NFL Opening Line Report: Week 6
Covers.com
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Philadelphia is off to a solid start behind second-year quarterback Carson Wentz. The Eagles (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trampled Arizona in Week 5, winning 34-7 as a 6-point home favorite, with Wentz throwing four touchdown passes.
Cam Newton weathered a media storm of his own making last week, then helped guide Carolina to a 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS mark, as well. The Panthers edged Detroit 27-24 as a 2-point road underdog Sunday.
“A great matchup that will really give us some insight as to how good these teams really are,” Cooley said. “Carolina has been quite impressive the last couple of weeks, more so than we thought they were capable of. The Eagles have been on the radar all year, but have been even more dominant than anticipated. These teams are very close in the power ratings, so we assign the home team some advantage and see where the bettors go with it.”
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (no line)
Kansas City is the league’s lone undefeated team, and Alex Smith is playing like an MVP candidate. The Chiefs (5-0 SU and ATS) dropped Houston 42-34 laying 2 points in the Week 5 Sunday nighter, getting three TD passes from Smith – who has no interceptions this year.
Pittsburgh entered the season among teams with the shortest odds to make the Super Bowl, but hasn’t looked anything like a championship squad. On Sunday, the Steelers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) were 7.5-point home faves against Jacksonville and got run out of their own building, 30-9.
Since K.C. was in the Sunday night contest, Bookmaker is waiting until Monday to post this line.
“If the Chiefs play as expected Sunday night, and nothing out of the ordinary happens on the injury front, we’ll look to make them around field-goal favorites,” Cooley said. “The Steelers aren’t the team they displayed in Week 5, but there is certainly something amiss in Pittsburgh.”
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-9)
New York went 11-5 SU in the regular season last year to advance to the playoffs. Through five weeks of this season, the Giants are like Jacques Cousteau, still “In Search Of” their first victory. (You youngsters, go look up that reference if you need to.)
The Giants (0-5 SU, 2-3 ATS) got an Odell Beckham Jr. touchdown catch to take a 22-17 lead over San Diego early in the fourth quarter Sunday. But New York didn’t score the rest of the way, lost Beckham to a broken ankle and lost the game 27-22 as a 3-point home chalk.
Meanwhile, Denver (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) is coming off its bye week, following a 16-10 Week 4 victory laying 3.5 points at home against Oakland.
“You have to wonder what the mindset is right now in that Giants locker room,” Cooley said. “They have no running game, and they could be without their top three receivers. Going on the road to play in the altitude against a great defense is not what this team needed. Early action from the pros has moved this to -10.”
In fact, later Sunday night, the line jumped to 10.5 at Bookmaker.eu.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (no line)
Green Bay looks to be firing on all cylinders, certainly on offense, after reaching 35 points two weeks in a row. On Sunday at Dallas, the Packers (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) trailed 21-6 in the second quarter, but climbed out of that hole and left the Big D with a 35-31 victory catching 2.5 points. Aaron Rodgers capped the comeback with a 12-yard TD pass to Davante Adams with 11 seconds remaining.
Minnesota (2-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 5 work to do, traveling to Chicago in the Monday night game. The Vikings should have quarterback Sam Bradford back tonight, but until that game wraps, Bookmaker.eu will hold off on setting the Pack-Vikes opening line.
“It appears as if Bradford is going to play Monday night, so we’ll see how he looks throwing the ball and moving around in the pocket,” Cooley said. “Still, it’s unlikely we’ll make Minnesota a favorite. Aaron Rodgers is just playing too well right now, and the betting public is fully aware of that fact. The Vikings will likely be short home ‘dogs when this line is released Monday night.”
NFL Opening Line Report Week 6
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
With some more bye weeks thrown into the mix this week, we’ve got a lesser number of games once again, so that limits the opportunities for those that are looking for edges in the NFL betting market.
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 6:
Philadelphia at Carolina (-3, 46) – We haven’t seen any notable line movement on this game, but what is notable is how the perception of Carolina has changed over the last two weeks. Cam Newton looks healthy. He looks comfortable. He’s running around and making smart throws. Two weeks ago, this number probably opens closer to pick ‘em, even with the short week for the Eagles. Now, the line is a pretty standard -3 for the home team.
