NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting News and Notes

Preseason Betting - Some Do Some Don't
Sportspic.com

Even in supposedly ‘meaningless’ preseason games some coaches care about winning, while others do not as they simply try to evaluate personnel. Therefore identifying head coaches who care about outcomes in these practice sessions and those who don't give a damn helps pad betting accounts. Case in point, Jim Schwartz of the Lions is an amazing 10-2 (9-3 ATS) since taking over coaching duties in Detroit including a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS last season. Mike Shanahan of the Washington Redskins is another August winner as he's on a 16-8 stretch including 5-3 SU/ATS last two years with Redskins. Last but not least, Steelers Mike Tomlin is a smart 16-5 (13-8 ATS) in five practice seasons with Pittsburgh.

On the flip side, Andy Reid despite a 3-1 SU/ATS mark in 2011 remains 21-31 (22-28-2 ATS) since taking over reigns in Philadelphia. Reid slow to get his troops going is on a 3-6 (2-7 ATS) stretch in early and week-one preseason tilts. Ken Whisenhunt's troops knocked off 17-10 in the HOF game are 7-14 (8-12-1 ATS) since he took over in Arizona back in 2007. Honourable DUD mention goes to the Indianapolis Colts who were 12-30 (16-24-2 ATS) under Dungy, Caldwell with an ugly 5-25 (9-20-1 ATS) slide since 2005. Maybe Andrew and new head coach Chuck Pagano can change their 'LUCK'.

NFL Preseason Betting: Teams with the most QB depth
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Handicapping preseason NFL action is a lot like picking winners on the baseball diamond. So much of your wager is riding on one position. In MLB, it’s the starting pitcher. In the NFL preseason, it’s the quarterback – or should we say quarterbacks.

Finding teams with starting experience on the depth chart is key to cash in during the preseason. Starting QBs may only see a handful of tosses through the first two tune-up games, leaving passing duties to the second, third and sometimes fourth-string pivot.

Here are six teams who hold their preseason betting value long after the No. 1 QB takes off his helmet:

Dallas Cowboys

QBs: Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Stephen McGee, Rudy Carpenter

Dallas bolstered its QB depth chart by adding Orton this offseason. The former starter for the Bears, Broncos and Chiefs was ranked the top backup QB in the NFL by both FoxSports and NFL.com heading into the 2012 season. Behind him is Stephen McGee, who led the preseason in passing with 610 yards in 2011 and has impressed in limited action the past two seasons. Carpenter was slowed by an oblique strain but has been taking snaps since June.

Chicago Bears

QBs: Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Josh McCown, Matt Blanchard

Campbell has starting experience in stints with Washington and Oakland, getting the nod in 64 career NFL games. While he isn’t the most accurate arm - 60.8 career completion percentage – he knows how to run an offense and should hold his own against second and third-string defenses. McCown looked good in three appearances at the end of last season but could lose out to the rookie Blanchard. He’s getting high praise from the Chicago media and could be a project No. 3 QB.

Houston Texans

QBs: Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, John Beck, Case Keenum

The Texans’ quarterback depth was tested last season when both Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart went down with injury, leaving rookie T.J. Yates to lead the franchise to its first playoff appearance – and win. Leinart is in Oakland now but the Texans still have solid depth behind a healthy Schaub in Yates and Beck, both of whom stared games last season. Beck tossed for 858 yards, two TDs and four INTs in Washington last season. Rookie Case Keenum, the NCAA’s all-time leader in passing yards, touchdowns and completions, isn’t a bad option at No. 4 on the depth chart.

New England Patriots

QBs: Tom Brady, Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet

The Patriots had teams drooling over their backup passers last summer after Hoyer and Mallet combined for 335 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 of the preseason. Mallett looked good again in Week 2 and Week 3, averaging 89.2 yards per tune-up game. Hoyer, who currently sits second on the depth chart, is being challenged by his teammate this offseason and Bill Belichick loves the battle between the two young pivots. Last year in Week 1 of the preseason, Brady didn’t even dress, leaving passing duties to the two reserves. Expect a similar rotation when the Pats face the Saints in their preseason opener.

Pittsburgh Steelers

QBs: Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch, Jerrod Johnson

There’s a reason why Mike Tomlin is 16-5 SU and 13-8 ATS in the preseason since taking over the Steelers’ head coaching job in 2007. Pittsburgh has ample experience on the depth chart with backups Byron Leftwich and Charlie Batch eating up preseason minutes in recent years. Leftwich was the No. 1 in Jacksonville back in the day and Batch has been a preseason mainstay ever since Roethlisberger arrived in the Steel City. Johnson, the 24-year-old free agent out of Texas A&M, is challenging for the No. 3 spot and could bump either Batch (37) or Leftwich (32) off the roster if the Steelers want some youth at QB.

