NFL Playoffs Betting News and Notes

Wild Card Concepts
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com

Handicapping the NFL Playoffs can be a bit tricky.

The knee-jerk reaction is to back home teams. After all, they have been a solid-moneymaker, going 161-131-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved faster than an Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water.

A closer look finds home teams just 108-98-5 ATS (52.4%) since 1990 and, even worse, 55-57-1 ATS (48.1%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

The key is breaking the playoffs down into rounds. And in doing so it’s wise to remember the linemakers have made the visiting teams more attractive (read: value-laden) than ever before.

Let’s break down opening round games involving unrested, No. 3 or lower seeded teams, in opening round playoff games with these three time-tested theories. Note: all results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are since 1980, unless noted otherwise.

Stun Guns

Teams in NFL Wild Card round contests playing off a straight up season ending loss as a favorite tend to bounce back up off the carpet, going 20-10-1 ATS - including 0-2 ATS last year. (Detroit, Denver)

Better yet, dress them up as 'dogs and they improve to 14-5 ATS. (Detroit, Denver)

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 20-36-1 ATS – including 3-1 ATS last year. (Cincinnati, Detroit)

Bring these highwaymen in off a double-digit division loss and they drop to 2-11 ATS.

ATS Diabetes

NFL Wild Card teams off a season ending blowout win in which they beat the spread by 10 or points suffer from more than a sugar rush, going just 21-33-1 during this round – including 2-0 ATS last year. (Atlanta, New York Giants)

These same unappealing teams are even less palatable when playing off a straight up underdog win, going 4-16-1 ATS.

Notice that all three of these Wild Card angles defied each theory in a major way last season. Will they revert back to form or continue their stubborn ways in 2011? Stay tuned.

There you have it. I’ll be back next week with a peek at the Divisional Round playoff matchups.

Total Talk - Wild Card
By Chris David
VegasInsider.com

Coincidentally, the season began with some shootouts and it ended with some too. Five teams busted the 40-point barrier in Week 17 and another four put up 30-plus as well. In the end, the ‘over’ went 9-7. On the season, the ‘under’ still produced a 129-120-5 (52%) mark. What’s a little surprising with the overall number is that the ‘over’ went 19-13-1 (59%) in the primetime games played on Sunday and Monday.

First Round Trends

The ‘under’ has produced a 17-11 (61%) in the first round of the playoffs the last seven seasons, which includes a 3-1 mark last year. Obviously anything can happen, evidenced by a 4-0 ‘over’ run in 2009 but the angles normally lead to low-scoring affairs.

Overtime Rules

We mentioned these last year and while it may or may not matter, it’s good to know that you can still cash a late ticket or even worse, lose. From the NFL and other outlets -- this postseason, each squad will have at least one possession in overtime unless the team that wins the overtime coin flip scores a touchdown on its initial possession. If the team that receives the ball first connects on a field goal, the other team will get a chance to match that score or best it with a TD. If no one scores during the first two possessions of overtime, the game ends automatically on the next score. Should the team with the ball first be forced to punt, or is forced into a turnover, the game reverts to sudden death.

Even though it seems impossible, you could see up to 12 points scored in the extra session. How? If Team A scores 3, then Team B matches with 3. The game then heads to the regular season OT format, which could see either Team A or B win the game with a field goal or touchdown. Imagine that bad beat!

Saturday, Jan. 7

Cincinnati at Houston: The Texans beat the Bengals 20-19 in Week 14 on the road and the combined 39 points barely slid ‘over’ the closing total of 37½ points. The game had nine scores, but only three were touchdowns. The final score was the dagger for ‘under’ bettors, which came with two seconds left. QB T.J. Yates, who was making his first start, tied the game at 19-19 with a six-yard touchdown pass before Neil Rackers sealed the win with a PAT. The total for the second encounter opened at 39 but is sitting at 38½ points. You could make a case that the total is too high, considering the Texans (17.4 PPG) and Bengals (20.2) both have legit defensive units. Houston has seen the ‘under’ go 10-5-1 this season, including a 6-1-1 mark at Reliant Stadium. Conversely, Cincinnati has watched the ‘over’ go 5-3 on the road.

Detroit at New Orleans: This matchup will also feature two teams meeting for the second time this season, as the Saints beat the Lions 31-17 in Week 13 on SNF. The game went ‘under’ the number (55.5) but could’ve easily gone the other way. New Orleans led 24-7 at the break but only put up seven in the final 30 minutes. It’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ when you look at the numbers. New Orleans has put up 41.1 points per game at home this season and Detroit’s attack (28.9 PPG) has been outside of the Motor City. The total is super-high (59), yet understood. The Lions have had three games with totals listed at 50 or higher and all three went ‘under.’ Meanwhile, New Orleans owns a 6-2 ‘over’ record with totals in the fifties.

