Opening Line Report - Week 15
December 11, 2017
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Here are the opening betting lines for Week 15 of the NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 5:30 p.m. ET on Monday, with early moves and differences among books noted.
Thursday, Dec. 14
Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41) at Indianapolis Colts
After Denver opened -2.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on Sunday, this line bounced as high as -3 and as low as -1.5, before returning to the opener Monday. When -1.5 flashed on the Westgate’s board, the shop took a limit bet on the Broncos, according to Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons.
Saturday, Dec. 16
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-6. 43.5)
There’s been early interest in the road underdog in this NFC North clash, as openers of -6.5 and -7 have been bet down to -6 at most Vegas sports books
Los Angeles Chargers (-2, 45.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite in Vegas, but the Chargers have been bet to the 2-point chalk at some shops.
While the Chiefs have won seven straight in this series, that doesn’t make much of a difference when it comes to booking this game, according to Salmons.
“Zero. They could have beaten them 100 straight times, it doesn’t matter,” Salmons said...The question is can Kansas City build on what they did (in a 26-15 win over Oakland on Sunday). The Chargers have played as well as anyone. At the beginning of the year, they kept losing all these games they had no business losing; now they’re winning these games easily...People don’t realize how good the Chargers defense is, that defense is just incredible. Washington scores against everyone, and they couldn’t even move the ball (in Sunday’s 30-13 loss in L.A.).”
Salmons, meanwhile, anticipates the public being all over the Chargers for next Saturday’s primetime affair, so this number may not be done running.
Sunday, Dec. 17
Philadelphia Eagles (-8, 40) at New York Giants
Despite the loss of Carson Wentz, Philly opened -8.5 at multiple Vegas betting locations, although there’s been some early movement toward the woeful Giants.
“I think it’s more of how had the Giants are,” Salmons said of the Eagles being sizable favorites on the road even without their MVP-candidate quarterback. “(Sunday vs. the Cowboys) was a game for them to put something forward, and they were close for a while and the final score is a little misleading, but the Giants have no offensive presence at all.”
While the Westgate adjusted Philly’s Super Bowl odds from 6/1 to 12/1 in the wake of Wentz’s ACL tear, the team remains well-positioned to grab the top seed in the NFC, and backup quarterback Nick Foles has meaningful experience in the NFL.
“There’s going to be a drop off (from Wentz to Foles),” Salmons said. “The question is, it going to be a 1-point drop off, is it going to be a 2-point drop off, or is it going to be a 7- or 8-point drop off. Right now, I would lean toward the lower end than the higher end – I don’t think the Eagles are going to look helpless.”
Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-2.5, 45)
While the Wynn opened Carolina -1.5 and was bet up to -2.5, and William Hill opened -2.5 and stayed put through early wagering – numbers based on the assumption that Aaron Rodgers will be back – the Westgate is waiting to open this game.
“Green Bay has a history of being ultra-conservative with injured players. Always,” Salmons said. “So until he’s cleared or he’s not cleared and not playing, we’ll wait, because that line’s going to be either 9.5 or 2.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5, 42)
The opening number of Minnesota -10 proved too cheap for the market’s taste, as it was driven up to the 10.5, 11 range at most shops. Coasts, in fact, hung 11.5 as its opener.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (no line)
Tyrod Taylor’s status is uncertain, so there’s no number yet on this AFC East tilt.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11.5, 39)
The Westgate opened Jacksonville -10 but adjusted north to -11.5 later Sunday night, and 11.5 is the number being dealt at most Vegas shops as of this Monday writing, with MGM Resorts offering 12.
Salmons said of the Jags and coach Doug Marrone, “The more you watch them play, the more respect you get for that team. The team’s really good. It shows you what good coaching does.”
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-15.5, 47)
With Josh McCown out for the season with a broken left (non-throwing) hand and Bryce Petty ready to step in, this line opened big and is getting bigger. The Westgate hung -14.5 and moved to -16, while it remains as low as -15 at several shops.
Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4, 44)
Coasts opened Washington -4.5 and moved to -4, while Golden Nugget opened -3.5 and moved to -4. Arizona remains available at +4.5 for gamblers looking to take the points here.
Baltimore Ravens (-7, 40) at Cleveland Browns
A sharp bet showed up on Cleveland +7.5 at CG Technology, vice president of risk Jason Simbal said in a text message, and 7.5s have been adjusted to 7s on multiple betting boards.
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 48)
This key NFC West battle has bounced between Seattle -1.5 and pick ‘em, settling at Seattle -1 at most shops by Monday. The Seahawks being this short a favorite at home indicates the betting market believes the Rams to be a better team, a sentiment with which Salmons agrees, even though Seattle beat the Rams in L.A. in October, 16-10.
“I remember watching the first game and the Rams lost, but you just knew they were the better team,” Salmons said. "People will build a case for Seattle winning, but the line is telling you the Rams are much the better team.”
New England Patriots (-3 even, 54) at Pittsburgh Steelers
There’s a fairly even split of New England -3 (even) and -2.5 around Las Vegas for the game that will likely determine home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs.
“If they play in the playoffs, I don’t see Pittsburgh wining in New England, but if the AFC Championship Game is in Pittsburgh, I could definitely see New England winning there,” Salmons said.
Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2, 44)
There’s been a significant early move on the 49ers, who have won two straight games since inserting Jimmy Garoppolo as their starting QB. The Niners opened a one-point 'dog Sunday at the Westgate and were adjusted to 2.5-point favorites Monday, before a tweak back to -2.
Dallas Cowboys (-3, 45.5) at Oakland Raiders
The Westgate opened Dallas -2.5, higher than most books (the game opened pick ‘em offshore), and by Monday, Dallas was laying a field goal with varying degrees of juice around Las Vegas.
After three straight atrocious offensive performances, Dallas has scored 38 (vs. Washington) and 30 (at the Giants) in consecutive wins.
“They were bad when they were playing good defenses, like the Chargers,” Salmons said of the Cowboys offense. “All of a sudden when they started playing bad defenses, that offense has looked good. The Raiders are certainly no good defense.”
He added of next week’s home dog, “There will be a lot of talk about whether the Raiders will even show up. It’s hard to believe they would play a game for first place against a team (the Chiefs) that had lost (six of seven) and look like a team that was counting down the hours until the end of the season . Zero effort in that game by the Raiders.”
Salmons anticipates heavy public money on Dallas for this primetime kickoff.
Monday, Dec. 18
Atlanta Falcons (-6.5. 48) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Early action has been on Atlanta, as the line has moved from -4.5 to -6.5 at the Westgate. Chalk players can still find Falcons -6 at multiple books.