NFL prop shop: Week 2 analysis and picks
By DAVID CHAN
I’m treading water after posting a 2-2 record in this column last week. Let’s get back on the profitable side with the examination of this week’s props.
Note: these props can be found at various books, but prices will vary. I’ll list the plays only, and you can seek out the best price available.
Here are four picks to click.
Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
Most rushing yards: Michael Turner vs. Earnest Graham
Play on: Graham
I know it’s difficult, but put Turner’s record-setting Week 1 performance to the side for a moment. This Falcons team is going to go through some growing pains. Their offensive line is by no means their strength and Turner will be sharing the load with Jerious Norwood.
Even last week, Turner only carried the ball 22 times, while Norwood got the call 14 times. I’m willing to bet we’ll see a major drop-off in Turner’s production against the Bucs this week.
Even after his breakout 2007 season, Graham is still a relative unknown.He had only 10 carries in Week 1, yet still managed to run for 91 yards. With Brian Griese getting the starting nod at QB this week, Graham should become the focal point of the Bucs offense.
Green Bay vs. Detroit
Most passing yards: Aaron Rodgers vs. Jon Kitna
Play on: Kitna
Let’s fade another big time performance from Week 1, this one coming from Aaron Rodgers.
It didn’t take long for him to win over the Lambeau faithful on Monday night. He and Greg Jennings have shown tremendous chemistry since the beginning of the preseason. But I expect the Packers to concentrate on grinding out yardage on the ground this week.
Why not after watching Michael Turner run roughshod over the Lions last Sunday?
The Lions’ game plan will once again involve throwing, throwing, and throwing some more. Jon Kitna was under pressure all day long, but still threw for 262 yards last week. He threw for 470 yards in two games against the Packers last season and look for him to throw near 300 this week.
Indianapolis vs. Minnesota
Most receptions: Marvin Harrison vs. Bernard Berrian
Play on: Harrison
The jury is still out as to whether Harrison is 100 percent healthy, and based on the way the Colts’ offense looked on national TV last Sunday night, few will be looking to get behind him in this matchup.
Even though the offense looked out of sync, Peyton Manning still connected with Harrison eight times last Sunday. I’m not sure that Berrian will even see eight passes thrown his way, let alone receptions, this week.
Chicago vs. Carolina
Most sacks
Play on: Carolina
Both of these teams pulled off surprising upsets in Week 1 and both offensive lines took good care of their quarterbacks. Kyle Orton was sacked twice against the Colts while the Chargers took Jake Delhomme down only once.
I think there are a couple of reasons why we’ll see value with the Panthers here.
The majority of folks still see the Bears as an elite defensive team. I’m not saying that they’re not. I’m just pointing out why they could be slightly overvalued in a prop like this.
Everyone watched them rattle Peyton Manning last Sunday night, while few saw the job the Panthers did against Philip Rivers and the Chargers.
Second, I’ll take the veteran Jake Delhomme over Kyle Orton when it comes to poise in the pocket. Delhomme did an excellent job sensing pressure from a strong Chargers pass rush in Week 1. Orton didn’t face a great deal of pressure against the Colts, so it’s hard to say how far he has progressed.