NFL
Buffalo (7-8, 9-6 ATS) at Philadelphia (7-8 SU and ATS)
A non-conference matchup with no implications whatsoever – other than the winner finishing at .500 – takes place when the Bills travel to Lincoln Financial Field to face the Eagles.
Buffalo, which two weeks ago had strong playoff hopes, fell to the New York Giants 38-21 last week as a one-point home underdog. It was the second consecutive SU and ATS loss for the Bills.
Philadelphia played spoiler in New Orleans last week, dimming the Saints’ slim playoff hopes with a 38-23 road victory as a three-point pup. The Eagles have followed a three-game slide with back-to-back upset wins, both on the road.
Despite the Bills’ rough run lately, they still hold positive ATS trends of 20-6-1 against teams with a losing record and 7-3-1 following a SU loss of more than 14 points. But they are 3-4 ATS this season on the highway, 2-5 ATS as a road pup and 0-4 ATS in their last four season finales.
Buffalo, which got blanked 8-0 at Cleveland in its most recent road game, averages a paltry 9.6 points and 266 yards per game as a visitor this season.
The Eagles, with QB Donovan McNabb seemingly healthy again, are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts and 6-3 ATS this season in non-division play. However, they are just 4-12-1 ATS in their last 17 as a chalk and 2-7 ATS laying points at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA
Carolina (6-9, 7-8 ATS) at Tampa Bay (9-6, 8-6-1 ATS)
The Panthers cap another disappointing season with a trip to Raymond James Stadium for an NFC South battle against the division champion Buccaneers.
Carolina, considered a playoff contender in the preseason before injuries ravaged its QB corps, lost to Dallas last week 20-13. On the bright side, the Panthers got the cash as a 10½-point underdog, their second straight spread-cover.
Tampa Bay, already locked in to the NFC’s No. 4 playoff seed, lost at San Francisco 21-19 as a 6½-point favorite last Sunday. QB Jeff Garcia was pulled before halftime, having already gone 12 of 20 for 196 yards and a TD and helping the Bucs to a 13-7 lead. Despite the final score, Tampa Bay dominated statistically, with a 434-213 yardage edge and a 34:29-25:31 time-of-possession advantage.
The Panthers have covered in back-to-back games for only the second time this season, and they’re on further ATS rolls of 5-1 in December, 4-1 in Week 17 and 9-4 against the NFC. But after starting the season with a 4-0 SU and ATS road record, the Panthers have dropped three in a row SU and ATS on the highway, including a 37-6 drubbing at Jacksonville in their last trip to Florida.
The Buccaneers, likely to again rest key players, are 5-2 SU and ATS in their last seven games. Additionally, they are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 against the NFC South, 7-2 against losing teams, 7-2 in regular-season finales, 5-1-1 at home and 17-4-1 as a home underdog.
The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine meetings in this series, including Tampa Bay’s 20-7 win at Carolina as a three-point pup in September.
The straight-up winner is a perfect 15-0 in Bucs games this season, and the winner cashed in Carolina’s first 14 games before last week’s contest against Dallas.
The under is 9-3 in Carolina’s last 12 starts overall, 7-2 in Tampa’s last nine Week 17 games and 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in this series, including 2-0 in the last two.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY and UNDER
Cincinnati (6-9 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-14, 5-7-3 ATS)
The Bengals travel to South Florida to finish off a disappointing season against the hapless Dolphins.
Cincinnati halted an 0-3 ATS slide by beating Cleveland 19-14 as a one-point home pup last week, putting a big dent in the rival Browns’ playoff hopes in the process.
Miami was unable to build on its first win of the year, falling 28-7 to the infallible Patriots last week. However, the Dolphins did manage their second straight cover for the first time this season, cashing as a 22-point road ‘dog. The Dolphins got a third-quarter TD and held the Patriots scoreless in the second half, the first team all year to turn that trick.
The Bengals are 3-6 ATS in their last nine starts (4-5 SU) and 1-4 ATS in December games. They are on further negative ATS slumps of 0-4 as a road chalk, 0-5 following a SU win and 0-5 following a spread-cover.
The Dolphins are a pathetic 10-26-1 ATS in their last 37 home games (2-5 ATS this season) and 7-19-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.
Cincinnati has stayed under the total in five straight games overall and three straight on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Dallas (13-2, 9-6 ATS) at Washington (8-7, 6-7-2 ATS)
The Cowboys, who wrapped up the NFC’s No. 1 playoff seed last week, head to FedEx Field to face the division-rival Redskins, who have stunningly turned around their season to the point that they’re in a win-and-your-in situation for the playoffs.
Dallas fended off Carolina 20-13 last Saturday, failing to cover as a 10½-point road chalk. RB Marion Barber rushed for 110 yards and a TD, and QB Tony Romo was 28 of 42 for 257 yards and a TD, with one INT. The Cowboys dominated time of possession (39 minutes to 21 minutes) and total yards (405-216).
