Best and Worst NFL Preseason Week 4 Bets
By Covers.com
Week 3 of the preseason gave football bettors a glimpse at what life will be like in Week 1 of the NFL season. As for Week 4, well, let’s just say the final game on the preseason slate will test your mettle as well as patience.
Teams rarely play their starters and are ironing out the final wrinkles in the roster in Week 4. Keep a close eye on position battles, as guys fight to stay in the NFL. Here’s a quick look at which teams historically do well and which ones struggle against the spread in the final exhibition tilt, going back to 1995.
Stats from Week 4 of the NFL preseason over the past 16 years.
Best Week 4 preseason bets
Denver Broncos (11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS)
Peyton Manning looks good to go, so Broncos backers shouldn’t bank on a Week 4 appearance from No. 18. Denver’s stellar Week 4 preseason record against the spread has a lot to do with former head coach Mike Shanahan, who is one of the few coaches who actually give two craps about the exhibition win/loss count.
Minnesota Vikings (7-8 SU, 11-5 ATS)
The Vikings have a few positions still up for grabs heading into the last tune-up tilt, especially on defense. Minnesota has been plagued by injuries this preseason, so while it needs to sure up some spots, it will be careful with the starters in Week 4.
Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 SU, 11-5 ATS)
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin likes to head into the regular season on a high note. Since taking over the big job in Steel Town, Tomlin boasts a 5-0 SU mark and a 4-1 ATS record in Week 4 of the preseason. Pittsburgh lost rookie OL David DeCastro to a nasty knee injury last week and will be looking to plug that hole Thursday. Don’t expect oft-injured QB Ben Roethlisberger to be part of that experiment.
Worst Week 4 preseason bets
Philadelphia Eagles (4-12 SU, 4-12 ATS)
Andy Reid has historically not given a rat’s ass about the preseason since becoming head coach of the Eagles in 1999. Reid owns a 3-10 SU and ATS record in Week 4 of the exhibition schedule, with the majority of those games coming against the Jets. Subsequently, New York is a profitable 11-5 ATS in Week 4 of the preseason since 1995.
New Orleans Saints (6-10 SU, 6-10 ATS)
The Saints flexed their muscles with a Week 3 win over the Texans and head into Week 4 of the preseason with a 3-1 ATS mark during the warm-up slate. New Orleans was forced to travel to Tennessee early with Tropical Storm Isaac threatening the Gulf Coast. With possible evacuations for Louisiana, don’t expect the Saints to be thinking about football much Thursday night.
Green Bay Packers (6-10 SU, 4-10-2 ATS)
Packers head coach Mike McCarthy has a 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS count in the final preseason outing since becoming the big cheese in Green Bay. The Packers didn’t show much through the first two weeks of the exhibition calendar and looked good against the Bengals last week. That’s more than enough for McCarthy, who won’t be showing much Thursday.
Preseason QB Rotations
Atssportsline.com
One of the major factors in betting preseason is knowledge about quarterback rotations. Most teams will play their veteran quarterbacks about a quarter or 2-3 possessions (save for Game 3) in preseason, because they want to see what the backup can do in pressure situations and they don’t want to risk injury. In Week 4, most of the starters will sit while some young qb's may play a series or two. This week is all about the backup quarterbacks.
Here are the quarterback rotations for each team as we head towards the fourth week, which begins on Wednesday, August 29.
Arizona: John Skelton, Kevin Kolb, Ryan Lindley, Richard Bartell,
Atlanta: Matt Ryan, Luke McCown, Dominque Davis (R)
Baltimore: Joe Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Curtis Painter,
Buffalo: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Tarvaris Jackson, Tyler Thigpen,
Carolina: Cam Newton, Derek Anderson. Jimmy Clausen
Chicago: Jay Cutler, Jason Campbell, Josh McCown
Cincinnati: Andy Dalton, Bruce Gradkowski, Zac Robinson
Cleveland: Brandon Weeden (R), Colt McCoy, Seneca Wallace, Thad Lewis
Dallas: Tony Romo, Kyle Orton, Stephen McGee
Denver: Peyton Manning, Caleb Hanie, Brock Osweiler (R), Adam Weber
Detroit: Mathew Stafford, Shaun Hill, Kellen Moore (R)
Green Bay: Aaron Rodgers, Graham Harrell, B.J. Coleman (R)
Houston: Matt Schaub, TJ Yates. John Beck, Case Keenum (R)
Indianapolis: Andrew Luck (R), Drew Stanton, Chandler Harnish (R)
Jacksonville: Blaine Gabbert, Chad Henne, Jordan Palmer, Nathan Enderle,
Kanas City: Matt Cassel, Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi
Miami: Ryan Tannehill (R), Matt Moore, David Garrard (inj.), Pat Devlin
Minnesota: Christian Ponder, Sage Rosenfels, Joe Webb, McLeod Bethel-Thompson
New England: Tom Brady, Ryan Mallett, Brian Hoyer,
New Orleans: Drew Brees, Chase Daniel, Luke McCown, Sean Canfield
NY Giants: Eli Manning, David Carr, Ryan Perrilloux
NY Jets: Mark Sanchez, Tim Tebow, Greg McElroy, Matt Simms (R)
Oakland: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, Terrelle Pryor
Philadelphia: Mike Vick (inj.), Mike Kafka (inj.), Nick Foles (R), Trent Edwards,
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch, Jerrod Johnson
San Diego: Philip Rivers, Charlie Whitehurst, Jarrett Lee (R)
San Francisco: Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick, Scott Tolzien, Josh Johnson,
Seattle: Russell Wilson, Matt Flynn, Josh Portis.
