NFL Opening Line Report Week 4

NFL Opening Line Report Week 4
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com

Chicago at Green Bay (-7.5, 45.5) – Doesn’t it feel like the Bears are getting disrespected again? This will be the fourth straight week that the Bears will close +6 or higher in all likelihood. A severely banged up Green Bay team needed last-minute heroics and overtime to down a Cincinnati Bengals team that had scored nine points over the first two games. And, yet, the Packers are favored by over a touchdown at Lambeau for Thursday Night. The scheduling spot doesn’t help Green Bay’s injury report and there’s a ton of familiarity between these two teams. I’d expect this number to go down. It’s already 7.5 with juice on the dog or 7 at most shops. I would think it closes 7 with extra juice or 6.5. We haven’t seen a ton of movement just yet, but we will as injury situations become clearer.

New Orleans (-2.5, 49.5) at Miami – Okay. Well, this is interesting. This is probably the most interesting line of the week. The Dolphins return home to Hard Rock Stadium for the first time. They can get back to some sense of normalcy after back-to-back road games to open the season and practices away from home. The Saints looked great against Carolina on Sunday while avoiding a 0-3 start. Do they deserve to be road chalk? The market seems to think so and has actually driven this number up from -1.5 on the CRIS opener and -2 on the Pinnacle opener.

Pittsburgh (-2.5, 45) at Baltimore – The Steelers are going to be a very popular bet this week. Baltimore looked awful in London and people already had concerns about the offense. This number is up from -2 and is showing signs of going to -3 with -115 on the road chalk at most shops. Bovada has already made the move to -3 expecting public investment on the Steelers. That’s a safe assumption, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see sharp investment continue to hit the board on Pittsburgh.

Carolina at New England (-8, 47) – Some books are already protecting against early-week exposure on New England by sitting 8.5. 5Dimes is sitting on 10 with -130 on the dog and +110 the take back on the favorite. We saw a big sharp vs. public split in Week 2 after New England’s home debacle against Kansas City. Will we see the same in this potential bounce back spot in Week 4 off of an ugly win over Houston? Carolina has looked awful, so we’ll see what happens here, but I think we get the sharp vs. public split later in the week.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-3.5, 43.5) – This is interesting. Bookmaker is sitting on -4, but the rest of the market is painted -3.5. Pinnacle actually opened -4.5, but the initial wave hit the board on the Giants. The Giants are 0-3. It hasn’t been a good look. It’s hard to give up on the Giants, though, because of the talent on the roster. It appears that the Buccaneers don’t have a lot of believers out there. The Bears had four turnovers in their own territory in Week 2 and the Buccaneers were never a factor in Week 3. It’s desperation time for the Giants, which may be a factor in the early-week money.

Indianapolis at Seattle (-13, 41) – There are some disagreements in the market regarding the Colts and Seahawks. The Greek and Heritage are sitting at 12.5. Bookmaker is 13. Pinnacle and BetOnline are at 13.5. This will be a game where we see Indianapolis investment hit the board. The Colts look significantly better with Jacoby Brissett at the helm and the Seahawks have enormous problems in the trenches. Sharp guys focus on the trenches. Public players focus more on the skill players. Controlling the line of scrimmage is so important in the NFL. BetOnline’s opener was actually 11.5 here and I’m a bit surprised to see the number climb so quickly, but that was just a correction to the market, probably not a true position. This number should go down, but I’m not sure when that movement will start.

A lot of games are off the board right now. Detroit and Minnesota is OTB with the status of Sam Bradford still an unknown. Dallas and Arizona are participating in Monday Night Football, so some shops have look-aheads and some shops have no lines. Dallas is a 10-point favorite over the Rams at 5Dimes and an 8.5-point favorite at BetOnline. Arizona is listed as a touchdown favorite over San Francisco at BetOnline.

BOL shows Denver a two-point favorite over Oakland with back-to-back travel and a wasted day on Monday after playing Sunday Night Football at Washington.

Opening Line Report - Week 4
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com

Here are the early point spreads and totals for the NFL’s Week 4 card, with early line moves noted and the thoughts of Westgate SuperBook manager Ed Salmons, whose shop is the first in Las Vegas each week to post NFL numbers, sprinkled in.

