NFL Opening Line Report Week 8
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
Week 8 of the NFL season will be here before you know it. There are six teams enjoying a week off, so we’ll only have 13 games to consider this week, including yet another game across the pond in London. There have been a few early-week line moves, but a lot of the NFL action takes some time to roll in because of the extensive injury reports and the enormous game handles that will allow lines to move around before limits reach their peak.
Even though a lot of the magic happens later in the week when it comes to the betting odds, it is always in your best interest to take stock of the lines early, in the middle, and late. That’s why we do this Opening Line Report, to show you what the numbers guys are playing and the positions that they have taken early in the week. Sometimes it’s simply interesting to speculate on why numbers were posted where they were.
Here is the Opening Line Report for Week 8:
Miami at Baltimore (-3.5, 37.5) – This was one that I saw posted a lot by guys I respect on Twitter as we put an end to October 22. The Ravens have really not looked good over the last few weeks, which probably led to this number being a little bit low. Baltimore at -3 (-120) was a popular grab early in the week and we’ve got some 3.5s and some -3 (-125) lines out there, which are effectively -3.5. Expect this one to probably close around -4, if not higher, with a steady stream of Baltimore money looking to fade the Dolphins offense against a good defense.
Minnesota (-7.5, 38) vs. Cleveland – The misery starts earlier for Browns fans this week with a 9:30 a.m. ET kickoff in London. The Vikings are more than a touchdown favorite against a Browns team that is likely to be missing Joe Thomas for the first time in his career. Add in the quarterback switch to Cody Kessler and who knows what to expect. This is a big number to lay in a unique situation, which is probably why the initial move off of -8 was to come down, but I’d be surprised to see a lot of Browns backers to push this thing down to 7 flat. It is showing signs of coming to -7, with -115 on the Browns at +7.5, but we’ll have to wait and see.
Chicago at New Orleans (-7.5, 48) – The most respected offshores, like Bookmaker and Pinnacle, are sitting on -7.5 for this one. BetOnline and DSI are there as well. Other books are still up at the opening number of 9, with Bovada the lone 8 in the market. The Bears have won two straight and Mitch Trubisky has a total of 12 completions in those two games combined, so the expectation of regression was built into this number on the Bears side. With a good defense and a solid running game, it isn’t a surprise to see this number ticking down, but don’t expect to get a 6.5 on the Saints if you like the chalk.
Atlanta (-4.5) at New York Jets – At time of writing early Monday morning, the total is off the board, but the places with a line on this one have the Falcons laying 4.5. Atlanta lost the Super Bowl rematch and the look-ahead number was -7 at BetOnline and 5Dimes, so we’ve seen a nice adjustment in the market through a few numbers. The Falcons have issues. Matt Ryan’s efficiency hasn’t been the same under Steve Sarkisian and the defense is sort of carrying the team.
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-2.5, 44) – With Jameis Winston showing that he was healthy last week against the Bills, the market seems excited to lay the short price on the home favorite. Also, with Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David getting back to full strength, the Bucs defense looks better. There may also be a bit of recency bias here in that Carolina looked so bad in Chicago, but this line seems to be moving the right way and will likely be painted -3 across the market soon enough.
Oakland at Buffalo (-2.5, 45) – Teams coming off of extra rest on Thursday nights have been a tremendous betting angle this season and it has turned a big profit. The Raiders are taking money as a result. Despite the cross-country travel, Oakland has gone from +3 flat to +3 (-120) or (-125) and Pinnacle has even gone down to 2.5. This is a very notable early-week line move and it looks like Oakland is the preferred professional side as of now.
Houston at Seattle (-5.5, 42.5) – The Seahawks suffocated the Giants offense in a 24-7 win in Week 7 while the Texans enjoyed a week off. We’ve seen steam hit the board on the bye week teams with regularity this season. That appears to be the case again this week, at least with the Texans, who head north to take on the 12th Man in Seattle. Al of the big players are at 5.5, with some of the more public shops holding at 6.
Pittsburgh (-3, 44.5) at Detroit – There weren’t a ton of believers in the Steelers this week. The Bengals were a highly-touted pick in the SuperContest and the market also closed 4 after sitting 5.5 or 6 most of the week. Detroit is off of a bye and we haven’t seen that bye week bump all that much as of yet. Pinnacle opened -3 (-105) both ways and has seen a slight preference to the Lions. Bookmaker has bounced around to -120 and back to -115 on the juice. That should be the expectation until we see a true position later this week.
Denver at Kansas City (-7, 44.5) – There hasn’t been a lot of involvement in this game yet and it will be one of the most interesting lines of the week. The Broncos were a very popular bet last week and got shutout by the Chargers. The Chiefs are off of extra rest following the Thursday Nighter, which has been a profitable betting angle this season. But, who wants to lay seven against the Denver defense? The offense is bad, but the defense is still very good. I’m not sure where we see this number go. Pinnacle opened 7.5 with plus money on the takeback for the Chiefs.