Washington stunned Minnesota last week 32-21 as a six-point road pup, posting its third straight win and cover to stay alive in the playoff chase. Todd Collins, the 36-year-old journeyman QB subbing for the injured Jason Cambpell, was a sterling 22 of 29 for 254 yards and two TDs, with no turnovers. Washington’s defense stuffed star rookie RB Adrian Peterson (nine carries, 27 yards) and forced two INTs and a fumbled handoff exchange from QB Tarvaris Jackson.
The Cowboys, who are on an 0-3 ATS slide (2-1 SU), have said they will sit WR Terrell Owens (ankle) and will likely limit several other key players, including QB Tony Romo (thumb). That said, they are 7-3-1 ATS on their last 11 road trips, including 4-0 ATS as a road pup. On the negative side, Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC, 0-4 ATS in Week 17 contests and 0-5 ATS in its last five December starts.
The Redskins, who were on a 1-6 ATS plunge (2-5 SU) before their current surge, are still mired in pointspread downturns of 2-6-2 at FedEx, 2-7-1 as a home chalk and 3-7-1 following a SU win. However, they are on positive ATS runs of 7-2-1 against teams with a winning mark and 4-1 against the NFC, including covering an 11-point spread in a 28-23 loss at Dallas last month.
Dallas is 6-4 SU and ATS the last 10 in this series, but Washington has covered the last two and four of the last five. Also, the ‘dog is an eye-popping 17-4 against the line in the last 21 meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: WASHINGTON
Detroit (7-8, 7-8 ATS) at Green Bay (12-3, 11-3-1 ATS)
The Lions, seemingly destined for the playoffs before a late-season meltdown, travel to Lambeau Field to take on the Packers, who have already clinched the NFC’s No. 2 seed.
Detroit held off Kansas City 25-20 last week as a six-point home chalk, finally halting its season-killing six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS).
Green Bay gave away its shot at the NFC’s top playoff seed, getting hammered by rival Chicago 35-7 in bitter cold conditions as a nine-point road favorite, the Packers’ second loss to the Bears this season. The loss halted a 2-0 SU and ATS uptick for the Pack.
The Lions, despite the win over the Chiefs, are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games, including 0-3 ATS on the highway. This season, Detroit is 2-5 ATS on the road and 4-7 ATS catching points. The Lions are also 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 starts against the NFC North. A lone positive note for Detroit is its 5-1 ATS mark over the past six years in Week 17.
The Packers, meanwhile, are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games and 12-4-2 ATS against the NFC. They are on further positive ATS runs of 7-3 inside the division, 6-0-2 following an ATS loss, 5-1 laying points and 5-1-1 at Lambeau.
The home team is 15-5-1 ATS in the last 21 in this series, and the Lions are 2-7 ATS on their last seven trips to Green Bay. The Packers are 8-2 SU (6-4 ATS) in the last 10 meetings in this series.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
Jacksonville (11-4 SU and ATS) at Houston (7-8 SU and ATS)
The red-hot Jaguars, headed to the playoffs as a wild card with the fifth seed, cap the regular season at Reliant Stadium against the AFC South rival Texans, who are seeking their first-ever .500 finish.
Jacksonville ripped Oakland 49-11 last week as a 14-point home favorite for its third consecutive win and cover. QB David Garrard was just 11 of 18 for 199 yards, but he threw two TDs (and one INT) before giving way to Quinn Gray later in the game. The Jaguars’ defense forced rookie QB JaMarcus Russell into three INTs and a lost fumble, and allowed just 215 yards. RB Fred Taylor had seven carries for 111 yards, 62 of which came on a TD jaunt.
Houston fell to defending Super Bowl champ Indianapolis 38-15 last Sunday as a 6½-point road pup, halting a 2-0 SU and ATS surge.
The Jaguars are on a 7-0 ATS spree (6-1 SU), with the only straight-up setback coming in a 28-25 loss at Indianapolis earlier this month. This season, they are 6-1 ATS on the highway and 6-2 ATS as a chalk, including a 37-17 rout of Houston as 6½-point home chalk in October. On the negative side, though, Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in its last five trips to Houston.
The straight-up winner is 29-2 ATS in Jacksonville’s last 31 games, dating to the 2006 season opener.
The Texans are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games against the AFC, including 1-3 ATS this season in division play. However, they are 7-2 ATS at home (5-2 ATS this year), 10-3 ATS at Reliant Stadium against teams with a winning record, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games in this series (5-5 SU). Finally, Houston is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 December starts.
The over is on runs of 8-0-1 for Jacksonville and 9-2 for Houston in December games. However, six of the last eight series meetings have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
New Orleans (7-8, 6-9 ATS) at Chicago (6-9 SU and ATS)
The Saints, barely clinging to their playoff hopes, travel to Soldier Field to face the Bears in a rematch of last season’s NFC Championship Game.
New Orleans blew an opportunity to enhance its playoff chances with a 38-23 loss to Philadelphia last week as a three-point home ‘dog, ending a 2-0 SU and ATS run. QB Drew Brees aired the ball out 45 times, completing 30 for 289 yards, but he had no TDs and one INT. The Saints’ defense allowed Donovan McNabb and Co. to rack up 435 total yards, compared to 346 for New Orleans.