New York Jets

QBs: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms

Some argue that if you don’t have a No. 1 QB, you don’t have any QBs at all. If you ask the Jets, Sanchez is their guy despite that fact they acquired miracle-maker Tim Tebow from the Broncos and have been rolling out specialized offenses for the polarizing pivot. The Jets have two different looks under center and a promising passer in Greg McIlroy, who was 33 for 53 for 306 yards and two touchdowns during last year’s warm-up games before suffering a season-ending thumb injury in the preseason finale. Simms is an undrafted free-agent rookie who’s a bit of a fly on the wall to all the QB drama bubbling in the Big Apple.

Other notables:

Arizona Cardinals – QBs: Kevin Kolb, John Skelton, Richard Bartel, Ryan Lindley
Jacksonville Jaguars – QBs: Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Jordan Palmer, Nathan Enderle
Tennessee Titans - QBs: Matt Hasselbeck, Jake Locker, Rusty Smith, Nick Stephens
Buffalo Bills – QBs: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Vince Young, Tyler Thigpen

2 Minute Handicap Week 1
By Marc Lawrence
Playbook.com

Thursday, August 9

Washington 4-0 vs AFC... 4-1 SUATS Game One... 4-1 SUATS Away One... 1-5 Game One Away One... 2-11 UNDER Away One (0-6 L6)... 2-4 UNDER Game One... Shanahan: 13-5 SU/12-5-1 ATS Game One
BUFFALO SERIES: 3-1 L4 / 1-3 H... 3-0 SUATS Home One... 0-6 SUATS vs NFC... 1-6 Game One Home One... 3-0 OVER Home One... 2-6 UNDER Game One... Gailey: 4-14 SU/5-13 all / 0-4 SU/1-3 ATS Game One / 3-1 OVER Game One

New Orleans 7-2 A vs AFC... 6-0-1 OVER vs AFC... 3-0-1 OVER Game Two
NEW ENGLAND SERIES: 3-1 SUATS... 5-1 SUATS Game One Home One... 2-0 SUATS Home One... 3-0 OVER Game One... Belichick: 8-1-3 Game One w/Pats

Pittsburgh SERIES: 5-1 SUATS... 4-1 SUATS Game One... 0-4 SUATS Game One Away One... 1-8 Away One... 0-6 UNDER Game One... 1-6 UNDER Away Game One
PHILADELPHIA 7-1 SU/ 6-2 ATS Home One... 4-17-1 Game One... 10-4 OVER vs NFC... Reid: 4-9 SU/3-9-1 ATS Game One

Baltimore SERIES: 9-4 SUATS... 4-1 SUATS Game One... 3-1 SUATS Away One... 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS vs NFC.. 0-5 UNDER Away One... 2-11 UNDER Game One... Harbaugh: 3-1 SUATS Game One / 0-4 UNDER Game One
ATLANTA 0-5 SU/1-4 ATS vs AFC... 6-1 OVER Game One... 7-3 OVER Home One... Smith: 1-3 SU Game One / 3-1 OVER Game One

Green Bay 1-6 SUATS Game One Away One... 3-8 SUATS Game One... 5-14 SU/6-12-1 ATS Away vs AFC... 4-0 OVER Away One... 3-8 UNDER Game One... McCarthy: 2-4 SUATS Game One
SAN DIEGO 2-5 SU/1-4-2 ATS vs NFC... 3-8 Game One... 8-4 OVER Game One

Denver 13-2-1 Game One Away One... 17-6-1 Game One... 11-4-1 Away One... 2-6 SUATS vs NFC... Fox: 7-3 OVER Game One
CHICAGO SERIES: host 0-3 SUATS... 6-1 OVER Game One... Smith: 6-2 OVER Game One

Friday, August 10

Tampa Bay SERIES: 7-2... 7-2 SU/ 7-1-1 ATS Game One... 4-1 Game One Away One... 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS away vs AFC... 1-5 UNDER Game One
MIAMI SERIES: 1-7 UNDER... 3-7-1 Home One... 0-4 UNDER Home One... 1-3 UNDER Game One... 2-6 UNDER vs NFC

NY Jets SERIES: 4-0 SUATS... 4-1 Away One... 0-3 SUATS Game One... 5-0 OVER Game One
CINCINNATI SERIES: 5-0 OVER... 0-3 SUATS Game One... 5-0 OVER Home One... Lewis: 2-7 UNDER Game One

