Best Over/Under Bets of NFL Preseason Week 2
By COVERS.COM
If you’re tackling totals this NFL preseason this week, take a look at which teams lean towards the over or the under during Week 2 of the exhibition schedule.
Records as of 1995.
Best NFL preseason Week 2 over bets
Green Bay Packers (12-5 SU, 13-4 O/U in Week 2)
The Pack finished just 1-3 O/U in the 2012 preseason, but their lone 'over' result was Week 2. Green Bay was shutout 17-0 by the Arizona Cardinals in their disappointing preseason opener a week ago. Needless to say, the Pack had issues offensively, especially running the ball. QB Aaron Rodgers was effective in his one series, an 11-play, 86 yard drive. But it ended in futility after failing to punch the ball in the end zone on fourth-and-goal. The Packers have played over the total in seven-straight Week 2 preseason games. They will travel to St. Louis to face the Rams Saturday. The total is currently 40.5.
Oakland Raiders (5-11 SU, 11-5 O/U in Week 2)
The Raiders are already 1-0 O/U after a 19-17 victory (total of 35.5) over the Dallas Cowboys in their preseason opener. Matt Flynn is on track to be the starting QB to begin the season, but Terrelle Pryor looked good against the Cowboys and gives the offense some different options when he is under center. The Raiders are in New Orleans to battle the Saints Friday. The total is currently 40. 5.
*The Raiders did not have a game in Week 2 in the 1999 preseason.
Best NFL preseason Week 2 under bets
Miami Dolphins (10-7 SU, 6-11 O/U in Week 2)
After a 24-20 loss in the Hall of Fame Game, a result that went 'over' the total, the Dolphins kept the scoreline under the total with a 27-3 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 1. QB Ryan Tannehill looked good (5-for-9, 75 yards, one TD) but there is some concern as to why he didn't throw to new WR Mike Wallace - something they may look to remedy. Miami will face the Houston Texans in a Week 2 matchup Saturday. The total is 40.5.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-12 SU, 7-10 O/U in Week 2)
The Chiefs and New Orleans Saints played 'under' the 36.5-point total in Week 1 in a 17-13 Saints victory. The Chiefs offense looked promising going 80 yards on 14 plays in the opening drive. Alex Smith looked great completing 7-for-8 passes for 68 yards in his lone drive. The Chiefs host the San Francisco 49ers Friday. The total is currently listed at 40.
NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 2
Insiderangles.com
The first week of the 2013 preseason is in the books, and if you include the Hall of Fame Game two weeks ago, the underdogs are 11-6, 64.7 percent ATS thus far, continuing the Week 1/Halll of Fame week pattern of the previous 13 preseasons and again showing why bettors that refuse to bet on the preseason could be missing out on a gold mine, especially considering that the 11 covering underdogs all won straight up!
The anomaly thus far this preseason has been with totals, as the 'over' is 12-5 after the 'under' performed better in the early weeks the prior 13 years. Do not be surprised if the 'under' has a nice bounce-back week here in Week 2 though with novice bettors flocking to the 'overs' after the Week 1 success and the oddsmakers most likely padding the totals a tad in anticipation of this.
As we said last week, every week of preseason has its own characteristics, and while Week 2 has traditionally been underdog-friendly in general, it has also been a contrarian's dream as a nice profit could have been made over the years simply by playing on teams that lost straight up in Week 1 and against teams that won straight up in Week 1.
We will have more on that in a minute, but first let us take a look at the updated records of the four coaches that have had great preseason records that we recommended last week you should follow throughout the preseason. Right on cue, these coaches went 3-1 both straight up and ATS last week.
Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): The Redskins beat the Tennessee Titans as small underdogs in Week 1, bringing Shanahan to 50-23 straight up in preseason with the Denver Broncos and Redskins combined, and his teams are now 31-18-1, 63.3 percent ATS since 2000.
Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin was the only coach among the "Big Four" to lose in Week 1 as his Steelers lost to the New York Giants. That still leaves Tomlin at a sparkling 19-7 straight up since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, and we will have more on him the final week of preseason as he is 6-0 straight up in Week 4.
