NFL Preseason Odds: Full Saturday Primer
By Sean Murphy
New York Jets at New York Giants (+2.5, 35)
Jets head coach Rex Ryan was adamant this week that he wants to see more out of his running game against the Giants.
"I'd like to see us be able to establish our run game a little more," Ryan said. "Obviously, this will be a huge test for us going against the Giants defense."
Gang Green will welcome RB Shonn Green and RG Brandon Moore back to the field this week. Both will likely be used sparingly, but the rest of the Jets starters are expected to work into the third quarter after playing the entire first half last week.
Tom Coughlin has indicated that his starters will play most of the first half on Saturday. He’s giving them a bit of a break given that it’s a short week after dismantling the Bears this past Monday night.
Don’t be surprised if both teams hold a little back given they’ll face each other for real on Christmas Eve.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-2.5 36)
The Jaguars will be focused on sharpening their offense after a sloppy performance, albeit a winning one, against the Falcons last week.
"I guess I look at that as our team is tuning up, it's not just David Garrard. It's not any one player,” head coach Jack Del Rio said, “I think as a football team we need to begin to play as a team and play better football and have it all come together for us and with an eye on the opener, yes, no question. But I think just like last week we saw some encouraging signs. I think this week we need to see more of them throughout our football team in all three phases."
Jacksonville’s first unit is expected to see action into the third quarter this week. Blaine Gabbert will once again take the majority of the snaps with the second-team offense after starter David Garrard exits.
Bills head coach Chan Gailey has been fairly tight-lipped when it comes to playing time here in the preseason. He has stated that Fred Jackson will be the team’s starter at running back, and has also hinted that his first-unit will see more action than they have in the last two weeks, but that’s it.
Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tyler Thigpen will once again share duties under center after a lackluster effort in Denver last Saturday.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 36)
Off to an 0-2 start, Atlanta will give its starters their most extensive action of the preseason on Saturday in Pittsburgh.
“In terms of the amount of snaps that they are going to play, I don’t know that we’ve sat down and decided,” head coach Mike Smith said. “But we want to keep those (starting) units in there and get them as many exposures as possible.”
After not game-planning for either of their first two matchups, the Falcons will be hitting the film room for this week’s game.
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin isn’t downplaying the importance of the third preseason game, particularly for guys fighting for roster spots. His starters are expected to play into the third quarter, but Tomlin has yet to decide on how his QB rotation will shake down after Ben Roethlisberger and Byron Leftwich. Charlie Batch and Dennis Dixon both remain on the roster.
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 36.5)
The Dolphins offense is off to a fast start, scoring 48 points in back-to-back wins over the Falcons and Panthers.
That doesn’t mean they’ll be easing off the gas on Saturday, however. Miami starters are likely to play into the third quarter against the Bucs. Starting QB Chad Henne threw 24 passes last week, and should see another heavy workload this week.
The Bucs were embarrassed by the Patriots on their own home turf last week, but they remain confident heading into Saturday’s showdown with the Dolphins.
Raheem Morris hasn’t officially stated how long his starters will play, but WR Mike Williams has hinted that they’ll see at least a half of action.
"We get to play more plays this week, at least the whole first half,'' Williams said. “The last game, we knew we were on limited reps. It was hard getting into a rhythm, knowing you only had 12 or 13 plays.''
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 35.5)
The Texans have been one of the league’s most impressive teams so far this preseason. Their offense lit up Reliant Stadium last Saturday, and they’ll get a chance to do the same in San Francisco this week, as Matt Schaub and the rest of their starters are likely to play into the third quarter.
That leaves the bulk of the second half snaps to backup QB Matt Leinart.
49ers first year head coach Jim Harbaugh isn’t a believer in using the third preseason game as a dress rehearsal for the regular season.
He’ll use his starters sparingly in the first quarter, instead electing to give his backups plenty of time to hone their skills.
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions (+4, 44.5)
New England’s starters will see at least a half of action on Saturday. Even after two blowout wins, don’t count on Bellichick to call off the dogs against the Lions.
Lions WR Calvin Johnson returned to practice on Thursday, but remains a game-time decision for Saturday’s game. RB Jahvid Best has been officially ruled out.
If you consider head coach Jim Schwarz’s track record, the rest of the Lions starting unit will likely play into the third quarter. The focus will be on improving defensively after a poor showing in Cleveland last week.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-3, 37)
Playing on a short week, and being on the road for a second consecutive game, Bears head coach Lovie Smith will take a cautious approach when it comes to his starters playing time on Saturday. If the first-unit plays into the second half, it will come as a surprise.