Cleveland 1-4 Game One Away One... 1-3 Away One... 5-12 SUATS vs NFC... 2-7 UNDER Away One
DETROIT SERIES: 4-1 SUATS... 12-2 SUATS vs AFC... 4-9-3 Game One... 3-0 OVER Home One... Schwartz: 10-2 SU/9-3 ATS all

NY Giants SERIES: 3-0... 11-5 SU/10-5-1 ATS Game One Away One... 3-7-1 Away One... 1-6 UNDER Away One
JACKSONVILLE 12-4 SU/12-3-1 ATS vs NFC... 0-3 Home One... 6-1 OVER Game One... 4-1 OVER Home One

Arizona SERIES: 4-0 SUATS... 1-5 SUATS Game Two... 3-6 SUATS Away vs AFC... Whisenhunt: 1-4 SUATS Game Two
KANSAS CITY SERIES: 0-3 SUATS H... 1-7-1 SU/1-8 ATS Home One...1-7 SUATS Game One... 5-19-1 SU/4-21 ATS vs NFC... 1-9-1 UNDER Home One... 0-3 UNDER Game One

Minnesota 5-1 SUATS Away One... 4-1 SUATS Game One Away One... 3-1 SUATS Game One
SAN FRANCISCO 0-3 UNDER Home One... 1-4 UNDER Game One

Sunday, August 12

St Louis 3-0 AUST Away One... 11-1 SUATS vs AFC... 3-1 Game One Away One... 4-0 OVER Game One... 8-3 OVER vs AFC
INDIANAPOLIS 0-8 SUATS Home One... 0-5 SUATS Game One... 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS vs NFC... 8-3 OVER Game One... 2-7 UNDER Home One

Monday, August 13

Dallas 1-6 SUATS Game One Away One... 1-6 SUATS away vs AFC... 4-1 OVER Away One... 3-8 UNDER Game One
OAKLAND SERIES: 10-5-1 / 3-1 H... 5-1 SUATS Game One... 1-5 SU/0-6 ATS vs NFC... 3-0 OVER Home One

Best and Worst NFL Preseason Week 1 Bets
By Jason Logan
Covers.com

The NFL preseason can make about as much sense as an episode of Lost. Things that should be never are. And players you’ve never heard of can quickly become your all-time faves.

Preseason trends are just as volatile. The tune-up rosters are different, not only year-to-year, but week-to-week as players are cut and added. However, there are some trends and records that jump out during Week 1 of the preseason and can’t be ignored.

Here’s a look at the best and worst teams against the spread in Week 1 of the NFL preseason.

Records from Week 1 of the preseason since 1995.

Best preseason Week 1 bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)

The Bucs are straight cash in their preseason opener, including covering in Week 1 of the preseason the past two summers. Tampa Bay opens the 2012 preseason slate at Miami as a 2.5-point underdog Friday.

Denver Broncos (9-7 SU, 11-4-1 ATS)

The Broncos are a much different beast than 2011, especially with Peyton Manning under center. Thursday’s game against the Bears (-3) is his first action since playing in the Pro Bowl on Jan. 30, 2011. Head coach John Fox says his starters will play the majority of the first quarter.

Tennessee Titans (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS)

The Titans have a nice QB battle on their hands heading into Week 1 of the preseason with second-year arm Jake Locker fighting veteran Matt Hasselbeck for the starting job. That motivation should provide good value in Tennessee, which is 3-point underdog visiting Hasselbeck’s former team, the Seattle Seahawks, Saturday.

Worst preseason Week 1 bets

Dallas Cowboys (4-12 SU, 3-13 ATS)

It’s tough to find value in the Cowboys during the regular season, but damn near impossible during the exhibition slate. Dallas has been ravaged by injuries this offseason with 17 different players missing practice. America’s Team is a 1.5-point underdog visiting the Raiders Monday.

Detroit Lions (9-7 SU, 4-9-3 ATS)

For anyone who has loyally bet the NFL preseason, this one should catch you off guard. Detroit has provided preseason profits over the past four years, going a combined 12-3-1 ATS in the preseason since 2008. But getting the motor started in Week 1 is an issue. The Lions face the Browns as 3-point home faves Friday.

Philadelphia Eagles (5-10 SU, 4-10-1 ATS)

Eagles head coach Andy Reid never cared about the team’s preseason success in the past and understandably won’t be too concerned about it in 2012 after the death of his son last week. Reid returned to camp following the funeral and is expected to be on the sidelines when Philadelphia hosts the Steelers as a pick’em Thursday. "It will be therapy for Andy,” Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie told reporters.

