NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 14 betting notes
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10)
Why Raiders cover: Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Philip Rivers struggles at Oakland. In two career starts there, he has no touchdowns, two interceptions and hasn’t topped more than 156 yards in either game. Antonio Gates has only 65 yards receiving in his last three games with no TDs.
Why Chargers cover: Have won 10 straight meetings. Favorite is 9-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Raiders are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in San Diego. Trying to keep slim playoff hopes alive. LaDainian Tomlinson owns the Raiders, rushing for 600 yards and 10 TDs in their last five meetings.
Total (43): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 7-1 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Chicago Bears (-6.5)
Why Jaguars cover: Have won two of last three meetings. David Garrard is 7-1 versus the NFC for his career. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Why Bears cover: Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Jacksonville is without starting DB Rashean Mathis who has a sprained MCL in his knee. The Jags have been careless with the football committing nine turnovers in their last three games, all losses. The Bears lead the league with 26 takeaways.
Total (40):Over is 12-4-2 in Jaguars’ last 18 road games.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+9.5)
Why Vikings cover: Are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Have won 12 of last 13 meetings. Adrian Peterson should have a field day against the league’s worst run defense. Lions are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.
Why Lions cover: Minnesota suffered a huge loss on the interior defensive line when standout defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams were suspended for the rest of the season for violating the NFL’s steroid policy. Lions’ running back Kevin Smith could have a big game. Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. NFC North. Daunte Culpepper will be inspired to play against the team that drafted him.
Total (NA): Over is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Detroit.
Houston Texans at Green Bay Packers (-6)
Why Texans cover: Get starting QB Matt Schaub back from injury. Steve Slaton (182 combined yards, two TDs) is coming off his best game as a pro and gets to face the Packers’ 27th ranked rush defense. Stud receiver Andre Johnson could dominate a decimated Green Bay secondary.
Why Packers cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Have a tendency to thrive during the winter months, especially against warm weather teams like Houston. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has a 100.6 passer rating at home.
Total (47): Over is 7-1 in Texans’ last eight road games and 9-2 in Packers’ last 11 home games.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-13.5)
Why Bengals cover: Colts are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Indy will be without linebacker Gary Brackett (99 tackles) who was injured last Sunday. Banged up Indianapolis defense might not be able to carry inconsistent offense anymore.
Why Colts cover: Have won last five meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Bengals are only averaging 11 points per game over their last seven.
Total (42½): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Why Falcons cover: Are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New Orleans. Are still in contention for the NFC South title. Saints have lost RB Deuce McAllister, DT Charles Grant and DE Will Smith for the remainder of the season for violating the league’s steroid policy.
Why Saints cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. Despite .500 record, New Orleans has only one home loss this season.
Total (51½): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in New Orleans.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-9)
Why Eagles cover: Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings. In his last five games against New York, Donovan McNabb has thrown for 1105 yards with eight TDs (one rushing) and only one interception. Giants dealing with Plaxico Burress mess, questions still surround Antonio Pierce’s involvement.
Why Giants cover: Have won six of last eight meetings. Can clinch the NFC East with a win. Eagles are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (44): Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New York.
Cleveland Browns at Tennessee Titans (-13.5)
Why Browns cover: Have won last three meetings. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Defense forced four Colts turnovers last week, holding them to 10 points.
Why Titans cover: Are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games. With injuries to Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, Ken Dorsey (career 61.6 QB rating) will start at QB for the Browns against one of the league’s best defenses. Have had plenty of time to prepare and rest after playing on Thanksgiving last week.
Total (37½): Over is 4-1 in Titans’ last five home games.
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills (-1)
Why Dolphins cover: Joey Porter was a menace in their last meeting, chalking up four tackles, two sacks and two forced fumbles. Buffalo could be without starting QB Trent Edwards who has a strained groin. J.P. Losman (10-19 as a starter) will play if Edwards can’t. Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
Why Bills cover: Have won seven of the last nine meetings. Favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine meetings. Dolphins are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Buffalo. Even though this road game for both teams, Toronto has a strong Buffalo fan base that could make it like a home game for the Bills.
Total (42): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-9.5)
Why Chiefs cover: Are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 road games. Larry Johnson has been explosive since returning from suspension averaging 4.8 yards per carry for 240 yards and a score. Johnson torched Denver for 198 yards rushing and two TDs in Week 4. Tony Gonzalez has really gelled with Tyler Thigpen, posting 33 catches for 375 yards and three TDs in the last four games.
Why Broncos cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Home team is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Should get Champ Bailey back from injury. Peyton Hillis has sparked the Broncos’ running games with 247 yards (five yards per carry) and four TDs in the last three weeks. Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Denver.
Total (48): Over is 11-3 in the last 14 meetings.
New York Jets at San Francisco 49ers (+4)
Why Jets cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games and 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games. Have won four straight away from New York. Brett Favre, who is 7-0 against the 49ers, should exploit San Francisco’s 27th- ranked pass defense.
Why 49ers cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Shaun Hill is 4-2 as the Niners’ starting QB. The Jets are 0-2 on the West Coast this season.
Total (44½): Over is 5-0-1 in Jets’ last six games and 4-0 in 49ers’ last four home games.
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (+4.5)
Why Patriots cover: Have won 14 straight games against the NFC. Seahawks are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six home games. The Seahawks have had a hard time protecting QB Matt Hasselbeck who has 57.9 passer rating and six interceptions in three games since returning from injury.
Why Seahawks cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on field turf. Matt Cassel has committed five turnovers alone in his last two games.
Total (43): Under is 5-0 in Seahawks’ last five games.
St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Cardinals (-13.5)
Why Rams cover: Cardinals allowed 48 points to Philly last week. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Why Cardinals cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Rams are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings. St. Louis’ 22nd-ranked pass defense will have a hard time stopping Kurt Warner and company. Rookie Tim Hightower had his best game as a pro in Week 8 against the Rams, rushing for a career high 109 yards and a score.
Total (48½): Over is 7-0 in Cardinals last seven home games.
Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Why Cowboys cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Get Pacman Jones back from suspension. Steelers are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
Why Steelers cover: Made a statement with 33-10 road victory over New England last week. Marion Barber will play with a dislocated toe that should hinder his explosiveness. League sack leader DeMarcus Ware will play with a hyper-extended knee.
Total (41½): Over is 11-5 in Steelers’ last 16 games.
Washington Redskins at Baltimore Ravens (-5)
Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games. NFC’s 3rd –ranked pass defense could make it hard for rookie Joe Flacco who only averages 189.6 passing yards per game.
Why Ravens cover: Have won two of three meetings. Are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. Clinton Portis has missed parts of the last few games as he continues to deal with multiple injuries. Baltimore’s 3rd-ranked rush defense could stifle the banged up running back. Redskins are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Total (36): Under is 7-0-1 in Redskins’ last eight games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Cadillac Williams continues to make his way back from a serious knee injury and is expected to become more involved in the offense. Picked off Jake Delhomme three times in Week 6 victory. Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Why Panthers cover: Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Carolina. NFL’s 6th-ranked rush offense could flourish against Tampa Bay who will be without run stopper Jovan Haye who has a knee injury. Delhomme is 7-2 for his career against the Bucs.
Total (38½): Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Carolina.