NFL Pro Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
NFC vs. AFC (+4, 74)
THE STORY: The NFL does have a bowl game scheduled on Sunday. No, not the one pitting the New England Patriots against the New York Giants – that one will take place next week with decidedly far more pomp and circumstance.
This Sunday, the other 30 NFL teams will showcase their stars in the Pro Bowl. Yes, this is the game that often resembles a flag football competition with countless cameos of the stars on rival teams joking with one another along the sideline. Then again, this is also the contest that often draws larger-than-expected ratings as the scoreboard operator gets a spirited workout.
Welcome to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl, which for the third straight year comes one week before that “other” Bowl.
LINE: The NFC opened as a 3.5-point favorite and was bet up to -4. The total was posted at 72.5 points and immediately took action on the over, moving the number to 74.
ABOUT THE NFC: Perhaps not surprisingly, the holders of the conference's top two seeds in the playoffs will be well-represented in Hawaii. San Francisco boasts nine players selected to the Pro Bowl while Green Bay is sending six of its finest to Aloha Stadium, headlined by 49ers stud running back Frank Gore and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers and veteran cornerback Charles Woodson. (Gore pulled out due to injury – a common theme for this game.) Green Bay will also send head coach Mike McCarthy, marking the second time that he has guided the NFC in a Pro Bowl (2008). New Orleans’ record-setting QB Drew Brees will see a familiar face in tight end Jimmy Graham, who will be making his first Pro Bowl appearance. With perhaps a future contract in mind, Chicago running back Matt Forte is expected to play despite missing the last four weeks of the regular season with a sprained knee.
ABOUT THE AFC: Four of the eight Baltimore players selected for the contest ultimately pulled out after the Ravens fell to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. As a result, Denver's six Pro Bowlers lead the conference's contingent – although the highly popular Tim Tebow is not among them. Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has opted to play despite being hampered by an ailing ankle, thus keeping Tebow on his couch and preventing myriad non-football media outlets from descending on the nation's 50th state. Baltimore LB Ray Lewis will be making his 13th Pro Bowl appearance while Houston coach Gary Kubiak will be enjoying his first.
SUPER SUBSTITUTES: With New England brandishing eight Pro Bowlers who will no longer play in the exhibition, the AFC needed to significantly shuffle its deck. Cincinnati rookie quarterback Andy Dalton and tight end Jermaine Greshman (replacing Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski) and San Diego wideout Vincent Jackson (Wes Welker) were among the notable additions. On the NFC side, New York quarterback Eli Manning and defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul were replaced by Carolina rookie Cam Newton and Chicago veteran Julius Peppers.
ALL ATWITTER: The NFL has relaxed its rules in regard to social media for this one game. Pro Bowl players will be allowed to tweet during the contest – well, sort of. The league designated specific kiosks on the sidelines for players to detail everything that is on their minds without fear of being flagged by Commissioner Roger Goodell.
LAST YEAR/SERIES HISTORY: The NFC posted a wild 55-41 victory over the AFC last year to claim a 21-20 edge in the all-time series. The NFC has won three of the last four Pro Bowls but the AFC holds a 14-12 all-time series lead. Over the past five seasons, the NFC is 4-1 ATS while the over/under is 3-2.
PREDICTION: NFC 49, AFC 35. No field goals here as the teams take turns racing up and down the field. After being named the Super Bowl MVP last season, Rodgers will need to make room in his trophy case (ahem) after being named the Pro Bowl MVP Sunday.
All-Star Wagers
VegasInsider.com
Some gamblers love All-Star games and others could care less but the one thing we do know is that some folks are paying attention, at least to the results. When it comes to picking a side in these exhibitions, most would agree that the outcomes are toss-ups. However, the recent 'over' trend has made the oddsmakers adjust or some might say overreact.
"To my knowledge, this is the highest Pro Bowl total that I can remember," said Senior Consultant Michael Perry from Sportsbook.com. "The the line has been creeping up every year and it's based off past results. The winning team has scored 38 more points in nine of the last 12 Pro Bowls. Defense is pretty much non-existent because no one wants to see an injury happen in Hawaii."
NFL Pro Bowl History (2007-2011)
2007: AFC 31 NFC 28 (UNDER 64)
2008: NFC 42 AFC 30 (OVER 62.5)
2009: NFC 30 AFC 21 (UNDER 65.5)
2010: AFC 41 NFC 34 (OVER 57)
2011: NFC 55 AFC 41 (OVER 66.5)
This year's total of 74 points is the highest 'over/under' in the past six seasons. Make a note that along with some veteran gunslingers on each side, both the NFC and AFC will have starting rookie quarterbacks. And who knows if that even matters.
While the Pro Bowl has watched the 'over' go 3-2 (60%) in the last five installments, the 'over' in the NHL All-Star Game has been a much better investment. The 'over' has gone 3-1 (75%) and the oddsmakers have adjusted here as well. The total used to hover around 16 goals but this year's has jumped up to 18 or 18 ½ at some betting shops.
NFC Quarterbacks
Aaron Rodgers
Drew Brees
Cam Newton
AFC Quarterbacks
Ben Roethlisberger
Phillip Rivers
Andy Dalton
While the Pro Bowl has watched the 'over' go 3-2 (60%) in the last five installments, the 'over' in the NHL All-Star Game has been a much better investment. The 'over' has gone 3-1 (75%) and the oddsmakers have adjusted here as well. The total used to hover around 16 goals but has jumped up to 18 or 18 ½ at some betting shops.
Perry added, "I think with the concussion issues that have been surrounding the NHL, that this is pretty much same scenario as with the Pro Bowl. You are going to see hardly any defense played, not like you did before and as a result a game with a slew of goals."
Below are the two teams that were drafted on Thursday for this year's All-Star Game from Ottawa.
NHL All-Star Game History (2007-2011)
2007: West 12 East 9 (OVER 15.5)
2008: East 8 West 7 (UNDER 16)
2009: East 12 West 11 (OVER 16.5)
2010: No game - Winter Olympic Games
2011: Team Lidstrom 11 Team Staal 10 (Over 16.5)
2012 All-Star Game Rosters
Team Chara
Goaltenders
Tim Thomas
Carey Price
Jimmy Howard
Forwards
Joffrey Lupul
Pavel Datsyuk
Evgeni Malkin
Marian Hossa
Patrick Kane
Corey Perry
Phil Kessel
Jarome Iginla
Marian Gaborik
Jordan Eberle
Tyler Seguin
Jamie Benn
Defensemen
Zdeno Chara
Kimmo Timonen
Ryan Suter
Brian Campbell
Dennis Wideman
Dion Phaneuf
Team Alfredsson
Goaltenders
Henrik Lundqvist
Jonathan Quick
Brian Elliott
Forwards
Daniel Alfredsson
Jason Spezza
Claude Giroux
Daniel Sedin
Steven Stamkos
Milan Michalek
Henrik Sedin
James Neal
John Tavares
Scott Hartnell
Jason Pominville
Logan Couture
Defensemen
Kris Letang
Shea Weber
Dan Girardi
Keith Yandle
Alex Edler
nahhh 49 - 35 too low with faggu panty rules in i can go play with them 1 NO wonder BIG Ben is playing he will not get hit !
this will be like college shoot out 65- 55 type of game NO Fg's all 4 down each side wow each quter will have 17 points or more !
a Freaking joke of a game now !