NFL Pro Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know
By Jon Kuiperij
AFC vs. NFC (-1, 63)
Can’t wait until the Super Bowl to get your football betting fix? The Pro Bowl’s got you covered.
Some of the AFC and NFC’s brightest stars will line up in Hawaii for the NFL’s annual all-star game Sunday. Here are a few things you need to know if you’re considering betting on the game.
Odds
The NFC is a small favorite, opening as 1-point chalk. The total is set at 63.
What’s at stake?
Not much, other than pride and a few extra shekels in the players’ bank accounts. Each player on the winning team will receive $45,000, while players on the losing team get $22,500.
History lesson
The AFC won last year’s Pro Bowl 41-31 and has been victorious in six of its last 10 showdowns with the NFC.
The highest-scoring Pro Bowl in the last decade was 2004, when the NFC edged the AFC 55-52. The lowest-scoring contest during that span was in 2006, a 23-17 win by the NFC.
The AFC, which has been held to 30 points or less just twice in the past 10 years, holds a 14-11 edge in the all-time series.
Breaking down the skill positions
Comparing one Pro Bowl roster to the next is like comparing diamonds. Each is very special but also has its specific flaws.
The AFC’s offense boasts the NFL’s leading passer, San Diego Chargers QB Philip Rivers. He’ll be tossing to the league’s top receiver, Denver’s Brandon Lloyd and Indianapolis’ Reggie Wayne, who finished third in receiving yards. The Chiefs’ Dwayne Bowe and Patriots’ Wes Welker round out the AFC’s WR corps.
On the ground, the AFC hands the ball to NFL leading rusher, Houston’s Arian Foster, as well as the second-leading rusher, Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles, and former rushing champ Chris Johnson.
The NFC has a dual-threat in Michael Vick, who can do damage through the air and on the ground. At receiver, the conference goes with Atlanta’s Roddy White, Detroit’s Calvin Johnson, Dallas' Miles Austin and Arizona’s Larry Fitzgerald, giving the NFC a size advantage on the wings, especially when you add tight ends Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez into the mix.
The NFC’s rushing attack is led by Atlanta’s Michael Turner, Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson and St. Louis’ Steven Jackson, presenting a smash-mouth ground game that would rather run through tacklers than around them.
Peterson, who won the MVP award in 2008, has a chance to become the all-time touchdown leader in the Pro Bowl if he finds the end zone this Sunday, giving him four career scores in the all-star event.
No Super players
Last year’s decision by the NFL to move the Pro Bowl ahead two weeks means players on this year’s Super Bowl teams won’t be in the all-star game.
The absence of Pittsburgh and Green Bay players will be most felt on the defensive side of the ball. The Steelers’ James Harrison, Troy Polamalu and Brett Keisel will all be missing in action, as will the Packers’ Nick Collins, Clay Matthews, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams.
The NFC’s offence will have to make do without Green Bay’s Greg Jennings and Chad Clifton, while the AFC will be without Steelers center Maurkice Pouncey.
Injury bug
Several of the AFC’s top offensive players won’t be playing in Hawaii.
Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson and Antonio Gates were all selected as starters but will not be playing due to various injuries. Replacing them on the AFC roster are Matt Cassel, Chris Johnson, Wes Welker and Zach Miller.
All the NFC’s selected offensive starters will suit up Sunday except for Eagles tackle Jason Peters and WR DeSean Jackson.
Defensively, the AFC will be without Dwight Freeney, Richard Seymour and Ed Reed, while the NFC will miss the services of Ndamukong Suh, Patrick Willis, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher and Asante Samuel.
Eager for Vick-tory
Don’t count Mike Vick among the players that fail to take a Pro Bowl appearance seriously.
The former dog-killer is eager to cap off his remarkable comeback season with a strong showing at the all-star game.
“I’m very thankful and happy to be here and I’m going to try and put on a great show for the fans,” Vick told reporters. “This one feels great due to the fact that I’ve been through so much. To be able to get back to this position is paramount to me and I’m just thankful.”
Matt Ryan and Drew Brees will back up Vick Sunday, while Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Cassel will be under center for the AFC.
NFL Betting Preview: Pro Bowl back in Hawaii
By: Stephen Nover
It’s not quite true that there isn’t any pro football the week before the Super Bowl. The 41st matchup of the AFC versus the NFC, otherwise known as the Pro Bowl, takes place Sunday at 4 p.m. PT with Fox televising.
Yawn.
This game lost any significance years ago. Most people don’t care and bookmakers aren’t overeager to put up a number either. Odds on the matchup were hard to find during the beginning of the week.
One early line had NFC minus 1½ with an ‘over/under’ of 62. Do note the game has been moved back to its island home of Aloha Stadium in Honolulu, Hawaii, which is a fast track with Fieldturf as its surface. The Pro Bowl had been played there from 1980 until 2009.
Last year’s matchup, though, was played in Miami’s Sun Life Stadium, which has a grass field. That didn’t prevent a high-scoring game, which has
become the norm in this matchup.
Philip RiversThe AFC won, 41-34, last season as 2½-point favorites. The NFC had won during the previous two years. The combined 75 points flew ‘over’ the 57½-point total.
Houston’s Matt Schaub earned MVP honors throwing for 189 yards and two touchdowns while completing 13-of-17 passes.
High scores, rules designed to protect the quarterback and a startling lack of effort on defense in order not to risk injury has become the trademark of this game. This makes it dangerous to try to go ‘under’ the total even though it’s the largest of the season.
