NFL Opening Line Report: Week 3
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-12)
New England got a lot of its offensive mojo back in Week 2, but also lost stud tight end Rob Gronkowski to a groin injury, though it’s not considered serious. The Patriots (1-1 SU and ATS) raced out to a 30-13 halftime lead and coasted past New Orleans 36-20 victory Sunday as a 5.5-point road favorite.
Houston (1-1 SU and ATS) also bounced back from a poor season opener, though it has managed just 20 total points over two games. The Texans traveled to Cincinnati for the Thursday nighter and nabbed a 13-9 upset as a 5-point underdog.
“We were forced to inflate this number some, as the public knows well the disparity in these offenses,” Cooley said. “But it will be interesting to see how the Pats handle a top-flight defense, because they didn’t exactly impress against a great Chiefs defense (with Eric Berry) in their opener. Of course on the flip side, Bill Belichick eats rookie quarterbacks for breakfast.”
Early action certainly points to that, as Bookmaker.eu’s opening line of Pats -12 was up to 13 by late Sunday night.
Oakland Raiders at Washington Redskins (+3.5)
Oakland is out of the gate 2-0 SU and ATS as it preps for its second long road trip in the first three weeks, this time for the Sunday night game. The Raiders, who opened with a win at Nashville, drubbed the New York Jets 45-20 Sunday as a healthy 14-point home chalk.
Washington bounced back from a season-opening home loss to Philadelphia by escaping Los Angeles with a 27-20 victory over the Rams as a 3-point road ‘dog.
“I think the Redskins were better represented this week than what they put forth in their opener. That said, this is a very good-looking Raiders squad,” Cooley said. “There’s a reason smart bettors were pouring money on this team to win the Super Bowl during the offseason. Action should lean toward Oakland.”
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+3.5)
Dallas got an early-season reality check on its Sunday visit to the Mile High City. In a game delayed an hour during the first half due to lightning, the Cowboys (1-1 SU and ATS) had little thunder on offense or defense, losing to Denver 42-17 laying 2.5 points.
Arizona rebounded from a season-opening setback at Detroit, but just barely. The Cardinals (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) were again on the road and needed overtime to dispatch undermanned Indianapolis 16-13 giving 7 points.
“Dallas’ defense was certainly exposed at Denver, but it’s not as if Arizona has done anything to impress us early in this season,” Cooley said of the Week 3 Monday night contest. “We know the public is going to be all over the Cowboys to bounce back, so expect the line to trend that way.”
Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (no line)
Defending NFC champion Atlanta (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) christened its new stadium in style in the Week 2 Sunday nighter. The Falcons jumped all over Green Bay early en route to a 34-23 victory as a 3-point home fave.
Detroit still has some Week 2 work to do, traveling to face the New York Giants tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting the line for this Week 3 clash. The Lions opened the year with a 35-23 home win over Arizona as a 2.5-point pup.
“The creation of this line will somewhat be predicated on each team’s performance in Week 2,” Cooley said ahead of Atlanta’s Sunday night victory. “If there aren’t any major injuries on Sunday and Monday night, and nothing looks out of sorts, we’ll look to open the Lions as very small underdogs. And they’ll be live in the eyes of some bettors.”
NFL Line Watch Week 3
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet on now
Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (+2.5)
Smart bettors have already taken advantage in this one. The line opened at Chargers +3.5 in many places, and has been bet down to +2.5 – which means that wagerers might be able to win both ways if the Chiefs wind up winning by a field goal. And that’s very possible. All that aside, Kansas City needs this one to keep pace with Denver and Oakland in the ultra-strong AFC West. In fact, it’s imperative that the Chiefs avoid any leaks over the next three weeks because of a sadistic five-game (Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, Dallas, Giants) gauntlet that stares them in the face stating in mid-October. Now’s the time to take advantage of the Chargers, who are reeling after losing in their home opener to Miami before a lot of empty seats in their first game since moving from San Diego.
Game to wait on
Houston at New England (-13)
Heavy line on this game, the product of the Texans’ poor offensive performance in Cincinnati last Thursday and the Patriots’ 36-point output at New Orleans on Sunday. And also lots of uncertainty, especially considering the Patriots’ mounting injury problems on both sides of the ball. Just when NE seemed to have figured out what to do in Julian Edelman’s absence, other wideouts have gone down, further reducing Tom Brady’s options. And now comes word that LB/DE Dont’a Hightower (hurt knee in the opener vs. KC) has been seen by Dr. James Andrews – and it’s rarely good when your name and Andrews are mentioned in the same sentence. Might be a good idea to cool on this one until the injury reports are announced and we get some kind of idea what the Pats will have on the field.