St Louis: Sam Bradford, Kellen Clemens, Tom Brandstater, Austin Davis (R)
Tampa Bay: Josh Freeman, Dan Orlovsky, Brett Ratliff
Tennessee: Jake Locker, Matt Hasselbeck, Rusty Smith
Washington: Robert Griffin III (R), Rex Grossman, Kirk Cousins (R), Jonathan Crompton
NFL Preseason Betting News and Notes
By Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo.com
I put all 16 NFL preseason games on my DVR each week and I watch every first half to see how the guys who are likely to see the field in the regular season are progressing. Now that three full weeks of preseason action are in the books, let’s take a look at my personal assessment of some noteworthy squads based on the “eye test”, not on meaningless August stats.
Buffalo Bills: I can understand why this defensive line got so many accolades this past offseason – the Bills are playing five different guys who have led their team in sacks at least once. Bottom line is this team has a monster front four pass rush without the need for a bevy of blitzes to put pressure on opposing quarterbacks. But that pass rush was about the only thing they did right. I saw poor effort from the linebackers and poor coverage downfield. Their man-to-man coverage frankly didn't work. And the $59 million dollar man, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, absolutely stunk up the joint for the second straight week! This team wasn't ready. Maybe some of it was gameplan; they were working on running the football. But the Bills offensive line got eaten up, and the running game didn't work particularly well.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Free agent addition wide receiver Vincent Jackson could be an immediate impact player. Josh Freeman can just chuck it in his direction every time he's in single coverage; Jackson has the size and the hands to reel it in. Mike Williams is another big, tall strong WR on the opposite side – this team finally has legitimate downfield weapons. Tampa’s offensive line struggled in pass protection after pro bowl lineman Davin Joseph got hurt (out for the year!). Freeman was under constant pressure, even against four man rushes. I mean really bad protection! The secondary might be the strength of this defense. And the defensive line could be strong too, but these linebackers are not good; vulnerable to the run.
Kansas City Chiefs: This D forgot to show up for the second straight week, pushed around up front and unable to make any plays at all in the secondary. First round pick Dontari Poe is not starting at nose tackle – all reports say he’s very raw. Unfortunately for KC, the guy who beat him out, Anthony Toribio, limped to the sideline with an ankle injury here! WR Dwayne Bowe signed his franchise tender, giving the offense a much needed playmaker. But key defensive playmaker, cornerback Brandon Flowers, is still banged up – they need him in the secondary, bad. This offensive line got eaten up!
Indianapolis Colts: This is a bottom-tier offensive line; primed to stunt the growth of #1 overall draft choice Andrew Luck. Luck was under constant pressure, but showed good poise in the pocket and had a nice touch on his downfield throws. This defense was loaded with question marks heading into the preseason, with head coach Chuck Pagano looking to install a similar defense to the one he coordinated in Baltimore last year. Things have gotten worse, with cluster injuries all over the defense. Indy’s front seven already resembles a MASH unit, not a good sign moving forward.
Washington Redskins: Robert Griffin didn’t take any sacks against the Colts, but he was running for his life behind an offensive line that really struggled in pass protection. Griffin made some nice throws, but he wasn't accurate throwing on the run. Given the state of the line in front of him, that’s clearly an area where the rookie will need to improve. The line did a much better job run blocking – Alfred Morris had room to run throughout. The Redskins defense was at its best when Jim Haslett was dialing up the blitz, but they struggled to get off the field on third down.
New Orleans Saints: For the second straight week, I saw a boatload of missed tackles from this defense! Lots and lots and lots of them, with the secondary tackling as poorly as the linebackers, while the front four got pushed around. Steve Spagnuolo's brand new defensive schemes are not getting the job done just yet, but they weren't blitzing a ton either. Mediocre play from the offensive line, but this team can catch and run with the best of them; still a big play, quick strike offense! New Orleans definitely has some kick coverage issues – will special teams’ problems be a recurring issue for a team without a head coach?
Seattle Seahawks: This defense got pressure, and owned the line of scrimmage playing their usual 4-3 without much blitzing. That’s very good news on a unit where three defensive backs went to the Pro Bowl last year. Protection for the punting game was bad. Last week they allowed two punt blocks (even though one went for 53 yards after getting tipped behind the line of scrimmage), and there still seemed to be protection issues against Arizona this past weekend. I can’t argue with rookie Russell Wilson winning the starting QB job. Matt Flynn spent two weeks dinking and dunking while looking tentative in the pocket; then sat Week 3 with a sore elbow. Wilson led the offense to six consecutive scores to open the game against KC; making good decisions with the football and great plays with his feet. I haven’t seen a more impressive August running back than Seattle rookie Robert Turbin, dragging defenders an extra yard or two on nearly every play.
Minnesota Vikings: Running back Toby Gerhart is starting to play like he did in college, getting 3-4-5 yards every time he touches the ball, as long as they aren't running him wide (why on earth are they calling plays that run him wide?). Gerhart lacks big play ability at the NFL level, but he can change the momentum of a sideline with his bruising style. QB Christian Ponder has been hammered by a four man pass rush in each of the last two weeks, including an ugly five sack performance against San Diego. Ponder demonstrated good mobility in the pocket and made a handful of good throws with pressure in his face, a noticeable improvement from last year. This defense forced five three-and-outs in seven first half possessions against the Chargers, a solid showing. But I must temper my enthusiasm somewhat because San Diego was playing with a banged up OL and a backup QB.