NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 15
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won three straight meetings outscoring Atlanta 92-19. Are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in Atlanta. Can clinch a playoff birth with win. Held Matt Ryan to 158 yards and two interceptions with no TDs Week 2.
Why Falcons cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Michael Turner could burn a Bucs’ defense that gave up almost 300 yards on the ground last week. This season the home team has won all 10 NFC South division games.
Total (44½): Over is 9-2 in Buccaneers’ last 11 road games and 8-2 in Falcons’ last 10 home games.
Washington Redskins at Cincinnati Bengals (+6½)
Why Redskins cover: Clinton Portis will be motivated to prove his comments about not playing enough last week were warranted. Cincinnati has been outscored 109–29 since its Week 10 bye. Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
Why Bengals cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Washington’s offensive line suffered a huge loss last week losing left tackle Chris Samuels for the season. Right tackle Jon Jansen is also hurting with a knee injury. Redskins are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games.
Total (36): Under is 8-0-1 in Redskins’ last nine games.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (+3)
Why Titans cover: Have won seven straight meetings. Are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Can clinch home field throughout the playoffs with a win and a Steelers’ loss. Rushing tandem of LenDale White and Chris Johnson could have another big day against the Texans’ 24th ranked rush defense.
Why Texans cover: Steve Slaton rushed for 116 yards (6.4 average) and a TD Week 3 against Tennessee. Underdog is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Matt Schaub looked great in his return from injury last week throwing for 414 yards and two TDs.
Total (44): Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Houston.
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (-17)
Why Lions cover: Are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games. Trying to avoid going winless and are running out of opportunities. Joseph Addai is unlikely to be available for this meeting.
Why Colts cover: Have won four of last six meetings. Have only allowed four passing TDs this season. Dan Orlovsky is likely to start at QB for the injured Daunte Culpepper. Detroit is giving up 31.8 points per game to opponents this season.
Total (44½): Over is 8-2 in Lions’ last 10 road games.
Green Bay Packers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)
Why Packers cover: Are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 road games. Trying to keep their playoff hopes alive. Jacksonville is averaging just over 13 points per game in its last four, all losses. Jaguars are 0-6 ATS in their last six home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Visiting team has won every meeting.
Why Jaguars cover: With Fred Taylor out for the season, Maurice Jones-Drew will get to showcase as the every-down back and could batter the Packers’ 27th ranked rush defense. Green Bay was pounded for 549 total yards by the Texans last week.
Total (44½): Under is 5-2-1 in Jaguars last eight games.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+5)
Why Chargers cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Trying to keep slim playoff hopes alive. Chiefs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Chiefs have the NFL’s worst defense and on offense are only averaging 17.9 points per contest.
Why Chiefs cover: Are tied for eighth in the league with 24 takeaways. Picked off Philip Rivers twice in 1-point loss Week 10 as 14.5-point underdogs. Chargers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Kansas City. Underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Larry Johnson has rushed for 525 yards and scored four TDs in his last five games against San Diego.
Total (46): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-6½)
Why 49ers cover: Have won five of last six meetings. After knocking off the AFC East-leading Jets last week, quarterback Shaun Hill is now 5-2 as a starter for his career and making a strong case to keep the job in 2009. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Dolphins are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Why Dolphins cover: Still have a chance to clinch the AFC East title. Own the league’s best turnover ratio at plus-12. Niners are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games. San Francisco could be without Frank Gore who has an ankle injury.
Total (41½): Under is 6-1 in Dolphins’ last seven games.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-7)
Why Bills cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Brett Favre hasn’t thrown a TD pass in his last two games. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Jets cover: Are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East. J.P. Losman, who holds the ball to long and is prone to getting sacked, could start at QB for the Bills again in place of injured Trent Edwards. Buffalo has fallen into the basement in the AFC East after a 5-1 start.
Total (41): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+3)
Why Seahawks cover: Have won seven straight meetings. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Are 7-2 ATS in their last nine vs. NFC West. Have been keeping games close against tough playoff contenders in recent weeks.
Why Rams cover: Seahawks could be without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck who might shut it down for the season because of a back injury. Could move the ball through the air against the NFL’s worst pass defense.
Total (43): Under is 5-2 in Rams’ last seven games and 5-1 in Seahawks’ last six games.
Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Why Vikings cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Can clinch the NFC North title with a win and a Chicago loss. Will have run stoppers Kevin and Pat Williams available to shut down Arizona’s league-worst rushing attack.
Why Cardinals cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. QB Tarvaris Jackson who was benched early in the season will start for Minnesota in place of injured Gus Frerotte. Can improve on their playoff position with a win.
Total (47½): Over is 7-1 in Cardinals’ last eight home games and 5-2 in Vikings’ last seven games overall.
New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders (+7)
Why Patriots cover: Stayed on the West Coast to avoid battling the time change that comes with crossing time zones. Trying to keep playoffs hopes alive. Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. JaMarcus Russell is dealing with a sprained ankle that will limit his mobility.
Why Raiders cover: Have won three of last four regular-season meetings. Patriots are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games. Matt Cassel is dealing with the death of his father. New England’s defense is extremely beat up with many starters either out or playing injured.
Total (40): Under is 4-0 in Raiders’ last four home games, 5-0-1 in their last six games overall and 9-4-2 in Patriots’ last 15 vs. AFC.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Why Steelers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Ben Roethlisberger is 2-0 with 400 yards passing and six touchdowns in his last two games against Baltimore. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Ravens cover: Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Baltimore. Pass rush could complicate things for Pittsburgh who has allowed 41 sacks this season.
Total (34): League’s top two defenses face off.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers (-7½)
Why Broncos cover: Have won both previous meetings. Have won three straight on the road. Own league’s second best offense. Can clinch the AFC West with a win.
Why Panthers cover: Are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. NFL’s 3rd best rushing attack should have no problem running over Denver’s 26th ranked rush defense. Broncos lost another running back for the season last week when Peyton Hillis went down with a hamstring injury.
Total (47): Over is 4-1-1 in Broncos’ last six road games and 4-0 in Panthers’ last four games overall.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Why Giants cover: Have won last two meetings. Are 6-2-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Cowboy’s could be without Marion Barber again who is battling a dislocated toe. Will want to bounce back from disappointing loss last week and can clinch a first-round bye.
Why Cowboys cover: Fighting for their playoff lives. Giants’ bruising running back Brandon Jacobs is doubtful for this game. Favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. Tony Romo has something to prove this week after throwing away last week’s game in the final quarter.
Total (44): Over is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
Why Browns cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. Beat the Giants and Bills in Monday night games this season. Are trying to incorporate stellar kick-returner Joshua Cribbs into the offense by employing the “Wildcat” offense.
Why Eagles cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five Monday games. Fighting for a wild-card spot. Browns are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games. Cleveland hasn’t scored a TD in three straight games and is averaging only seven points per game during that span. Brian Westbrook appears to be healthy after struggling with injuries for most of the season.
Total (38): Under is 13-6 in Browns’ last 19 games and 6-2 in Eagles’ last eight home games.