Thursday, Sept. 28

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 45.5)

When the Westgate SuperBook released its look-ahead Week 4 lines last Tuesday, Green Bay was an 11.5-point favorite in this spot. Then, in Week 3 the Packers needed overtime to beat the Bengals (27-24), while the Bears upset the Steelers in OT, 23-17.

More than Sunday’s results, though, health concerns on the Packers side prompted the 4-point adjustment. Defensive lineman Mike Daniels, wide receiver Randall Cobb and left tackle David Bakhtiari were among the players scratched for the Cincinnati game, and right tackle Bryan Bulaga aggravated the ankle injury that kept him out of the first two games of the season.

“It’s all the injury stuff with Green Bay,” Salmons said of the line move. “The team is decimated with injuries, offensively and defensively, and with the quick turnaround and the overtime, it’s a line that has been reduced.” Packers -7 did flash on a few Vegas oddsboards on Sunday, but those numbers were promptly snapped up and moved back to -7.5.

Sunday, Oct. 1

New Orleans (-3 even, 49.5) vs. Miami Dolphins, London

The Westgate opened New Orleans -1.5, but was up to -3 (even) on Monday. While fading the Dolphins seems like a reasonable thing for gamblers to do after they were nearly shutout by the Jets, Salmons guessed bettors who laid the -1.5 early were arbitraging, since higher numbers were being dealt elsewhere.

“It’s a gambling with the number bet, rather than an actual gamble bet,” Salmons said.

Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots (-8.5, 47.5)

New England is offered for between -8.5 and -9 in this spot, and the -8 hung at Treasure Island lasted just over an hour Monday morning.

L.A. Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-8, 46.5)

The Rams’ revived offense was all the talk Friday, the day after the team survived at San Francisco, 41-39, but this trip to Dallas marks a sharp step up in class for Sean McVay’s bunch.

“The Rams are definitely improved, but I think they have limitations in what they can do,” Salmons said. “This is a good spot for them, getting Dallas after the Monday night game the week before in Phoenix, but it’s going to be a tough game. This will be their first real test. They’ve had three games so far (Colts, Redskins, 49ers) that have been up to their level.”

Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings (no line)

While Case Keenum showed he can get the job done with a 369-yard, three-touchdown, no-interception performance in Sunday’s 34-17 win over the Bucs, in the betting market’s eyes, there’s still a dropoff between Sam Bradford and him.

Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 44) at Houston Texans

This game opened between a pick ‘em at the Wynn and Tennessee -2.5 at the Westgate, the latter moving to as low as -1 after taking bets on the home dog. Again, Salmons attributed that action to bettors simply playing numbers rather than taking a stand on the game.

“We’re going to take bets on our number,” Salmons said. “We opened it first, and we trust our number more.”

The Titans neither have been a favorite nor beaten the Texans in Houston since January 2012, a stretch of five games, and with Houston’s near-win in New England on Sunday, we’re surprised to see Tennessee installed as the favorite next week.

The Westgate bookmakers’ ratings ,though, indicate the Titans are the better team.

“They were essentially rated as high as Seattle (Sunday, when they were 2.5-point home favorites vs. the Seahawks), and Tennessee was the much better team,” said Salmons.

“(Mike Mularkey) coaches not to win all the time. When they had the big lead (Sunday), they clearly played not to score anymore and tried to play prevent defense and they were lucky the game ended when it did,” Salmons said of the Titans. “The coach needs to be more aggressive. The team has so much talent.”

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5, 39.5) at New York Jets

Jacksonville on Sunday night opened -4.5 at the Westgate and -4 at William Hill, but both shops moved to -3.5 with the rest of the market Monday morning. This looks to be a tough spot for the Jags, laying points on the road a week after their 44-7 win over the Ravens in London.

Cincinnati Bengals (-3/-120, 40) at Cleveland Browns

The Westgate opened Cincy -2.5, while the Coasts hung -3.5 and Treasure Island went -4, but as of Monday, every bet shop in Vegas was dealing -3 with varying levels of vig attached.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 even, 45) at Baltimore Ravens

After a 2-0 start, the Ravens fell flat in London, but Salmons’ chalks up their poor performance to the quirkiness of overseas game, as well as the fact that this was the fifth straight season the Jaguars have made the trip.