Chicago pulled off a stunning 35-7 upset of NFC North champion Green Bay in frigid temperatures, cashing as a nine-point home dog for its second straight spread-cover. Defense and special teams paced the Bears, as LB Brian Urlacher had an 85-yard INT return – one of two Brett Favre INTs – and Chicago blocked two punts. Offensively, RB Adrian Peterson had 30 carries for 102 yards and a TD.
The Saints, who lost at Chicago 39-14 as a 2½-point pup in last year’s NFC title game, are 5-1 ATS in their last six as a road chalk and 4-1 ATS in their last five roadies overall. They are also 4-1 ATS following an ATS loss. On a negative note, New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 regular-season finales.
Although they won and covered last week, the Bears are still just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home starts (2-5 ATS this season). Furthermore, Chicago followed its first five wins this season with a SU and ATS loss. Finally, Lovie Smith’s squad is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 overall, including 3-6 ATS in non-division games.
The over is 14-5 in the last 19 games at Soldier Field, including last year’s NFC Championship Game, and 7-2 for New Orleans in its last nine overall, with the last four in a row hurdling the total for the Saints.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Pittsburgh (10-5, 8-7 ATS) at Baltimore (4-11, 2-13 ATS)
The Steelers, who are fighting for the third seed in the AFC, head to M&T Bank Stadium to face the division-rival Ravens, who can hardly remember what it’s like to win a game.
Pittsburgh, laying nine points on the road, pounded St. Louis 41-24 in a Thursday night matchup to halt an 0-2 SU and ATS skid. The Steelers lost star RB Willie Parker early to a season-ending broken leg, but QB Ben Roethlisberger picked up the slack with a 16-for-20 passing effort for 261 yards and three TDS, with no INTs, earning a perfect 158.3 rating. RB Najeh Davenport added 24 carries for 123 yards and a TD. Pittsburgh won the turnover battle 2-0 and dominated time of possession (36:16-23:44).
The Steelers need to win today and have the Chargers lose in Oakland to secure the No. 3 seed.
Baltimore, with a banged-up defense and a hapless offense, traveled to Seattle last week and got blasted 27-6 as a 12½-point pup for its ninth straight setback (1-8 ATS). Rookie QB Troy Smith, subbing for injured Kyle Boller, went 16 of 33 for 199 yards and a TD. Smith didn’t throw a pick, but he lost two fumbles.
The Steelers, coming in on a 2-5 ATS plunge, haven’t covered in back-to-back games since routing Baltimore 38-7 at home as a 9½-point favorite on Nov. 5. They are on further negative ATS funks of 1-4 following a spread-cover and 1-5 against the AFC. But Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in division play this year, 9-3 ATS in December and 5-2 ATS in its last seven season finales.
The Ravens carry into this game negative season-long ATS trends of 2-5 at home, 1-6 catching points and 0-5 in AFC North play. They are also 1-11 ATS in their last 12 against the AFC and 3-14 ATS in their last 17 starts overall dating to last season. On a positive note, although these teams have split their last 10 meetings, Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings (3-2 SU).
The over is 9-4 in the last 13 in this series, including Pittsburgh’s November win, which eclipsed the total of 36.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH
Seattle (10-5, 9-6 ATS) at Atlanta (3-12, 7-8 ATS)
The Seahawks, locked into the NFC’s No. 3 playoff seed, travel cross-country to the Georgia Dome to take on a Falcons team that can’t reach the end of the season soon enough.
Seattle routed Baltimore 27-6 last week as a 12½-point home chalk, moving to 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven starts.
Atlanta went to Arizona last week and nearly notched its fourth win of the season, but befitting of their miserable season, the Falcons fell short 30-27 in overtime, their sixth consecutive loss. On the bright side, they halted an 0-5 ATS slide by covering the 11-point spread, also ending a run of five straight double-digit defeats.
The Seahawks, who are likely to play it safe with their starters this week, are 5-2 ATS as an underdog (1-2 ATS as a short this season). They hold positive ATS marks of 6-1 against teams with a losing record, 6-1 against the NFC and 4-1 following a spread-cover.
The straight-up winner is 14-1 ATS in Seattle’s games this season.
The Falcons are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 at the dome (2-5 ATS this season), and they are 2-5 ATS both in their last seven as a chalk and in their last seven December starts.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
San Francisco (5-10 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (9-6, 11-4 ATS)
The 49ers make a lengthy road trip to cap their disappointing season, taking on the Browns, who can still end up with the AFC’s final wild-card berth, though they have no control over that fate.
San Francisco topped playoff-bound Tampa Bay 21-19 last week as a 6½-point home ‘dog, the first time all season the 49ers posted back-to-back spread-covers. Unheralded QB Shaun Hill completed just 11 of 24 passes for 123 yards, but three of those completions went for TDs. He had one INT as the 49ers won consecutive games for the first time since starting the season 2-0.
Cleveland blew its opportunity to seal a playoff berth last week at Cincinnati, falling behind 19-0 at halftime and losing 19-14 as a one-point favorite. Browns QB Derek Anderson had by far his worst outing of the season, going 29 of 48 for 251 yards with two TDs but four INTs.
Because of the loss to the Bengals, the Browns’ playoff fate is out of their hands. Win or lose, the only way they reach the postseason is if Tennessee falls at Indianapolis tonight.