New England (-9.5, 47) at New York Jets – The Jets have won three straight games. Most people didn’t think the Jets would win three straight games all season. There hasn’t been a whole lot of investment on this game, though numbers players grabbed the Jets +10.5 at the opening number for BetOnline. Bookmaker opened -9 and remains the only book there at time of writing. The others are sitting at 9.5. It’s hard to read this much into something early in the week, but Bookmaker digging in at -9 may be a sign that they would like a little bit of Patriots money, considering New England isn’t a team to trust with big numbers. I think this number does come down throughout the week, though we haven’t seen any indication of it just yet.
Miami at Atlanta (-10.5, 47.5) – This one has been a mover. The Falcons are clearly the preferred side here coming off of the bye and they should be. Miami picked up the win over Tennessee, but Jay Cutler threw for 92 yards and the ground game didn’t get a whole lot going. It was a bit of a misleading win. If you look for misleading box scores, you’re going to find market overreactions. Sports are a results business. Miami won. They get a bump for that. Look into the box score and they shouldn’t. The Dolphins are also a much better defense against the run. The Falcons can throw it around as well as anybody. This is a bad matchup all around for Miami and Atlanta should be able to name the score off the bye and the market agrees. Most of the shops with 10.5 have extra juice and some have already turned up the line to 11.
Detroit at New Orleans (-3.5, 51) – We’ll have to see if this is a true position on New Orleans, but the injury report for Matthew Stafford is not good. We’ve also seen the Lions trail into the fourth quarter just about every week once again this season, much like last season. The Saints are off of the bye. The Lions are hitting the road without a balanced offense capable of keeping Drew Brees off of the field. This looks like the right side and I think we see 4.5s popping fairly early in the week here as we find out more about Stafford’s injuries.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville (-2.5, 43.5) – This is Handicapping 101. The Rams are coming east to take on the Jaguars, who just trucked the Steelers playing their third road game in three weeks. The Rams are coming off of a division game that they put a ton of effort into against the Seattle Seahawks. This move is not a surprise at all and the fact that the line is 2.5 with extra juice suggests that a -3 is right around the corner. The Rams really get a break with the late kickoff, though, and that could mitigate some of the travel spot. I get the line move, but I’m inclined, at least early in the week, to consider grabbing the Rams if we see +3 even or +3.5 show up on the board.
Tampa Bay (-2, 44.5) at Arizona – This is something. The Buccaneers were a fade team against the Giants two weeks ago and have been a fade team most of the season. They are coming out of the bye week, but they go east to west to take on Arizona. The line opened pick ‘em, but the Buccaneers were clearly the preferred side for the professionals and are now a consensus favorite in the desert. The Cardinals looked awful on offense against Philadelphia. They did get some pressure on Carson Wentz, but couldn’t bring him down. Will they have better success against Jameis Winston? Can we trust Tampa as road chalk? Can we trust this awful Arizona offense?
New York Giants at Denver (-10.5, 41) – Another double-digit favorite, though this one makes a lot of sense. We saw what the Giants offense was capable of without Odell Beckham Jr. in Week 1. The Giants will be without him the rest of the year and Eli Manning also went for postgame x-rays after the loss to the Chargers. Imagine a Trevor Siemian-led offense laying double digits. Now, once you finish laughing, realize that it is a real thing this week.
Opening Line Report - Week 6
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
A marquee NFC matchup gets the NFL’s Week 6 card off to a fine start, as a pair of 4-1 teams – the Philadelphia Eagles and Carolina Panthers – meet Thursday night in Charlotte. Based on the early numbers, the betting market rates these teams evenly, as most Las Vegas sports books opened the home side a field-goal favorite.
There’s been an early move on the Panthers, who have been moved to -3 (-120) at the Westgate SuperBook, William Hill and the Wynn, and are even being asked to lay -3.5 at a few shops around town.
Playing on the road off short rest is never an easy task in the NFL, and making it even more difficult for the Eagles this week is that the Panthers appear to have hit their stride.