With that being said, there’s obviously plenty of work to be done after back-to-back less than impressive performances against the Bills and Giants. If there’s no improvement, there will be plenty of restless fans in the seats at Soldier Field next week.
Titans QB Matt Hasselbeck took a big hit against the Rams last week, but is expected to start Saturday’s game. He and Jake Locker will handle at least the first three quarters against the Bears, with Hasselbeck taking all of the snaps with the first-team offense.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 37)
The Cowboys will begin the road portion of their preseason schedule in Minnesota on Saturday. We can expect to see plenty from the starters, likely playing into the third quarter.
Head coach Jason Garrett puts a lot of stock in preseason results, so he was understandably upset with last week’s sloppy effort against the Chargers.
"We live in reality," Garrett said. "There were some things that happened that exposed us. There were a number of mental mistakes. We need to play better. There were some good things that happened, but there were a lot of things that need to be addressed."
There’s a heated battle for the number two quarterback spot ongoing in Minnesota. Christian Ponder and Joe Webb are competing, and should see the bulk of the action under center again on Saturday.
Leslie Frazier has been one the conservative side when it comes to starters playing time this preseason. He has indicated that his first-team offenses and defenses will play at least the first quarter on Saturday.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-4.5, 37.5)
Pete Carroll says there’s no QB controversy in Seattle.
He continues to back up the play of Tarvaris Jackson, who once again struggled last week, completing 11-of-21 passes for 75 yards. Jackson, along with the rest of the Seahawks starters, will once again play the majority of the first half, and possibly even into the third quarter on Saturday.
The big news out of Broncos camp this week was that Tim Tebow had been dropped to third on the QB depth chart behind Kyle Orton and Brady Quinn.
With that being said, John Fox stated this week that Tebow would see more playing time in at least one of the Broncos final two preseason games.
"Kyle has had 19 passes, Brady's had 30 and Tim's had nine," Fox said. "So in fairness to Tim, we need to get that total up whether that's this week or next week."
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 40.5)
Philip Rivers and the rest of the Chargers starters played into the second quarter last week, and should see more extensive action here in Week 3.
Norv Turner has traditionally used his first-unit into the third quarter in the third preseason game, and while he hasn’t made it official this week, that remains the expectation.
Billy Volek will spend the majority of the second half under center, with Scott Tolzien possibly getting only a series in mop-up duty.
The Cardinals continue to work on getting Kevin Kolb acclimated with the offense, so no surprise that he’s expected to play the entire first half and a series or two in the third quarter on Saturday.
Playing for only the third time in 17 days, the Cardinals can afford to give their starters a fairly heavy workload.
Arizona signed QB Brodie Croyle this week, waiving former BYU standout Max Hall. That still leaves four quarterbacks on the roster, with Richard Bartel and John Skelton rounding out the quartet.
Lions And Patriots Headline Saturday NFL Betting
By: Matty Simo
The lone Week 3 NFL preseason matchup between unbeaten teams will take place at Ford Field on Saturday night when the Detroit Lions host the New England Patriots. Both teams have been impressive in winning their first two games, but just one of them will get an opportunity to enter next week’s preseason finale without a loss at 3-0.
Detroit and New England are also the only two teams to have scored 30 or more points in each of their first two games with the ‘over’ cashing both times. Game time is scheduled for 5:00 p.m. (PT) with national television coverage provided by CBS.
New England is currently laying four points on the Don Best odds screen with Saturday's total 44½, the highest total of the day.
Week 3 of the preseason is often viewed as the last dress rehearsal for starters prior to the regular season, but the NFL lockout shortened training camps and has left many to wonder whether or not teams will take their finales more seriously this year. While that decision remains to be seen, this week’s games are likely to generate the most betting action so far.
Much like last year during the regular season, the Patriots have looked better than any team following a dominant 31-14 road victory at Tampa Bay in Week 2 as 1 ½-point road underdogs. New England QB Tom Brady took his first snaps of the preseason against the Buccaneers and completed 11 of 19 passes for 118 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.
The reigning NFL MVP also got a lot of help from his running game, which backed him up with 200 yards on 36 carries.
Meanwhile, the Lions also ran the ball hard in a 30-28 win over Cleveland last week, cashing as 2 ½-point road underdogs. They totaled 176 rushing yards on 45 carries, and backup QB Drew Stanton completed 6 of 8 passes for 80 yards with two touchdowns in relief of starter Matthew Stafford. Stanton helped rally Detroit back from a 21-13 halftime deficit against the Browns.