This season, the 49ers are 5-9 ATS as pups, 2-5 ATS on the highway and 2-6 ATS in non-division games. They are on further negative spread runs of 1-5 as a road ‘dog, 1-5 following a spread-cover and 3-7 in their last 10 overall.
The Browns are 7-1 ATS as chalk this season, the lone blemish coming last week against the Bengals. Still among the best bets in the league, Cleveland is 6-1 ATS at home and 7-2 ATS in non-division play. In addition, the Browns are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 following a SU loss, 6-1 following an ATS loss and 8-2 in their last 10 overall.
The under is on multiple runs for Cleveland of 5-0 overall, 6-0 in December games, 4-0 laying points and 9-2 as a home chalk. Also, San Francisco averages a league-worst 14.1 points per game and has scored 10 points or less six times this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CLEVELAND and UNDER
Minnesota (8-7, 7-6-2 ATS) at Denver (6-9, 4-11 ATS)
The Vikings, who must not only win but get some help to reach the playoffs, travel to Invesco Field at Mile High for a date with the Broncos, one of the league’s worst bets over the past two seasons.
Minnesota could have wrapped up a wild-card spot last week, but instead got punished by Washington 32-21 as a six-point home favorite, its second straight ATS setback. QB Tarvaris Jackson (25-for-41, 220 yards, 1 TD) played a part in three first-half turnovers, with two INTs and a bad handoff exchange that led to a lost fumble. RB Adrian Peterson was shut down, with just nine carries for 27 yards.
Denver assured itself of a losing season, getting belted by San Diego 23-3 as a nine-point road underdog on Monday night, its second consecutive SU and ATS loss. QB Jay Cutler (14 of 32, 155 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs) had a miserable night, and the Broncos mustered just 225 total yards and had the ball for just 23:17.
The Vikings, who need a win and a Washington loss to Dallas to gain the NFC’s final wild-card spot, are still 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games. However, they’ve failed to cover in back-to-back games as a favorite, and they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven regular-season finales.
The Broncos have been an ATS disaster recently, recording the following negative pointspread trends: 9-22 overall dating to the 2006 season opener, 3-10 at Mile High, 2-5 as an underdog this year, 2-7 in non-division play this year, 2-10 against teams with a winning record and 4-12 following an ATS loss. Denver’s one positive: It is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven as a home pup.
For Denver, the over is 11-4 this season, 11-1 in its last 12 home starts (6-1 this year) and 10-1 following a SU loss. For Minnesota, the over is on runs of 4-0 as a road chalk, 5-0 following a SU loss and 12-2-1 following an ATS loss.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (10-5 SU and ATS) at Oakland (4-11, 7-8 ATS)
The Chargers head up the California coast to McAfee Coliseum to take on the rival Raiders, knowing with a win they’re guaranteed the AFC’s coveted third seed
San Diego tamed the Broncos 23-3 last week laying nine points at home to earn its fifth straight win and cover, with four of the wins coming by double digits. QB Philip Rivers went 17 of 25 for 189 yards and a TD, with no turnovers, and RB LaDainian Tomlinson had 19 carries for 107 yards and a TD before exiting the game in the third quarter. The Chargers won the turnover battle 3-1 and dominated time of possession (36:43-23:17), and they allowed just 225 total yards.
Oakland was flattened at Jacksonville 49-11 as a 14-point pup for its third consecutive loss (1-2 ATS). No. 1 overall pick JaMarcus Russell saw his most extensive action of the season and looked like the rookie he is, going 7 of 23 for 83 yards and one TD, with three INTs and a lost fumble. One good note was the effort of RB Dominic Rhodes, who had 27 carries for 115 yards subbing for the injured Justin Fargas.
The Chargers are 9-3 ATS as a chalk and 4-1 ATS in the AFC West this year, including a 28-14 rout of the Raiders as a 9½-point home chalk in October. San Diego has defeated Oakland eight consecutive times, going 7-1 ATS, including 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three visits to McAfee Coliseum. In fact, the favorite in this series is on an 8-2 ATS run.
San Diego is 17-5-3 ATS in its last 25 division contests.
The under is 14-5 in San Diego’s last 19 AFC West games and 10-3 in Oakland’s last 13 division contests. Also, the last six meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO and UNDER
St. Louis (3-12, 4-11 ATS) at Arizona (7-8, 7-7-1 ATS)
The Rams and the Cardinals finish out the string with an NFC West matchup at University of Phoenix Stadium.
St. Louis lost to Pittsburgh 41-24 last week catching nine points at home, the third straight loss for the Rams (1-2 ATS). Meanwhile, Arizona fended off Atlanta 30-27 in overtime at home, but failed to cover an 11-point spread. It was the third straight non-cover for the Cardinals (1-2 SU).
The Rams are on ATS plunges of 3-8 as underdogs, 3-7 following a double-digit home loss and 2-5 against the NFC West. They are also 4-11 ATS in their last 15 starts following a SU setback. On the bright side, St. Louis is 6-0 ATS against teams with a losing record, 6-1 ATS in Week 17 and 5-2 ATS in December contests.
