NFL Playoff Report 1/12/2008
By Lenny Del Genio
For the third consecutive year, bye week teams struggled immensely in the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, losing and failing to cover three of four games. Only the Pittsburgh Steelers survived. Collectively, bye week teams are now just 2-10 ATS in this round over the last three seasons. You can bank on the oddsmakers making an adjustment next year as teams coming in with the week of rest will no longer be laying the amount of points we’ve been accustomed to seeing over the past decade.
It has truly been a bizarre year when it comes to NFL Playoff Betting. In the Wild Card Round, all four road teams opened as the favorite, although only two of them won and covered. However, when you add those results to what we saw this past weekend, five of eight home teams have lost outright this postseason. Whatever happened to home field advantage? Clearly, the most stunning result was Arizona’s 33-13 destruction of the Panthers in Carolina, who was 8-0 during the regular season at home.
What has become apparent is that former Commissioner Pete Rozelle’s dream of ultimate parity has been achieved. Teams like the 2007 New England Patriots (although they did not win the Super Bowl) are no longer the norm. Any team can truly beat any team on any given Sunday. Because of realignment, being a division winner doesn’t necessarily mean what it used to. Teams playing at home during the postseason simply are no longer measurably better than their visiting counterparts, and as we’ve seen the home field edge sometimes no longer even matters.
Therefore, it should come as no surprise that we have two of the most shocking pairings in Conference Title Game history this year: Baltimore (33) at Pittsburgh (-5.5) and Philadelphia (-3.5) at Arizona (48.5). I don’t think there is a single NFL observer out there that was calling for these matchups two weeks ago, let alone back in August.
It’s interesting to note that this will be the first time ever since the playoff format was realigned in the early 1990’s that neither top seed has advanced to the Conference Title Game. How does a team perform when they unexpectedly get to play host in their conference championship? Also, we have a home underdog this week. How have teams getting points at home in conference championships performed in the past? We look to answer both questions below:
Non #1 Seeds Hosting Conference Title Games
2008 – Green Bay (-8) lost to NY Giants, 23-20
2007 - Indianapolis (-3) beat New England, 38-34
2006 – Denver (-3) lost to Pittsburgh, 34-17
2001 – Oakland (-6) lost to Baltimore, 16-3
1998 – Pittsburgh (+2.5) lost to Denver, 24-21
1997 – New England (-7) beat Jacksonville, 20-6
1996 – Pittsburgh (-12) beat Indianapolis, 20-16 (did not cover)
1993 – Miami (+2.5) lost to Buffalo, 29-10
Compiling the statistics, we find that non-#1 seeds hosting Conference Title Games are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. Note that this situation had never presented itself in the NFC until last year.
Home Dogs in Conference Title Games
Home dogs in Conference Championship Games have been terrible since the playoff format was realigned, going 1-4 SU/ATS. However, the lone win and cover was a ridiculous 41-0 victory by the Giants (+2.5) over Minnesota in the 2001 NFC Title Game. Here are the four losses:
2005 – Pittsburgh (+3) lost to New England, 41-27
1998 – San Francisco (+2.5) lost to Green Bay, 23-10
1998 – Pittsburgh (+2.5) lost to Denver, 24-21
1993 – Miami (+2.5) lost to Buffalo, 29-10
So, there you have it. Be sure to use this useful information as the starting point for your own Conference Championship Game handicapping.