NFL Opening Line Report - Week 17

Opening Line Report - Week 17
December 26, 2017
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Handicapping the last week of the NFL regular season is always a tricky task. Plenty of teams still have playoff berths or seeding to play for, a handful of clubs are solidified in terms of the their playoff position and others have been eliminated from postseason contention.

So, as we begin our Week 17 analysis, let’s put the 16 games into these five groups:

1) Games involving one team with something to play for vs. one team that’s been eliminated: Half of this week’s games – Cincinnati at Baltimore, Buffalo at Miami, New Orleans at Tampa Bay, Jets at New England, Cleveland at Pittsburgh, Chicago at Minnesota, Oakland at Chargers and Arizona at Seattle – fall into this group.

2) Games involving two teams with something to play for: By our count, Carolina at Atlanta is the only one of these matchups this week.

3) Games involving one team with something to play for vs. one team that’s locked into its playoff spot: Jacksonville at Tennessee.

4) Games involving a team that is locked into its playoff position vs. a team that’s been eliminated: Dallas at Philadelphia, Rams at 49ers* and Kansas City at Denver fit here.

5) Games involving two teams that have both been eliminated: Houston at Indianapolis, Green Bay at Detroit and Washington at Giants go here, and are thus the least interesting of the Week 17 card. (Spoiler alert: This doesn’t mean people are not betting them).

When it comes to the first (and biggest) group, amateur bettors tend to flock to the team that’s “motivated,” reasoning they’ll put forth a better effort than then team who’s playoff dreams are over. This results in inflated point spreads that sharp bettors are often happy to take.

“I think they’re way inflated,” Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point, said of lines on this type of game. “The most overrated thing in betting is ‘the team that needs the game’. The money shows on the team that needs the game.”

It’s a misguided approach.

“If you blindly bet against every one of those teams that needs the game, you’ll hit (about) 61 percent,” Andrews said. “Now, if you pick and choose your spots...and you take it a little deeper into situational concepts, you’ll probably pick closer to 65 percent.

“It seems like it’s less influential every year, but I still think (playoff situations are) highly reflected in the numbers, but a lot of sharp guys are going bet against the team that needs the game.”

Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said his team of bookmakers is extra careful with its Week 17 opening lines.

“We usually wait to see what the market does and we put up the market numbers, more so than go out on a limb with a lot of games, just because there’s so much uncertainty,” Simbal said.

Also, early betting limits are about half of what they are for the first 16 weeks of the season, Simbal added.

At least the NFL is doing bookmakers and bettors a solid this season by rearranging the Week 17 schedule so that games that impact each other are played at the same time.

Here’s a game-by-game look at the early Week 17 betting numbers. Spreads and totals are the NFL consensus as of about 6:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

Sunday, Dec. 31

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5, 40.5)

At the top of the rotation is an example to Andrews’ point. While the Ravens clinch a Wild Card berth with a win and the Bengals are out of playoff contention, wiseguy action showed up at the South Point on Cincinnati +10.

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7, 43)

It may be devoid of playoff implications, but this game has seen a significant early move. The Packers opened +9 at the Westgate and have been bet down to +7 (even). The sharps took the South Point’s opener of +7.5, Andrews said.

Buffalo Bills (-3 even, 42.5) at Miami Dolphins

More evidence of pro bettors backing the team that’s out of it: They took Miami +3 at the South Point.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 46)

In the only game of the week that features playoff implications for both teams, bets came in on Carolina at both the South Point and CG. Vegas’ first line on this game, Atlanta -3 (even) at the Westgate, moved to -3.5 within an hour on Sunday night, and has toggled between -3.5 and -4 around town ever since.

“Does Atlanta need the game more? Yeah. But it’s not like Carolina doesn’t need the game,” said Andrews, whose shop opened 4 before action prompted a move to 3.5.

While the Panthers can win the NFC South with a win and a Saints loss, Andrews said, “They certainly will play hard and go all out to win this game.”

Atlanta, meanwhile has been “slightly off all year; they just don’t have it.”

Simbal, though, cautioned of the Falcons, “It seems like whenever their season is about to crumble, they end up getting a big win...I don’t know if the Panthers are going to have enough to score with them.“

New Orleans Saints (-7, 50.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

New Orleans opened -7.5 at multiple shops, but the line is down to -7 or -7 (even) as of Tuesday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-6, 41)

While Tennessee has been moved from -6 to -5.5 at the Westgate, this game is far more meaningful for the Titans, since the Jaguars are locked in as the No. 3 seed in the AFC and will probably rest key players.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-15.5, 45)

New England -16s have become -15.5s at the Westgate and William Hill, but expect no mercy from the Pats, who clinch the AFC’s top seed with a win at home.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-4, 41)

Sharps bet Houston +9 before the Texans got waxed against the Steelers on Christmas night, and they’re coming back for their regular-season finale at the Colts, betting them from +4 to +3.5 at CG. Wiseguys gonna wiseguy.

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-13.5, 39.5)

Pittsburgh -14 has proved too rich for early bettors’ tastes, as the line is down to -13.5 at most shops and as low as -13 at the Westgate.

Washington Redskins (-3.5, 38) at New York Giants

No playoff implications here, but sharps bet the Giants from +3.5 (-115) to +3.5 (-120) at CG, Simbal said.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-12, 39.5)

Minnesota clinches a first-round bye with a win, but early action is going the other way, pushing the line from -12.5 down to -11.5 at the Westgate.

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5, 41) at Philadelphia Eagles

This line jumped to Dallas -2.5 from openers of -1 at the Westgate and pick ‘em at William Hill, as the Eagles, with the No. 1 seed in their pockets, figure to play Nate Sudfeld at quarterback and plenty of other reserves.

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-7.5, 43)

The Chargers opened -7 at multiple shops and were bet up to -8.5, before a correction in other direction to the -7.5, -8 range.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-8, 38.5)

Early bettors laid Seattle -7 at the Westgate, the line getting pushed to -8 and bouncing between that number and -7.5 from there. MGM Resorts is dealing Seattle -8.5.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 38.5) at Denver Broncos

Denver opened -2.5 before being adjusted to -3.5 at the Westgate, as Kansas City is locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC.

San Francisco at Los Angeles Rams (-4, 45.5)

Vegas’ first number, Rams -6.5 posted at the Westgate, was driven as low as -3.5, before making its way back to -4.5.

Is the early interest on San Francisco a function of the Rams being pretty much locked into the No. 3 seed or the way the 49ers have been playing behind Jimmy Garoppolo? It’s the latter, according to Andrews and Simbal.

“The main reason is probably the way Garappolo is playing right now,” Andrews said.

Simbal concurred, “I think it’s Garoppolo, because of how incredibly he’s looked over the past four games that he’s won three in a row and the numbers he put up (in Sunday’s 44-33 win) against Jacksonville.

“The Niners are one of those teams that are actively saying, ‘We want to win these games . We think it’s better for our future if our guys get experience winning these games. We’re not trying to tank,’” Simbal said.

Simbal added that CG has booked two bets on the 49ers money line at about +180, “so certainly people are thinking the Niners are live.”