NFL opening line report: Week 16
By STEPHEN NOVER
There’s no need for any debates on who the best team in the NFL is right now.
By Sunday night we’ll know the answer thanks to Week 16 matchups of Pittsburgh-Tennessee and Carolina-New York Giants.
The Titans were at -1 or pick on Monday, which came as a surprise to Las Vegas Sports Consultants oddsmaker Mike Seba. He favors Tennessee by a field goal.
“To me three is the right number,” Seba said. “I would lay it easy. I think the Steelers are playing great ball, but their games are always close and low-scoring. They’ve had a lot of luck and that’s due to change.
“They’ve played the toughest schedule I’ve ever seen. They keep doing it every week. I don’t know how they can keep doing it.”
The Steelers did it again this past Sunday beating Baltimore on the road in the final minute. Pittsburgh had defeated New England and Dallas during the previous two weeks.
Tennessee, on the other hand, hasn’t been sharp in its last two games beating Cleveland and losing at Houston. The Titans could be pointing to this game. Pittsburgh may be in a flat spot following its physical and emotional upset victory against the Ravens, which clinched the AFC North Division.
The Titans, though, don’t figure to have their best defensive player, tackle Albert Haynesworth. Seba said Haynesworth is such an impact player that he’s worth one-half point on the line, a rarity for a defensive player.
LVSC has the Giants as the Super Bowl favorite at 2-1. Carolina is at 9-1. Yet the Giants are just -3 hosting Carolina. Does that mean these two teams are even since home field generally is worth three points?
“I still think the Giants are the better team,” Seba said. “But their stock has gone way down during the last two weeks (with losses to Philadelphia and Dallas) public perception-wise.”
Baltimore and Dallas are in the best team discussion. The two meet Saturday at Dallas. The Cowboys are five-point favorites. Seba said this is the right number even though LVSC’s send-out number was Cowboys -4.5.
“Dallas was -3 versus the Giants at home so you have to make this line bigger,” Seba said. “The Cowboys are coming together as a team. There are a lot of Cowboy believers out there.
“Both teams are coming off emotional games. I just wouldn’t want to be laying too many points because of that.”
Seba disagreed with his fellow LVSC oddsmakers on the New York Jets-Seattle matchup. LVSC’s opening line recommendation was Jets -4½, which is where the line was on Monday afternoon. Seba thought the Jets should be a whooping seven-point favorite.
“The right number probably is 5.5 or six,” he said. “It’s not as bad traveling from east to west. This is such a big game for the Jets. You think they would come in more focused.”
Houston opened as 7-point favorite at Oakland. This is the highest the Texans have ever been favored away from home in their franchise history. Last year, they were -2.5 at Atlanta and were 1-point chalk versus San Francisco in 2005.
Those have been the only other times the Texans have laid points on the road. They lost both of those games. The Texans have dropped 17 of 23 road games under Gary Kubiak. The Raiders, however, are 7-20 against the spread as a home underdog.
“Oakland just doesn’t compete,” Seba said. “This line is a statement against the Raiders.”
Detroit only has two chances to avoid becoming the first 0-16 team in NFL history. The Lions host New Orleans Sunday and finish at Green Bay. The Saints were either -6.5, 7 or 7.5 depending on the sportsbook.
LVSC’s opening number was -6.5. Seba was initially thinking Saints -9 until word came out that New Orleans had been eliminated from post-season contention. His recommendation was -7.
“I wouldn’t be surprised to see it close at 6.5,” he said. “You probably won’t see much of an effort from New Orleans.”