Sunday, Jan. 8

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants: Tough total to handicap here, especially when the weather could be unpredictable by kickoff. The Falcons closed the season with four straight ‘over’ tickets, with the offense putting up an average of 33.3 PPG during this stretch. Meanwhile, the Giants closed with three consecutive ‘under’ winners behind a defense that gave up 51 combined points. So what will give here? Atlanta has been in two playoff games under head coach Mike Smith and both went ‘over’ as the team gave up 48 and 30 points albeit to Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay) and Kurt Warner (Arizona). Is Eli in that class? If you judge a quarterback by his playoff performances, then make a note that the younger Manning is 4-3 in the postseason. Ironically, all four wins came during the incredible 2007 Super Bowl run and Eli has never led the Giants’ offense to more than 24 points in the playoffs.

Pittsburgh at Denver: The last game of the Wild Card round also has the lowest total and it keeps dropping. The opener was as high as 35½ at a couple offshore outfits and its hovering around 34. Despite having a one-dimensional attack, the Broncos have watched the ‘over’ go 9-7 on the season, including 5-3 at home. Also, Denver has played four playoff teams this season and its defense has given up 22, 49, 45 and 41 points. Pittsburgh enters this game banged up, but the defense is playing lights out. The unit has given up an average of 7.5 PPG in the final six games, and to no surprise the ‘under’ has cashed in all of these games too. We understand that the Steelers haven’t faced any juggernauts during this stretch, and it’s hard to see Denver explode here. If you want to make a case for the ‘over’ in this spot, then perhaps turn your attention to Pittsburgh’s head coach. Mike Tomlin has been on the sidelines for seven playoff games for the Black and Gold and all seven have gone ‘over’ the number. Will the trend continue at Mile High?

Wild Card Saturday
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

Wild Card weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon with three teams that didn't make the postseason a year ago. The AFC South champion Texans head to the playoffs for the first time in franchise history as they host the Bengals, followed by the Saints and Lions hooking up at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in the nightcap. We'll begin in the Lone Star State with a pair of rookie quarterbacks looking to advance to the divisional playoffs.

Bengals at Texans (-3, 38½)

It seemed that when Peyton Manning was likely going to miss the entire season due to a neck injury, that the Texans were the odds-on favorite to win the AFC South. Houston didn't disappoint as Gary Kubiak's club finished 10-6 to claim the division crown, despite the fact the Texans lost their final three games of the regular season. Meanwhile, the Bengals dropped five of eight games down the stretch, but were able to qualify for the playoffs thanks to a winning a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Titans.

Cincinnati's road to the postseason took some interesting turns, even before the season began. The Carson Palmer era was coming to an abrupt halt after retirement threats, but the drafting of former TCU quarterback Andy Dalton turned out to be the blessing in disguise this franchise needed. Dalton started the final 15 games of the season and threw for 3,398 yards, while throwing for over 300 yards on just two occasions (both losses). Cincinnati's total defense ranked 7th in the league by allowing 316 yards per game, but the biggest exposure for the Bengals is very easy to find.

The Bengals began the season at 6-2, while covering seven times in the first eight contests. However, all six of those victories came against non-playoff teams (Browns, Bills, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks, and Titans). The two losses came to the NFC West champion 49ers and the AFC West champion Broncos, even though Cincinnati cashed as 3½-point road underdogs at Denver. The final three wins for the Bengals came against the Browns, Rams, and Cardinals, while losing twice each to division rivals Baltimore and Pittsburgh. One of the losses that almost cost the Bengals a playoff spot came in Week 14 against Saturday's opponent.

The Texans rallied past the Bengals in early December at Paul Brown Stadium, 20-19 as 2½-point 'dogs, the last win Houston pulled out prior to a three-game skid. T.J. Yates made several big plays on the final drive, including rushing for a first down on 3rd and 15 to keep the drive alive in Cincinnati territory. The rookie quarterback from North Carolina hit Kevin Walter for the game-winning touchdown strike in the final seconds of regulation to cap off a 13-point comeback, while Yates compiled his first (and only) 300-yard passing game of his short career.

Houston endured plenty of injuries this season, including the loss of starting quarterback Matt Schaub and standout receiver Andre Johnson for weeks at a time. Johnson has played in just three games since a hamstring injury suffered in a Week 4 victory over the Steelers, but the Pro Bowler will be a larger part of the offense this week. Schaub injured his foot in a Week 10 rout of Tampa Bay, while losing backup Matt Leinart the following week to a broken collarbone.

Defensively, the Texans played the final three months without former top pick Mario Williams, who suffered a torn chest muscle in a home loss to the Raiders. However, Houston's defense overcame the injury to their Pro Bowl defensive end by ranking 4th in the league in rushing defense and 3rd in passing defense. The Texans cashed the 'under' in 10 of 16 games, including a 6-2 'under' mark at Reliant Stadium this season.

