people expected through 10 weeks of the season. Patrick Everson checks in on the opening line for a key clash involving that team, along with three other Week 11 games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
Philadelphia is certainly one of the top surprise teams of the year, piling up seven consecutive wins en route to the best record in the NFL. The Eagles (8-1 SU, 7-2 ATS) are also coming off their bye week, after dismantling Denver 51-23 as a 7-point favorite in Week 9.
Dallas, which won the NFC East last year with a 13-3 record, can’t seem to regain that form, and it didn’t get any easier in Week 10 without the now-suspended Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys were 3.5-point underdogs at Atlanta and got rolled 27-7.
“No one would’ve anticipated Dallas being an underdog in this game prior to the season starting, or even a few weeks ago, but here we are,” Cooley said. “Philadelphia has made leaping strides this season and is well above the Cowboys in our power ratings. As we all know, JerryWorld doesn’t exactly provide a home-field edge, so the Eagles deserved to be above the field-goal threshold. However, I do expect this will close at a field goal.”
In fact, late Sunday night, the line had already ducked down to 3.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7)
Pittsburgh was among the preseason favorites in the Super Bowl futures book, but hasn’t looked much the part this season. Yet the Steelers are still 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS), after rallying from a 17-3 deficit to post a 20-17 victory at Indianapolis as a 10.5-pint chalk.
Like the Steelers, Tennessee (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) has won four in a row (1-2-1 ATS). The Titans got a last-minute touchdown Sunday to top Cincinnati 24-20, though they fell just short at the betting window as 4.5-point favorites.
“Marcus Mariota looked like his old self this week, while the Steelers slept-walked through an ugly affair,” Cooley said. “Still, we know this Pittsburgh offense can explode any week, and we know that the public is going to back the Steelers through and through. We’ll likely see some serious sharp money on the road ‘dog.”
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (no line)
New England is definitely rounding into form heading into this neutral-site clash in Mexico City. The Patriots (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) flattened Denver 41-16 in the Sunday nighter, easily cashing as a 7-point road chalk.
Oakland had a bye in Week 10 and is hoping to climb back to .500 in what many observers thought would be a much better season. The Raiders (4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) edged Miami 27-24 in Week 9, pushing as a 3-point road favorite.
Since the Patriots were in the Sunday nighter, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on the opening line until Monday.
“If everything goes accordingly, we’ll look to make the Pats around 6-point chalk,” Cooley said. “Something just isn’t right with the Raiders these days.”
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
In Week 10, Atlanta finally looked a little more like the team that went to the Super Bowl last year. The Falcons (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) pulled away from Dallas in the second half for a 27-7 victory laying 3.5 points at home.
Seattle comes into this Monday night matchup with a little more rest, having played the Week 10 Thursday nighter. In that contest, the Seahawks (6-3 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) held off Arizona 22-16 to push as a 6-point fave. However, Seattle lost superstar cornerback Richard Sherman for the rest of the year, due to a ruptured Achilles tendon.
“We’re going to find out very quickly how much the Seahawks miss Sherman. My guess is a ton,” Cooley said. “They already had ample offensive deficiencies, and now there’s a gaping hole in the secondary. If not for Russell Wilson, this would be one of the worst teams in the NFL. On the other side, is Atlanta finally hitting its stride?”
NFL Line Watch Week 11
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet now
New England at Oakland (+5.5)
Lots of commentators would like to take back what they said about the Patriots when the Bill Belichick AC was treading water at 2-2. New England now is tied with the Steelers for the best record in the AFC at 7-2 after showing no mercy on Sunday against Denver, and now will get the benefit of a neutral field (Mexico City) in a “road” game against the Raiders. It’s good to be the king, no? And the Patriots are doing this (five straight wins, three straight covers) with several key players out. Doesn’t seem to matter, as long as their 40-year-old quarterback is upright. NE will start to attract lots of money as the season winds down, and anything under a 7 is attractive.
Game to wait on
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota (-2.5)
Used to be you could pencil in the Packers to win the NFC North, but Aaron Rodgers’s injury has opened a large door for the Vikings, and Minny has taken full advantage with five straight wins. The Vikes have a great opportunity to nail down the division over a five-day period starting Sunday against the Rams. A win, couple with a victory over Detroit on Thanksgiving, could just about lock down the North. And they’re doing it with re-tread QB Case Keenum, who threw for 302 yards and four TDs in the Vikings’ win over Washington on Sunday. If you like the Rams in this one, hang on because bettors will probably jump at 2.5 and some lines will be bet up to a full field goal.