Here’s a breakdown of Saturday’s other games:
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-2½, 36), 4:00 p.m. (PT)
The Bills are looking for their first preseason win in their third game but will be playing at home for the first time after visiting Chicago and Denver. The Jaguars are coming off a 15-13 win over Atlanta and like Buffalo 0-2 against the spread in their first two games.
New York Jets at New York Giants (+2½, 35), 4:00 p.m. (PT)
Both New York teams are 1-1 following easy wins last week. Neither team beat the spread in its first game but each covered easily last week, with the Jets knocking off Cincinnati 27-7 and the Giants routing Chicago 41-13.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½, 36), 4:30 p.m. (PT)
The Falcons managed to cover last week despite losing at Jacksonville, but they still have yet to register a victory in the preseason after landing the top seed in the NFC a year ago. The Steelers are 1-1 and made Michael Vick look like a rookie last week, forcing the Eagles QB into three first-half interceptions en route to a 24-14 victory.
Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4, 36), 4:30 p.m. (PT)
The Dolphins are one of five 2-0 teams remaining and have also gone 2-0 ATS. Miami’s offense was a concern heading into the preseason, but QB Chad Henne has looked solid so far and new RB Reggie Bush showed glimpses of what he can do in a 20-10 win over Carolina last week. The Bucs were drilled at home by New England last week after blanking Kansas City 25-0 on the road in their preseason opener.
Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (+3, 35½), 5:00 p.m. (PT)
The Texans are another one of the five unbeaten left at 2-0, going 2-0 ATS as well. Their new-look defense has shown the ability to close games out too even if it is the preseason. The 49ers are trying to put last week’s fiasco between fans at their 17-3 win over Oakland behind them and focus on polishing up their fundamentals in their last two games under first-year head coach Jim Harbaugh.
Chicago Bears at Tennessee Titans (-3, 37), 5:00 p.m. (PT)
Chicago’s offense under Mike Martz has left a lot to be desired, failing to score more than 13 points in the first two games. Bears QB Jay Cutler was only sacked once last week in a 41-13 loss to the Giants, maybe the only positive to take away from that game. The Titans have not been much better offensively, but their defense has been good as they have covered each of their first two games with the ‘under’ cashing both times.
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings (+1, 37), 5:00 p.m. (PT)
The Cowboys looked bad in a 20-7 home loss to San Diego last week, with QB Tony Romo showing he still has not overcome throwing dumb interceptions. Like the Bills, the Vikings will be playing their first home game after splitting road contests at Seattle and Tennessee.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-4½, 37½), 6:00 p.m. (PT)
The Seahawks still have a bit of a quarterback controversy, as neither Tavaris Jackson nor Charlie Whitehurst has separated himself from the other in the preseason. The Broncos know who their starting signal caller will be in Kyle Orton, but the Tim Tebow saga continues with the former Heisman Trophy winner still trying to battle for the backup job.
San Diego Chargers at Arizona Cardinals (+3, 40½), 7:00 p.m. (PT)
Kevin Kolb’s first two games with the Cardinals have resulted in two ‘overs’ as head coach Ken Whisenhunt has concentrated on getting the offense rolling behind a new quarterback. Arizona’s defense has been much more of a concern, giving up an average of 23 points in the first two games. The most encouraging news in San Diego revolves around RB Ryan Mathews, who carried the ball seven times for 35 yards in a 20-7 victory at Dallas and scored on a 15-yard touchdown run in the second quarter.
Preseason Tech Trends - Week 3
By Bruce Marshall
Following are some NFL preseason tech trends and angles for this weekend's games. Keep an eye on possible weather situations in a few locales as Hurricane Irene prepares to move north along the eastern seaboard...
Jacksonville at Buffalo (Saturday)...After "overs" for Chan Gailey on all four preseason games LY, Bills "under" first two this summer. Note that Jags have won and covered their third preseason game each of the past four years for HC Jack Del Rio. Jags were also 6-0-1 vs. mark their last 7 preseason on the road prior to losing opener two weeks ago at New England.
Atlanta at Pittsburgh (Saturday)...Mike Tomlin 5-0 SU and vs. line at home in preseason since 2009. Tomlin also "under" 15-4 in exhibitions since assuming command of Steelers in 2007. Falcs also "under" 9-5 in preseason for Mike Smith since 2008, and are 7-1 vs. number last 8 as exhibition dog.