Houston finished the regular season at 6-3-1 ATS as a favorite, while beating playoff teams Pittsburgh and Atlanta at home. Meanwhile, Cincinnati compiled a 4-3-1 ATS ledger in the underdog role, even though its last cover as a 'dog came in an early November comeback win at Tennessee.

Lions at Saints (-10½, 59½)

One year after getting bounced in the opening round of the playoffs, New Orleans is back where it belongs with a home playoff game against upstart Detroit. The Saints are currently the hottest team from both the SU and ATS standpoint, owning an 8-0 SU/ATS mark the last eight games since getting upset as 13½-point road favorites at St. Louis in Week 8. The Lions are making their first playoff appearance since 1999 after wrapping up the sixth seed in the NFC with a 10-6 record.

New Orleans' offense is rolling during this eight-game winning streak by scoring 40 or more points in three straight games. Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's all-time passing yardage record in a season, while tossing a career-best 46 touchdown passes and completing 71% of his attempts. The dominating fashion in which the Saints play in the Big Easy is fairly obvious this season by winning seven of eight home contests by 11 points or more.

The Lions shocked many casual football fans (and probably their own fans) with a 5-0 start out of the gate, including three road victories. Detroit cooled off by losing five of its next seven games, but solidified a spot in the postseason with three wins in the final four contests. The Lions eclipsed the 34-point mark eight times, while Matt Stafford finally lived up to the hype with 5,038 yards passing and 41 touchdowns.

Jim Schwartz's team started as a bettor's dream with four covers in the first five games during the 5-0 run, but quickly turned into a nightmare by putting together a 3-7-1 ATS record the final 11 contests. Detroit put up plenty of high-scoring contests away Ford Field with seven 'overs' in eight away games, but the lone 'under' came at the Superdome in Week 13.

The Saints took care of the Lions, 31-17 as nine-point favorites, while jumping out to a 24-7 halftime lead. Detroit played that game without DT Ndamukong Suh, who was serving the second game of a two-game suspension handed down by the NFL for unnecessary roughness in the Thanksgiving Day loss to Green Bay. The absence of Suh provided Brees with very little pressure, as the Saints' quarterback tossed three touchdowns and 342 yards. The game finished 'under' the total of 55, one of three occurrences in which Detroit cashed the 'under' in games closing at 50 or below.

NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Wildcard Weekend
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans (-3)

Why Bengals cover: The Texans are laying the customary three points for being at home, but oddsmakers are giving them no more of an edge than that. That’s because T.J. Yates – Houston’s third-string QB – is starting due to injuries suffered by Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart during the season. And even Yates is dinged up, recovering from a separated left (non-throwing) shoulder.

Cincy, meanwhile, is battle tested in the hotly contested AFC North. The Bengals lost five of their last eight games, but four of those were to Pittsburgh and Baltimore and the fifth was at home to these same Texans - a 20-19 setback on a last-second Houston touchdown. Marvin Lewis’ troops are a solid 6-1-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine on the road and they are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 catching three points or less. Cincy also has the NFL’s ninth-ranked scoring defense (20.2 ppg) and eighth-ranked yardage defense (316.3 ypg).

Why Texans cover: It never hurts to have Arian Foster (1,224 yards, 4.4 ypc, 10 TDs) toting the ball for you – or catching the ball (53 receptions, 617 yards). And he’s rested, sitting out last week after ripping off 158 yards two weeks ago against the Colts. Wideout Andre Johnson, hit-and-miss all season with hamstring issues, is also expected to play a lot Saturday.

Houston has a solid defense, at fourth in scoring (17.4 ppg) and second in yards allowed (285.7). Houston is also on several ATS upswings, including 6-2-2 overall, 7-3-1 as a home chalk and 4-0 in this occasional rivalry, winning the last three meetings straight up (SU).

Total (38.5): The bookmakers are expecting both teams’ defenses to keep things reasonable. The total has gone under in six of Texans’ last eight at Reliant Field and five of their last six as a home favorite. However, Cincy sports over streaks of 9-4 overall, 10-2 against AFC foes, 4-1 vs. winning teams and 4-1 after a SU loss. Last month’s Texans-Bengals contest seemed a sure under bet until Yates led the game-winning 80-yard TD drive, putting it narrowly over the 37.5-point number.

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints (-10.5)

Why Lions cover: This is the playoffs, and that’s a huge number for Saints to lay. Lions QB Matthew Stafford showed last week – and several other times this year – that he’s plenty capable of lighting up the scoreboard, hurling five TD passes while racking up 520 yards, outdoors in lousy weather against the Packers (albeit in a losing cause). Now, he gets to go back indoors with an offense that ranks fourth in the NFL at 29.6 ppg.

Detroit is 16-7-2 ATS in its last 25 catching more than 10 points, while New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 giving more than 10 points. Saints also shoulder ATS slides of 2-7 in January games, 2-5 in postseason play and 1-5 on Saturdays.