The total has gone ‘over’ seven of the past 11 times since 2000 with the average combined score totaling 67.1 points. This number, though, is somewhat skewed by 107 points being scored in the 2004 game.
This is the second time the game is being played prior to the Super Bowl, which means no players from the Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers will be participating.
A number of top players, including Tom Brady, have dropped out of the game, too, due to injury or disinterest. Brady is legitimately out with a foot injury.
The head coaches are Bill Belichick of New England and Mike Smith of Atlanta.
Quarterbacks for the AFC are Philip Rivers, Peyton Manning and Matt Cassel, who was chosen to replace Brady. Rivers will be the starter.
NFC quarterbacks are Michael Vick, Matt Ryan and Drew Brees. Vick is the starter.
AFC running backs are rushing leading Arian Foster, Jamaal Charles and Chris Johnson while the NFC has Adrian Peterson, Michael Turner and Steven Jackson.
The wide receivers for the AFC are Brandon Lloyd, Reggie Wayne, Dwayne Bowe and Wes Welker, a replacement for Andre Johnson.
NFC wideouts are Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, DeSean Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald, selected to replace Green Bay’s Greg Jennings.
Tight ends for the AFC are Mercedes Lewis and Zach Miller, chosen to replace injured Antonio Gates.
Jason Witten and Tony Gonzalez are the tight ends for the NFC.
Among the defensive players who dropped out are Dwight Freeney, Richard Seymour, Ndamukong Suh, Patrick Willis, Lance Briggs, Brian Urlacher, Asante Samuel and Ed Reed.
Although they’ll be missing the Steelers’ Troy Polamalu, the AFC may hold an edge in the defensive backfield with Nnamdi Asomugha, Darrelle Revis and Devin McCourty slated to play. The NFC not only will be without Samuel, but also Green Bay’s Charles Woodson, Tramon Williams and Nick Collins.
The series is tied 20 apiece. The AFC has won six of the past 10 Pro Bowls.
NFL Weekend Betting Preview
The Pro Bowl returns to Hawaii this weekend, and betting is almost a must for football fans to make the meaningless game even remotely interesting.
This year's Pro Bowl should continue the tradition of offensive showcases with little or no regard for defense. Last year's game was just that, as the AFC defeated the NFC 41-34 in a shootout. Matt Schaub earned MVP honors after getting the AFC on the board early with two touchdown passes in the opening quarter.
Sunday's game could be more notable for who's not playing than for who will be on the field - at least on the AFC side. The AFC starters on offense have been decimated by injuries, which have forced many big names to skip the game. The AFC starters taking a pass on this year's game include Tom Brady, Maurice Jones-Drew, Andre Johnson, and Antonio Gates. Their replacements are still good, but don't rate quite as high and include Matt Cassel, Chris Johnson, Wes Welker, and Zach Miller. The only AFC offensive starters playing this weekend that don't include linemen are Reggie Wayne and Vonta Leach.
The NFC starters have avoided the injury bug and will be playing all of their starters on Sunday. Their starting lineup includes Michael Vick, Michael Turner, Roddy White, Calvin Johnson, and Jason Witten.
Along with the injured, any Pro Bowl players on the Super Bowl teams, Green Bay and Pittsburgh, are also out of the game. This year that includes six Packers, Chad Clifton, Nick Collins, Greg Jennings, Tramon Williams, and Charles Woodson, and four Steelers, James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Brett Keisel, and Maurkice Pouncey.
Likely due to the AFC's injury-depleted lineup the NFC is a small 1-point favorite in this year's game. Before the AFC's win last year the NFC had won back-to-back Pro Bowls in 2008 and 2009, but the last 10 Pro Bowls are split down the middle with each conference winning five apiece.
For bettors wagering on the total it's been a lot simpler in recent years. If you've been taking the OVER you've almost gotten paid every year. This year's posted total is 62, which may seem high, but not when you're talking about the Pro Bowl. When you've got the best offensive players going up against defenses that are only playing with the pedal down halfway you know a lot of points are going to be scored.
In the last 10 Pro Bowls at least 50 points have been scored nine times. The 60-point mark has been cracked six times, including the highest-scoring game in the last decade in triple digits in 2004 when the NFC topped the AFC 55-52. The easiest way to explain is to simply say that in the last 11 Pro Bowls the final score has gone OVER the posted total nine times.
The other big wager to make in the Pro Bowl is on the prop for who's going to win the MVP. As we already mentioned Schaub snagged the honor last season and became the fourth QB to win the award in the last seven games. Also winning were Marc Bulger in 2004, Peyton Manning in 2005, and Carson Palmer in 2007.
Trying to pick the MVP out of lineups of a few dozen players isn't easy, but you can trim the pack down based on previous winners. It's almost a given that the MVP is going to come from the winning team, since a player from the losing side hasn't taken home the MVP since Reggie White in 1987. Since the NFC is favored, the MVP is more likely to be an NFC player.
Quarterbacks have won the MVP in six of the last 10 Pro Bowls and have become the favorite to win it every year. If that holds up this year the best bets would likely be Michael Vick or backup QB Matt Ryan.
If you're looking for MVP underdogs the last wide receiver to win the MVP, Larry Fitzgerald, has a shot at a repeat win this weekend, as do Peyton Manning and Adrian Peterson, two other former winners.
A real MVP underdog would be a defensive player, as only two, Derrick Brooks and Ty Law, have won the MVP in the last 20 years. Possible standout defensive players that could be worth a couple bucks include Ray Lewis, Darrelle Revis, Julius Peppers, and DeMarcus Ware.