NFL Preseason Football Wagering Strategy
By Doug Upstone
For years I never followed the NFL in the month of August, thought it was a waste of time and absolutely had nothing to do with the regular season. The latter point is still true, just not the first one. Over the last seven years I made more money in the preseason then I would have guessed betting football online. The beauty of exhibition games (NFL hates that term) is their simplicity. I’ve been very fortunate to honestly hit over 63% (44-25) of these plays the last seven years and now I’ll share with you how it happened. Please understand, in hitting a percentage like this, you have to be very selective and really choose your spots. I’ve made a grand total of 69 plays in seven seasons, that is less than three per week. This can be a challenge for those eager to get started and end up making a significant hole before the regular season actually starts.
Pre-Pre Season
Just like in the regular season, it is important to know your teams. Not talking about reading hours of information about every given team, rather to know the coaches and the tendencies of the teams. Coaching blunders and superior game plans can alter the outcomes of contests during the regular season. Still a missed tackle by the opposition or unexpected turnovers can change the ultimate final score, no matter what a coach does. In the preseason, a coach can directly impact the scoreboard by substitution patterns and what his goal is for the team beforehand.
Throughout the internet is interesting fact-based cold data, available for you to learn from. For example, two NFC division foes have shown they could care less about winning in the preseason, instead they are interested in building the team and having it ready for the start of the regular season and often you can find out exactly what the game plan is by going to team websites. The squads that match the criteria are Dallas and Philadelphia, both of whom are 18-31 ATS as favorites over an extended period of time.
Week 1 - Know your Coaches
This is extremely important if you have a desire to have extra money BEFORE the regular season starts. Be assured all the oddsmakers know these numbers, it is your duty as well if you expect to profit. With Mike Shanahan in Washington, expect him to continue the same methods that have made him a great coach. As opposed to many head coaches, Shanahan has always placed a value on winning to set the right tone for his team where he has been in charge, his squads have covered over 63 percent of the time the first two weeks of the preseason.
Another important factor is first year coaches. This year we only have three taskmasters that are taking over new teams. Each has been a head coach at this level in the past and will want to establish how they will be running their programs. After going through grueling training camps, each will want to prove to his players that the work has been worth the trouble. Nothing pays off like winning. Historically, these coaches can bring a nice profit in contests where they don’t meet one another. Undoubtedly, these generals will want to bring in their type of players and it will be reminiscent of what legendary baseball manager Casey Stengel once said, “We’ll win soon, just not with these players.”
One last area to consider is coaches in peril. These fellows know their jobs are in jeopardy and have to deliver wins, even if it has to start in August. Among those that could be a good bet this month are Jack Del Rio in Jacksonville and Lovie Smith in Chicago. Both have the wolves howling at their door and early wins and a good camp would quell the noise, at least for the time being.
Week 2 - Be ready to pounce
This is one of the two weeks online football betting strategists can really take advantage of the lines and make large profits at SBGGlobal.com. The most important factors this week are prior performance and motivation. These are largely tied together of which you can take advantage. Last season the Dallas Cowboys barely showed a pulse, let alone putting forth any effort and were humbled by Oakland of all teams 31-10 as two-point underdogs in the opener. This didn’t sit well with Wade Phillips and the coaching staff and they put Cowboys players thru the paces. Training camp is hard enough and the last thing any player wants this month is coaches hollering and screaming about effort. Dallas responded very positively and toppled Tennessee 30-10 as field goal favorites.
Likewise, just the opposite can occur as Tom Coughlin of the New York football Giants found out. In an unusually spirited opening contest, the Giants and Carolina went at it and New York won a hard fought game 24-17 as three-point faves. The very next week Coughlin’s club could do nothing right, especially on offense and were handled easily by Chicago 17-3.
Know this, Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS in week 2 and Dallas is 7-1 ATS.
Week 3 –Dress Rehearsal
This has become the most important week of the preseason, at least for coaches to get a real sense of where the team is and if they were on schedule. Starters will play about two-thirds of the game and a semblance of a game plan will be implemented. Many of the same principles still apply about motivation, with a few variations of note.
The coaches and players place additional importance on this week, thus giving a good showing does matter. In the preseason, situational handicapping has relevance, especially for teams losing by 10 or more points the week before. This is noteworthy, with back-ups playing and the games should be fairly evenly matched. Once again coaches will create further accountability through motivational and psychological tactics. In 2005, New England was humbled by the Saints in week 2, losing 37-27. In reading the Boston papers, Coach Belichick made it quite clear another defensive effort of that nature was not acceptable. The Patriots went to the thawed frozen tundra and laid a whipping on Green Bay 27-3.
How this works to your advantage is maybe the coach feels the team is coming along too fast and wants to dial it back. We all know head coaches are control freaks. They want to build you up to tear you down and vice versa. As mentioned in the preseason, these maniacal masters love to put the team thru grueling practices after a weak effort. Others might feel the club is peeking way to early and let them slack a bit after exceptional performance, while closely monitoring they don’t lose their edge. This is part of the other aspect of analyzing situations, teams off blowout wins or losses.
This is where knowing the personality of a head coach is so important. When Mike Holmgren was in charge, he was famous for taking his team on emotional roller-coaster in August, never letting them feel too good or bad about themselves. Super Bowl winning coach Sean Payton is a noted “go for the jugular” type and he served notice last season, as his team was ready and they were 3-0 SU and ATS, outscoring the opposing teams 100-28 before calling off the dogs.
Week 4 – Pick your spots and be ready for the regular season
The final week of the season is nothing more than final preparation for most teams trying only to avoid injury and making final cuts. The Indianapolis Colts are 2-8 ATS in their final preseason tilt, including five straight spread losses. Be cautious in your plays the last week. If you are having a winning preseason, a game or two that you really are sure of is worth the risk. If you are having a so-so or below average time in picking winners before the start of the regular season, save your money for what you care about. This is what you have been looking forward to anyways.
Final Thoughts
Take the time to review the box scores. Do not do this for the traditional reasons as you might believe. Looking at stats and trying to figure out your fantasy team has nothing to do with the preseason games. What this is for is future reference. This can lead to insights about any team’s depth. Every NFL team is going to have injuries. By reviewing the box scores this time of year, you might find a team that has built up a 17-0 or 20-3 leads with the first team players in two different games and ends up losing both contests in the second half. This could be a red flag that when this team has injuries during the season, the drop off will be precipitous. Most importantly, don’t overanalyze, follow the coaches of the 32 teams and have fun.