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees & Co. are the hottest team in the league entering the playoffs, with an offense that has shattered all sorts of records this season. The Saints rate second in scoring at 34.2 ppg and No. 1 in yards gained at a hefty 467.1 ypg. Matching Detroit’s offensive prowess won’t be a problem. In fact, these two teams met just five weeks ago at the Superdome and New Orleans held up its end of the bargain while stifling Detroit in a 31-17 victory as a 9-point favorite.

Sean Payton’s squad has ripped off eight consecutive wins, cashing in all eight and winning by 11 points or more six times in that stretch. Their last three games have been laughers, with the Saints breaking 40 in all three and winning by a minimum of 22 points. New Orleans is also on an 11-1 ATS tear in its home dome. Detroit, meanwhile, has covered just one of its last six (1-4-1 ATS) and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six vs. winning teams.

Total (58.5): That is a big total, though it’s clear these two offenses are capable of surpassing it. Detroit on over streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 34-16-1 in roadies and 5-1-1 as a road pup, while New Orleans carries over runs of 6-1-1 in the playoffs, 4-0 in home postseason play and 4-0 with Saints a chalk of more than 10.

Last month’s Lions-Saints clash reached 48 points - a touchdown short of the posted number of 55.

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3)

Why Falcons cover: This is a team that really played its way into the postseason, winning eight of its last 11 games after a 2-3 start. Atlanta went 3-1 SU and ATS in its final four games, with the three wins coming by eight points, 27 points and 21 points, respectively. The Giants, meanwhile, were 3-5 SU in their last eight and didn’t exactly look like a playoff-worthy team at times.

Atlanta has covered in its last five roadies against the Giants and the road team in this rivalry is on an 8-0 pointspread tear. New York is in ATS ruts of 1-4-1 laying points and 1-4-1 as a home favorite.

Why Giants cover: They got their act together after a four-game dive to win three of their last four SU and ATS, including Sunday night’s 31-14 home victory over Dallas to clinch the final NFC playoff spot. With the exception of an inexplicable loss at Washington, QB Eli Manning has had the offense clicking this past month, racking up 29 points or more four times. And when it gets to crunch time, Manning has produced. He’s got a league-leading 15 fourth-quarter touchdown throws this season.

The Giants have cashed four of their last five overall and five of their last six in the postseason. Falcons have failed to cover in their last four against winning teams, and they are in playoff ATS slides of 1-4 overall and 1-4 as an underdog. Atlanta also 1-5 ATS outdoors this season.

Total (47): Over has been the play in Atlanta’s last four games and is on further runs of 6-1-2 for Falcons in January and 8-3 for Giants against winning teams. However, New York on under surges of 6-1 in playoff games, 4-1 at home and 4-0 giving points. And in this rivalry, the under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9) at Denver Broncos

Why Steelers cover: Pittsburgh has the league’s No. 1 defense, allowing just 14.2 ppg and 271.8 ypg, and the Broncos can’t score, even against inferior opponents. Last week, Denver’s defense held a non-descript Kansas City squad to seven points, Denver’s offense got 145 rushing yards from Willis McGahee – and the Donkeys lost 7-3. Pittsburgh is no Kansas City, meaning Tim Tebow doesn’t have a prayer, no matter how many he says.

Pittsburgh, the defending AFC champ, is at its best at this time of year, especially at the books, with ATS streaks of 10-1 in January and 9-2 in the postseason, and it’s cashed six of its last seven as playoff chalk. Denver, conversely, has lost its last three games SU and ATS and is in further ATS ruts of 0-4 overall, 1-4 in the playoffs and 15-35-2 in the Mile High City.

Why Broncos cover: It’s really hard to make a case for a team that mustered just three points against the Chiefs at home last week. The Broncos are lucking out in that Pittsburgh is dinged up. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) is done for the rest of the year, QB Ben Roethlisberger has a gimpy ankle, and S Ryan Clark has to sit out due to a sickle-cell trait that doesn’t handle high altitude well.

Denver has covered in five of its last six from the underdog role and five of its last six home playoff games (though they haven’t been in the playoffs in six years). The Men of Steel have been more like tin on the road lately, at 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the highway and 1-5 ATS in their last six following a SU win.

Total (34): This is quite a low number, but based on Pittsburgh’s stout defense and Denver’s anemic offense, the under is certainly plausible. The total has gone low in six straight for the Steelers. On the flip side, though, the over is 17-4 in Pittsburgh’s last 21 postseason affairs and 10-1 with the Steelers a playoff chalk, and the Broncos sport over streaks of 25-12 overall, 13-5 at home and 14-3 against winning teams.