“I don’t know if they’re going to be as good as they were two years ago when they went to the Super Bowl (after a 15-1 regular season), but they’re really starting to jell, they’re starting to put those pieces together,” Chris Andrews, sports book director at the South Point, said of the Panthers. “This is going to be a very formidable team down the stretch.”
The Eagles, meanwhile, are playing pretty well themselves, Sunday’s 34-7 win over Arizona their third straight. Their only loss, in fact, came at still-undefeated Kansas City (more on the Chiefs later in this piece). Folks around Vegas, though, are wondering when the Eagles’ run will end.
“Philly’s probably due for a let-down game,” Andrews said. “A lot of guys were on the Cardinals (+6.5 at Philly on Sunday), and I don’ t know if it was a bet on the Cardinals as much as a bet against Philly, just (bettors) thinking you can only go to the well so many times. But it was a big win, very impressive. I’ve been nothing but impressed with Philly all year, but this is a spot where I lean toward Carolina.”
Here’s a look at the rest of the Week 6 slate.
Sunday, September 15
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans (-10, 44.5)
Houston -10.5, at the Westgate on Sunday night, was the first line posted on this game, but it re-opened -10 Monday morning, after the Texans’ comeback attempt against the Chiefs fell short. In fact, there are -9.5s available as of this Monday afternoon writing for gamblers looking to lay the wood.
New England Patriots (-9.5, 47.5) at New York Jets
The Jets +10s that flashed on betting boards seemed to have been snapped up, as 9.5 prevails as the number throughout Las Vegas. While the Jets’ three-game winning streak hasn’t come against what we’d call a murderers’ row, they’re clearly better than most people thought they’d be ahead of the season – they’re a win away from going ‘over’ their season win total!
QB Josh McCown has played well enough to keep the Jets afloat, but that’ll be a tougher task against a New England team on a week-and-half rest.
“The guy’s had a pretty long career in the NFL. Everybody’s trying to get rid of him, but he’s not bad,” Andrews said of McCown. “They might be able to hang in there (vs. the Pats). I wouldn’t lay that number on the road, but I’m not chompin’ at the bit to bet the Jets, either.”
Miami Dolphins at Atlanta Falcons (-11, 47)
Atlanta’s been bet up from its opening price of -9.5, and one can understand why. The Falcons are coming off a home loss to the Bills and a bye week, and it’s difficult to envision the Dolphins keeping up offensively.
Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-4, 51)
New Orleans was adjusted from -3.5 to -4 at the Westgate, and is priced as high as -4.5 at CG Technology. While some handicappers may still be under the impression that the Saints are a good bet at home, they’re a bankroll-busting 4-12-1 ATS as a favorite in the Superdome over their last 17 opportunities in the role. Two of those losses have been against the Lions, who have beaten the Saints in four straight seasons, including the last two in New Orleans.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Injury concerns on both sides of this NFC North matchup have oddsmakers hesitant to hang a number.
Chicago Bears at Baltimore Ravens (-7, 41.5)
Baltimore by a touchdown was the number posted on this game before the betting market got its first glimpse of Bears rookie QB Mitch Trubisky.
San Francisco at Washington Redskins (-10, 46.5)
The Westgate moved Washington from -9 to -10, while William Hill and the Wynn went from -9.5 to -10, as gamblers may have noticed this gross scheduling inequity: San Fran is playing its third-straight road game, in a 1:00 pm ET content no less, against the Redskins, who had last week off.
Los Angeles Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5, 43.5)
It feels weird to write this, but Rams-Jags is one of the more interesting games on the Week 6 schedule.
Jacksonville priced at less than a field goal at home indicates the market rates the Rams a notch higher, a sentiment Andrews agrees with.
“Gun to my head, I’m probably buying both (teams) right now,” Andrews said. “The Rams have showed real improvement, particularly offensively. (Jared) Goff is a pretty legit quarterback. He looks like one of those guys who needed the right kind of coaching and he’s getting it this year.