Total to watch
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (44)
Huge game for both division leaders. The Steelers need to keep pace with the red-hot Patriots ahead of their mid-December showdown in Pittsburgh in mid-December, and the Titans are desperate to get the Jaguars off their backs in a surprising AFC South race (they’re both 6-3). While Pittsburgh and Tennessee are both solid and winning, neither has had an offensive burst in the last month. The Titans are averaging under 20 in their last three, while Pittsburgh has averaged 22 in its last four. Turnovers decide a lot of games in the NFL – especially close games – so expect both teams to keep things pretty conservative in this one. Even at a moderate number like 44, the under deserves a hard look in this one.
Opening Line Report - Week 11
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Here are the early betting numbers for Week 11 of the 2017 NFL season. Point-spreads are the Las Vegas consensus as of Monday at noon, and totals are from William Hill U.S.
Thursday, Nov. 16
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburg Steelers (-7 even, 44)
While the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened Pittsburgh -6.5 before a quick move to -7 and then to -7 (even), CG Technology took a limit bet of $3,000 from a respected player on Tennessee +7, prompting a move to +7 (-120), according to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG.
Sunday, Nov. 19
Detroit Lions (-3, 42) at Chicago Bears
Like for the Thursday nighter discussed above, early sharp money showed up on the 'dog at CG for this NFC North clash. The book moved from Bears +3 to +3 (-120) after that bet, Simbal said.
Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 44) at New York Giants
Las Vegas’ first number on this game of Kansas City -13.5, hung at the Westgate, was bet down to -11.5 within 20 minutes Sunday night and to -11 on Monday morning. Westgate manager Ed Salmons said that numbers from his shop’s group of oddsmakers ranged from 10.5 to 13.5, and they weren’t concerned about early money that came in on the huge home underdog.
“We decided with Andy Reid’s record off the bye to use the high end,” Salmons said of the Westgate’s opening line. “If we write a couple of dollars now on the Giants, it will probably be about the only money we write on the Giants.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-3)
CG Tech inched from Miami -3 down to -3 (even) during early action, and the number is as cheap as -2.5 at some offshore locales.
Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 38) at Green Bay Packers
The Westgate hung Baltimore -3 (even) and moved Sunday night to -2.5, the number at which most Vegas shops opened. While the Packers on Sunday got their first win with backup quarterback Brett Hundley, 23-16 at Chicago, Simbal believes the Ravens are deserving of the road favorite status in this spot, at least based on the lack of early action.
“We’ll find out soon enough if they bet it,” he said. “I would think yes, because that was not one of the games that they hit right away. If the number was that much off, these guys would have bet it, if not at our place, then somewhere else.”
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 46)
The line at the Westgate for this key NFC showdown seesawed from Minnesota -2.5 to -1.5 and back to -2.5 in early wagering at the Westgate. A line south of 3 indicates the Rams are rated by the betting market as a better team than the Vikings, a notion Simbal isn’t sure he buys.
“I kind of like what the Vikings have going on more than the Rams, but I’m probably in the minority there,” Simbal said. “I’d be hesitant to take the Rams in this spot. It seems to be a better spot for the Vikings than the Rams.”
Simbal’s opinion is partly based on Sunday’s games, as the Vikings gave up 30 points at Washington but still coasted to a win, while it took the Rams more than half the game to get going at home against the Texans.
“The Rams covered easily today, but they weren’t great until the middle of the third quarter,” Simbal said.
While Los Angeles’ 32.9 points per game is tops in the NFL, Salmons said we’re about to learn more about the Rams. After next Sunday’s game at Minnesota, they host the red-hot Saints in Week 12.
“It’s obvious that all the Rams do is score a lot of points and win. They’ve been doing it for a long time now. But a lot of times it’s against bad competition, so this will be the first real test for them,” Salmons said of their upcoming game at Minnesota. “They’re going into probably the hardest environment they’ve been in this year. Minnesota’s going to have a jacked up crowd, so we’ll see how good the Rams are, but they’re getting a ton of respect with this point-spread.”