Total to watch
Oakland at Washington (53.5)
Looks like the Raiders are going to have one of their best teams in recent memory just as they get set to jump ship to Las Vegas. The competition (Titans, Jets) hasn’t put up much of a fight, but it’s the NFL and the Raiders have 71 points on the board through two games. Derek Carr is off to a terrific start (5 TD passes and the third-ranked QB) through two games, and Washington has not shown a lot so far this season. Washington is average offensively, but should put some points on the board in what has the look and feel of a high-scoring game unless there are significant weather issues.
Opening Line Report - Week 3
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
There have been lots of low-scoring games through the first two weeks of the NFL season, resulting in a bankroll-building 18-12 record for ‘under’ tickets. Casual bettors, though, tend to play the ‘over’, so count sports books among those happy to see scores like 13-9, 9-6 and 12-9 on Sunday.
“We’d like to see more underdogs cover (favorites are 15-14-1 ATS through Sunday’s games), but the ‘unders’ definitely help us, no doubt about it,” said Ed Salmons, manager at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.
While it’s too early to call the low scores a trend rather than a blip, Salmons identified numerous factors to explain what we’ve seen early in this NFL season.
“This preseason, the main players for each team played the least they ever have played, but watching the games it feels like the defenses are so athletic now and they’re so fast and big that they’re just ahead of the offenses,” Salmon said.
“The defensive schemes have always gotten better throughout the years,” he added.
Salmons also believes there’s been an officiating bias against offenses, an interesting point since conventional wisdom holds that rules and the way the game is officiated are geared toward offenses.
“It seems like the referees are obsessed with finding penalties, especially on the offense,” Salmons said.
John Avello, sports book director at the Wynn, has a different take.
“It’s matchups,” Avello said as he scrolled through Sunday’s games. “Cleveland at the Ravens, of course that’s an ‘under’ game. Buffalo-Panthers, that looks like an ‘under’ game. Patriots-Saints, that looks like an ‘over’ game, gets there.
“It’s the matchups, that’s all it is. I don’t attribute it to anything else but that.”
Salmons, though, said the betting market has already started to adjust.
“Look at the total of this Packers-Falcons game (55),” he said during the first quarter of the Week 2 Sunday night game. “The total was 60 (when Green Bay and Atlanta played in last season’s NFC) championship game, and that was to get to the Super Bowl.”
Now, let’s look ahead to the early lines for Week 3:
Thursday, Sept. 21
L.A. Rams (-2.5, 40.5) at San Francisco
The line for the less-than-compelling Week 3 opener has bounced mostly between 2.5 and 3 during early wagering, but it did hit Rams -3.5 (even) at the Wynn on Sunday night.
Sunday, Sept. 24
Baltimore (-4, 40) vs. Jacksonville
The Ravens opened -4.5 at the Westgate but for the low price of -3 at the Stratosphere. By Monday, the line was -4 on most Vegas boards and -3.5 on a few others.
While the Jags followed their opening-week win at Houston with a dud at home against Tennessee, the Ravens sliced through their second AFC North rival in a row.
Baltimore’s 2-0 start doesn’t surprise Salmons.
“I liked the Ravens coming into the year,” he said. “I would put John Harbaugh in my top five NFL coaches, maybe top three. And they have a really good defense now. They haven’t had this kind of defense since they won the (2013) Super Bowl. This defense is probably better than that defense. I’m definitely buying the Ravens. I like what I see with the Ravens.”
Cleveland (-1.5, 41) at Indianapolis
Being installed as an underdog at home against the Browns is a sign of complete lack of respect from the betting market, and the Westgate opened Cleveland -2.5 before adjusting downward to -1.5. There have been some pick 'em lines on this game as well.
Pittsburgh (-7.5, 46) at Chicago
The Steelers, who opened -7.5 at most shops but were adjusted from -8 to -7.5 in early wagering at Coasts Resorts, are 5-12 ATS under Mike Tomlin when laying a touchdown or more on the road.
Miami (-6, 41) at N.Y. Jets
The Dolphins opened -6.5 at multiple shops and as low as -4 at the Stratosphere, but on Monday, -6 was the unanimous line around Vegas.
Denver (-3 even, 40.5) at Bills
The opening line of Denver -1.5 looked cheap, and sure enough, it was bet up to -3 (even) at most Vegas books by Monday. Wiseguy action influenced the line upward, Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology, said in a text message.
The Broncos, particularly after they rolled past the Cowboys 42-17 on Sunday, have caught Salmons’ eye early in the season.
“There was nothing I liked about Denver heading into this year, and after watching them for two games, especially (Sunday), you have to be impressed with what you see from that defense again. And (QB Trevor) Siemian looks like he’s a completely different player than last year,” Salmons said. “Last year, he looked like a rookie that had never played. He looks like he actually knows what he’s doing now. ...
“I wouldn’t have thought that after two weeks Denver would be 2-0, especially the way they beat Dallas,” he added.