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com

There wasn’t a line on the board for this week’s Wild Card games that caused sharp or public money to coming running into Las Vegas sports books betting windows for perceived value. However, with two of the games posted up at minus-3, it was only a matter of time before those lines would shift one way or another and it happened on Friday.

Saturday’s early game has the Bengals visiting Houston where the Texans opened as three-point favorites, but have now been bet up to -3½. Most sports books went up the money ladder going to -3 (-120) until moving the spread while the South Point bounced back and forth twice when they became the first to offer 3½. The South Point is the only book to use flat numbers. When they saw there was immediate money to be had at +3 ½ with the Bengals, they went back down to 3, but at that time, everyone else had -3 (-120) which made their -3 flat number far more attractive and Texans money came in again bumping them to where they are now at -3½.

There were 35 NFL games that landed on ‘3’ (13.7%) this season, a drop of almost four percent from last season (17.6%) and one percent less than the last 5-year average (14.7%), but it‘s always a number that creates the most sharp business.

In years past when ‘3’ landed at a high rate, it wasn’t unusual to see sharp players play the percentages by taking the +3½ and laying the -3 at different times of the week, taking a shot that the game would land on ‘3.‘ The big bonus for them was when the key number was straddled giving the opportunity to win both sides. If it didn’t, then they lost a bit of juice, but their math was usually correct and when applying that strategy, they did pretty well over the long haul in those seasons.

Obviously, this season hasn’t been one of those. In fact, the number that showed up more frequently than the last few seasons was ’7’ which landed 30 times (11.7%). Last season ‘7’ hit only 7.9% of the time and the five year average has been 9.8%.

With ‘7’ landing more frequently and ‘3’ less, it’s surprising that more books haven’t protected 6.5, 7 and 7.5 with money attached up and down the ladder the way they do with 2.5, 3, and 3.5.

The other game sitting on ’3’ has the Giants hosting the Falcons. The Giants have been a strong 3-point favorite all week, but Atlanta money has found its way to a few books who have dropped the money to -3 (EVEN) on the Giants, an indication that we may see a 2 ½ soon. That number will most likely be at the South point once they reach their threshold at +3 on the Falcons.

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book opened the Steelers as 7½-point road favorites at Denver and the number currently sits at -9. Despite the Steelers not having running back Rashard Mendenhall (knee) and safety Ryan Clark (medical) for this game, the public still believes in a gimpy Ben Roethlisberger at playoff time more than a team on a three-game losing streak with a quarterback (Tim Tebow) who can’t throw. This is the most weighted game in public ticket counts with parlays and teasers featuring the Steelers prominently.

The total in this game has dropped from 35 to 33½, in part because of the Broncos poor offensive efforts the last two weeks, along with the admission that the Steelers appear the play to their level of competition. Pittsburgh played ugly ball this season with Jacksonville, Kansas City and Cleveland twice and Denver has shown all season that their willing to play some ugly ball as well. You can't help but thinking of Knicks-Pistons basketball from the early nineties when thinking about ugly ball.

The Saints are the second most weighted public team this week. They are 10½-point favorites against the Lions in a rematch from Week 13, which saw New Orleans win 31-17 as 9-point favorites. It’s easy to see why the public is all over the Saints because they have covered their last 8 games, plus they’ve gone 8-0 ATS at home as well. Why make a case for the Lions now?

The Saints total opened 58½ at the Hilton, which looks to be the highest number ever in postseason play, and has been bet up to 59½.

Sunday's Playoff Primer
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com

The NFL Playoffs continue Sunday with another doubleheader starting at 1:00 p.m. Eastern. That’s when the New York Giants will take on Atlanta at MetLife Field in the Meadowlands on FOX.

Most betting shops are listing Tom Coughlin’s club as a three-point favorite with a total of 47½. Gamblers can take the Falcons to win outright for a plus-135 return (risk $100 to win $135).

New York (9-7 straight up, 8-7-1 against the spread) won three of its last four games to win the NFC East, including a win-and-you’re-in victory over Dallas last Sunday night. The G-Men captured a 31-14 triumph over the Cowboys as a three-point home favorite.

Eli Manning completed 24-of-33 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. Victor Cruz’s breakout campaign continued as he hauled in six receptions for 178 yards, including a 71-yard TD reception in which he did most of the work with YAC (yards after [the] catch).

Perhaps most importantly, New York was able to get after Tony Romo, sacking the Dallas quarterback six times. Osi Umenyiora had a pair of sacks, while Justin Tuck and Jason Pierre-Paul both had one apiece.

Atlanta (10-6 SU, 7-8-1 ATS) is the NFC’s No. 5 seed thanks to last week’s 45-24 win over Tampa Bay as a 10-point home favorite. The victory, coupled with Detroit’s loss at Green Bay, gave the Falcons the fifth slot by virtue of their 23-16 win over the Lions earlier this year. (Therefore, they don’t have to face the Saints, at least not yet.)