Arizona Cardinals (-1.5) at Houston Texans
While CG opened Arizona -1.5 and moved to -1 on Sunday night, William Hill U.S. opened pick ‘em and moved to Arizona -1.5. Seems Cardinals backup quarterback Drew Stanton is getting more respect than the Texans’ Tom Savage.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5, 38) at Cleveland Browns
The Wynn opened Jacksonville -8 but joined the rest of the crowd at -7.5 within the first few minutes of wagering Sunday night. No matter how many points bookmakers are gifting the home 'dog, it takes gumption to back the Browns, who are not only winless but have cashed just twice all season.
Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-7.5, 51)
There have been Washington +8s that have showed up on Vegas boards (Coasts, Westgate), but those opportunities have been snapped up by underdog bettors.
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-4., 44)
While most shops remain at Chargers -4, the Wynn moved from -4 to -4.5 on Sunday night. After two straight duds, the Bills’ record has dropped to 5-4. The Chargers’ 3-6 record, meanwhile, is misleading, according to Salmons, who puts their defense among the best in the NFL.
“The Chargers defense is so good right now, it’s ridiculous how good they are,” Salmons said, “and this team continues to lose in ways that are just impossible. They’re 3-6, and they easily, easily could be 7-2 or 8-1. That team has so much talent, it’s just absurd, and they’re 3-6, which is a joke.”
Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos (-2.5/-120, 40)
The Westgate opened Denver -2.5 (-120) and moved to -3 on Sunday, before the Broncos’ latest in a long string of disasters – a 41-16 primetime loss at home to New England. The shop reopened Denver -2.5 on Monday morning with a return to -2.5 (-120), the original number, about 90 minutes later.
New England Patriots (-5.5, 51) vs. Oakland Raiders
This is the matchup many of us were anticipating and hoping for in the AFC playoffs last season, but Derek Carr’s injury eased the Patriots’ path. The Raiders aren’t in nearly the form they were in then, but coming off a bye and facing a team playing their second straight road game figures to benefit Oakland.
“It’s about as good as a spot as you can get for a team, so it sets up well for Oakland,” Salmons said.
As we spoke during the first quarter of the Pats’ blowout win in Denver on Sunday night, Salmons added, “New England’s not the same team they’ve been, even if they win tonight. When you watch them, you just know there’s something wrong, it’s obvious.”
Said Simbal, “I still think it’s going to be all Patriots money with the public. The public has been backing the Patriots slowly but surely the last three, four weeks, and they’ve cashed most of them.”
While the notion Simbal puts forth portends the line growing ahead of kickoff in Mexico City, William Hill is dealing Pats -6.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3/-120, 48) at Dallas Cowboys
Two bets from respected players came in Sunday night laying Philly -3 (-120) at CG, prompting a move to -3 (-125). The Westgate opened Eagles -3.5 with a tweak to -3.5 (even).
The Cowboys were not only without running back Ezekiel Elliott on Sunday in Atlanta, they were also missing Tyron Smith, one of the best left tackles in the league. QB Dak Prescott was sacked eight times, six by Adrian Clayborn, in the Falcons’ 27-7 win.
“Dallas looked pretty ordinary on offense today without Zeke and Smith, and the Eagles have been getting so much respect all year,” Simbal said.
Salmons agreed, “Dallas looked like a different team (Sunday).”
Monday, Nov. 20
Seattle Seahawks (-3 even, 45) at Atlanta Falcons
The Westgate is dealing Seattle -3, but the line is drifting in Atlanta’s direction, sitting Seattle -3 (even) at some shops and -2.5 at Treasure Island.
While the Seahawks are all kinds of banged up, the Falcons are getting respect with this line, thanks partly to Sunday’s performance against Dallas.
Even with the win over the Cowboys, Salmons said of Atlanta, “It’s just not the same team as last year. The offense is just not the same. It reminds you of New England – you think they can be what they were last year, but they’re just not.”
Instead of the Week 11 Monday nighter being a battle at the top of the NFC, it features a pair of teams that figure to be fighting for a wild-card spot as the season nears its end.
“Once the sharp guys get a sense for where this line may go, then they’ll play around with the number, but to me, this is a tricky one for the public,” Simbal said. “They’re going to have a little trouble figuring out what to do with this one.”
NFL Opening Line Report Week 11
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
The NFL betting market never really seems to change. It always seems to be a difficult, tight, efficient market and beating it is really hard. This season, we’ve seen a much larger number of significant line moves on game days, which has a lot to do with the injury reports and how they seem to be overloaded week after week and game after game.
