NFL Opening Line Report - Week 16

Opening Line Report - Week 16
December 18, 2017
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Here are the opening betting numbers for the penultimate week of 2017 NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 4 p.m. ET on Monday, with early moves and differences among books noted.

Saturday, Dec. 23

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens (-13, 41)

Las Vegas’ first number on this game, Baltimore -12.5 at the Westgate SuperBook, was driven up to -13.5 in about an hour Sunday night, with a correction back to -13 shortly after that. By Monday, there was a mix of 13s and 13.5's being dealt around town.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (no line)

Green Bay is eliminated from playoff contention with an Atlanta win Monday night and may not play Aaron Rodgers if they are, so books are holding tight on posting a line for this NFC North clash.

Sunday, Dec. 24

Detroit Lions (-5, 43) at Cincinnati Bengals

Bettors were eager to lay the points with Detroit on the road, as the Westgate’s opening line of -3 (-120) shot up to -5 by Monday. William Hill opened -4 and moved to -4.5, remaining in the low end of the market.

Los Angeles Chargers (-7, 42.5) at New York Jets

The Westgate and William Hill both opened Chargers -7.5, but those numbers didn’t last long. By Monday, the Chargers were -7 with varying amounts of vig throughout most of Las Vegas, although chalk players can lay -6.5 at Treasure Island.

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5, 48.5) at Tennessee Titans

This inter-conference tilt feels bigger for Tennessee than it does L.A., as the Titans are locked in a battle for a Wild Card spot in the AFC, while the Rams seem destined to be the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC. Most shops hung Rams -6.5, and while -7 has flashed momentarily on a few boards, the line has settled at its original -6.5 across town.

Cleveland Browns at Chicago Bears (-6.5, 38.5)

While far less meaningful than the Rams-Titans game just above it on the rotation schedule, this matchup of also-rans has seen similar early betting action. That is, +7's have been snapped up in short order.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, 46)

The line has not wavered from its opener of Carolina -9.5 during early wagering, and the Panthers have thrived in the role of large home favorite over the past several years. Since Ron Rivera took over as coach in 2011, they are 10-1-1 ATS when laying a touchdown or more at home.

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-5.5, 52)

There’s been a slight upward adjustment at the Westgate on this NFC West contest, as New Orleans -5 moved to -5.5. These teams met two weeks ago in Atlanta, where the Falcons covered as 2.5-point favorites in a 20-17 win.

Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (-3.5, 41)

CG Technology booked sharp plays on Denver +4 and again on Denver +3.5, Jason Simbal, the book’s vice president of risk management, said in a text message. After Washington opened -4.5 at multiple shops, the line is -3.5 throughout Vegas as of this Monday afternoon writing.

Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-10, 44)

William Hill opened Kansas City -10.5 on Sunday but joined the rest of the crowd at -10 on Monday.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11.5, 47)

The Westgate’s opener of New England -10.5 moved up the ladder to -12.5 in about 90 minutes Sunday night, before settling back to -12 and then to -11.5 on Monday. Might Buffalo be a live dog in this spot, catching as many as 12 points at some shops?

“It’s a big spread,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons. “Buffalo plays decent defense, and they usually hang around in these games. Other than the game they started the rookie (Nate Peterman) and he threw five interceptions, they’ve been really competitive this year.”

While the Pats, as 7.5-point favorites, won at Buffalo 20-3 earlier this month, Salmons said of this week’s matchup, “I wouldn’t be surprised if Buffalo keeps it close , (but) I can’t imagine they could win.”

Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5, 42.5) at San Francisco 49ers

There’s been some early interest among the betting market on the home dog, as openers of Jacksonville -5.5 have softened to -4.5 at multiple shops.

The Jaguars have won six of their last seven (5-2 ATS), but the Niners, mostly behind new quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, are on a nice little run of their own, winning four of five.

Is this a trouble spot for the Jags?

“No,” Salmons said. “They win this game, and they win the division. And the spread is pretty low. The 49ers are on the verge of getting too much credit.”

New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (-4, 40)

Early action has been on the Giants, the line adjusting from Arizona -5 to -4.5 at some shops and from -4.5 to -4 at others.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 47)

The Westgate opened Dallas -3 on Sunday night and wrote a limit-bet from a wiseguy on Seattle +3. But when the book reopened the game Monday morning, Dallas was -4.5, a number reflective of the overall market. Later on Monday, multiple Vegas shops are dealing Dallas -5.

Yes, Ezekiel Elliott is returning for the Cowboys, and yes, the Seahawks were inept in a 42-7 home loss to the Rams on Sunday, but Salmons believes the large numbers on Dallas speak to an overreaction by the market. Salmons foresees the line coming back in the other direction and going off around Dallas -3.5.

Monday, Dec. 25

Pittsburgh Steelers (-10, 44.5) at Houston Texans

Pitt -10 is the most popular line in Las Vegas, although there are -9.5's to be found at the Wynn and Caesars.

Asked about the impact Antonio Brown’s absence has on the line, Salmons responded, “Against the Texans? Zero, because the Texans are the most helpless team around.”

But, should Brown not be back for the playoffs, Salmons said that’s “probably worth a point-and-a-half against a real team.”

Oakland Raiders at Philadelphia Eagles (-9, 47.5)

The Westgate opened Philly -8 on Sunday but reopened -9 on Monday, after the Raiders’ loss to Dallas further diminished their playoff hopes.

Nick Foles did a fine job in relief of Carson Wentz in the Eagles’ 34-29 win at the Giants on Sunday, but it’s Philly’s defense that’s disappointed of late.

“They’ve looked bad for three weeks now,” Salmons said.

The bookmaker noted, though, the Eagles just completed a three-game road swing (at Seattle, at Rams, at Giants).

“That’s a difficult schedule, and it obviously caught up to them , so I don’t know if that’s the main issue or what, but they definitely need to tighten up the defense.”

As for quarterback situation, it’ll be difficult to evaluate Foles until the postseason, because the Eagles are a win away from locking up the top seed in the NFC.

“You’re not really going to know until they play a real team, and you’re not going to see that (until the playoffs), because they’re going to beat Oakland and then they’re going to rest their guys in the last week against Dallas,” Salmons said.