Best NFL Preseason Week 1 Over/Under Bets
By By Jason Logan
Covers.com

Finding your bearings when it comes to preseason offenses and defenses is like trying to chart a pleasure cruise through the Bermuda Triangle.

The mystery surrounding a coach's game plan in the exhibition slate can leave over/under bettors wagering on blind faith. However, these totals trends may act as a compass in Week 1 of the NFL preseason.

Here’s a look at the best over and best under bets during Week 1 of the NFL preseason.

Records from Week 1 of the preseason since 1995.

Best preseason Week 1 over bets

New York Jets (7-9 SU, 12-4 over/under)

The J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets have been gold on the O-V-E-R during Week 1 of the preseason the past 16 years. New York has plenty of potential firepower under center with Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow. The total for Friday’s game at Cincinnati is 34 points.

San Diego Chargers (7-9 SU, 11-5 over/under)

The Bolts have been an awesome over bet in Week 1 of the preseason, topping the total in four of the last five exhibition openers. San Diego collides with Green Bay’s powerful offense Friday with the total set at 37.5 points.

Chicago Bears (6-10 SU, 10-6 over/under)

There’s a change in scenery in the Windy City this summer. Chicago, which has long prided itself on defense, has loaded up on offense this offseason. Da Bears played under the number in Week 1 last season, but went over in six straight preseason openers before that. The total is listed at 34.5 for Thursday’s home date with Denver.

Best Week 1 preseason under bets

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-6 SU, 3-13 over/under)

Betting Tampa Bay to cover and play under has been a winning method in Week 1 of the preseason. Not only are the Bucs among the best teams against the spread (11-5 ATS), but they’re also the top under bet during Week 1 of the preseason. Books have a total of 33.5 points set for Tampa’s tune-up opener at Miami Friday.

Washington Redskins (8-8 SU, 4-12 over/under)

Can Heisman winner Robert Griffin III spark a Washington offense that has helped play below the total in 12 of its last 16 Week 1 preseason tilts? The Redskins have gone 1-5 over/under in their last six Week 1 preseason games. That lone over came in 2010 against the Bills, whom they face with an over/under of 35 points Thursday.

Baltimore Ravens (10-5 SU, 3-12 over/under)

The Ravens smash-mouth defense has kept under backers winning in Week 1 of the preseason, staying below the number in each of the past four exhibition openers. Baltimore is missing a key cog in that stop unit with Terrell Suggs out with an Achilles injury and the Ravens game in Atlanta has an over/under of 34 points Thursday.

Tips For Betting The NFL Preseason
By Covers.com

The NFL preseason is one of the toughest schedules to handicap in all of sports betting.

The uncertainty of starters, the puzzle of coaches’ plans and the wildcard of hungry players wanting to earn that final roster spot is enough to make the sharpest bettor’s head spin.

If you’re approaching the upcoming preseason with caution, hear what wiseguys are doing for the next month of football. We asked some of Covers Experts’ top handicappers to give us their tasty tips for surviving the NFL preseason.

Enjoy and good luck!

Marc Lawrence

“There are numerous handicapping edges to be found in wagering on NFL preseason games. One in particular that works well is isolating teams that have a former NFL starting quarterback slotted into the third rotation.

Aside from looking to win a roster spot, they often find themselves going against opposing rookies or inexperienced QB's in the fourth quarter of games.”

Ted Sevransky

“Throw out any opinions you have about how good the teams are actually going to be once the regular season starts. Winning in the NFL preseason is about motivation and matchups, not how good the teams actually are in relation to one another.”

Ben Burns

“Make sure to read all the local newspapers and you'll find plenty of insight into how seriously the coach plans on treating the upcoming game.

For example, Mike Shanahan typically cares more about winning in the preseason than does Andy Reid. It goes deeper than that though and each game and coach needs to be looked at individually.

First-year coaches or coaches on the hot seat generally are feeling some pressure to win. Likewise, coaches of teams that are trying to establish a winning mentality or break a losing cycle often tend to treat the games a little more seriously.”

Sean Murphy

“Be careful not to throw money at a line that has already moved. It's imperative that you stay on top of news regarding QB rotations and coaching game plans on a week-to-week basis.

Once that info becomes available, lines can move in a hurry, so it's important to get down on your action early, perhaps even more important than it is during the regular season."

Matt Fargo

“Finding the correct information is vital as the preseason takes into account many factors that do not apply to the regular season.

Researching local papers can give insight to information that may have been missed by the betting market. This includes quarterback rotations, starters playing time and even gameplan strategies.

The NFL preseason is the only sport you will be able to actually get the head coaches to tell you what they are doing. If you find it, betting the exhibition games can be very lucrative. Take the time to search and it will pay off.”