Michael Turner rushed 17 times for 178 yards and two touchdowns against the Buccaneers. Matt Ryan completed 6-of-9 passes for 106 yards and a pair of scores before being given the rest of the day off. Rookie WR Julio Jones was on the receiving end of both scoring strikes.

For the season, Ryan has connected on 61.4 percent of his throws for 4,177 yards with a 29/12 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Boston College product has three lethal weapons in TE Tony Gonzalez, WR Roddy White and the aforementioned Jones.

White had a team-high 100 receptions for 1,296 yards and eight TDs, while Gonzalez made 80 catches for 875 yards and seven TDs. Despite missing three full games and parts of two others, Jones had 54 receptions for 959 yards and eight TDs. Turner carried the load on the ground, rushing for 1,340 yards and 11 TDs while averaging 4.5 yards per carry.

Even without a reliable running game to lean on, Manning played extremely well during the regular season, throwing for nearly 5,000 yards (4,933) with a 29/16 TD-INT ratio. Cruz had 82 catches for 1,536 yards and nine TDs, while Hakeem Nicks produced 76 receptions for 1,192 yards and seven TDs.

Although both New York RBs are now healthy, Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw were bothered by various injuries throughout the year. They combined for 1,230 rushing yards and 16 TDs, but both players had mediocre YPC averages (Bradshaw: 3.9, Jacobs: 3.8).

In my opinion, the most important matchup of the game is Atlanta’s offensive line vs. the Giants’ defensive front four. Pass protection was an issue at times for the Falcons, but part of that was due to injuries and the entire group is now healthy.

They’ll go up against a fierce Giants’ pass rush led by Pierre-Paul, who had a team-high 16 ½ sacks. Umenyiora had nine sacks even though he missed seven games.

Atlanta went 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS on the road this year, compiling a 1-2 record both SU and ATS in three road underdog situations. Meanwhile, the Giants posted a 4-4 SU record and a 3-4-1 ATS mark at home.

The ‘over’ has hit in four consecutive games for the Falcons with each contest having 54 combined points or more. However, they saw the ‘under’ go 9-7 overall while totals were a wash (4-4) in their eight road assignments.

The ‘over’ went 8-7-1 overall for the G-Men, but the ‘under’ was 4-3-1 in their home outings.

In the late game Sunday, Denver (8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS) will play host to Pittsburgh in the AFC quarterfinals. Most spots are listing the Steelers as 8 ½-point favorites with a total of 33½. The Broncos are plus-350 on the money line (risk $100 to win $350).

Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 7-9 ATS) has won six of its last seven games, but it is not in a good situation in terms of health going into the postseason. QB Ben Roethlisberger sustained a severe ankle sprain in a Dec. 8 win over Cleveland and he hasn’t been the same player since then.

Big Ben was ineffective in a 20-3 loss at San Francisco and then sat out the next week’s win over St. Louis. In a 13-9 Week 17 win at Cleveland, Roethlisberger re-aggravated the injury. He’ll play at Denver but won’t be at 100 percent.

Three key players won’t be in uniform for the Steelers, though. RB Rashard Mendenhall (1,082 rushing yards, 9 TDs) tore his ACL last week against the Browns, while starting safety Ryan Clark (blood disorder in high altitudes) and Maurkice Pouncey (ankle) are also ‘out.’

Mike Tomlin’s squad has been favored by seven or more on the road three times this year, going 3-0 SU but 0-3 ATS. The Steelers won but failed to cover at Indy (23-20), at KC (13-9) and at Cleveland (13-9). They have won five of their eight road games but are an abysmal 2-6 versus the number.

Likewise, Denver has been atrocious at home for our purposes, limping to a 1-7 spread record at Sports Authority Field.

John Fox’s lost four of its first five games before benching QB Kyle Orton in favor of Tim Tebow, who promptly led the Broncos to seven wins in their next eight games. However, this momentum has been halted by a three-game losing slide to close the regular season.

Denver lost a 7-3 decision vs. Kansas City as a one-point home ‘chalk’ last week, but it nonetheless clinched the AFC West title thanks to San Diego’s win at Oakland. Tebow had an awful game, completing just 6-of-22 throws for 60 yards and one interception.

The former Heisman Trophy winner has been intercepted four times the last two weeks compared to just one TD pass. However, for the season, Tebow has a 12/6 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 660 yards and six TDs.

Willis McGahee enjoyed a renaissance campaign, rushing for 1,199 yards, averaging 4.8 YPC. The combination of McGahee, Tebow and an improved offensive line helped Denver lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (164.5).

The ‘under’ is 10-6 overall for the Steelers, 4-4 in their road games. On the flip side, the ‘over’ is 9-7 overall for the Broncos, 5-3 in their home contests.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets

Green Bay is the 8/5 favorite to win the Super Bowl at Sportsbook.com. The rest of the website’s future odds look like this: Pats 7/2, Saints 5/1, Ravens 6/1, Steelers 10/1, 49ers 12/1, Giants 20/1, Texans 35/1, Falcons 40/1, Lions 50/1, Broncos 60/1 and Bengals 70/1.