NFL Opening Line Report
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
Week 8 of the NFL season doesn’t have any truly eye-catching matchups, but a couple of NFC East rivals could spice things up a bit. Covers checks in on the opening lines and early action for a quartet of games, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (no line)
Dallas put a two-game losing skid in its rearview mirror, and in convincing fashion in Week 7. The Cowboys (3-3 SU and ATS) went to San Francisco as 6.5-point road favorites and left with a 40-10 rout to climb back to .500.
Washington (3-2 SU and ATS) still has Week 7 work to do, traveling to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football this evening. In Week 6, the Redskins beat the 49ers, too, albeit in a much tighter game, 26-24 as a 12-point home chalk.
Since Washington plays tonight, Bookmaker.eu is holding off on posting an opening line, though Cooley has an idea of where it will land.
“We’ll wait until Monday Night Football concludes, but look for this to surface around a pick ‘em,” he said. “No doubt we’ll get public money on the Cowboys, so if the sharps don’t get involved, expect the spread to trend in Dallas’ direction.”
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Carolina just can’t seem to figure out what it is yet. Earlier this month, the Panthers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) won outright as an underdog at New England and at Detroit. Cam Newton & Co. then lost their next two games, including Sunday’s dismal 17-3 setback to Chicago as a 2.5-point road fave.
Tampa Bay won two of its first three games, but has since dropped three in a row. The Buccaneers (2-4 SU, 1-4-1 ATS) had to swallow a bitter pill Sunday at Buffalo, taking a 27-20 lead on a touchdown with 3:14 remaining, then giving up 10 points those final minutes to lose 30-27 catching 3 points.
“Two of the more mercurial teams in the league, so we opened with basically a pick ‘em,” Cooley said. “Early smart money has come in on the Bucs. We all know that the Panthers defense is a different unit without Luke Kuechly.”
That early sharp play on Tampa drove the line up to -2.5.
Kuechly, Carolina’s standout linebacker, sat out against the Bears and remains under concussion protocol.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+3)
Pittsburgh just might be getting back on track, winning and cashing the past two weeks. The Steelers (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) dropped Cincinnati 29-14 Sunday as a 4-point home favorite.
Detroit won three of its first four games, but enter this contest having lost two in a row. The Lions (3-3 SU and ATS) had a bye in Week 7 and probably needed it after giving up a 50-burger-plus in Week 6 – a 52-38 road loss to New Orleans as a 6-point pup.
“We’re definitely expecting the classic divide here, with sharps on Detroit and squares on the Steelers,” Cooley said. “Has Pittsburgh finally found its offensive footing? We’ll certainly find out against what seems to be a bleeding Lions defense.”
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Seattle has won and cashed for bettors in its past three games, though surprisingly is still looking up at the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) made a successful cross-country trip in Week 7, dropping the New York Giants 24-7 as a 4-point chalk.
Houston, coming off its bye week, hopes to keep pace with Tennessee and upstart Jacksonville in the middling AFC South. Prior to that bye, the Texans (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS) topped Cleveland 33-17 giving 7.5 points at home.
“Wiseguys are on the Texans early here,” Cooley said, alluding to the line dropping from -6 to -5.5 at Bookmaker.eu. “Houston obviously lost an edge on the defensive front (J.J. Watt injury), but it’s still sound, and the offense has more than made up for it. Outside of Andy Reid, nobody is calling better plays than Bill O’Brien right now. It will be a great test against Seattle’s D.”
Opening Line Report - Week 8
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Several teams who came into the season considered Super Bowl contenders have been unimpressive in spots to start the season. Have the Patriots, Seahawks, Steelers, Cowboys and Raiders done enough in more recent performances, including this past weekend’s, to sway the opinions of the betting market?
Here are early lines for Week 8 of the 2017 NFL season. Point spreads and totals are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 4:30 p.m. ET on Monday.
Thursday, Oct. 26
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 37.5)
This game bounced between Baltimore -3.5 and -3 (-120) during early wagering in Vegas, while the total is the lowest on the Week 8 board.
Sunday, Oct 29
Minnesota Vikings (-8.5, 38) vs. Cleveland Browns (in London)
Minnesota opened -8.5 on Sunday at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, where the line was bet as low as -7.5 before moving back up the ladder to -9.5. Monday afternoon, the number ranged between 8 and 9.5 around town.
Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8.5, 48)
As handicappers choose between two of the NFL’s best bets this season – Chicago is 5-2 ATS, New Orleans is 4-2 ATS – the spread opened 8.5 at the Westgate, regressed to 7.5, but bet back up to 9.
Atlanta Falcons (-4.5, 46.5) at New York Jets
The Westgate posted Falcons -6.5 before the team’s latest disappointment – a 23-7 loss at New England – and reopened them -4.5 on Monday. Since then, the number was bet up to -5.5 before an adjustment in the other direction to -4.5.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Bucs (-2.5, 44)
Most Vegas shops opened this game Tampa -2.5, and while it’s been as high as -3 (even) and as low as -2 in early wagering at the Westgate, the line seems to have settled at 2.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5, 47.5)
While they’ve yet to win a game this season, the 49ers had been ultra-competitive, keeping the final score of five straight games within a field goal. That run ended with a 40-10 loss at home to Dallas, and now they have to get back on the road to the East Coast, where Philly has been bet as high as -11.5.
