NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 12
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Why Eagles cover: Are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Willis McGahee is still battling an ankle injury. Blitz-happy defense could pressure Joe Flacco into throwing interceptions.
Why Ravens cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. League’s top rush defense should shut down Philadelphia’s running game that is averaging only 82 yards in tits last three games.
Total (40): Over is 4-0-1 in Ravens’ last five games.
Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Why Texans cover: Browns could be without reception leader Kellen Winslow, who has a shoulder injury. Steve Slaton is showing no signs of slowing down and goes up against Cleveland’s 28th ranked rush defense.
Why Browns cover: Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Texans have yet to win on the road this season. Houston could be without both starting defensive tackles, which should open up the run game for Jamal Lewis.
Total (50½): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-10)
Why 49ers cover: Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Tony Romo will again play with a splint on his throwing hand. Need to win to stop Arizona from clinching the division.
Why Cowboys cover: Have won two of last three meetings. San Francisco’s three wins are against teams with a combined record of 4-26. Terrell Owens should be pumped to face his old team.
Total (47): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Dallas.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (+9)
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won four of the last five meetings. Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Detroit is allowing over 170 yards per game on the ground. Jeff Garcia threw for 316 yards and two TD's against the Lions last year.
Why Lions cover: Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Detroit. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Tampa Bay will be without leading rusher Earnest Graham, who is out for the season.
Total (41): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
Why Vikings cover: Have won two of three meetings. Are fighting for the NFC North lead. Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games and all but out of playoff contention.
Why Jaguars cover: Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Coach jack Del Rio vows that the team won’t give up on the season. Vikes could be without defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams, who are facing suspensions.
Total (40½): Over is 4-1 in Vikings’ last five road games.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (+3)
Why Bills cover: Chiefs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games. Kansas City’s defense is banged up and allowing over 27 points per game.
Why Chiefs cover: Have won five of their last six meetings with the Bills at Arrowhead Stadium. Buffalo is reeling and Trent Edwards has committed 10 turnovers in his last four games. Bills are 0-4 ATS in their last four games.
Total (43½): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Kansas City.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-1)
Why Patriots cover: Have won three of last five meetings. Need to win to stay ahead of the Dolphins in the tight AFC East. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Dolphins cover: Patriots are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings in Miami. Wildcat offense burned New England for three scores in Week 3 victory. Pats gave up 34 points to the Jets last week without Adalius Thomas in the lineup.
Total (42): Under is 9-2-2 in Patriots’ last 13 vs. AFC and 5-1 in Dolphins’ last six home games.
Chicago Bears at St. Louis Rams (+9)
Why Bears cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games. St. Louis could be without Orlando Pace, Richie Incognito and Steven Jackson on offense.
Why Rams cover: Marc Bulger has thrown for 943 yards and seven TD's in three games against Chicago. Kyle Orton is still battling a sore ankle. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Total (43): Over is 6-1 in Rams’ last seven home games and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans (-5)
Why Jets cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Thomas Jones has come alive averaging 107 yards rushing in his last five games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Why Titans cover: Could be getting both Kyle Vanden Bosch and Nick Harper back from injury to join Albert Haynesworth, who is having an MVP-caliber season. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
Total (41): Under is 7-3 in Titans’ last 10 vs. AFC and 9-4 in their last 13 games overall.
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-9.5)
Why Raiders cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. AFC’s fifth best pass defense could limit Jay Cutler and the Broncos. Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Broncos cover: Have won six of last seven meetings. Coming off two road victories in which many reserves stepped up in the absence of injured starters. Oakland is averaging 8.3 points per game over their last six.
Total (42½): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Denver.
New York Giants at Arizona Cardinals (+3)
Why Giants cover: Have won five of the last six meetings. Are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games. Dominant pass rush could make things difficult for immobile QB Kurt Warner.
Why Cardinals cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. Could clinch NFC West title this week. Bruising runner Brandon Jacobs has a knee injury and might not play.
Total (49): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Arizona.
Washington Redskins at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5)
Why Redskins cover: Have won last five regular season meetings. Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Matt Hasselbeck looked terrible after missing five games, throwing three interceptions in a loss to Arizona last week.
Why Seahawks cover: Redskins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Washington’s offense is struggling, averaging just 15.5 points per game over its last five. Clinton Portis is still dealing with a sprained knee and is a game-time decision.
Total (41): Under is 12-5-1 in Redskins last 18 games in November.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Why Panthers cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Have won three in a row at Atlanta. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Falcons cover: Michael Turner could eat up Carolina’s rush defense which is allowing close to 140 yards over its last two games. Panthers are 3-7-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Atlanta.
Total (42½): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (-1)
Why Colts cover: Get to face the NFL’s worst pass defense. Joseph Addai finally recovered from his hamstring injury. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Chargers cover: Peyton Manning has thrown eight interceptions in his last two games against San Diego. Indy could be without reigning defensive player of the year Bob Sanders who has a knee injury. Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (49): Over is 4-0 in Colts’ last four road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1)
Why Packers cover: Have won six of 10 meetings in New Orleans and 14 of 20 overall. Are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 road games. Have the league’s second best pass defense, allowing only 176.3 yards per game.
Why Saints cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Have the NFL’s best passing attack. Packers have lost two straight on the road and could be without second leading receiver Donald Driver.
Total (51½): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
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