NFL Quick Hits – Week 5
By Doug Upstone
Home underdogs continue to be the rage with 19-10-1 ATS record this season and all underdogs are 39-20-1 against the spread the past month. WTF is up with that?
Checked with professional online gambler and friend who goes by the name of "Chris" and asked him what is going on.
"Start with all the top level teams from the past several years not being as talented, at least to this point of the season. It is conventional wisdom within the "good old boys" network of football announcers to overlook glaring issues.
Everyone knew Dallas has real offensive line problems and it largely was assumed the Cowboys would just magically fix them. Indianapolis can't stop the run, which means fewer chances for Peyton Manning to lead his offense. It's become an omnipresent TV picture of Manning sitting on the bench chomping at the bit to get on the field.
New Orleans said what everyone wanted to hear about post-Super Bowl preparation, but the Saints have lost their edge from last year and as you wrote Doug, opposing teams are playing Cover 4, taking away big plays."
I acknowledged Chris is correct about the top teams but what about the bottom-feeders. "A new crop is emerging with Carolina a bad football team and Buffalo was already in the lead seat. But teams like St. Louis, Kansas City, Detroit and even Oakland have shown they have better players and are more willing, more often to play four quarters."
Astute observation from insider- Kurt Warner made his debut as FOX analyst and he offered one nugget for real football fans. Warner said it has become commonplace for quarterbacks that have run play called on early downs to audible out of it to one step drop hitch pass to receiver who is singled up on the outside. Could be wrong but I believe New England and Tom Brady made this popular.
Don't worry, be happy- The aforementioned Saints are playing almost bored. Either they are emotionally spent or trying too hard to play it cool like they have everything under control. Opposing teams have taken away New Orleans big plays and the offensive line play is no longer at high level. Not sure what is up with coach Sean Payton. The same coach that tries a surprise onside kick in the Super Bowl punts with 5:19 in the game trailing by 10 points and holding just one timeout.
Rub a little dirt on it, you'll be fine- After the New York Giants came apart at the seams in loss to Tennessee, Bill Cowher was being fitting for new Giants cap as 2011 head coach. Well nothing like a pass rush, increased intensity and confidence to make coach Tom Coughlin go from buffoon to the man in charge. The G-Men offensive coaches had a splendid game plan in working the league's worst defense in Houston and toyed with the Texans in a blowout.
Motor City Madmen- Detroit was a popular wager among sharps and delivered not only a rare win but a massacre of the Rams 44-6. With Calvin Johnson, Jahvid Best, Ndamukong Suh and if Matthew Stafford can stay healthy, the Lions finally have building blocks to start restoring integrity like the Ford Motor Company. Detroit has five wins in last 46 games and now twice they've scored 44 points when doing so.
Ball Hogs- Atlanta is 7-1 and 6-2 ATS since the end of last season and is averaging 17 more offensive plays per game than their opponents this season.
Special Teams my @*&#- If Miami can fire their special teams coach after one Monday night nightmare, what is San Diego waiting for? The Chargers have three losses and each one directly points to special teams' failure. San Diego had consecutive punts blocked which led Oakland scoring nine points, roughly the margin of victory in 35-27 finale.
While statistics and numbers are the lifeblood of any sharp bettor, you have to know what you are looking at. San Diego might have the top-ranked total offense and defense, however the stop troops no longer have player-makers (go ahead, name the last time Shawne Merriman made a big play) and of the five teams they've faced, Oakland has the highest ranked total offense at 14th, with the rest at No. 20 or lower. Some TV analysts will insist the Chargers roster is too talented to being playing like this, a closer inspection proves otherwise and they should be a cautious wager.
This glass is half full- Glad to hear the team president of the San Francisco 0-and-Niners is saying he still believes the team can win the NFC West. Correct me if I'm wrong but didn't the undaunted San Fran prez Jed York also say the recession has been over for a year? The loss to Philadelphia summed up Alex Smith's NFL career, a mixture of good and terrible plays.
Quick Hit- After starting 11-4-1 UNDER the first week, the OVER is 34-26 since.
I'll take my guys against yours anytime- The New York Jets have better offensive and defensive lines than the Minnesota Vikings and Rex Ryan is a better coach than Brad Childress, which is why the New Jersey host team won the Monday night game. Could be wrong but my guess is Brett Favre will play very similar to how he played Monday night the rest of the season.
Props to corner Antonio Cromartie for his performance against Randy Moss. Coach Ryan was on target in thinking Moss would only be good to Favre in go-routes and deep jump ball heaves and the 6'2 Cromartie didn't have to worry about Moss running precise pass routes, he just had to play street ball defense, running with Moss and fighting for the ball.
Elimination Bowl- Despite no teams in the NFL standing above the crowd, the loser of Dallas and Minnesota this week figures to be all but dead with 1-4 season start.