Miami at Tampa Bay (Saturday)...Tony Sparano was a good preseason coach his first two years with Miami (6-1-1 vs. line) before faltering to 1-3 last season; he's back to form this season, however, winning and covering first two. Sparano also "under" 10-4 in preseason since 2008. The annual summer clash vs. Bucs has gone "under" each of the past three years as well. TB 3-1 vs. line in preseason after a SU loss for Raheem Morris since 2009.
New England at Detroit (Saturday)...Both 2-0 SU and vs. line this preseason, and both also "over" first two in summer of 2011. Pats also "over" 7-1 last 8 in preseason. Note that Belichick hasn't been placing extra emphasis on game three exhibition results lately, failing to cover that game each of the last three years. Lions 11-3 vs. spread in preseason since 2008 and have covered 7 of last 8 in exhibition play for Jim Schwartz. Lions also "over" their last five in summer action.
Chicago at Tennessee (Saturday)...Titans a surprising 2-0 in preseason for new HC Mike Munchak after indifferent summer form the past few years for Jeff Fisher. Tennessee also "under" first two this August. Lovie Smith now 1-5 vs. line in exhibition play since last season after Monday blowout loss at Giants. Bears also 2-5 vs. spread last 7 as exhibition visitor.
Dallas at Minnesota (Saturday)...Note that Dallas hasn't covered its next-to-last preseason game the past four years, and Jason Garrett 0-2 vs. spread this summer. Vikes, meanwhile, have covered preseason game three each of the past three years, also "under" 9-3 last 12 in exhibitions.
Houston at San Francisco (Saturday)...SF's new HC Jim Harbaugh "under" first two in this year's preseason slate. Houston's Gary Kubiak 3-1 vs. line in preseason game three since 2007 and now "over" 14-4 in summer since 2007.
Seattle at Denver (Saturday)...John Fox was a notorious preseason spread underachiever at Carolina (4-12 vs. line from 2007-10), but has covered his first two this August with the Broncos. Fox also managed to cover two of last three in third games of preseason with Panthers. Broncos "over" 7-2 last nine exhibitions as well. Seattle had covered 10 straight in preseason prior to Pete Carroll's arrival last year; Seahawks 2-4 SU and vs. spread in exhibition play since.
San Diego at Arizona (Saturday)...Note that Norv is 0-4 vs. line in third preseason game since taking over Bolts in 2007. Meanwhile, Ken Whisenhunt is 3-1 SU and vs. line in third preseason game since taking over Cards in 2007.
NFL Preseason Week 3 Gambling News and Notes
San Francisco – Head coach Jim Harbaugh is reportedly satisfied with his first string and wants to see whether or not his back-ups can compete against better players. As a result, the 49ers are expected to play second and third string players as early as the third series of the game. Houston opened as a 2-point favorite but has been steamed to as high as -5.
Denver – According to the Denver Post, Denver’s starters will play into the third quarter tonight against Seattle. They are not expected to see any action during Week 4’s game at Arizona. "You always want to get everybody out healthy, you want to get done what you need to get done," cornerback Champ Bailey said. "Any time you step out there you want to win, win plays and win the game. That's it. And don't get anyone hurt."
New Orleans – Head coach Sean Payton sums up the game plan for Sunday’s game at Oakland. Q: What's the plan with the Raiders this weekend? Are you planning to let the starters play three quarters? A: "What we talked about last night is we're going to play them through the first half and then we'll get a pitch count at halftime as far as how much they've played. Generally one side of the ball or the other gets more snaps. We'll probably look to come out in the third quarter with at least one side of the ball and go from there, so at least through the first half and then some substitutions. The primary starters will play the first half and then we'll see where we are at halftime to see what we're going to do in the third quarter."
Dallas – Head coach Jason Garrett wants to see more out of the offense during tonight’s game at Minnesota. “I don’t have a specific play number for anybody, but play more, play the bulk of the first half if not into the third quarter,” Garrett said. “The game will dictate that. If they go three and out, three and out, three and out, three and out, they’re going to play more than those series because we need to get more plays, we need to drive the ball a little bit. “
Buffalo – The Bills are a banged up football team. Head coach Chan Gailey said the starters will play “past the first half”. "These reps are big for all of the young players, and they're big for our team," he said. "We're going to play the longest our starters have played, and will play, before we get to the first ball game."