John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): Harbaugh and his Super Bowl Champion Ravens destroyed the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 44-16, making him 14-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens in 2008, including 13-4 straight up and 11-6, 64.7 percent ATS since 2009.
Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): The Lions could have used a nice start this preseason after a miserable regular season last year and they got one with a nine-point win over the New York Jets. Coach Schwartz is now 13-4 straight up and 12-5, 70.6 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009.
Moving on to Week 2, this could be the week with the most profit potential of all, and as stated earlier, an inordinately high percentage of Week 2 results since 2000 have been inversely correlated to Week 1.
For example, blindly playing all Week 2 teams ATS coming off of Week 1 straight up losses has gone 118-84-3, 58.4 percent ATS the last 13 years, and teams coming off Week 1 wins are 86-120-1 ATS for a 58.3 percent fade!
Some more specific derivatives of these overall trends follow below. Note that all stated Trends & Angles records both ATS and straight up are since the 2000 preseason.
Play on Week 2 underdogs coming off a straight up loss (67-27-2, 71.3% ATS)
No that is not a misprint, as teams that have lost straight up in Week 1 and are then underdogs in Week 2 have covered at better than a 71 percent clip over 94 decisions in 13 years, and yet people still refuse to bet on preseason! These exhibition games are all about motivation, and in Week 2, teams that lost their openers are usually motivated to put forth a better performance to at the very least gain some peace of mind. Remember that talent means nothing in these games, so this angle even works if the underdog off a loss is among the very worst teams in the league.
Play against Week 2 favorites coming off a straight up win (60-37-1, 61.9% ATS)
This is actually the exact opposite angle as our previous one. Teams that won in Week 1 often feel some sense of contentment getting a preseason win out of the way, and now the coaches can put a greater emphasis on evaluating personnel in Week 2, especially with the regular season dress rehearsal coming up in Week 3. Had the team lost Week 1, then most coaches would have had more of a balance between evaluating players and trying to get a win.
Play on any Week 2 team coming off a straight up loss against a team coming off of a straight up win (67-37-1, 64.4% ATS):
This angle combines the two motivations from our first two angles, except that it applies to all games and not only underdogs, so this is one of our few preseason trends that actually points to some favorites.
Week 2 coaches
Starting with the Big Four, Shanahan is 9-6 straight up in Week 2 with the Broncos and Redskins, Tomlin is 4-2, Harbaugh is 3-2 and Schwartz is 3-1.
Here are some other notable Week 2 marks.
Jeff Fisher (St. Louis Rams, 10-5): This is Fisher's combined record with the Rams and the Tennessee Titans, and he is 9-6 ATS in these games. Last year was Fisher's first with St. Louis and he beat the Kansas City Chiefs easily 31-17 in Week 2.
Mike Smith (Atlanta Falcons, 1-4): Taking this a step further, Smith is also 1-5 in Week 1 after losing last week and 1-4 in Week 4, but he is 4-1 in Week 3, indicating that the regular season dress rehearsal next week will be the only week he takes seriously.
Preseason Tidbits
By ASAWins.com
Around the NFL, every team approaches the preseason differently. Some teams are working in an entire new coaching staff with new philosophies. Some teams have established quarterbacks while others have a competition among 2-3 players. Some just want to keep players healthy and don't show much of their offensive or defensive game plans. Knowing some of recent trends can help you find favorable matchups and get you off to a quick start before the regular season even kicks off. Enjoy our 'tidbits' for the NFL exhibition season.
Arizona Cardinals are 1-7 ATS in their last eight preseason games. They are under a new coaching regime. New head coach Bruce Arians is breaking in a new offense with a new quarterback, Carson Palmer. Arians was 3-1 ATS in the preseason as a member of Indy's coaching staff last year.
Buffalo Bills are 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS in the last preseason games. Head Coach Doug Marrone is in his first season as an NFL head coach. He has an all new coaching staff with new offensive wrinkles. Expect the Bills to be more competitive as they break in a new offense with a heated battle between Kevin Kolb & EJ Manuel at quarterback.