Even though the bulk of the handle seems to be coming in on Sundays, there are still guys that are out there pouncing on the early numbers in hopes of securing some line value. It is out there, even if it isn’t always easy to find. There have been some early-week line moves for Week 11 and it is always important to take note of this betting action and file it away for safe keeping as you ponder what you want to do throughout the week.
Here is the NFL Opening Line Report for Week 11:
Tennessee at Pittsburgh (-7, 44) – Nobody seems all that interested in backing Pittsburgh at the full seven points. We have seen some books drop down to 6.5 periodically on the overnights and throughout the day on Monday, but there doesn’t seem to be a ton of pure numbers value for those that hit games early in the week. We’ll likely see underdog money hit the board, since Ben Roethlisberger has been pretty vocal about his anti-Thursday Night Football stance.
Detroit (-3, 42) at Chicago – The under and the dog have been the two preferred bets so far for this NFC North rivalry matchup. The line still sits at -3 almost market-wide, but the juice has swung from the Detroit side to the Chicago side at most books. Detroit opened around -115, but now the Bears are as high as -119 in the market at +3. It will take a sharp investor or two to bump this number off of the key number, so we’ll wait and see if we get one.
Kansas City (-10.5, 44) at New York Giants – The Giants took on money last week against San Francisco and fell flat on their collective faces. The Giants are taking money again this week against a Kansas City team off of the bye. This number opened 12.5 at Bookmaker and we now see 11 at DSI and 10.5 at Pinnacle and BetOnline. The Greek has already made the move to 10. It certainly looks like sharp investment early in the week will be on the Giants, but we see no indications that a move to single digits is coming.
Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota (-2.5, 46) – It doesn’t take a whole lot of investment to move a number from -1.5 to -2.5, but Minnesota is the preferred side of early-week bettors thus far. The Vikings are back at home against a Rams team that was just in New Jersey two weeks ago and struggled with the Texans last week before putting up 21 in the third quarter. Expect to see this number get to 3 before we see some Rams buyback, as the LA crowd can afford to be patient.
Jacksonville (-7.5, 38) at Cleveland – Low total, big spread means math guys are going to pounce on the Browns. The spread for this game opened Jacksonville -9, which was nearly 24 percent of the total. Typically anything over 20 percent is going to be close to an auto play for those that follow the NFL betting market. That is the case here, as the Browns, who played well last week in Detroit, play at home for the first time in several weeks.
Washington at New Orleans (-7.5, 51) – This is an interesting one. The Bills were a bit of a sharp side last week against the Saints. This week, this line is spread out across the map with 5Dimes as high as 9.5, BetDSI at 9, and other shops, including Pinnacle and Matchbook at 7.5. Some books are planning for teaser protection. Others are simply expecting Saints money on the board. This could be a sharp vs. square game when all is said and done.
Buffalo at Los Angeles Chargers (-4, 43.5) – It feels like Operation Fade the Bills will start now. Many were looking at Buffalo’s body of work as unsustainable because of the turnover margin and the fact that Buffalo is a net negative in terms of yards per play. Last week’s blowout loss to the Saints may have been the last time that the market was willing to buy for a little while. The Chargers are coming back home off of an overtime loss, but they are still the preferred side in early betting.
Cincinnati at Denver (-2.5, 40) – Despite back-to-back blowout losses and overall incompetence, the market is thinking about pushing Denver up to a field goal favorite here. All of the 2.5s in the market are accompanied by extra juice on the Broncos. Cincinnati has looked atrocious in its own right, but laying any number with Denver seems hard to do right now. We’ll see where the betting action takes this one.
New England (-6.5, 50.5) vs. Oakland – The Patriots look like the preferred side for this week’s game in Mexico City. One thing that is very interesting to consider is that Mexico City is higher above sea level than Denver. Perhaps that is a betting angle for people this week, since the Patriots just played in Denver. Oakland, however, played in Mexico City last year, so that angle may be a little bit overblown. New England opened -5 for this neutral-site game and some shops have taken the jump up to -6.5 or -7 already.
Philadelphia (-3, 48) at Dallas – Most of the 3.5s that were out there at the open have been gobbled up by the numbers guys as Dallas hosts a Philadelphia team off of the bye. The Cowboys looked pretty bad against the Falcons with Ezekiel Elliott suspended, Tyron Smith out due to injury, and Sean Lee out in the first quarter. Philadelphia is at -3 with extra juice, so this isn’t an earth-shattering move by any means.