Houston at New England (-13, 43.5)
The Pats were bet up from an opener of -12.5, and while it’s tough to call any double-digit favorite in the NFL “cheap,” New England covered the 16-point spread when it beat Houston 34-16 in last season’s playoffs.
New Orleans at Carolina (-6, 48)
Coasts Resorts on Sunday hung 6.5 on this NFC South showdown but joined the crowd at 6 on Monday. Early chalk leaners could find Panthers -5.5 at Treasure Island.
Tampa Bay at Minnesota (no line)
Bookmakers are waiting to hear more about Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford, who missed Sunday’s game at Pittsburgh with a mysterious knee injury, before hanging a number on this game. Avello estimates Minny to be a 1- to 2-point favorite if Bradford cannot go against the Bucs, and -4.5 or -5 with him if he’s healthy.
Atlanta (-3.5) at Detroit
The Westgate opened Atlanta -3 (-120) on Sunday night and reopened -3.5 on Monday, after the Falcons’ lit up the Packers 34-23 in primetime. No signs of a Super Bowl hangover so far.
“Atlanta is just really good offensively, and when you’re really good offensively in pro football, you’re really tough to stop,” Avello said. “In order to beat team like this, you’re going to have to score 35 points a game, it looks like”
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia (-3.5, 43.5)
Philly has taken four of the last five meetings against the Giants, but we can see the hook coming off this line with a solid showing by New York on Monday night.
Seattle at Tennessee (-2.5, 43)
The Westgate moved from Titans -2 to -2.5 about 10 minutes after posting Week 3 numbers, as bettors may be fading the offensively-challenged Seahawks, who have just one touchdown in two games and struggled at home to beat the 49ers on Sunday.
After the Seahawks’ 17-9 loss at Green Bay in Week 1, Salmons said he wasn’t too concerned.
“I’m concerned now,” Salmons said this week. “It feels like that offensive line has been crap ever since they won the Super Bowl (in 2014). Seattle seems to start slow, for whatever reason ,every year. .... But watching them (Sunday) was shocking. I mean they needed to score in the fourth quarter to beat San Francisco at home.”
Kansas City (-3, 46) at L.A. Chargers
Early bettors laid K.C. -2.5 at the Westgate and William Hill, prompting adjustments at both shops to the key number ‘3’.
Cincinnati at Green Bay (-9.5, 45.5)
Treasure Island and the Stratosphere both opened this game at 7.5, and while the Bengals have been offensively inept so far (no touchdowns in two home games), this feels like a spot in which the 'dog can be dangerous. Cincy is 0-2, desperate, coming off a long rest and hoping to be revived by a new offensive coordinator.
“I can see Cincinnati competing in that game, getting all those points,” Salmons said. “Cincinnati’s got too much talent not to score points and their defense is decent. I think Cincinnati has a team that has value on them now.”
Sharps agree, as they took the points at GG Technology, according to Simbal.
Oakland (-3.5, 54) at Washington
While the line here has bounced between Oakland -3 and -3.5 in early wagering, Salmons remains skeptical on the Raiders, despite their 2-0 start.
“There’s nothing I’ve seen from the Raiders that changes my mind yet,” Salmons said. “Their defense will struggle against top offenses.”
Monday, Sept. 25
Dallas (-3, 47.5) at Arizona
Another game that has bounced between 3 and 3.5.
Avello isn’t worried about the Cowboys after their loss at Denver.
“It’s a throw-out game. Denver played really well .... and Dallas just had a bad game,” Avello said. “That’s all. That happens in the NFL. That’s why you can’t make too many adjustments on teams. Denver is a little better than I thought, but I’m not going to downgrade (Dallas) much because I think it was a tough spot for them.”
NFL Opening Line Report Week 3
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Just one NFL game remains for Week 2, as we await the outcome of the game between the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants. We focused a lot on overreactions from Week 1 to Week 2 of the NFL season, but there are a lot of overreactions present from Week 2 to Week 3 as well. It is the most-watched sport and also the most-bet sport, so oddsmakers have to be quick to adjust. It’s almost like a boxing match early in the week between the books and the bettors. Oddsmakers throw the initial punch. Bettors respond and counterpunch to set the tone. It’s up to the risk managers and bookmakers to go on defense.
A couple of games are off of the board as we look ahead to Week 4, but we have some look-ahead lines for the two teams playing Monday Night Football. We’re waiting on Sam Braford’s status for the Tampa Bay vs. Minnesota game. Still, we have some interesting considerations early in the week.
Before we go any farther, just a reminder of how this all works. In the NFL, sharp guys are simply looking to grab numbers early in the week. Sometimes that includes a true position, but the lines are so tight to key numbers and there is so much money flowing in throughout the week that it is largely a race to get a good bet. You’ll see buy backs and middles. You’ll see buyouts. You’ll see a lot of things, but initial moves are almost always numbers grabs. Besides, the guys that set the market are waiting to take their heavier positions until limits go up later in the week.
