NFL Opening Line Report: Week 9
By: Patrick Everson
Covers.com
We’re heading into Week 9 of the NFL season, and the whole Ezekiel Elliott situation is still not resolved, which is forcing oddsmakers to tap the brakes a bit. Covers takes a look at opening lines on a quartet of next weekend’s contests, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (no line)
Dallas still had Elliott’s services Sunday, and he delivered in a big way on the highway. The star running back racked up 150 rushing yards and two touchdowns, helping the Cowboys (4-3 SU and ATS) top Washington 33-19 as a 3-point favorite. Elliott’s Week 9 status is uncertain at this point.
Kansas City still has some Week 8 work to do, hosting the Denver Broncos on Monday night. The Chiefs (5-2 SU and ATS) got out of the box 5-0 SU and ATS, then lost at home to Pittsburgh and at Oakland.
“The Elliott situation will keep this game a bit muddled until we get clarity on his availability,” Cooley said. “As well, we’ll want to wait and see how the Chiefs fare Monday night. If nothing changes and these teams come into this great matchup as is, then Dallas will be a short favorite.”
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-1.5)
Atlanta still doesn’t look like the team that reached the Super Bowl last year, but at least Matt Ryan and Co. put a three-game SU and ATS skid in the rearview mirror. The Falcons (5-3 SU, 2-5 ATS) held off the New York Jets 25-20 on Sunday, though they again failed to cash as a 6.5-point chalk.
Carolina has been up-and-down all season, as well, but ended a two-game hiccup in Week 8. The Panthers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) dropped Tampa Bay 17-3 as a 1.5-point road underdog.
“No one knows which Carolina club will show up for this one. The Panthers are one of the most mercurial teams in the league,” Cooley said. “Atlanta pulled out a quality win this week, but certainly something is amiss with the team. My best guess is that we’ll see some Falcons money, especially from the public, which I think we’d be happy with.”
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (no line)
Philadelphia might well be the league’s No. 1 team, certainly by looking at the standings. The Eagles (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have won six and a row and cashed five straight, plowing past San Francisco 33-10 laying 13 points at home Sunday.
As noted above, Denver still has to take a stern Week 8 test on Monday night in Kansas City. The Broncos (3-3 SU and ATS) are 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four outings, losing the last two in embarrassing fashion. Denver was a 13.5-point home favorite against the New York Giants and lost outright 23-10, then got bageled at San Diego 21-0 giving 1 point.
“Two teams quickly trending in opposite directions,” Cooley said. “The Eagles look like the NFC’s best team, and we’ll see if Denver can save some face Monday night and get back on track a bit. If nothing outrageous happens to the Broncos on Monday, we’ll open them around touchdown ‘dogs at Philly.”
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7)
It took nearly half the season, but Seattle finally caught up to the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC West. The Seahawks (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) won a wild one Sunday against Houston, getting a Jimmy Graham touchdown catch in the waning seconds to claim a 41-38 home victory as a 6-point chalk.
Washington is competitive every single week, yet finds itself with a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS record. The Redskins were within 26-19 Sunday against visiting Dallas, but Kirk Cousins threw a last-minute pick-six, cementing a 33-19 loss as a 3-point pup.
“Unfortunately, the injury bug just keeps biting for Washington,” Cooley said, alluding primarily to the Redskins’ battered offensive line. “But Jay Gruden is a great offensive mind, and he was able to keep his team in the game with half an O-line against Dallas. The public doesn’t back off Seattle, even if the Seahawks aren’t at their best, so we wanted to be generous with this number, especially considering the state the Redskins are in.”
Opening Line Report - Week 9
By Marcus DiNitto
VegasInsider.com
Here are the early betting numbers for the NFL’s Week 9 card, with thoughts from three prominent Las Vegas bookmakers – Nick Bogdanovich at William Hill U.S., Ed Salmons at the Westgate SuperBook and Jason Simbal at CG Technology.
Point-spreads and totals are the Vegas consensus as of about 4:00 p.m. ET Monday, with differences among books and early moves noted.
Thursday, Nov. 2
Buffalo Bills (-3.5 even, 42.5) at New York Jets
The line for the Thursday night opener has bounced between Buffalo -3 and -3.5 in early wagering, as the Bills continue to gain attention in Vegas.
“That defense is really good, they’re for real,” Simbal said of the Bills. “The Raiders did move the ball (in Buffalo’s 34-14 win Sunday), they had a lot of yards (367), but the Bills defense is so aggressive with takeaways (forcing four against Oakland). I thought the Raiders had a shot in the second half, looking at the numbers and total yards, but the Bills tightened the clamps.”