Pittsburgh has the NFL’s top scoring defense, giving up just 14.2 PPG.

Denver owns a 5-2 spread record in seven underdog spots with Tim Tebow as its starter.

The ‘over/under’ for Big Ben’s passing yards is 260½ at Sportsbook.com, while Tebow’s tally is 149½. Tebow’s totals for carries is 8½ and his rushing yards is 47½.

NFL Wild Card Preview

Over last seven seasons, home teams are 13-15 SU in this round, after being 34-10 from 1993-2003; why has home field advantage become less of an advantage?

Bengals (9-7) @ Texans (10-6) - Battle of rookie QBs in Texans’ first-ever playoff game; Houston (+3) won 20-19 at Cincinnati four weeks ago, rallying back from down 16-3 at half to win with score in final minute- that clinched AFC South for them but they haven’t won since, losing last three games, last two by combined total of four points. Bengals were 3-5 in second half of season, limping into playoffs because Oakland lost in Week 17; they’re 5-3 on road this year, 5-2-1 vs spread, 4-1-1 as road dogs, losing away games by 2 at Denver, 7 at Baltimore, 28 at Heinz Field. Houston is 6-2 vs spread at home this year, losing last two at home after the division was clinched. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in the AFC 3-6 game the last ten years, with #6 seed winning the last three; average total in this game last five years is 34.0. Cincy split two visits here, with last one in ’08- last playoff game was home loss to Jets in ’09.

Lions (10-6) @ Saints (13-3) - New Orleans lost 31-21 at 2-14 St Louis in Week 8, game they trailed 24-0; since then, Saints won/covered all eight games, with six of eight wins by 11+ points; they’re 8-0 as home favorite this year, scoring average of 41.1 ppg in Superdome- they beat Lions here 31-17 (-7.5) five weeks ago, game they led 24-7 at half. Lions were just 2-11 on 3rd down that day, and had 11 penalties for 107 yards. That was only Detroit road game this year that didn’t go over total; average total in a Lion road game is 56.8. Detroit won three of last four games but lost 45-41 at Lambeau last week, giving up 469 passing yards to a backup QB. NFC’s 36 seed is 5-4 vs #3 seed last nine years (#6’s are 10-8 league-wide last nine years), but favorites covered this game three of last four years. Over last decade, favorites of 7+ points are 5-5 vs spread in this round. Saints are very sharp right now, scoring 13 TDs on last 17 red zone drives. Lions failed to cover last three tries as an underdog.

Falcons (10-6) @ Giants (9-7) - Atlanta played only one of its last 12 games outdoors, winning 31-23 at Carolina; they’re 2-3 as an underdog this, 4-4 SU on road- they’re 8-0 when they score 24+ points, 2-6 when they don’t. Giants just had must-win, emotional play-in wins over rivals the last two weeks after losing five of six games before that, hard to believe they won’t come out flat here against team they’ve beaten in last three meetings, last of which was two years ago. Big Blue scored 29+ points in four of last five games; they’re 3-5-1 as a favorite this year, were just 5-4 SU at home. Atlanta is dome team playing in northeast in January, but Ryan is Philly kid who went to BC, so he should be able to cope. Falcons Over last nine years, underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in NFC’s 4-5 game, with average total of 75.7 in last three; NFC’s #4 seed is 15-3 against the 5-seed the last 18 years, winning the last three. Falcons’ last playoff win was back in ’04; Giants’ last win was their Super Bowl win over New England four years ago.

Steelers (12-4) @ Broncos (8-8) - Over last 13 years, previous year’s Super Bowl loser is 2-5 in playoff games, 0-3 vs spread as favorite. Big Ben’s gimpy ankle makes this game risky business; he hasn’t thrown TD pass in last three games, as Steelers slept-walked to three wins in last four games (two over Browns, one over Rams). Pitt is 5-3 on road, but scored total of 29 points (two TDs, five FGs on 31 drives) in last three games on foreign soil. Denver limps into playoffs with three straight losses and QB who completed 40% of his passes in those games; Broncos are 5-4 as underdog this year, winning four of last five as dog SU- they’re 3-5 at home this year, with three of five losses by 5 or less points. These teams have split six playoff meetings, with four of six surprisingly played here. Steelers lost six of last nine visits here overall, but won 28-10 in last visit two years ago. This is Broncos’ first playoff game in six years. Again, over last nine years, #5 seed is 10-8 vs #4 seed in this round, 5-4 in each conference.