The Cardinals, who have given up an average of 33 points in their last three games, are 1-4 ATS against teams with a losing record, 1-4 ATS following a SU victory and 0-4 ATS against the NFC. However, they’re 4-0 ATS in their last four regular-season finales and 6-3 ATS in their last nine following an ATS loss.
Arizona beat St. Louis 34-31 in October but failed to cover as a 3½-point road chalk as the Rams scored a touchdown and converted a two-point conversion in the final minute to secure the backdoor cover. The underdog has cashed in eight straight meetings, and the road team is on a 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS run.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ST. LOUIS
Kansas City (4-11, 6-8-1 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (3-12, 5-9-1 ATS)
Two teams aiming to close out miserable seasons on a somewhat positive note square off when the Chiefs travel to the Meadowlands to face the Jets.
Kansas City, winless for more than two months now, had to settle for a spread-cover in a 25-20 loss at Detroit as a six-point pup. That extended the Chiefs’ losing skid to eight in a row (2-6 ATS).
For the second straight week, New York also had to be satisfied with an ATS win after losing to Tennessee 10-6 catching nine points on the road. The Jets have dropped three in a row (2-1 ATS).
Despite their poor record, the Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the highway. Among myriad negative ATS trends, Kansas City is 1-4 after a SU loss, 1-4-1 following a spread-cover and 0-4 against the AFC.
This season, the Jets are 2-4-1 ATS at home, 0-2-1 ATS as a chalk and 3-5 ATS in non-division games. But they are on positive ATS stretches of 4-2 overall, 5-0 following a SU loss, 6-1 in December games, 5-1 in Week 17 and 4-1 against the AFC.
The under is 7-3 in Kansas City’s last 10 road trips and 12-5-1 in its last 18 as a road ‘dog. For New York, the under is on streaks of a 5-1 overall, 4-0 following a spread-cover and 6-1 in December.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
Tennessee (9-6, 7-7-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (13-2, 9-6 ATS)
The Titans face a win-and-your-in, lose-and-your-out situation in a prime-time matchup at the RCA Dome against the defending Super Bowl champion Colts, who are already locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed.
Tennessee fended off the New York Jets 10-6 last week as a nine-point favorite, moving to 3-1 in its last four games (2-2 ATS). QB Vince Young had another subpar performance, going 12 of 22 for 166 yards with no TDs, one INT and three fumbles (one lost). However, RB Lendale White stepped up with 103 rushing yards, while the Titans’ defense also came up big, sacking QB Chad Pennington six times and forcing two INTs while allowing only a second-quarter TD.
In a meaningless game for Tony Dungy’s squad, Indianapolis beat up Houston 38-15 as a 6½-point home chalk for its sixth consecutive victory (3-3 ATS). QB Peyton Manning, in likely his last significant action before the playoffs, was sensational, completing 28 of 35 for 311 yards and three TDs, with no INTs. The Colts racked up 458 total yards and allowed just 299, forcing three INTs.
The Titans, who make the playoffs with a win but give Cleveland the final AFC spot with a loss, are 4-1 ATS this season in the highly competitive AFC South, a division that would send three teams to the playoffs if Tennessee can pull off the win. Going back to last year, Jeff Fisher’s troops are on a 7-1 ATS run in division contests and 10-4 ATS spurt on the road. On the negative side, the Titans are on ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 1-6 following a SU win and 6-13 as a chalk.
The Colts are a bit banged up and, with nothing to play for, could rest several players today. Nevertheless, it’s interesting to note that Indy is on ATS tears of 13-6 overall, 7-2 at home (5-2 this year), 5-1 against winning teams, 8-2 following a victory and 4-0 as a home pup. In fact, this marks just the second time since Week 1 of the 1999 season – Manning’s second in the NFL – that Indy will take to the RCA Dome as an underdog. The only other time was in Week 8 of this season, when the Colts lost to New England 24-20, but cashed as a five-point pup.
On the negative side of things, Indy is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine inside the division (1-3 ATS this season) and 3-8 ATS in its last 11 December starts.
Indy edged Tennessee 22-20 earlier this season as a seven-point road favorite. The Titans are on a 3-0 ATS run in the series (all as an underdog), but the Colts have taken eight of the last 10 straight-up.
The last five meetings have stayed under the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE
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What bettors need to know: Titans at Colts
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Titans in control
The Titans entered last year’s final game needing three other teams to lose, combined with their own victory, in order to make the playoffs. They didn’t make it, but it’s a lot simpler this time around.
Tennessee just needs a win in Indianapolis to secure a postseason berth for the first time in four seasons. Despite the Colts’ insistence that they will play a weakened team in a game that means nothing for them, defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch warned that the Titans should expect a tough ride.
"I think we would be making a big mistake by thinking we're going to go in there and beat up on some backups," he told the Associated Press.
"Indianapolis is the defending world champ. That says a lot about their depth. They've been banged up for a good part of the year, playing with some backup guys.”
The Colts have dominated the Titans in recent seasons, winning seven of the last eight meetings. But Tennessee has managed to keep the score within three points or less in the last three meetings.
"What we've got to do is just stay focused and play our game,” quarterback Vince Young told the AP. “I really feel like we match up with the guys pretty good. All we've got to do is just not think about what's ahead and just think about that game on Sunday.”