Simbal, though, pointed out that while the Bills are 4-0 at home (3-0-1 ATS), they’re just 1-2 on the road (2-1 ATS), so laying points in New York is no small task, especially on a short week.
Sunday, Nov. 5
Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-7, 43)
While the Eagles keep winning games and covering spreads (they’re on a 5-0 ATS run and are 6-2 ATS on the season), the line for next week’s game vs. the Broncos moved against them early, adjusted from -7.5 to -7 at both the Westgate and CG Technology.
Don’t be surprised if the number goes the other way before kickoff, however.
“There’s always so much money on them each week,” Bogdanovich said of the Eagles, one of the reasons he continues to raise his rating on Philly.
L.A. Rams (-3.5, 42) at N.Y Giants
William Hill opened Rams -4 and the Wynn opened -3, with the shops meeting in the middle at -3.5, where the game sits on most Vegas boards on Monday.
Tampa Bay Bucs at New Orleans Saints (-7, 50)
The -6.5 the Wynn hung on this NFC South contest Sunday night was bet up within a few hours to -7, the number at which most shops opened. CG, in fact, went to -7.5 (-105) on Monday.
While the Saints barely missed cashing as 8.5-point home favorites in their 20-12 win over the Bears on Sunday, they’ve won five straight outright.
“I like the Saints,” Bogdanovich said. “All those years Brees would score 30 and the defense would give up 40, they finally reverted to what wins – they can run the ball a little bit, control (the game) with a short passing attack, and they’ve got some defense. The defense is on the field less, and it looks like there’s some good chemistry, too. I’ve got the Saints rated pretty high.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Jacksonville Jaguars (-5, 39.5)
There’s been an early move on the Jaguars, who are coming off a bye, as William Hill’s opener of Jacksonville -3.5 spiked to -5 by Monday, and the Westgate adjusted from -4 to -5.5.
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-2, 44)
CG opened Carolina -1.5 and moved to -2 on Sunday night after booking a sharp bet on the home chalk, Simbal said.
While the number ranges from Carolina -1.5 to -2.5, anything under a field goal indicates the betting market rates the Falcons the better team.
“I still have Atlanta (rated higher), but I could be wrong,” Bogdanovich said. “I thought Atlanta would be the best team in the NFC this year, I drank the punch. But there’s just something missing – I don ‘t know what it is – but I still have Atlanta rated above Carolina. It’s close, but I’m a big Atlanta believer.”
Salmons added while the Falcons seem to be “just a hair better than Carolina,” their win at the Jets on Sunday didn’t assuage any concerns.
“Atlanta struggled to win that game, and it was a game they had to have,” Salmons said. “They were fortunate, they got a couple of lucky bounces along the way.”
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (-12.5, 48.5)
Houston opened -10.5 at the Westgate on Sunday, and by Monday, they were laying -12.5 at that shop and as many as -13 at others.
Standout rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson and the Texans turned heads on Sunday, even though they came out on the short end of the 41-38 shootout to Seattle.
“I realize the Seahawks defense isn’t what it once was, but going into that stadium and that environment, for a rookie to perform that way, it’s pretty impressive,” Simbal said.
Salmons, meanwhile, is excited about Houston’s prospects beyond this season.
“For years, we said if they only had an offense how dangerous they could be. Now they have one of the better offenses, but (many key players) are hurt on the defense, so that’s nullified them for this year. But moving forward, Houston has a chance to be really good,” Salmons said.”
Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans (-5.5)
At CG, the only Vegas book to hang a number on this game as others await word on Joe Flacco’s status, Tennessee opened -6 on Monday and was adjusted to -5.5.
Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 39) at San Francisco 49ers
The Wynn opened Arizona -1.5 on Sunday, with a move to -2.5 on Monday, and there’s a fairly even split of 2s and 2.5s as of this writing.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (-7, 45)
Chalk players can find Seattle -6.5 at the Wynn, while the Westgate is offering Washington +7.5 for gamblers looking to take the points.
Kansas City Chiefs at Dallas Cowboys (-2, 50)
Two of the bookmakers we spoke to – Bogdanovich and Simbal – are higher on the Cowboys than is Salmons, who needs to see more before he’s convinced of their worthiness.
Simbal rated Dallas as the 8th best team in the NFL, a position that will only improve after its 33-19 win at Washington (Kansas City is No. 2, according to Simbal).
