NFL Playoff Primer
By Brian Edwards
The NFL Playoffs have arrived with 12 teams vying to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Five clubs – New England, Cincinnati, Green Bay, New Orleans and the New York Jets – weren’t in the postseason last year. Seven squads are back in the playoffs but the defending champions, the Steelers, are already on vacation.
In the NFC, the Saints and Vikings are the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds, respectively. Meanwhile, the Colts and Chargers occupy the top slots from out of the AFC. These four teams will be chilling this weekend with byes, while eight clubs face do-or-die situations.
And that’s why we love the playoffs. There’s no gray area whatsoever. If you survive, you advance. If you lose, you’re headed home – as in see-ya-beat-it and thanks for playing.
Gamblers have a day-night doubleheader set for Saturday. For starters, fourth-seeded Cincinnati will host the Jets at 4:30 p.m. Eastern at Paul Brown Stadium. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Bengals as four-point favorites with a total of 36.
As of late Monday morning, most spots had Marvin Lewis’s team listed as either a 2 ½ or three-point ‘chalk.’ The books at 2 ½ were forcing bettors to lay double juice (risk $120 to win $100) on Cincy, while Bengals’ bets were for even-money if laying three points. The total was reduced to 34 ½, while Rex Ryan’s club was plus-125 on the money line (risk $100 to win $125).
This is a rematch of the regular-season finale played Sunday night in the Meadowlands. Although the Bengals were gunning for the No. 3 seed, they rested workhorse running back Cedric Benson, who rushed for 1,251 yards and six touchdowns in a breakout campaign.
Other than that, however, Cincy was full-go in a game the Jets had to win to get into the postseason. They did so in convincing fashion, trouncing the Bengals 37-0 as 10-point home favorites. The 37 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 33-point tally when New York scored its last touchdown with 9:55 remaining.
How inept was Carson Palmer’s offense before he was yanked midway through the third quarter? Well, Cincy finished with the lowest amount of total offense (72 yards) in an NFL game since the Houston Oilers mustered just 83 yards in 1971. Palmer completed just 1-of-11 passes for zero yards and threw an interception.
Chad Ochocinco suffered a bruised knee in warm-ups, but he’s expected to be at full speed Saturday. The same can’t be said for DT Pat Sims, who is done for the year after breaking his forearm.
In Saturday’s prime-time affair, we get the second of three Week 17 rematches. This one will feature the Cowboys and Eagles in Arlington. LVSC opened Dallas as a 4 ½-point favorite with a total of 45 ½. As of late Monday morning, most spots had the ‘Boys favored by four with the total adjusted to 45. Bettors can take Philadelphia to win outright for a plus-170 return (risk $100 to win $170).
Andy Reid’s team could’ve clinched a first-round bye and taken the No. 2 seed from Minnesota with a win at Dallas. But the Cowboys won their third straight game to garner the third seed in the NFC, beating up on Philly by a 24-0 count as three-point home ‘chalk.’
Wade Phillips’ team will have to beat the Eagles for a third time this year to advance. When they met in the City of Brotherly Love, Dallas collected a 20-16 win as a three-point road underdog.
Philadelphia went on the road in last year’s playoffs and won a pair of games – at Minnesota and at the New York Giants before eventually losing at Arizona. Although the ‘Boys appear to be rolling, gamblers should remember that they haven’t won a postseason game since 1996.
On Sunday, Baltimore and New England will collide in Foxboro for the lid-lifter at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. LVSC opened the Patriots as 6 ½-point favorites with a total of 42. When it was learned later Sunday that WR Wes Welker is “out” for the playoffs with a knee injury, LVSC adjusted the Pats’ number to 5 ½.
As of late Monday morning, most betting shops had Bill Belichick’s club as the four-point home ‘chalk’ with the total increased to 43. The Ravens were plus-170 on the money line.
New England went unbeaten at home this year, compiling a 5-3 spread record in eight outings. The Pats were 4-0 against the spread as single-digit home favorites, including a 27-21 win over the Ravens as one-point home ‘chalk’ back in Week 4.
Tom Brady threw for 258 yards and one touchdown, a 14-yard scoring strike to Randy Moss. Welker had six receptions for 50 yards. For the Ravens, Ray Rice ripped the Pats for 103 rushing yards on only 11 carries. Joe Flacco had 264 passing yards to go with two TD tosses and one interception.
Finally, the Packers will fly back to Phoenix again to take on the Cardinals at 4:30 Sunday. LVSC opened Arizona as a three-point favorite (at even-money) with a total of 48 ½. As of late Monday morning, most spots had the Cardinals favored by 2 ½ with the total at 48.
Green Bay handed out woodshed treatment to the Cards in Week 17, rolling to a 33-7 triumph as a three-point road underdog. Aaron Rodgers completed 21-of-26 throws for 235 yards and one touchdown without an interception. On the flip side, Kurt Warner played sparingly, connecting on 4-of-6 attempts for 31 yards without a TD or a pick.
Since a stunning loss at Tampa Bay, the Packers have won seven of their last eight games. Even better, they are 7-0-1 ATS during this span. The lone outright defeat came at Pittsburgh when Ben Roethlisberger threw a TD pass to Mike Wallace on the final play of the game.
Let's not dismiss Ken Whisenhunt's squad based on the beatdown from the Pack. Remember, Arizona took similar shellackings late in the regular season last year from Minnesota at home and at New England in the snow, only to respond with its improbable run to the Super Bowl.
As for future numbers at Sportsbook.com, Indianapolis is the 5/2 ‘chalk’ (risk $100 to win $250). The Colts won their first 14 games, only to lose their last two when Jim Caldwell elected to rest key starters like Peyton Manning. San Diego, the No. 2 seed in the AFC, has the second-shortest future number at plus-350 (risk $100 to win $350).
Like Indy, the NFC’s top seed has lost its winning touch down the stretch. New Orleans started 13-0 before losing its last three games. Nevertheless, the Saints have the shortest odds of NFC teams at 4/1.
The rest of the future odds at Sportsbook.com look like this: Minnesota (6/1), Dallas (12/1), New England (12/1), Philadelphia (20/1), Green Bay (22/1), Arizona (25/1), Baltimore (25/1), Cincy (40/1) and the Jets (50/1).
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
The ‘under’ is on an 8-1 run in the Cowboys’ last nine games.
The ‘under’ is on a 6-1 run in Arizona’s last seven outings.
Jets rookie QB Mark Sanchez has an abysmal 12/20 TD-INT ratio.
Props to St. Louis RB Steven Jackson, who never quit running hard and didn’t quit on his abysmal team (think Larry Johnson with the Chiefs). He finished second in the NFL in rushing yards (1,416), averaging 4.4 yards per carry.
The Falcons still haven’t made the playoffs in back-to-back seasons in franchise history. However, they FINALLY have posted consecutive winning seasons after going 9-7 thanks to Sunday’s 20-10 win at Tampa Bay as 1 ½-point road favorites. The win over the Bucs also allowed 'over' backers (8 1/2) for Atlanta's season win total to cash tickets.
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