NFL Quick Hits – Week 6
By Doug Upstone
"The NFL is a quarterback's league"
We hear it every week, we believe it, yet we don't always pay attention to it. There were two very distinctive examples of this playing out on Sunday.
Aaron Rodgers of the Green Bay Packers is heralded as a great young quarterback. His current situation is completely different than what was presumed to have occurred before the season began, as Green Bay was thought to be legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but with eight of the Pack's top 15 defensive players out and their starting tight end and running back gone for the year, Green Bay is looking at a .500 2010 campaign.
These facts aside, for the accolades about Rodgers, after Sunday's overtime loss to Miami, he is 6-13 and 7-11-1 ATS in games decided by seven or fewer points. That is quarterback leading team to one score or in his case not doing so.
Over to New England. Granted, comparing Tom Brady to Rodgers is like staying at Caesar's Palace suite compared to Bally's regular room. Think about what Brady had to work with Sunday against arguably one of the best defenses in football against Baltimore. The running backs for the Patriots are BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead. Off the top of my head, can't think of a team that has at least by presumed ability, two worse running backs.
With Randy Moss out of the picture, that means opposing teams will pay more attention to Wes Welker in the slot, leaving retread Deion Branch, two rookie tight ends (both have huge upsides), along with Julian Edelman and Brandon Tate to throw to. Trailing Baltimore by 10 in the fourth quarter, Brady and this collection of gypsies manufactured an overtime win over the Ravens. Yes quarterbacking does matter.
QB Numbers- If you place Rodgers against his contemporaries this is what you will find in touchdown difference games.
Jay Cutler 17-9, 9-16-1 ATS
Joe Flacco 6-9, 6-8-1 ATS
Matt Ryan 11-6, 9-8 ATS
Cutler comes thru in the clutch, but doesn't necessarily play well the entire game. Flacco is a bit of a risk at this point for team with Super Bowl aspirations and Ryan is on target to be Brady-type.
Bay of pigs - Keeping with the theme of quarterbacks, Alex Smith and Jason Campbell showed Sunday why they will never be elite quarterbacks. No question the continual change in offenses stunted their growth as signal callers, having so many voices in your head over the years creates a certain level of confusion. Nonetheless, you can't throw the ball when the receiver has already made his break or get nervous feet in the pocket when pass rushers are near (not close) you and pull the ball down. San Francisco or Oakland are not going anywhere anytime soon and their situation is exacerbated by coaches that probably wouldn't have been hired under normal circumstances.
Mike Singletary and Tom Cable were hired as replacement coaches and it isn't a stretch to think that either would not have been hired going thru a normal job interview process. Singletary is 14-17 and 16-11-4 ATS and has appeared overmatched in the role as favorite with coaching changes and player complaints. The Cable guy is 11-23 and 15-19 ATS and is very much like a golfer who talks a good game, but never backs it up.
Cowardly Lions - The Detroit Lions lost their 24th straight road game on Sunday, which happens to be the second time since 2001 they have had such a streak of ineptness. Putting the two streaks together, the passive Lions have been a better bet than one might imagine at 20-26-2 ATS. Get the calendar out Detroit fans and circle Nov. 14, when the Lions travel to Buffalo.
Falcons Floundering - Since playing three sharp games to start the season, including handing the defending Super Bowl champs their initial loss of the season, Atlanta squeaked by San Francisco and Cleveland and was blasted by Philadelphia. The Falcons are not hitting the explosive plays on offense and without a strong pass rush, they rank 28th in yards per pass attempt allowed. Coach Mike Smith and his staff have three home games and a bye the next month to tighten everything up.
You call this genius? Mike Martz is probably the smartest offensive mind in professional football since Bill Walsh, but sees his drawn plays as works of art, without taking into account the human element. Jay Cutler might have the quick release of Kurt Warner, but doesn't have the offensive line, wide receivers or the apparent ability to process information like the former Rams Super Bowl quarterback and get the ball out on time. On third down, the Bears kept using four receiver sets and Seattle HC Pete Carroll countered by overloading one side of Chicago offensive line with three defenders against two blockers and the Bears ended up 0-12 on third down and were outplayed as six-point home favorites vs. Seattle who arrived in Windy City with 2-12 and 3-11 ATS record in last 14 road games.
Stupid is as stupid does - The San Diego Chargers and Dallas Cowboys are both in the top four in the NFL in total offense and defense and are combined 3-8 SU and ATS. It's time commentators to stop talking about "the talent level" these teams have and instead look deeper and focus on the details. Both teams have a few players that are immensely talented but have a much larger number of players that don't pay attention to details, taking stupid penalties, lack the discipline to carry out assignments on defense or special teams and head coaches that don't demand excellence. A galaxy of stars doesn't make greatness.
Trendy thought - The past two weeks, teams that were ranked in top 5 in yards per points are 7-1 ATS (teams on byes didn't play). This week Pittsburgh, New England, Pittsburgh and Arizona all qualify (Jets on bye).
Good Luck-Bad Luck – The New York Jets had no business covering at Denver, yet they did despite being out-gained and out-played until the huge pass interference call and L.T.'s subsequent touchdown run with 1:13 left. Indianapolis should have easily covered against Washington but three rare lost fumbles kept the Redskins in the game and gave Colts backers a push or loss.