NFL Preseason Betting News and Notes Week 3

NFL Preseason Week 3 Point Spreads – Key Players, Matchups To Watch
By: Mike Wilkening
Sportingnews.com

The third full week of the NFL preseason slate is regarded as the closest thing to regular-season play in the summer -- a series of dress rehearsals, if you will.

But are these games indicators of what to expect from clubs once the games of consequence begin?

That’s a matter for handicappers to sort out among themselves. While starters generally play more in the next-to-last preseason game than in other exhibition contests, the games are still warmups, and rosters are still at their bloated 90-player limits. Backups and end-of-the-depth-chart players will still have a hand in the outcome of some games.

As with other preseason weeks, it’s probably best to study the tape of the first-team offenses and defenses more than the score sheet.

Here’s a brief rundown on the third week of the preseason slate:

Game of the week: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers, Thursday.

As preseason games go, this could be quite interesting. The Seahawks have not lost an exhibition game since Sept. 2, 2010; in their last six preseason contests, they have averaged 32.2 points. The Packers’ first-string offense looked sharp against St. Louis, with rookie running back Eddie Lacy especially impressive.

Player to study: Bills quarterback Kevin Kolb vs. Redskins, Saturday.

Kolb has a chance to secure the starting job to begin the season with E.J. Manuel out for the rest of the exhibition slate after minor knee surgery. Given Manuel’s value to the franchise, there’s no need to rush him back, and a strong performance from Kolb with the first-team offense on Saturday night would be a reassuring sight for the Bills' organization as the regular-season opener vs. New England looms.

Offense to study: Detroit Lions (vs. New England Patriots, Thursday).

Without wide receiver Calvin Johnson (knee), the Lions’ offense underwhelmed in last week’s loss at Cleveland. Johnson should be able to play in Thursday’s matchup vs. New England, and a little more spark from the Lions should be expected. If the Lions’ offense can’t consistently stress defenses, it could be a long season in Detroit.

Defense to study: New Orleans Saints (at Houston, Sunday).

The Saints sacked Raiders quarterbacks seven times on Friday night, with poor Matt Flynn taken down five times. The Texans’ first-string offense will pose a tougher test for New Orleans. Moreover, the various pressure looks Rob Ryan’s defense could show will be a constructive experience for the Texans’ offense. Both teams should get a lot out of this game.

NFL Trends & Angles - Preseason Week 3

The second week of the 2013 preseason is in the books, and after the underdogs went 11-6 both straight up and ATS in Week 1 plus the Hall of Fame Game, the favorites got their revenge in Week 2 going 13-3 straight up and a riveting 11-5 ATS.

As for the totals, the 'under' made a bit of a comeback going 8-7-1 after the 'over' was 12-5 coming in, but generally the games have still been higher scoring than preseasons past, and even with posted totals also being higher with some being in the 40s, which would have been considered an anomaly in past seasons, the 'under' did not really perform as well as expected.

We now move on to Week 3, which is the week most teams have their regular season dress rehearsals with the starters playing the longest. While this is true better than 90 percent of the time, we still recommend you scour the teams' websites to get a feel for the coaches' game plans in the event you find a team or two that does not intend to play its starters as long as most other teams, as that could give you an added advantage.

Before moving on to the specifics of Week 3, let us take a look at the updated records of the four coaches that have had great preseason records that we recommended you should follow throughout the preseason. It did not turn out to be a good week for the Big Four as they split their four games straight up and, even worse, went just 1-3 ATS.

Mike Shanahan (Washington Redskins): Shanahan was the one member of the Big Four to win and cover this week when his Redskins handled the Steelers on Monday night. That brings the winningest active preseason coach in the NFL to 51-23 straight up in preseason with the Redskins and Denver Broncos combined, and his teams are now 32-18-1, 64.0 percent ATS since 2000.

Mike Tomlin (Pittsburgh Steelers): Tomlin had the misfortune of running into Shanahan in that 24-13 loss Monday. While that still leaves Tomlin at 19-8 straight up in preseason since becoming Pittsburgh's coach in 2007, he is now 0-2 this year and this looks like the weakest Steelers' team during his tenure. Remember that Tomlin is 5-1 in Week 3 and a perfect 6-0 straight up in Week 4, so those records may get put to the test with this team.

John Harbaugh (Baltimore Ravens): Of the 13 favorites that won in Week 2, 11 of them covered the spread. Unfortunately Harbaugh had one of the two that did not as his Ravens just missed grabbing the cash, winning 27-23 over Atlanta as 4½-point chalk. Harbaugh is now 15-7 straight up overall since becoming coach of the defending Super Bowl Champions in 2008, including 14-4 straight up and 11-7, 61.1 percent ATS since 2009.