A Tennessee loss means the Browns will make the playoffs. The team that advances will face either San Diego or Pittsburgh in a wild card game next week.
Sorgi to see time
Indianapolis coach Tony Dungy has remained tightlipped about his plans for the Tennessee game, but he is certain that backup quarterback Jim Sorgi will be featured prominently in a game for the first time in two seasons.
Peyton Manning will make the start before handing over the reigns to his backup.
"I know Jim Sorgi's going to play at least a half,” coach Dungy told Indianapolis Star this week. “I don't know how early he'll get in the game, or if he'll get in the first half.”
The Colts have found themselves in a similar situation twice before. They had secured their playoff spot and seeding before the final game during both the 2004 and 2005 campaigns. Manning played the first series and then spent the rest of the game on the bench on both occasions. The same was true of several other front-line starters.
Injuries could also impact Dungy’s decision making. He already ruled out defensive tackle Raheem Brock, tight end Ben Utecht, cornerback Tim Jennings and offensive tackle Ryan Diem.
Defensive end Robert Mathis and safety Antoine Bethea are both doubtful.
While Dungy is unsure of his starting lineup, he is expecting a strong performance from whoever takes the field.
"You coach your team and you really can't worry about anybody else,” Dungy said. “We've got to get ourselves ready to go and just play the best we can and get ourselves ready for the playoffs.”
Harrison returns
The Colts have one other piece of injury news that could have a major impact on this game. Wide receiver Marvin Harrison is expected to play against Tennessee, his first appearance since the Oct. 22 game at Jacksonville.
The eight-time Pro Bowl receiver injured his knee in late September and missed 11 games, including the last nine straight. Dungy told the Indianapolis Star that Harrison “felt good” in practice this week and that he took repetitions with the No.1 offense on Thursday and Friday.
"He's a guy that if he didn't play this week, I wouldn't be worried about him,” Dungy said. “If he's feeling good and healthy two weeks from now, I'd think he'd have a great game."
Harrison has 247 yards and one touchdown in five appearances this season. He registered a combined 201 yards and two TDs in two games against the Titans last year.
Head to head
The Colts have won seven of their last eight meetings with Tennessee, but the Titans have covered the spread in the last three. Five consecutive series games have gone under the total.
Indianapolis is 9-6 ATS overall this season, while the Titans are 7-8.
How hard will it be to qualify?
Tennessee and Washington are in the playoffs if they win, but others needing help might not get it if opponents rest starters.
Two will be sixth.
Three more will be deep-sixed.
Such is the drama on this, the final day of the NFL's regular season. Five teams are playing for two remaining playoff spots -- the No. 6 seedings in the NFC and AFC.
Tennessee and Washington control their own destinies. If they win, they're in.
Minnesota, New Orleans and Cleveland need various degrees of help to keep their seasons going.
The unknown: How hard will opponents who are already either in or out of the playoffs be trying to win. For instance, when second-seeded Indianapolis plays host to Tennessee, will the Colts keep Peyton Manning in the game and risk injury to their star quarterback, or replace him with seldom-seen backup Jim Sorgi?
The difference means the world to the Cleveland Browns, who need to have the Titans lose to make the playoffs.
"We certainly want to continue playing well," Colts Coach Tony Dungy told reporters who cover the Titans. "We want to win the ballgame. We'd like to finish 6-0 in the division. We'd like to finish 7-1 at home. But more than anything else, we'd like to keep improving."
Colts rookie receiver Anthony Gonzalez, who played at Ohio State, said he has been getting a lot of phone and text messages from folks in his old stomping ground urging him to play as hard as he possibly can tonight -- whatever it takes to help the Browns' cause.
"They all want me to play my heart out," Gonzalez told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. "One of the things about being over here, you're pretty isolated from knowing what's going on in Cleveland. But, clearly, I know the mind-set over there, how fans want us to win. But for me, I'm a lot more concerned with doing my job and playing well.
"I'm certainly going to give it all I have, but no more so than any other game."
If the odds of making the playoffs are slim for the Browns, they're even thinner for the Saints. Not only does New Orleans need to win at Chicago in a rematch of last season's NFC title game, but it needs a Minnesota loss at Denver and Washington to fall to Dallas.
"It's difficult that you've got to count on other things to happen," Saints Coach Sean Payton said. "We had an opportunity to put ourselves in position to be sitting here today and in control of it. But we weren't able to do that, so it's disappointing."
The Vikings have an ever-so-slightly easier path. They're in if they beat the Broncos and the Redskins lose. Minnesota and Washington both play afternoon games, so it's natural to think the Vikings will be watching the scoreboard.
Vikings Coach Brad Childress said he has no plans to ask the Broncos not to show the scores of other games.
"They certainly know what's at stake and the way it is today," Childress said of his players. "There is going to be a time where the scores are going to flash up there, and I'm sure somebody is going to whisper."
From a whisper to a scream? Not likely for the Vikings. Washington has won three in a row and everything points to the Cowboys resting some key players as they prepare for the postseason. Terrell Owens is out because of a high ankle sprain, center Andre Gurode probably won't play because of a bum knee, and quarterback Tony Romo has a sore thumb.