Simbal said he’s a believer in the Cowboys and added, “Our numbers like Dallas as well. They’ve had one really bad game to Denver , but (there other two losses were) close games. They probably should have beaten the Rams, but at the time you didn’t realize the Rams were as good as they are, so that’s not as bad a loss as we originally thought.”
Added Bogdanovich, “I give the Cowboys a big shot (long term). I like their personnel. If the defense can give them anything, they’ll be fine...I like Dak, I like their line, I like their receivers, too. I’m bullish on the Cowboys.”
Salmons hasn’t been particularly high on Dallas all season, an opinion unchanged by the win over the Redskins.
“They beat up on Washington, who had three offensive lineman out in that game,” he said. “(The Redskins) played as hard as they could for as long as they could and they just ran out of gas. If Dallas can beat Kansas City next weekend, then I’ll be impressed.”
While most books sit tight on this game with running back Ezekiel Elliott’s suspension hanging in the balance, the Westgate opened Dallas -2 and moved to -1.5, and CG opened -2 and went to -2.5.
According to Bogdanovich, Zeke is worth a “point, maybe a point and a half” to the point spread, “and that’s super ridiculous for a running back.”
Supporting that estimate, Simbal said if news breaks that Elliott will not play Sunday, he anticipates adjusting his number to Dallas -1 and let the market dictate how it moves from there.
Oakland Raiders (-2.5, 44) at Miami Dolphins
Oakland’s been bet up from -2 to -3 at the Westgate for this Sunday night matchup of disappointing AFC clubs.
While Bogdanovich said he lowered his rating on Oakland slightly after Sunday’s showing in Buffalo, Salmons said, “The Raiders just looked awful, but Miami’s got to be the worst 4-3 team in the history of this league. They should be 0-7.”
Monday, Nov. 6
Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43) at Green Packers
Early action has been on the Lions in the Week 9 Monday nighter, as they were adjusted at the Westgate from a pick ‘em opener to -2.5 by Monday, and from -1.5 to -2.5 at William Hill
NFL Opening Line Report Week 9
By Adam Burke
Bangthebook.com
With arguably the best college football slate of the season coming up this week, there has been a ton of movement out in that market. But, as the day plods along on Monday, we’re seeing more and more colors on the odds screen. Games are starting to move around as numbers guys hit the board to start molding the market to their specifications.
Keep in mind how this whole process works. Oddsmakers throw out a number and hope to get some balanced action on both sides, but the real science comes with making adjustments and being sure not to get too exposed on one side versus the other. Numbers guys are out there hitting the board early on to grab the numbers that they want and then we sit and wait and watch for injury reports and increased limits.
Most of the board is filled in as we take a look at the Week 9 Opening Line Report:
Buffalo (-3, 43) at New York Jets – We haven’t seen a ton of involvement on this week’s Thursday Night Football game. Most of what we have seen has been buying the hook off of the opening 3.5, so the number is sitting down at 3. Keep in mind that buying half points around key numbers can get expensive, so anything that opened 3.5 (-115) or 3.5 flat (-110) was gobbled up by the numbers guys in the event that those hooks cannot be picked up later. We’ll likely see this one sit where it is for a while now.
Denver at Philadelphia (-7.5) – We’ll start with something very interesting. 5Dimes is the only sportsbook with this number out, but in advance of Monday Night Football, the look-ahead line for a short week and a trip to Philly for the Broncos is 7.5. Astute bettors will notice that it is a little bit higher or right around the number that Kansas City is favored by in Week 8. We’ll see what the rest of the market opens, but the spot with short-week travel cross-country seems to be priced in.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 42) at New York Giants – This is a notable line movement. It isn’t much, as least not yet, but we’ve seen bye week teams get steamed quite a bit. This game actually features two teams off the bye, but the Giants have been the preferred side. This line opened -4, but you cannot find a -4 in the offshore market at this point. Most books are sitting on 3.5 with varying juice.
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-4, 39.5) – Jacksonville has been the preferred sharp side in this one. The Jaguars are one of six teams coming out of the bye this week, which could be part of the rationale behind the move. It could also be that Jacksonville is just the better team. Some shops have already blown through the key number of 4 and right on up to 4.5. This one opened 3.5, so we have certainly seen the numbers guys make a statement early in the week. Expect this one to sit in that 4.5 or 5 range until we see if bigger bets bring the line down in the middle of the week.
Atlanta at Carolina (-2, 44) – The Panthers have been the preferred side here, but this line movement isn’t as notable as the previous game. Moves below the key number of 3 don’t take a whole lot of force to create. It is far more significant to see moves on or around key numbers. Atlanta is a statistics darling with a big offensive yards per play vs. defensive yards per play advantage, and we saw that come into play with a late-week move against the Jets to drive the number from 4.5 to as high 7. Carolina also got steamed last week, though that may have been a Jameis Winston fade with the shoulder injury. This one merits watching.