Jim Schwartz (Detroit Lions): Schwartz's Lions had the worst performance for a Big Four coach when not facing a fellow Big Four coach as the offense was miserable with Calvin Johnson being inactive in a 24-6 loss to the Cleveland Browns. Schwartz is now 13-5 straight up and 12-6, 66.7 percent ATS since becoming Detroit coach in 2009.

Moving on to Week 3, small favorites of -3 or less have held up better this week than in any other week of preseason, with the help of starting units often playing at least into the third quarter.. However, the underdogs have continued to rule in games with spreads of +3½ or more the past 13 preseasons.

Note that all stated Trends & Angles records both ATS and straight up quoted below are since the 2000 preseason.

Play on Week 3 preseason favorites of -3 or less (56-42-7, 57.1% ATS):
With the starters playing longer, the better teams actually win more often in Week 3 than in other weeks, where lesser teams with more motivation are usually capable of beating better teams. However, the final winning margins are still less than usual in Week 3 even with teams playing truer to form in the win column because the fourth quarter is still mainly garbage time with the backups, which is why this angle is only suited to smaller chalk.

Play on Week 3 preseason underdogs of +3½ or more (59-38, 60.8% ATS):
Bigger underdogs have prospered in Week 3 despite all the starters getting extended minutes, either because the dogs' starters were able to match points throughout or because they frustrated the chalk players with backdoor covers while the reserves were in for the final stanza.

Play the 'over' in Preseason Week 3 in games with posted totals of 39 or more
(42-33, 56.0%):
Again because of the starters playing longer, Week 3 is the highest scoring week of the preseason and games with higher posted totals have actually played out that way with some flying easily 'over' the total.

Week 3 coaches:

Starting with the Big Four

Shanahan is 9-6 straight up in Week 3 with the Broncos and Redskins.

Tomlin is 5-1

Harbaugh is 4-1

Schwartz is 3-1

Here are some other notable Week 3 marks.

Sean Payton (New Orleans Saints, 6-1): Payton is back this season after being suspended last year following the Bountygate scandal, and his Saints are 2-0 straight up and ATS thus far upon his return. Note than Payton is 6-1 ATS in Week 3, matching his straight up mark.

Tom Coughlin (New York Giants, 2-7): Coughlin is also just 2-6-1 ATS in Week 3 and his Giants have not really looked good while scoring just one touchdown in the first two weeks this preseason

Saturday, August 24, 2013

Buffalo at Washington, 4:30 ET NFL
Buffalo: Bills 3-7-1 ATS in preseason road games since 2008
Washington: Redskins 7-2 ATS in home preseason games last four+ seasons

New York Jets at New York Giants, 7:00 ET
New York Jets: The "road" team has beaten the pointspread in this matchup in each of the last four years
New York Giants: Under is 6-2 since 2005 in Giants' second home preseason game

Cleveland at Indianapolis, 7:00 ET
Cleveland: Browns haven't covered in three straight preseason games since 2004
Indianapolis: Over is 5-2 in last seven Colts' home preseason contests

Tampa Bay at Miami, 7:30 ET
Tampa Bay: Buccaneers 8-3 ATS in road preseason games since 2008
Miami: Over is 5-0 in Week 3 games for Dolphins last five preseasons

Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 7:30 ET
Kansas City: Chiefs 3-19 ATS in preseason since 2008
Pittsburgh: Steelers 6-2 ATS at home since 2009 in first three weeks of preseason

Philadelphia at Jacksonville, 7:30 ET
Philadelphia: Eagles 15-29 ATS since 1993 when pointspread is a field goal or less either way
Jacksonville: Over is 7-3 since 2008 when Jacksonville plays in Weeks 3 & 4

Atlanta at Tennessee, 8:00 ET
Atlanta: Under is 6-2 for Falcons' road games in Weeks 2-4 since 2008
Tennessee: Titans 8-3 ATS at home last five seasons

St. Louis at Denver, 8:00 ET CBS
St. Louis: Rams 10-0 ATS in final two weeks of preseason since 2008
Denver: Over is 5-1-1 in Broncos' last seven home preseason games

Cincinnati at Dallas, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: Over is 6-1 in Bengals' last seven road preseason contests
Dallas: Cowboys 1-4 ATS in the first home preseason game since 2008

San Diego at Arizona, 10:00 ET NFL
San Diego: Over is 5-2 in Chargers' road games since 2008 during last two weeks of preseason
Arizona: Cardinals 2-7-1 ATS in last 10 home preseason games versus AFC team

Sunday, August 25, 2013

New Orleans at Houston, 4:00 ET FOX
New Orleans: Saints 10-2 ATS in last 12 road preseason games
Houston: Over is 4-1-1 in Texans' last six preseason games

Minnesota at San Francisco, 8:00 ET NBC
Minnesota: Under is 8-3 since 2008 in Vikings' road preseason games
San Francisco: 49ers 6-0 ATS in home preseason games versus NFC teams since 1993