“I’m not quite so enthused about Jacksonville,” Andrews added. “They’ve had horrible run defense, although they did play every well (at Pittsburgh on Sunday), but I’m not sure that was them playing well or the Steelers playing poorly. They have a very good pass defense. They still have Blake Bortles at quarterback, which is a huge question mark, but Leonard Fournette looks like he’s a pretty good runner.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 44.5) at Arizona Cardinals
This game opened pick ‘em at the Westgate, but by Monday afternoon, Tampa was laying -2.5 for next week’s road contest. Some shops are dealing -2 as of this writing.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-4, 46)
The first Vegas line on this game had the Chiefs laying -2 (-120), but that inexpensive offer on Kansas City was pushed to -3 within minutes. On Monday, even -3.5's didn’t last long, with Chiefs -4 becoming the number being dealt all over town.
The Chiefs are a head-turning 27-4 SU in their last 31 regular-season games, and they’ve been cashing lots of ticket to boot.
“I’ve been on Kansas City since last year and certainly nothing this year would deter me from that opinion,” Andrews said. “Besides winning every game, they’ve covered every game (this season), too. It’s only October, but I think right now, they’re the best team in the NFL.”
All that said, Pittsburgh figures to be dangerous getting 4 points in this spot.
“Pittsburgh for years, especially under (Mike) Tomlin, has been known to play down to their competition,” Andrews said the day after the Steelers’ 30-9 home loss to the Jaguars. “Not that Jacksonville’s all that down this year, but I can see where the Steelers wouldn’t be tremendously motivated against them, thinking they probably had this win. I’m not as concerned about the Steelers as I am about some other teams that threw in some real clunkers.”
Los Angeles Chargers at Oakland Raiders (no line)
Bookmakers await word on Derek Carr’s status.
New York Giants at Denver Broncos (-12, 41)
The opening line of Denver -9 skyrocketed to -12 by Monday afternoon, and the reason for the move against the winless Giants is obvious.
“They haven’t had much of a running game all year, now they lose four receivers (including All-Pro Odell Beckham Jr.),” Andrews said. “Obviously, they’re really hurting. It’s not just a bad game here or there – they have some real issues.”
Monday, September 16
Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (no line)
There are questions about the status of both starting quarterbacks here, as Andrew Luck looks to get on the field for the first time this season, and Marcus Mariota tries to recover from a hamstring injury suffered two weeks ago. Luck will likely sit again for the sixth straight week.
NFL Line Watch Week 6
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet now
Pittsburgh at Kansas City (-3)
What up with Ben Roethlisberger? The face of the Steelers franchise for the last decade seems like he needs a career change, if his comments after last Sunday’s no-touchdown, five-interception game are any indication. “Maybe I don’t have it anymore,” the QB said after Ben and the Steelers were roasted at home by Jacksonville. Whatever it is that Roethlisberger has managed to lose, he had better find it in a hurry because the undefeated Chiefs are waiting. From a record standpoint (the Steelers are still in first place in the mediocre AFC North), the 3-point line might make sense. But expect KC money to soon flood in as Roethlisberger’s comments make their way into the consciousness of the betting public. KC is 5-0 SU and 5-0 ATS, and betting on streaks to end have depleted a lot of bank accounts over the years.
Game to wait on
New England at New York Jets (+9.5)
Tank this, say the Jets, who have to be considered the biggest surprise in the league so far. At 3-2 the NYJ are more than in the mix in a solid AFC East, and if New York can get it done against a shaky Patriots team this coming Sunday, it’ll be game on in the division. That’s a big if, and the entire NFL is waiting for Bill Belichick to straighten out his defense and begin to dominate again. The Pats will have had a few extra days to get ready for this one after their OK-bit-not-great performance last Thursday at Tampa Bay. The Jets, meanwhile, have taken full advantage of their easy schedule and have put together a three-game win streak. Might be useful to sit this one out for a bit and wait for a line move. If heavy money comes down on NE, books might adjust the vig if they don’t want to take on the extra half-point to make it a 10-point line.
Total to watch
Miami at Atlanta (47.5)
Dead last. That’s where the Dolphins rank in offense, which about where a team that can’t pass the ball or run the ball should be. That Miami is 2-2 is somewhat of a minor miracle, and testament to the team’s ability to stop the run. Whether it can stop Atlanta’s passing attack is another question, however. The Dolphins will probably have to score in the 20s to cover the 47.5, and that’s a tall order for a club that is barely averaged 10 points a game so far.