The Vikings are dubious the Redskins will see the best the Cowboys have to offer.
"You've already clinched home-field advantage," Minnesota cornerback Antoine Winfield said in an interview on KFAN radio. "What you're trying not to do is get any of your starters hurt. I think they'll probably take the same approach. Of course they'll try to win the game, but I don't think they'll have enough to beat Washington."
Then again, the Redskins have beaten the Cowboys only three times in their last 20 games, dating to mid-season 1997. There's little if any doubt in Washington's locker room, though, that this will be the fourth such victory.
"As long as you don't quit, anything can happen," receiver Santana Moss said. "And I don't think this team has any quit in us."
Playoff scenarios for Week 17:
AFC
* CLINCHED: New England, East Division and home-field advantage; Indianapolis, South Division and a first-round bye; Pittsburgh, North Division; San Diego, West Division; Jacksonville, playoff berth.
* ELIMINATED: Miami, N.Y. Jets, Kansas City, Oakland, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston, Buffalo, Denver.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
The Browns can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) A loss by Tennessee OR 2) A win or tie and a Tennessee tie.
TENNESSEE TITANS
The Titans can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) A win OR 2) A tie and a Cleveland loss.
NFC
* CLINCHED: Dallas, East Division and home-field advantage; Green Bay, North Division and a first-round bye; Seattle, West Division; Tampa Bay, South Division; N.Y. Giants, playoff berth.
* ELIMINATED: San Francisco, St. Louis, Atlanta, Chicago, Arizona, Philadelphia, Detroit, Carolina.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
The Redskins can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) A win OR 2) A tie and a Minnesota loss or tie OR 3) A loss and a Minnesota loss and a New Orleans loss.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
The Vikings can clinch a playoff berth with:
1) A win and a Washington loss or tie
OR
2) A tie and a Washington loss
NEW ORLEANS
The Saints can clinch a playoff berth with:
A win and a Washington loss and a Minnesota loss.
Associated Press
Sunday NFL Gameday
Two Wild Card berths will still be on the line on Sunday during the last weekend of the National Football League's regular-season schedule. Here is your NFL Gameday .
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns (-11.5) (Total 40.5)
Cleveland Browns Stadium, 1:00pm ET (FOX)
The 49ers might not have anything to play for, but that didn't stop them from upending the Buccaneers at home last weekend. Of course, that was partly due to a solid effort from Shaun Hill (three TD passes), and he'll sit out on Sunday with a back injury. That makes Chris Weinke the 49ers' starting quarterback for Sunday's game vs. Cleveland.
The Browns hurt their Wild Card chances by losing 19-14 on the road to the Bengals last weekend. Cleveland now needs to hope that the Titans fall to the Colts on Sunday night to reach the postseason. Derek Anderson went 29-of-48 for 251 yards passing in the loss to Cincinnati, with two touchdown passes but four big interceptions on the day.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (-9) (Total 39.5)
FedExField, 4:15pm ET (FOX)
Dallas has said they want to win Sunday's game, but the result won't make any difference to them in the standings. Terrell Owens has already been ruled OUT for the contest with his ankle injury, while Marion Barber is expected to have limited carries. Tony Romo is likely to get the start at QB but he's not expected to play the whole game.
The Redskins can clinch the second NFC Wild Card berth with a win over the Cowboys; if they lose they'll have to hope that both the Vikings and the Saints lose on Sunday as well. Washington came up large in a 32-21 road win over Minnesota last weekend, with Todd Collins going 22-of-29 for 254 yards and two TDs. Clinton Portis also had a score.
Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Denver Broncos (Total 41.5)
Invesco Field, 4:15pm ET (FOX)
The Vikings need the Redskins to lose to advance to the postseason, but they won't know the result of that game when this one begins. Minnesota scored two late touchdowns last week to make the game close, but they couldn't come all the way back. Tarvaris Jackson went 25-of-41 for 220 yards passing, with one TD strike and two INTs.
Denver probably doesn't care if Minnesota or Washington makes the postseason, so there's no telling how much their starters will play on Sunday afternoon. The Broncos were embarrassed 23-3 on the road vs. San Diego on Christmas Eve, with Jay Cutler going just 14-of-32 for 155 yards passing and two INTs. Jason Elam booted a field goal.
Tennessee Titans (-5.5) at Indianapolis Colts (Total 39)
RCA Dome, 8:15pm ET (NBC)
The Titans are in with a win, or they can play for a tie and still make the playoffs if the Browns lose in the afternoon. Tennessee kept their playoff drive alive with a slim 10-6 home win over the Jets last week. Vince Young went 12-of-22 for 166 yards passing in that contest, with one INT. LenDale White rushed for 103 yards on 23 carries in the win.
The Colts are expected to limit Peyton Manning to only a cameo appearance on Sunday night, although Marvin Harrison is finally expected to return from injury and get the start at wide receiver. Indianapolis cruised to a 38-15 home win over the Texans last weekend, with Manning throwing for 311 yards and three touchdowns in that matchup.
Five NFL matchups that mean something
Covers.com
Everyone wants to know if the New England Patriots will top the New York Giants and finish as the first team in NFL history with a 16-0 regular season record.
