NFL Opening Week Review
By Jim Feist
The best time of the sports calendar is here, the opening week of the pro football campaign! There are mountains of stats and angles available for sports bettors to digest from this season and years past. Information certainly is a huge key when analyzing games and point spreads. Sometimes it can seem that there is too much info, but it's essential to understand that stats are only a starting point. They don't always tell the whole story. In fact, stats can sometimes lie, something to keep in mind when searching for football picks.
Sure, it's important to ask such questions as, "How many yards passing per game does his team get? How big is this offensive line compared to the opponent? Is a great quarterback going up against a team with slow defensive backs? What's their home record the last five years, straight up and against the spread?" However, it's important to learn when to look beyond stats. For example, here are some stats from the 2010 NFL season:
*The Texans were third in passing offense.
*The Steelers were 14th in passing offense
*Chargers were No. 1 in total defense.
*The 49ers were 6th in rushing defense.
*The Patriots ranked No. 8 in points allowed.
*The Raiders were 11th in total defense.
*The Raiders were No. 10 in total offense.
*The Bills ranked third in pass defense.
Now, all of those 2010 stats are true. However, they don't tell the real story about a football team's strengths, either. For instance, the Texans had a great passing offense behind QB Matt Schaub and WR Andre Johnson but there is another key piece to the puzzle for them: The defense was terrible, the third most yards allowed, plus dead last in pass defense. They had to throw often as they trailed a lot with an awful defense. That's a combination totals bettors would want to know, and note that Houston is 19-7 over the total in their last 26 games in September.
While the Texans were so good in passing the football, the Steelers ranked in the middle of the pack at 14th. However, don't think for a minute that the Steelers can't throw the football or were mediocre. Pittsburgh didn't throw as much as Houston because they were determined to have an effective ground game with Rashard Mendenhall, plus the defense was dominant (second in yards, tops in points allowed) so they didn't have to throw the football playing catch-up that often. Of course, is they had to throw it, they could do it very well, as we saw in the playoff comeback against Baltimore with 24 second half points and 227 passing yards.
San Diego was No. 1 in total defense last season. When you realize they were also No. 1 in total offense, they shaped up on paper as the dominant team of 2010. However, they didn't even make the playoffs. What happened? The defense was forced to play the short side of the field often because of turnovers and their special teams was so awful. They were a strong defensive team, but the stats are a big misleading.
How about the 49ers ranking sixth in rushing defense! Very impressive. In reality, nothing was impressive about the 49ers last season. They were "good" statistically against the run because they were so bad against the pass, giving up 231 yards in the air per game (9th worst). The reverse was true with the Bills, great against the pass because they couldn't stop the run, dead last allowing 169.6 yards per game.
The Patriots ranked 8th in points allowed, but gave up a ton of yards. So where they a strong defensive team or not? Not. Their third down defense was atrocious, worst in the league, which was a big reason we saw so many changes in the secondary the last few weeks, releasing James Sanders and Brandon Merriweather. No. 8 in points allowed suggests a Top 10 defense, but they were not, a weakness that was exploited in the playoffs by the Jets, giving up 120 yards rushing, 314 yards overall and a poor 6 of 13 on third down.
The Raiders may have been 10th in total defense, but they played a lot of bad offensive teams. When they stepped up to play the Steelers, it wasn't even close, a 35-3 loss. The 2008 champion Steelers ranked 22nd in total offense, a ball control offense with a sensational defense. But the offense was no liability, with a talented passing game of QB Ben Roethlisberger, TE Heath Miller and WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes. We saw how good that passing offense could be when they needed a quick score - in the final seconds of the Super Bowl.
Back in 2004 and 2005 the Steelers ranked 28th and 24th in passing offense, yet those "poor" stats were deceptive. The Steelers are primarily a power-running team, and highly successful at it, getting out in front early and then chewing up the clock. It worked often during a 15-1 regular season in 2004 and winning the Super Bowl in 2005. They didn't need to pass a lot, although when forced to pass, they were able to move the ball through the air with Roethlisberger and terrific wide receivers. The stats may suggest a poor passing team, but the reality was quite different.
Four years ago Cleveland was No. 13 against the pass, but anyone watching the Browns saw a very poor defense. They were 25th against the run, so teams could wear them down on the ground, making the passing game just as effective. The Browns allowed 238 points, one of the poorest marks in the league. Successful handicappers dig deep and weigh all the strengths and weaknesses before heading to the betting window. All of which is needed when searching for football picks.