Now, we’ll look at the Opening Line Report for Week 3:
Los Angeles Rams (-2.5, 40.5) at San Francisco – It isn’t a big surprise that we have some initial action on Thursday Night Football. Thus far, the under is the most popular play, with the total coming down from 42 to 40.5 A little bit of a numbers grab on the +3 came in on the 49ers to settle this line in at 2.5. There has been a decent level of investment on this game with some moves on the juice with the number at 3 and 2.5. It looks like it will sit here until we get what appears to be a sharp vs. public split for Thursday’s game.
Denver (-3, 40) at Buffalo – The Bills looked awful. The Broncos looked awesome. So, we get what we would expect to get with the line move for this game. Denver hammered Dallas and got hammered when numbers opened late Sunday at Bookmaker. The opener of pick ‘em was hit quickly and opened -2 at Pinnacle before settling in at -3 for most of the market. Pinnacle isn’t willing to go to the full three yet, with a heavily juiced -2.5 on the road favorite. The shops dealing the +3 have extra juice on the Buffalo side. This number will probably settle here for a few days.
Pittsburgh (-7, 45.5) at Chicago – The Bears “bear-ied” themselves early and often against Tampa Bay with four turnovers in their own territory. It was never a competitive game. Pittsburgh was solid against a Minnesota team dealing with some injuries. Any time a team opens greater than a touchdown favorite on the road in the NFL, we see some sharp investment. That has been the case in this one, with the Steelers down from -8 to -7 at some shops. The majority of the market is still sitting on -7.5, especially those books that opened with the hook. Others are looking to get a nibble back on Pittsburgh if they opened -8 in hopes of balancing the books early in the week.
Miami (-5.5, 41.5) at New York Jets – Nobody was quite sure how Miami and Tampa Bay would look in Week 1. Well, Tampa Bay looked great and Miami won outright in San Diego. The Dolphins are away from home again this week, but at least they can practice at home. The lowly New York Jets are terrible. It isn’t a big surprise to see this number open -4 and shoot up to -6. What is interesting is that there has been some buy back at +6. This looks like it will wind up one of those age-old “hold your nose” bets on the Jets for the professionals and we should see a sharp vs. public split. The closer a number gets bet to 7, the more likely it is to get there, so it may be a numbers grab to bump it to 6 in order to get public investment to 7 and then come over the top.
Houston at New England (-13, 44) – NEW ENGLAND BACK Y’ALL. That seems to be the sentiment this week. Bill O’Brien and Bill Belichick meet again this week and the Patriots are very clearly the preferred side. Despite Houston’s road win at Cincinnati on a short week, the market has hammered the Patriots from -10.5 up to -13. Now, keep in mind that books will be more aggressive on an early-week sharp move on America’s Most Public Team. Moving through 11 means nothing. In the grand scheme of things, 13 doesn’t either. We’ll see when or if Houston buy back shows up.
Cleveland (-1, 40) at Indianapolis – The Cleveland Browns have not been a road favorite since 2014. They probably won’t be when all is said and done this week, but they opened one against Indianapolis. If they do close road chalk, it would be just the fifth time since 2007. Initial investment has been on the Colts, with Jacoby Brissett installed as the starter. Bookmaker opened -2.5. Pinnacle opened -1 after some initial hits on the Colts. Expect Indianapolis to close a slight favorite.
Seattle at Tennessee (-3, 43) – This number opened Tennessee -1 in Vegas and mostly -2 or -3 offshore. The Seahawks have not looked good through two games and seem to have significant issues in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Sharp bettors gravitate towards the trenches for their edges and they believe they have found one here. Most books are sitting at 2.5, but DSI and Bookmaker are at 3. Bovada is sitting on 2, so they’re still protecting against public Seahawks money.
Kansas City (-3, 46.5) at LA Chargers – The Chiefs and Chargers line has been an interesting opener. Bookmaker actually opened +3.5 and got initial Chargers money. The rest of the market popped 2.5 and moved to 3, where it mostly sits across the market. The Chiefs have looked really solid for two weeks and the Chargers have looked like the mediocre team that they are. This will be an interesting one to watch.
Dallas (-3, 47) at Arizona – It’s hard to find a team whose stock has fallen faster than the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals got a lot of preseason attention on win totals and futures, but two poor showings and a David Johnson injury have hurt perception in a big way. Still, the Cowboys opened -3.5 for Monday Night Football and the initial action came in to take away the hook and make it 3 flat or 3 with reduced juice on the home team. This is a clear overreaction line, even with Dallas getting pummeled last week. That’s not to say that Arizona will win, but this game is probably a pick ‘em or maybe Arizona -1 if it’s played in Week 1. It isn’t, so we’ve seen some adjustments.