Carolina Panthers are 1-10 SU & 3-8 ATS in the last 11 preseason road games. The Panthers haven't been strong on the road in preseason. They play at Philly on August 15 & at Baltimore on August 22.
Cincinnati Bengals are 1-6 ATS in the past seven preseason road games. Cincy will play its first preseason game on the road at Atlanta on August 8th and will be playing without top WR, AJ Green.
Denver Broncos are 1-5 ATS the past six preseason games as favorite. QB Manning won't see much action in the preseason, especially in the first couple of games. Expect a lot of uneven play from Brock Osweiler, Ryan Katz, and Zac Dysert splitting reps under center.
Detroit Lions are 9-2 SU & ATS the last 11 preseason games. Detroit has a proven backup QB in Shaun Hill and behind him Thaddeus Lewis has experience. This offense will stay strong the entire game with proven backup QB's. The Lions are also 7-3-1 OVER in the last 11 preseason games.
Green Bay Packers are 15-5 OVER the last 20 preseason games. Aaron Rodgers won't see a ton of plays, but there's a strong quarterback battle for the no. 2 spot between BJ Coleman and Graham Harrell. This offense has strong depth and we expect it to continue to put up points even with Rodgers on the bench.
Jacksonville Jaguars have played six straight preseason OVERs. Jacksonville has allowed 29.3 points per game over that stretch. New head coach Gus Bradley is a defensive specialist and will want to change that. The offense is still in rough shape with uncertainty at the QB position, so the Jags could be in for some low-scoring affairs in the preseason.
Kansas City Chiefs are 5-28-1 ATS in their last 34 preseason games. There is a new coaching staff but don't expect much of a change in their preseason woes. Head Coach Andy Reid never put a heavy emphasis on preseason in Philly as he went 9-13 ATS in his last 22 preseason games.
New England Patriots are 1-5 SU & 0-6 ATS their last six preseason games. New England hasn't put a lot of emphasis on preseason action under Bill Belichick. Tom Brady won't see many snaps and they'll opt to keep their top playmakers healthy. The Pats are also 45-27-1 OVER under Belichick in the preseason.
New York Giants UNDER is 8-2 their last 10 preseason games. The GMen have never been big on showing a lot of their starting offense in the preseason. Eli Manning won't see a ton of action and coaches will want to keep star WR's Cruz & Nicks healthy. Expect more low scoring games as they try to get their swagger back on defense as well.
New York Jets are 0-5 SU & ATS past 5 preseason games. Coaches are trying to determine if rookie QB Geno Smith is a better option than the embattled Mark Sanchez. Both Smith and Sanchez will see a good share of reps under center. And we don't expect stellar results from either.
Oakland Raiders are 2-8 SU & ATS past 10 preseason games. There isn't a ton of talent on this team and very little depth to speak of. QB Matt Flynn will try to hold off Terrelle Pryor and rookie Tyler Wilson. None of the three QB's are great and the receiving corps is very weak. It'll be tough to score and the Raiders' woes may continue this preseason.
Pittsburgh Steelers are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their past seven preseason games. Pittsburgh has also won 11 straight preseason home games since 2007.
St. Louis Rams are 11-3 SU & ATS past 14 preseason games. St. Louis is the buzz-team of the summer. A lot is expected from this up & coming team and the excitement could spill over into another solid preseason.
Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll is a strong 19-9-1 in preseason action (4-0 in 2012). He has a strong stable to QB's to work with as well. Tavaris Jackson and Brady Quinn compete to backup star sophomore Russell Wilson.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 9-2 ATS past 11 preseason road games. Tampa Bay plays at New England on August 16th and at Miami on August 26th. The Bucs apparently aren't sold on Josh Freeman as the starting QB of the future, so expect rookie Mike Glennon to get a long look under center.
Washington Redskins Head Coach Mike Shanahan is a career 44-34-2 ATS and 50-30 OVER in preseason games. Star QB Robert Griffin III is not expected to take any reps in the preseason.