Oakland Raiders at Buffalo Bills (-2.5, 46)
Most of the +3s that were hung on this game were snapped up by underdog bettors, as Vegas sports books were dealing Buffalo -2.5 on Monday.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals (-10, 41)
The opening number of Cincy -9.5 at multiple shops wasn’t big enough, as gamblers laid the points and pushed the line to double digits.
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots (-7/-120, 49)
New England opened -5 and was bet to -5.5 at the Westgate on Sunday night, but the book reopened the Pats -7 on Monday, the morning after the team’s aforementioned win over Atlanta.
“You have to have respect anything the Patriots do positive,” said Westgate oddsmaker Ed Salmons. “It’s hard to tell if their defense was that much better (Sunday) or it’s more a sign of what’s going on with Atlanta and their play calling, but you have to respect what you saw. It doesn’t take much for the Patriots to get back to being the favorites to win the Super Bowl, and that definitely did it.”
At 7/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $350) on the Westgate’s updated futures board, New England again has the shortest price to emerge victorious Feb. 4, 2018 in Minneapolis.
Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-5.5, 45)
After a rocky 1-2 start, Seattle has reeled off three straight wins and covers. Salmons, though, still doesn’t like the way the Seahawks are starting games (they trailed at halftime in those recent wins over the Giants and Colts and were tied at the half against the Rams).
“I’m to the point with Seattle where I believe it’s just terrible coaching on offense. They purposely play not to score until they have to,” Salmons said. “They score some points in the second half. … I don’t understand why they don’t start the game like that.”
As of Monday, Texans backers can find +6 for next week’s trip to Seattle
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (pick ‘em, 49)
While most books are dealing this NFC East rivalry game a pick ‘em, CG Technology has Washington the 1-point chalk.
The Cowboys’ win at San Francisco on Sunday evened their record to 3-3, but it’s going to take beating teams better than the 49ers, Cardinals and Giants to impress Salmons.
Salmons said he was anticipating the 49ers to crack last week at Washington, as they were playing their third straight road game and coming off two straight overtime games.
“It just happened one week later. The Niners cracked (Sunday), and it was just too much to overcome,” Salmons said. “And Dallas was off the bye, so it set up well for them.”
He added, “Until Dallas can play a really good team on the road and show me something, I’m not buying into Dallas.”
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 45) at Detroit Lions
There’s been no movement off the key number since Pitt was installed as the field-goal road favorite for the Week 8 Sunday nighter, although the vig has some variance.
Said Salmons, “Power-rating wise, Pittsburgh is the clear second in the AFC behind the Patriots, and it’s really close (between those two) right now.”
Monday, Oct. 30
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5, 44)
The Westgate opened Kansas City -7 on Sunday night, with a move to -7.5 (even) on Monday. The Chiefs are still available at -7 flat for those looking to lay the points. While K.C. has lost two straight, the Broncos’ nose dive appears to be worse, as they’ve lost three of four and were shut out by the Chargers on Sunday.
NFL Line Watch Week 8
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet now
Minnesota at Cleveland (+9.5)
After going 1-15 last season, is it possible for the Browns to actually be worse than that this year? Cleveland will have reached the halfway mark of this season by this time next week, and you’d be hard-pressed to find anyone outside of Northeast Ohio who thinks they can reverse things and find a way to put up a W. Didn’t you just KNOW that they would lose last Sunday? How bad is it? A Browns promotion to give a prize to one fan when awry when the seat chosen at random was unoccupied. Oh, and their best lineman (tackle Joe Thomas, who hasn’t missed a game since 2007, looks lost for the year with a triceps tear. Money is already heavy on the Vikings, moving the line a full two points from 7.5. Expect more Minnesota money to change the line even more, so if you like Minnesota, best jump now.
Game to wait on
Dallas at Washington (+1)
Ten of the 16 teams in the NFC, including these two, have either two or three losses. Catching 6-1 Philadelphia is hardly out of the question, but this division game is vital for both when tie-breakers to determine playoff draws will almost certainly come into play. At 3-3 the Cowboys have to be a disappointment to National Anthem-obsessed owner Jerry Jones, but they better get their act together soon if they want to play in the post-season – next up are Kansas City, (at) Atlanta and Philadelphia. Washington (also 3-3), meanwhile, has a slightly easier schedule and would like nothing better than to slap down the Boys and take a giant step toward turning the East into a two-team race with Philadelphia.
Total to watch
Miami at Baltimore (37.5)
Lines in the high-30s/low-40s range were unicorns in recent years, but they seem to be coming back. The Dolphins are the second-lowest-scoring team in the league (thank you, Cleveland) and their 1-5 record against the over reflects that. Jay Cutler has one of the lowest QB ratings in the league (78.8 ). Still, there are signs that things might be moving in the right direction. The Fins have won three in a row, and in their last two games (Atlanta, Jets) have actually been able to move the ball. Miami (4-2 SU) is in the thick of it in a rejuvenated AFC East. Baltimore’s offense has been all over the map, and inconsistent QB Joe Flacco is being asked questions like “Is the offense completely broken?” Yikes.