NFL: Opening Line Report - Week 15

Opening Line Report - Week 15
December 11, 2018
By Joe Williams

The books made a killing in Week 14, as plenty of underdogs were coming through to save the shops. Generally the public sinks money on the favorites, and 'dogs were hitting all over the boards. I am paraphrashing a user I saw post in passing: "Show me a winning parlay ticket. There weren't many."

We have three regular-season weekends to go, and with college football in the rear-view mirror we get Saturday football, in addition to the usual assortment of Sunday activity. If you love betting NFL, this time of the year is right up your alley, as you have four separate days to watch and win.

(Consensus Odds as of Tuesday)

Thursday, Dec. 13

Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 53)

There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game yet, as most shops have held steady at -3 1/2. If you're feeling the Chiefs, Jerry's Nugget had the line drop from -3 1/2 to -3.

This is a game to watch closely in terms of the injury report. The Chargers have RBs Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler as question marks due to injury. If they're down to their third- and fourth-string tailbacks, the Chiefs could have a big advantage and the line might be on the move.

Saturday, Dec. 15

Houston Texans (-6, 41) at New York Jets

The Texans finally saw their nine-game winning streak come to an end last week, but Vegas feels strongly that a new win streak will begin. The line at Atlantis moved from -6 1/2 to -6, as well as Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook. The Jets have a slew of injury issues of their own, including QB Sam Darnold (foot) who might be missing in action.

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-3, 45.5)

The Browns actually resemble an NFL-caliber team after years of futility, led by QB Baker Mayfield. 'The Bake Show' has produced five victories this season, and they're just a half-game back of the Broncos as the teams jockey to stay in the playoff picture. A loss to either likely eliminates them from contention. The line has held steady around -3 at most shops, while Jerry's Nugget dropped the line from -3 1/2 to -3. Westgate SuperBook opened this game at -4, and bettors quickly bet it down to -3, too.

Sunday, Dec. 16

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-8, 44)

The Dolphins are coming off an upset win against the Patriots on the 'Miami Miracle'. The Vikings, meanwhile, were completely listless on offense in a 21-7 loss in Seattle on Monday night.

If you're feeling the 'Fins to do it again, Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -8 1/2, with the Dolphins at +320 on the moneyline. Southpoint and Westgate SuperBook have the game at -8. Offshore some books had the Vikings as high as -9 1/2 to open, but that is likely to drop like a rock.

Oakland Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 46)

The Raiders were a big friend of the books, cashing straight-up as a double-digit underdog in the Black Hole against the Steelers a week ago. Now, they hit the road trying to improve to 3-1 SU/ATS against the AFC North Division.

The Bengals have been skidding since QB Andy Dalton went down, but they put up a nice fight on the road to put a scare into the Chargers. There hasn't been a lot of movement on this game at all, with the only line move from -3 1/2 to -3 at Westgate.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Baltimore Ravens (-8, 47)

This game has held steady at -8 in favor of the home team at most shops, although if you look around Treasure Island still had it at -7 1/2. That's where it opened at Westgate SuperBook before moving to -8 to get in line with most everyone else.

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 47)

The first-place Cowboys head to Lucas Oil Stadium to take on the Colts, who topped the first-place Texans to stay squarely in the playoff chase. This might not have looked like a great game a few weeks ago, but this might be one of the more intriguing battles on the card.

Caesars/Harrah's opened the game at -2 1/2 and was quickly bet up to -3 to get in line with most everyone else, although Stations and Treasure Island still have the Colts down at -2 1/2.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 38)

This is a game, not with teams jockeying for playoff positioning, but for draft position. Surprisingly we have seen a lot of early movement on this line, going from -1 1/2 to -2 1/2 in the matter of an afternoon at the Stratosphere.

Nowhere has the movement been crazier than offshore at BetOnline.ag, however. This line opened with the Lions laying -2, quickly falling to a pick 'em within a matter of hours. The line, in less than 24 hours, has gone from Detroit -2 to Buffalo now favored -2 1/2, getting in line with most Vegas shops.