“Those trips over to England are hard to handicap,” Salmons said. “Everybody’s got a different feel for that. (The past three seasons, Jacksonville has) dominated in the first half of those games. Whatever routine they have, they’re used to it, and obviously Baltimore wasn’t, and Baltimore was really banged up going into the game.”

Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5, 48.5)

The Wynn opened Buffalo +9 and found some takers at that price, adjusting to 8.5 Monday morning and to 8 about two hours later. The line sits between 8 and 8.5 at of this Monday afternoon writing.

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Bucs (-3.5, 44)

After a less-than-inspiring showing at Minnesota, Tampa opened -4.5 at the Westgate, with the number adjusting downward to -3.5. The Giants’ offense came out of its shell in Philly, although New York was beaten by a 61-yard field goal as it fell to 0-3 on the season.

Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Chargers (pick ‘em, 47)

This line opened -1 either way, depending on the book, as the Chargers seek their first win of the season. Home-field advantage appears to be negligible for the Bolts in their temporary soccer-stadium digs.

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-7, 45)

Arizona opened -6 at the Westgate but was bet up to -7 by Monday. There are still some -6.5's floating around if you’re looking to lay the points here.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2, 47)

These AFC West clubs both came back to earth Sunday with losses on the East Coast. At the Westgate, Denver opened -1, was reposted -1.5 on Monday (the Raiders lost Sunday night in Washington, 27-10) and laid up to as high as -2.5.

Indianapolis Colts at Seattle Seahawks (-13, 41.5)

Certainly not the matchup the NFL had in mind when it slotted this game in NBC’s Week 4 primetime window. The 1-2 Seahawks were adjusted from -12.5 to -13 as early bets rolled in.

Monday, Oct. 2

Washington Redskins at Kansas City Chiefs (-7 even, 49.5)

While the Chiefs are the last undefeated team standing in the AFC – and one of two, along with the Falcons, NFL-wide – the role they’re in next week hasn’t been a profitable one. In fact, they are on an 0-5 ATS run when laying a touchdown or more at home.

Line Moves That Matter – NFL Week 4
By Dave Essler
Bangthebook.com

Saints/Dolphins: We get another “breakfast” game as these two play in London. Last week the Jaguars made short work of the Ravens in London, and the market clearly pointed in that direction all week. This week the early bettors love the Saints, who opened at -2 and are up to -3 in some places. It’s not likely to go TOO much higher as that’s the key number. People always remember what they saw last, and that was the Saints hammering the Panthers in Carolina, and the Fish getting embarrassed by the Jets. That’s what will drive this number more than anything. Perception.

Let’s not forget that Miami game was only their second game of the season, and they’ve yet to play a home game. They did beat San Diego on the road, so that Jets’ loss might be a bit of an anomaly. To that end, the Saints had been abysmal until that Carolina game, and although the market clearly liked the Saints, I’d be the first to admit I didn’t see it. So the question here is which is the real Miami and which is the real Saints? As is usually the case, the truth is in the middle. Miami isn’t THAT bad and that Saints aren’t THAT good.

Sadly for the Dolphins their cornerback play is weak, and with Timmons and/or a pass rush it will only get worse. New Orleans decided to just “play defense” as opposed to getting overly aggressive (and burned) against Carolina – so the obvious bet here is New Orleans, but to be honest the obvious bet in Wembley LAST week was the Ravens and we know how well that ended for Baltimore backers. I don’t think this line goes beyond -3, but it’s hard for me to think the both teams don’t regress to the mean at least somewhat. It’s a critical win for both teams. Miami needs it for their psyche as much as anything, and the Saints just NEED it. With that in mind it’ll ne interesting to see what happens with the TOTAL. Saints’ totals still tend to be higher than they should be based on historic perception – but in this case I don’t think either team can afford to play a close-to-the-vest game so it could be higher scoring. We’ll look at it again later, for certain. It’s the breakfast game and people want to bet it!

Carolina/New England: The Patriots opened -8 and there it still sits at most books. I think people are scared of New England after seeing what Kansas City did to them and how well Houston handled them for 59 minutes. This is a case where the Patriots probably cannot play any worse than they did against Houston, on both sides of the ball.

It’s also a case where Carolina has STILL failed to score. Their 13 points against the Saints was 10 more than both of their two previous games. So, there’s that. The caveat here is that a mobile quarterback like Watson made the New England defense look bad, and if Newton can play with his head on straight, we could see a repeat performance of a lot of points in Foxborough.

