By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
The NFC side of the NFL’s Week 13 schedule has a postseason preview sort of feel, as three games match up teams that are in thick of the playoff race.
Here are early betting numbers and analysis for the full 16-game slate.
Thursday, Nov. 30
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-1.5, 44.5)
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook took a sharp bet on Dallas -2.5, the first number hung in Las Vegas on Sunday, but once Dallas -1 was posted offshore, underdog money started showing up.
“We still think the number should be 2.5,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons.
As of this Monday writing, the line ranges from Dallas -1 to -2 around Vegas.
Sunday, Dec. 3
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 42)
CG Technology has flashed Baltimore -2.5 twice, moving to -3 shortly thereafter both times.
San Francisco 49ers at Chicago Bears (3.5, 39.5)
Chicago opened -5.5 at the Westgate, but the number settled at -3.5 throughout town Monday.
Before he’s had a chance to prove himself as a difference maker for San Francisco, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo is worth about 2 points to the betting line from C.J. Beathard, according to Salmons. But that differential could be as much as 6 points once the market gets a good look at the 49ers’ recent acquisition
“Let’s just say the season kept going until Week 21 and Garoppolo was out there and the Niners were actually trying to win games instead of tanking and losing, then the Niners would be favored in this spot,” Salmons said.
Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 47.5)
Atlanta opened -3 (-120) at the Wynn, before sharp money on the dog prompted a move to -3 flat.
The Falcons, though, are drawing interest in the futures market at that bet shop.
“We’ve taken a lot money on Atlanta to win the Super Bowl and the NFC in the past three weeks,” John Avello, director of the Las Vegas Wynn sports book, said “There’s a lot of believers out there that this team is starting to put it together and this is their time. They did this last year, too (coming on in the mid-to-late season). They’re kind of running the same course as last year.”
New England Patriots (-8.5, 49) at Buffalo Bills
Despite the Patriots covering the spread in five straight games, there was early interest on the home 'dog in this AFC East clash, as the number moved from an opener of New England -9 to -8.5 at CG Technology and Golden Nugget, and from -8.5 to -8 at the Westgate and Wynn. By early Monday evening, however, the line had settled at -8.5 throughout Vegas.
Denver Broncos at Miami Dolphins (pick ‘em, 38.5)
This game opened pick ‘em at the Westgate before a move to Denver -1 within the first hour of betting Sunday night, making a team on a seven-game losing streak a favorite on the road. Some shops are dealing Miami -1, though, and others are at pick ‘em.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-7, 42.5)
While most shops opened Tennessee -7 and stayed there through early wagering, CG went against the grain, opening 6.5 on Sunday and moving to 6 on Monday, before joining the crowd at a touchdown.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (-9.5, 40.5)
The opening lines of Jacksonville -8 and -8.5 proved too cheap for the market’s tastes, those numbers getting bet to the -9 and -9.5 range.
Tampa Bay Bucs at Green Bay Packers (no line)
While books await news on Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston before hanging a number on this one, Avello estimated Green Bay -2.5 or -3 should Winston remain out, and pick ‘em if he’s ready to go.
While Packers QB Brett Hundley kept his team, as 14-point underdogs, in Sunday night’s game at Pittsburgh, don’t count Salmons among the convinced.
“Pittsburgh looked like they were trying to lose on defense,” Salmons said. “Some of the plays they were biting on, it looked like there were partying for two weeks and someone told them the night before, ‘You guys gotta game tomorrow.’ They just looked unprepared to play football on the defensive side, embarrassingly so.”
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 44) at New York Jets
Kansas City opened as high as -5.5, at the Wynn, but wiseguys are fading the road favorite that’s lost five of its last six games, betting the line down to -3.5. In fact, the Chiefs are as low as -3 (-120) at MGM Resorts.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-4, 48)
Openers of New Orleans -3.5 have been driven north, as the Saints are -4 at most shops and as high as -4.5.
The Panthers are coming off a 35-27 win at the Jets, but it wasn’t a particularly impressive performance. They were outgained 391-299, had only 17 first downs to the Jets’ 21, and benefited from defensive and special teams touchdowns.
“Carolina is lethargic,” Avello said. “This team has trouble getting first downs, they just play that way. They’ve been playing like that for the past four years.”
Avello is also hesitant to buy into the Saints.
“People think this team is going to go a long way this year. I don’t really think they are,” Avello said. “Drew Brees, I don’t think he’s as sharp as he once was. If he doesn’t get time, then he has problems, and when you get to the playoffs, there’s a lot of teams that aren’t going to give you time.”
Salmons acknowledged the Panthers are a difficult team to figure. Good form can turn to bad from one game to the next in Carolina.
“Carolina is the kind of team when you say, ‘I’m all in on them,’ they play like they did (Sunday),” he said.
Salmons sees this Week 13 NFC South showdown in the Superdome as a good spot for the Saints.
“It’s a really big game for New Orleans after the loss (Sunday to the Rams), and their home field is just so big,” he said. “I would definitely lean Saints, especially if they can get back a cornerback or two.”
Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers (-13, 42.5)
The Chargers, who have won four of their last six games and covered in five of six, have ranged from 12.5- to 13.5-point favorites against the winless Browns, but the number is nestling toward the higher end of that range as early betting settles down.
Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 45.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Early bettors seem to laying 6.5s and taking 7s for this NFC West tilt, and both numbers can still be had as of Monday evening.
New York Giants at Oakland Raiders (-7.5 even, 42.5)
Oakland opened -8.5 at the Westgate, but the number’s been adjusted to -7 (even) at that shop, and there’s been sharp money on the Giants at CG Technology, the price moving from Oakland -7.5 to -7.5 (even).
Philadelphia Eagles (-5, 47) at Seattle Seahawks
The Westgate opened Philly -6, a long way off the -3 Salmons noticed offshore.
“Seattle has a billion injuries on the defensive side, and they beat the 49ers with C.J. Beathard, and somehow that made Seattle back to some great team again?,” Salmons said of the shorter line. “A lot of people have a hard time thinking that Seattle’s not the team that they used to be, and I don’t think they’re close to the team they used to be.”
The number drifted to -4 at the Westgate before walking back up to -5.5, and Salmons sees it continuing to move in the favorite’s direction.
“I think this line is going to close 6, 6.5,” Salmons said. “There’s going be to so much public money on Philadelphia. That’s a non-stop freight train right now as a far as the public. You’ve got New England in the AFC and Philadelphia in the NFC, and all they do is cover every game. The Philadelphia games aren’t even close anymore.”
Avello, though, says the Eagles and their backers should expect a big effort out of the Seahawks.
“This is the whole season for Seattle, “ Avello said. “The whole season rides on this game – whether they stay in the playoff race, whether they’ve got a shot to win the division, this game will tell it. Seattle’s got more motivation to win this football game.”
Monday, Dec.4
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati has beaten Pittsburgh in just one of their nine most recent meetings – and more painful for bettors, Cincy is on a 1-7-1 ATS run against the Steelers – but that hasn’t stopped early money on the dog. Pitt opened -7 at the Westgate and is down to -5.5.