NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 13
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Tennessee at Detroit (+11)
Why Titans cover: Are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games. Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Lions have league’s worst run defense. Detroit has lost last four Thanksgiving games.
Why Lions cover: The Titans’ once potent rushing attack is sputtering, averaging 59.7 yards and 2.5 per carry over the last three games. LenDale White is disgruntled and they are coming off their first loss of the season. Rush defense has given up 332 yards and four TDs in last two weeks.
Total (44.5): Under is 6-1 in Titans’ last seven road games.
Seattle at Dallas (-12.5)
Why Seahawks cover: Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Julius Jones will face the team that cut him after last season.
Why Cowboys cover: Tony Romo appears to be completely over his finger injury. Finally got Terrell Owens (213 yards, TD) involved in the offense last week. Seattle has NFL’s second worst pass defense. Romo is 2-0 on Thanksgiving.
Total (46.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Arizona at Philadelphia (-3)
Why Cardinals cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Donovan McNabb is struggling and has a tentative hold on the Eagles’ starting QB job. Brian Westbrook, who normally skips practice to let his injuries heal, will only have three days to rest his sore ankle and ribs. Kurt Warner is the NFC’s top-rated quarterback.
Why Eagles cover: Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Cardinals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings. Arizona’s run game is only averaging 48.3 yards per game over the last three weeks.
Total (46.5): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
San Francisco at Buffalo (-6.5)
Why 49ers cover: Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on turf. Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Shaun Hill has completed 68.4 percent of his passes with five TDs and one interception since becoming the starting QB.
Why Bills cover: Have won two of last three matchups. Trent Edwards gets to face the league’s 29th-ranked pass defense. 49ers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games.
Total (42.5): Over is 7-1-1 in Bills’ last nine home games and 4-0 in 49ers’ last four games overall.
Baltimore at Cincinnati (+7)
Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 meetings. Ravens are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Cincinnati. Should have no problem shutting down Bengals’ poor rushing attack.
Why Bengals cover: Have won three of last four meetings and three straight against Baltimore at home. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Held the Ravens to 17 points in their first meeting this season, a 7-point loss.
Total (36.5): Over is 4-1-1 in Ravens’ last six road games and 5-0-1 in their last six games overall.
Indianapolis at Cleveland (+4.5)
Why Colts cover: Have won six of last seven meetings. With Brady Quinn out for the season, Cleveland will turn to Derek Anderson (66.0 QB rating) to lead team. Joseph Addai has been great the last two weeks (254 combined yards) and looks to be fully recovered from his hamstring injury.
Why Browns cover: Are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games. Jamal Lewis has rushed for 253 yards (4.4 average) and two TDs in three games against Indianapolis.
Total (45): Over is 4-1 in Colts’ last five road games.
Carolina at Green Bay (-3)
Why Panthers cover: Underdog is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Green Bay gave up 51 points to the Saints on Monday. Julius Peppers has six sacks in his last five games and could dominate a Packers’ line that has trouble with the pass rush. Packers’ secondary is banged up with multiple players dealing with injuries.
Why Packers cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Jonathan Stewart, who has battled foot injuries all season, was wearing a protective boot after last Sunday’s game.
Total (43): Over is 8-2 in Packers’ last 10 home games.
Denver at N.Y. Jets (-9)
Why Broncos cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Jets could be over-confident after knocking of the then undefeated Titans last week. Expected to get cornerback Champ Bailey and running back Selvin Young back for this game.
Why Jets cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Brett Favre has become more of a game manager and less of a gunslinger after meeting with coach Eric Mangini and has only two interceptions in his last four games after throwing 11 in his first seven. Denver has the league’s 25th-ranked pass defense.
Total (47.5): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Miami at St. Louis (NA)
Why Dolphins cover: Have won seven of the last eight meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. St. Louis has the league’s 30th-ranked rush defense.
Why Rams cover: Could get running back Steven Jackson and blind-side tackle Orlando pace back for this game. Marc Bulger threw for 295 yards and two TDs (one rushing) in his only game against the Dolphins.
Total (NA): Under is 4-1 in Dolphins’ last five games.
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-3.5)
Why Saints cover: Beat the Bucs 24-20 in Week 1 as 3-point favorites. Exceptional passing attack put up 51 points on Green Bay last week. Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Could get Reggie Bush back this week.
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Jeff Garcia's two best passer-rating games have come against New Orleans. Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Total (47.5): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Tampa Bay.
N.Y. Giants at Washington (+3.5)
Why Giants cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Get Brandon Jacobs back from knee injury. Jacobs has rushed for 246 yards in two games against Washington.
Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC East. Wide receiver Antwaan Randle El has thrown two touchdown passes in his career against the Giants. Clinton Portis, the league’s leading rusher, continues to rack up yards on the ground despite battling numerous injuries.
Total (41.5): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Washington.
Atlanta at San Diego (-5)
Why Falcons cover: Have won four straight against San Diego. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Michael Turner leads the league in TDs and goes against his former team for the first time.
Why Chargers cover: Are 6-2-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. Philip Rivers almost unbeatable at home, going 18-3 as a starter with 29 touchdowns and a 94.3 QB rating.
Total (49): Under is 6-1 in Chargers’ last seven games.
Pittsburgh at New England (-1)
Why Steelers cover: Lead the AFC in sacks. Underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Are protecting banged up QB Ben Roethlisberger better and giving him more time to throw. Mewelde Moore has averaged 90 rushing yards per game and 4.7 yards per carry in four starts in place of injured Willie Parker, who is questionable.
Why Patriots cover: Have won six of the last seven meetings. Matt Cassel has six TDs and thrown for 815 yards in the last two weeks. Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Total (40): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Kansas City at Oakland (-3)
Why Chiefs cover: Have won nine of last 11 meetings. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Oakland. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Road team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings. Tyler Thigpen leads the NFL (tied) with nine touchdowns in November.
Why Raiders cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven vs. AFC. Coming off huge 31-10 upset win over Denver as 9-point underdogs. Torched the Chiefs for 300 yards on the ground in Week 2.
Total (41.5): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland.
Chicago at Minnesota (-3.5)
Why Bears cover: Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Beat Vikings 48-41 in Week 7 as 3-point faves. Can control the ground game and the clock with standout rookie Matt Forte who needs 91 yards rushing for 1000 on the season.
Why Vikings cover: Adrian Peterson has 423 yards rushing and seven touchdowns in three games against the Bears. Home team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Kyle Orton is only averaging 136 yards passing in two games since returning from injury.
Total (42.5): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Jacksonville at Houston (-3)
Why Jaguars cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Are 7-4 on Monday nights. Underdog is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Why Texans cover: Are making their first Monday Night Football appearance. Jaguars are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings and 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings in Houston. Jacksonville is out of playoff contention and playing sloppy football as a result.
Total (48): Over is 9-2-2 in Jaguars’ last 13 road games, 5-1 in Texans’ last six home games and 13-3 in Texans’ last 16 games overall.