Jacksonville/New York Jets: I think if you want to go back a few months, this line would most certainly not have had Jacksonville favored by more than a FG on the road – to anyone, really. But, after their public pasting of the Ravens and in conjunction with zero bettors having any faith in the Jets, the Jags opene -3.5 and in some places it’s gone to -4. With that in mind I doubt it will ever come below -3 so the questions will be whether the travel from London is an issue or whether the Jets are getting any better. At all. It seems to me like they might be. Let’s remember they played the Bills tough on the road in week one, so just maybe that thrashing at the hands of the Raiders was the exception, or what I call the wrong team in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Jacksonville beat Houston (who could have beaten New England) on the road in week one, then they lost to what we now know is a “for real” Titans team.

Assuming (which you can never do) that we’d give the Jets +3 points for home field advantage, they’re essentially saying that Jacksonville is almost a TD better than the Jets on a neutral field. That may be a stretch, but Jacksonville has a very realistic chance of making the playoffs if you look closely at their schedule, and that will motivate anyone that hasn’t seen a sniff of them in a decade.

Oakland/Denver: I bring this game up because it’s got some similarities to the Jets game in that if this line were put out a month ago, it’s not likely the Broncos would be a clear favorite. So once again it’s a case of people remembering what they saw last, and that was the Raiders just failing to show up in Washington, which is magnified even further by the fact that is was the Sunday Night game, so everyone (everyone) watched it. Let’s not forget the Denver lost a game many thought they wouldn’t (at Buffalo) and also let’s not forget that they barely beat what we now know is a bad Chargers team at home, on a Monday Night.

That means they’re stock is all based on that one huge win over Dallas, which was almost predictable given the situations at the time. That leads us to this week, and one thing you can’t over look is that these are division rivals, so there’s recent history and they just know each other SO well.

Last season these team split and both won on their home field, reasonably convincingly. We know the Raiders aren’t as bad as Monday night, but do we really know who the Broncos are? I cannot see this line climbing over -3, so if you like the Raiders, take (or buy) the +3, and if you like the Broncos, play the ML – because what we DO know is that Denver is a tough out at home. It’s all going to come down to which one of these teams responds best to adversity, IE, coaching!

NFL Line Watch Week 4
By Art Aronson
Covers.com

Game to bet now

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-4)

Has a team ever stayed in the locker room for the national anthem and then decided not to come out for the game? It may be getting close to that point for the 0-3 Giants, who had hopes of making the NFC East into a two-team race with the Cowboys and now are rotting at the bottom of the division. The main problem for the Giants is that they can’t score (fewest points in the conference), and the main problem for the offense it that it can’t move the ball on the ground. At all. New York broke out with 24 points in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia on Sunday, but had scored only 13 total in the previous 11 periods. An 0-3 hole is bad enough, but 0-4 is toxic for a team that was thinking division title less than a month ago.

Game to wait on

Pittsburgh at Baltimore (+2.5)

Seems like every game these teams have played for the last decade has featured a line in the 2.5- to 3.5-point range. This one is no different. Neither team has shown enough to be considered the early favorite to be the alpha dog in the AFC North, and the Ravens in particular are wondering what hit them in London last Sunday when the Jags put a 37-point beating on them. Baltimore is not that used to those types of beatdowns. Ravens fans have to be wondering what the heck is going on with Joe Flacco, who threw for just 28 yards on Sunday and was picked twice before giving way to Ryan Mallett. Maybe the Ravens will be able to run the ball against the Steelers’ shaky defense, which gave up 220 of their own on the ground in losing to the Bears. Might be worth waiting on this one to see if any early money surge causes the books to budge on the half-point one way or the other.

Total to watch

Buffalo at Atlanta (48.5)

Interesting study in contrasts at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Georgia, where the high-flying Falcons are off to a 3-0 start and hope to start creating a little separation in the NFC South. The Falcons have shrugged off their Super Bowl loss and again boast one of the best offense in the league. The Bills, meanwhile, are 2-1 and doing it with defense. Two of their games have gone under, and Sunday’s victory over Denver barely covered the minuscule 40 posted by books. Buffalo has a very soft schedule after this one, and doesn’t have to face the suddenly-vulnerable Patriots until December.