Arizona (-2.5, 39) at San Francisco – The buy light on the 49ers has officially burned out. After back-to-back blowout losses, nobody wants to back the CJ Beathard-led 49ers. The travel spots are also getting quite bad for San Francisco, off of yet another early kickoff in the Eastern Time Zone. Arizona is off the bye, which is an automatic line move these days. The Cardinals were embarrassed 33-0 in London by the Rams prior to the bye. Keep in mind that this is Drew Stanton and not Carson Palmer, which makes the road favorite and the steam a little bit more interesting. This number opened Arizona -1 with a little bit of extra juice, so it seems like oddsmakers definitely expected the Cardinals to be the preferred side. Again, we’ve seen teams off the bye get hit early in the week with regularity.
Oakland (-2.5, 44) at Miami – Playing the Sunday Night Football game out east can sometimes be detrimental to teams, but not the Raiders. The Raiders are locked in back-to-back travel after being a very sharp side against Buffalo last week. Oakland lost, but didn’t look as bad in doing it as the final score would suggest. Another angle to look for in the betting market is that teams off of misleading box scores often get steamed the following week. We see it all the time in college football and we see it in the NFL. Oakland lost 34-14, but had 5.8 yards per play to Buffalo’s 5.2. A -3 in turnover margin was the difference for Oakland. Some books opened Oakland -2.5 and went up to -3. Others are digging in with some extra juice. Either way, we should see -3 painted across the market soon enough.
Detroit (-2.5, 43) at Green Bay – In a rare change of pace, here’s a team off the bye not getting any love from early-week bettors. Apparently nobody wants to buy in with Brett Hundley. The Lions deserved a better fate on Sunday Night Football. Matt Stafford threw for over four bills and the Lions ran up 482 yards with seven yards per play. It was actually a terrible beat for over bettors. The Lions got into the red zone five times and didn’t score a touchdown. The Steelers were there three times and only scored one touchdown. With a fairly misleading final score, we see a move on the Lions as a road favorite at Lambeau Field on a Monday Night against a team off a bye. This is really significant. Keep in mind that the goal of any line is to balance action. Seeing any team as a home dog on Monday Night Football would typically induce money on that side. Books don’t seem to be as worried here and the initial move would support their claims.
NFL Line Watch Week 9
By Art Aronson
Covers.com
Game to bet on now
Cincinnati at Jacksonville (-4)
The Jags have quietly and efficiently built the best defense in the league. Best vs. the pass. Most sacks. Fewest points allowed. Sixth-best in total yards allowed. They do give up some yards on the ground, and that’s where the 3-5 Bengals will have to attack in they want to hang in and remain viable in the AFC North. Oddly, the Jags seem to be worse (1-2) at home than they are on the road (3-1), but that doesn’t mean much considering the small sample size. Jacksonville needs to keep pace with Tennessee, which has won two straight and appears to be getting better. With the line opening at -2 in some books and moving to -4 in others, there is already an opportunity to middle this one.
Game to wait on
Oakland at Miami (+2.5)
The Dolphins have been outscored by an average of nearly nine points a game but somehow have managed to stay afloat in an AFC East division that isn’t all that bad this season. Much of that deficit is attributable to that 40-0 turd of a loss at Baltimore, but Thursday games almost shouldn’t count on a team’s record because so many struggle mid-week. At any rate, Miami will benefit from a few extra days of rest and will be facing Raiders team that has by many accounts underachieved this season and will be making its second straight cross-country trip to the East Coast. The problem is at quarterback, where Jay Cutler has been out with a rib injury. He’ll play if he can, but if he can’t go, then Matt Moore (zero TDs, two INTs vs. the Ravens) will be thrown to the wolves again. Might be a good idea to hang on a bit, as this game might be a PK if there is good news on Cutler.
Total to watch
Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants (43.5)
Can it get any worse for the Giants? They were out of the playoffs before September was over, their best offensive player (Odell Beckham) is done for the year after ankle surgery and there is talk that it might be time to sit down Eli Manning and get a look at a backup who might be competing for the No. 1 job when training camp starts next summer. Yikes. The Giants are one of six teams not averaging 300 total years a game, and appear to be catching the Rams at a bad time – LA has allowed a total of only 33 points in the last three and is coming off a shutout win over the Cardinals.