Falcons at Giants: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants (-3, 47.5)

THE STORY: Deja vu all over again? That's the mindset of the New York Giants, who are beginning to conjure up visions of their stunning Super Bowl run of 2007 as they prepare to host the Atlanta Falcons in an NFC wild card matchup on Sunday. The Giants have rebounded from a four-game losing streak to win three of their last four, including impressive victories over the New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys in the last two weeks to secure the NFC East title. Conversely, the Falcons are looking to purge the memory of last season, when they entered the playoffs as the No. 1 overall seed and were promptly shelled by eventual Super Bowl champion Green Bay in their postseason opener.

LINE: New York has stayed steady as a 3-point home favorite, however, to total has dropped from 49 to 47 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for partially cloudy skies with winds, blowing NW, at 9 mph. Game-time temperatures will be in the low 40s.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-6, 7-8-1 ATS): Atlanta may not possess the firepower of Green Bay or New Orleans, but it certainly is not lacking for weapons for quarterback Matt Ryan. Roddy White (100 receptions) and rookie Julio Jones (8 TDs) are a dangerous WR tandem and veteran TE Tony Gonzalez had 80 catches on the season. The key for the Falcons, though, will be RB Michael Turner, who rushed for 1,340 yards and 11 touchdowns and can play a huge part in slowing New York’s pass rush. Ryan threw for 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns – both career highs – and was picked off only 12 times. In his last four games, Ryan threw 10 TD passes and zero interceptions.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS): Eli Manning threw for 29 TD passes and a career-high 4,933 yards. He has uncovered a gem in big-play WR Victor Cruz, who hauled in nine scoring passes for a team-record 1,536 yards. Cruz capped the season by putting up 164 and 178 yards in the last two games, including TD receptions of 99 and 74 yards. The running game continues to struggle, ranking last in the league at 89.2 yards per game, but the defense is hitting its stride. DE Osi Umenyiora returned from a four-game absence to register two of New York’s six sacks against Dallas. The Giants have 11 sacks in the last two games and finished the season with 48.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning set a league record with 15 fourth-quarter TD passes this season.

2. The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Falcons, including a 34-31 OT victory in 2009.

3. Atlanta’s only losses since Week 3 have come to four division winners: Green Bay, Houston and New Orleans (twice).

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in New York.
* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.

PREDICTION: Giants 27, Falcons 24. Cruz makes another game-breaking catch to keep New York’s season alive.

Steelers at Broncos: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+9, 33.5)

THE STORY: The Pittsburgh Steelers enter the playoffs with running back Rashard Mendenhall out for the season with a knee injury and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger hobbled by a high ankle sprain. So, it begs the obvious question for pundits as the Steelers prepare to visit the Denver Broncos on Sunday night in an AFC wild card matchup: Is Roethlisberger more effective on one leg than Tim Tebow is on two? Tebow, as has been the case all season, will again be under the microscope when he leads Denver into its first playoff game since the 2005 season. The much-maligned Tebow directed the Broncos to six consecutive wins, including four fourth-quarter comebacks, but the wheels have come off during a three-game losing streak.

LINE: Pittsburgh opened as low as -7.5 and has been bet up to -9. The total opened at 34.5 and has come down to 33.5.

WEATHER: The forecast in Denver is calling for clear skies and game-time temperatures in the low 30s.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (12-4, 7-9 ATS): Pittsburgh was in contention for the No. 1 seed entering last weekend. Roethlisberger said he aggravated his ankle in the win at Cleveland and has struggled since suffering the initial injury in Week 14, but the Steelers have their defense to fall back upon. Pittsburgh allowed a league-low 227 points and has held five of its last six opponents under 10 points. During that span, the Steelers did now permit a touchdown in four of the games. Isaac Redman stepped in for Mendenhall and ran for a career-high 92 yards last week. Although Roethlisberger has struggled since hurting the ankle, he has won two Super Bowls and lost in last season’s title game to Green Bay.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-8, 7-9 ATS): The Tebow magic appears to have run out, particularly in back-to-back losses to the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. His passer ratings in those games were ghastly – 37.9 and 20.6, respectively. Tebow was wretched in last week’s 7-3 home defeat against the Chiefs, throwing for only 60 yards on 6-of-22 passing. He has been intercepted four times in the last two weeks and has committed 10 turnovers in the last five games. Expect the Broncos to lean heavily on running back Willis McGahee, who rumbled for 1,199 yards this season. McGahee, however, struggled against the Steelers in three seasons with Baltimore, managing only 183 yards on 61 attempts in six games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Roethlisberger has a 10-3 career record in the postseason.

2. The Broncos and Steelers have split six playoff matchups. The winner went to the Super Bowl on five of those occasions.

3. “People say he can’t throw the ball, he can’t do this. He finds a way to win.” – Roethlisberger on Tebow.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

PREDICTION: Steelers 24, Broncos 13. Pittsburgh’s defense overwhelms Tebow and sends Denver to a fourth straight loss.