NFL Prop Shop: Super Bowl XLIII
By DAVID CHAN
Take a look around any sportsbook and you'll find an unending list of prop bets. I have the job of scouring the lists and coming up with only the best wagers available.
I'm going to do things a little differently this week. I have two must-bet value plays and six opinion bets for you to consider.
Best of luck and most importantly, don't lose your shirt on these fun bets.
Player to win MVP: Santonio Holmes (+1500)
I'm surprised we're still able to get this price with the Steelers biggest offensive playmaker.
With Hines Ward banged up, Holmes becomes Ben Roethlisberger's go-to guy. While he has just four catches in two playoff games, he's found the end zone twice. Once on the receiving end and another on a punt return. Some guys simply have a knack for busting out big plays and Holmes is one of them.
As we saw in the Cardinals' win over the Eagles in the NFC Championship Game, they do have a tendency to get burned by the long pass. Donovan McNabb hooked up with Kevin Curtis and DeSean Jackson on several big plays downfield. That's a weakness Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense should be able to expose as well.
Holmes has the speed to stretch the field and, as we've seen during his punt returns, he's got moves on moves. Don't be surprised if Holmes makes an impact not only in the passing game but also on special teams. If the Steelers are to win this game, he'll be high on the list of MVP candidates.
Most passing yards: Kurt Warner -24.5 yards (+100)
All Kurt Warner has done in these playoffs is throw for over 750 yards, eight touchdowns and two interceptions.
I know he's up against the baddest defense on the planet but something tells me the old guy still has some magic left.
The Cardinals ground game has seen a resurgence in January but their bread and butter is still their aerial attack. Don't expect to see Todd Haley call anything but a game suited to Warner's strengths Sunday.
The Steelers rely heavily on Ben Roethlisberger but he's not the focus of their offense. He can throw for under 200 yards and they're still capable of winning handily. Anyone remember the Divisional Round, when Ben threw for only 181 yards. Pittsburgh still scored 35 points in that game.
I would advise shopping around to ensure you can get Warner at plus money, regardless of how many yards you have to lay.
Opinion bets
Will the Cardinals score in every quarter: Yes (+295)
Simply too good of an offense to pass up the value offered here.
Carey Davis (PIT) rush yards + receiving yards: Over 2.5 (+120)
Davis has four catches for 27 yards and one rushing attempt in these playoffs. Worth a roll of the dice, I say.
Total first downs in the game: Over 38.5 (+135)
Something tells me both of these offenses move the football at will.
Total number of players to attempt a pass: Over 2.5 (+170)
Hey, it's the Super Bowl. I'll go one step further and predict it's the Cardinals that help cash this ticket.
Most receiving yards (Breaston vs. Washington): Breaston -9.5 (+140)
The Cardinals will mix it up a little more than we've seen in their last two games. Breaston becomes a bigger factor.
Steelers rush yards: Over 115.5 (+105)
Pittsburgh's ground game was stuck in the mud against Baltimore. It'll bounce back here.