NFL Pick Six - Week 16

Pick Six - Week 16
December 23, 2017
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Week 15 Record: 3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS
Overall Record: 43-47 SU, 38-48-2 ATS

Chargers (-6 ½, 42 ½) at Jets – 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 7-7 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 10-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

The Chargers squandered a golden opportunity to take over first place in the AFC West in last Saturday’s 30-13 setback at Kansas City. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak as quarterback Philip Rivers threw three interceptions for the second time this season against the Chiefs. Since the 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS start to the season, Los Angeles has won and covered in seven of the past 10 games, while riding an 8-1 stretch to the UNDER the last nine contests.

New York
Record: 5-9 SU, 8-5-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The Jets have dropped seven of nine games since a surprising 3-2 start, while coming off consecutive road losses at Denver and New Orleans. New York hung in last week’s loss at the Superdome, while cashing as 16 ½-point underdogs in a 31-19 defeat. The Jets turn to Bryce Petty once again at quarterback after Josh McCown suffered a season-ending hand injury at Denver. New York closes out its home slate looking to finish 7-1 ATS at Met Life Stadium, while already picking up home ‘dog wins over Miami, Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Kansas City.

Best Bet: Chargers -6 ½

Rams (-6 ½, 46 ½) at Titans – 1:00 PM EST

Los Angeles
Record: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 9-5 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

The Rams made a bold statement in last Sunday’s 42-7 rout of the Seahawks in Seattle that they are not only the team to beat in the NFC West, but also a threat to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. Running back Todd Gurley racked up 152 yards on the ground and three touchdowns, including a 57-yard touchdown scamper on 3rd and 20 to give the Rams a 34-0 halftime edge. Los Angeles has done most of its damage on the road this season by posting a 6-1 record away from the Coliseum, including a 3-1 ATS mark as an away favorite.

Tennessee
Record: 8-6 SU, 6-7-1 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 125/1

The Titans wrap up a three-game stretch against NFC West opponents as Tennessee tries to break through following close losses at Arizona and San Francisco. Tennessee still has an outside shot to clinch the AFC South title, but needs a victory on Sunday and a Jacksonville loss at San Francisco to set up the division championship next week against the Jaguars at home. The Titans have excelled at Nissan Stadium this season by winning five of six games, while being listed as a home underdog for the first time.

Best Bet: Titans +6 ½

Falcons at Saints (-5 ½, 52 ½) – 1:00 PM EST

Atlanta
Record: 9-5 SU, 6-8 ATS, 9-5 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 16/1

The Falcons are playing their best football at the right time by winning five of their past six games. Atlanta held off Tampa Bay last Monday night, 24-21 as the Falcons failed to cash as seven-point road favorites, but improved to 5-2 away from Mercedes Benz Stadium. The defending NFC champions seek the season sweep of the Saints after beating New Orleans, 20-17 in Week 13 for their third consecutive win in the series.

New Orleans
Record: 10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS, 8-6 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 10/1

Since pulling off eight consecutive victories, the Saints have split their last four games as they sit in a tie atop the NFC South with Carolina (New Orleans holds the tiebreaker). However, the Saints have covered only once in their past five contests, including a pair of non-covers as heavy home favorites against the Jets and Redskins. New Orleans has topped the 30-point mark in each of its previous four home games, while scoring exactly 32 points in each of its two defeats to Atlanta last season.

Best Bet: Falcons +5 ½

Bills at Patriots (-12, 47) – 1:00 PM EST

Buffalo
Record: 8-6 SU, 8-5-1 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 80/1

Following a 30-point rout at the hands of the Chargers in mid-November, the Bills have suddenly won three of four games to stay alive for a Wild Card berth. The lone loss in this stretch came at home to the Patriots in Week 14 as 7 ½-point underdogs, 23-3, the 13th home defeat to New England in the past 14 seasons. However, the Bills have won in Foxboro in two of the past three seasons, including a 16-0 shutout in 2016, although Tom Brady didn’t play as he was serving a four-game suspension.

New England
Record: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/5

The Patriots wrapped up their ninth consecutive AFC East title in a controversial finish in a 27-24 triumph at Pittsburgh. Dion Lewis scored the go-ahead touchdown with under a minute remaining in regulation, while the potential game-winning score by Pittsburgh was overturned on instant replay. New England improved to 15-1 in its past 16 road contests, while cashing the UNDER in eight of the previous 10 games overall. Since starting the season 0-3 at Gillette Stadium, the Patriots have covered in each of their past three home victories.

Best Bet: Patriots -12

Jaguars (-4, 42) at 49ers – 4:05 PM EST

Jacksonville
Record: 10-4 SU, 9-5 ATS, 7-7 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 12/1

The Jaguars clinched their first playoff berth since 2007 as Jacksonville finished off a three-game homestand a perfect 3-0 following a 45-7 blowout of Houston as 10 ½-point favorites. After scoring 30 points only twice in the first 11 games, Jacksonville eclipsed the 30-point mark in each of the past three contests. Two of Jacksonville’s four losses this season have come against NFC West opponents, losing to Los Angeles and Arizona, while allowing 27 points in each of those defeats.

San Francisco
Record: 4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: OFF

The 49ers have found their quarterback as Jimmy Garoppolo owns a perfect 3-0 record since taking over the starting spot. The most recent victory came against Tennessee last Sunday, 25-23, the second win in three weeks coming on a last-second field goal. San Francisco has cashed in three of the past four opportunities in the underdog role, as the Niners host the Jaguars for only the second time in franchise history (20-3 win in 2009).

Best Bet: 49ers +4

Seahawks at Cowboys (-4 ½, 47 ½) – 4:25 PM EST

Seattle
Record: 8-6 SU, 5-8-1 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

Seattle’s playoff chances took a major hit with losses the last two weeks to Jacksonville and Los Angeles. The Seahawks were run from the start in a 42-7 defeat to the Rams last Sunday, suffering their third home loss of the season. Seattle has struggled in the road underdog role this season, posting a 1-3 SU/ATS record with all three losses coming by eight points or less. The Seahawks are making their first trip to Dallas since edging the Cowboys, 13-12 in 2015 as 4 ½-point road favorites.

Dallas
Record: 8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS, 8-6 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 50/1

Ezekiel Elliott returns for the Cowboys following a six-game suspension looking to boost Dallas’ offense. Following a three-game skid to begin Elliott’s ban, the Cowboys rebounded with three straight victories to get back into the playoff race. The key to this winning streak has been on the defensive side as Dallas has yielded 17 points or fewer in all three victories. The UNDER cashed in five of six games without Zeke, compared to a 5-3 OVER mark in the first eight contests of the season.

Best Bet: Cowboys -4 ½