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5, 45)

The Packers had a feel-good moment at home in interim head coach Joe Philbin's debut, topping the equally depressing Falcons. However, Green Bay's playoff hopes are on life support and they likely need to run the table with A LOT of help.

A win in Chicago would go a long way toward helping Green Bay. Bettors are feeling the Pack, at least early on. The line moved from -6 1/2 to -6 at Caesars. The line at Southpoint opened at -5, and went up to -6 1/2 before falling back down to -5 1/2 all within a few hours.

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants (-2.5, 43.5)

The Titans emasculated the Jaguars last time out, and they have had the luxury of a couple of extra days' rest playing last Thursday. The Giants have not thrown in the towel, winning four of the past five while going 4-0-1 ATS. If you like the Titans, the line moved from -2 1/2 to -3 at the Strat.

Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7, 36)

The Redskins hit the road for Jacksonville and they will start their fourth different quarterback in the past month and a half. QB Josh Johnson, recently signed a couple of weeks ago, will start for the ineffective QB Mark Sanchez. Most books have this line listed at -7, although if you're feeling the Jags, Mirage-MGM has the game listed at -6 1/2. Westgate opened it at -7 1/2, and it's down to -7 to get in line with mist everyone else. This total also could close at the lowest mark of the entire NFL season, too.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlatna Falcons (-9, 44)

There has been plenty of movement on this line, so shop around if you're interested in this game. Westgate opened the game at -7 1/2, moving up to -8 1/2 in less than 24 hours. TI hasn't had much movement, as the game has held steady at -8. Atlantis, Caesars and Mirage-MGM have held steady at -9. The total hasn't had any movement, hanging right in at 44 so far.

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 44.5) at San Francisco 49ers

The Seahawks just handled the 49ers 43-16 on Dec. 2, easily covering a 10-point number with the 'over' hitting. Now, they meet 14 days later in the Bay Area. The 'Hawks have the unenviable position of coming back after an emotional Monday game before traveling on a short week. The Niners showed fortitude with surprising win against the Broncos in Week 14 to knock Denver off the rails.

Westgate opened this game at -6 on Monday afternoon, slipping to -5 1/2 before going OFF during the Monday nighter. Most of the other shops where this game has been available, including Southpoint, is listed at -5 1/2. However, Jerry's Nugget opened the 'Hawks at -5, if you like Seattle.

New England Patriots (-2.5, 49.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The marquee game of the weekend might be in the Steel City, as it's always entertaining when the Patriots and Steelers hook up. Surprisingly, both are coming off road losses despite being heavy favorites.

Caesars saw a ton of early movement on this game, and it's likely just the start. The game opened at -1, quickly moving to -4, before falling back down to -2 1/2. That was the only Vegas shop offering this one, however, as QB Ben Roethlisberger banged up his ribs and his health is a driving factor on where this line will fall.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (-9, 53.5)

The defending champs are on the ropes and in desperate need of a signature win. Time is running out. The Rams have already clinched the NFC West, but still have home-field advantage at stake so they need to keep winning.

Caesars opened the game at -10, but bettors quickly jumped on that to bump it down to -9. The game has had a ton of movement at Westgate SuperBook, opening at -7 1/2, moving to -8 within an hour. It moved all the way up to -10 by midday Monday before falling back down slightly to -9 1/2. This will be a line to watch all week.

Monday, Dec. 17

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, 51.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Saints received a gift from the Bears, as they dumped the Rams to send New Orleans to the top of the NFC standings. The Panthers are tumbling down the standings, losing five in a row to go from 6-2 SU to 6-7.

This line is down to -6 1/2 at all shops, which is where it opened at a majority of shops. At Stations, TI and Westgate, the line went from -7 to -6 1/2 to get in line with everyone else. The total is on the move, going from 53 1/2 to 51 1/2 at Atlantis in rather quick order.