But really, who cares?
We all know how this is going to play out. The Giants won’t risk an injury in a useless exhibition when their first playoff game is a week away.
There are several matchups with playoff implications on the line. Here are five matchups worth wagering on:
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts
I call this the Jim Sorgi effect. The Colts get points at home as often a Spears uses birth control so it’s apparent the books don’t think Indy’s starters will see the field on Sunday.
“I know Jim Sorgi’s going to play at least a half,” Colts coach Tony Dungy told the Indianapolis Star of his backup quarterback. “I don’t know how early he’ll get in the game, if he’ll get in the first half.”
Recent history says Peyton Manning won’t play more than the first series. The All-Pro quarterback was on the field for just three plays for the final game of 2004 (against the Denver Broncos) and 2005 (against the Arizona Cardinals). Indy failed to cover the spread each time.
A Titans’ win will secure Tennessee with the final playoff spot in the AFC and end any chance of the Cleveland Browns sneaking in. The Titans couldn’t ask for a better scenario heading into the RCA Dome.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns
The Browns are in a dicey situation because of last weekend’s loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Now the club’s fate is completely dependent on what Tennessee does against Indy.
Cleveland quarterback Derek Anderson took much of the heat for the setback to the Bengals. He threw four interceptions (two inside the red zone) but don’t expect rookie Brady Quinn on the field against San Francisco.
“Derek’s been our quarterback all year and I don’t see why you would switch,” center Hank Fraley told the Cleveland Plain Dealer. “He’s been playing well.”
“I think if we had it wrapped up and we were going to the playoffs, you might do something like that, just give (Brady) some game experience. But we’re still fighting since the beginning of the year and we’re playing as a team. “
The 49ers, on the other hand, could start their fourth different signal-caller this season. Recently signed Chris Weinke could start against the Browns because of third-stringer Shaun Hill’s sore back.
Hill missed practice on Wednesday but he’s confident he could play Sunday even without practicing all week.
“I’ve done that before,” he told the San Francisco Chronicle. “That’s part of life as a backup quarterback anyway. I’ll get mental reps.”
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
The Redskins are in the same position as the Titans: Win and they’re in. Kind of amazing if you remember three weeks ago Washington was two games below .500 (5-7).
It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys doing anything to help out a long-time rival but Dallas already has home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs secured.
Cowboys coach Wade Phillips isn’t sharing his plans for the playing of his starters this weekend.
“We haven’t finalized everything as far as who’s playing,” Phillips told reporters. “We have to see who’s healthy, see who’s ready to go. And then we’re gonna approach it like we’re gonna try to win the game. That’s what you play for.”
This could be a bluff from Dallas. The Cowboys certainly don’t want to risk another injury to a star player after Terrell Owens suffered a high ankle sprain Saturday.
Either way Washington is preparing for Dallas’ best performance.
“I expect them to come out here and play us,” Skins receiver Santana Moss told the Washington Post. “The rivalry speaks for itself. I think they’re going to be smart, but at the same time we’re going to be smart. We’ve got to go out there and try to win regardless of the situation.”
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos
The Vikes seemed to be a sure thing in the NFC playoffs but a 32-21 setback to the Skins has Minnesota scrambling to continue its season.
The purple-people eaters need a victory and a Washington loss to creep into the NFL tournament. The Cowboys should expect gift baskets care of the Vikings if Dallas beats Washington.
Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson isn’t finding much room to run these days but the rookie back faces the league’s third-worst rushing defense this time out. The Broncos inability to stop the run has led to two embarrassing losses in which the club has been outscored 54-16.
“Obviously, (Peterson) wants to contribute, and you don’t begrudge him for that,” Vikings head coach Brad Childress told the Pioneer Press. “It’s just you don’t want him to get frustrated and see ghosts and go somewhere it doesn’t belong.”
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears
The Saints playoff chances are slim but still existent. A win over the Bears along with a Washington and Minnesota loss puts New Orleans back in the dance.
Of course Chicago is the same team that beat New Orleans on Soldier Field in the NFC Championship game last season. The Bears aren’t playing anywhere close to the level they were last season and are just looking to end their miserable campaign.
“The season seems like it has just drawn on long for us,” Bears linebacker Brian Urlacher told the Chicago Tribune earlier this week.
The Saints play before Washington and Minnesota, so bettors shouldn’t expect any type of second-half letdown because of an out-of-town score.
National Football League Weather
Sunday, December 30th
Buffalo Bills at Philadelphia Eagles, 1:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 1:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins, 1:00 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 80.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins, 4:15 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 80-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers, 1:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 30-percent chance of snow. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 25.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans, 1:00 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the West at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 70.
New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears, 1:00 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the South at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens, 4:15 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy with a 60-percent chance of rain. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.
San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland Browns, 1:00 p.m.
Mostly Cloudy Mostly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Southeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.
Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos, 4:15 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the West at 10-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 35.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders, 4:15 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northwest at 5-15 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 50.
St. Louis Rams at Arizona Cardinals, 4:15 p.m.
Sunny Sunny. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 60.
Kansas City Chiefs at New York Jets, 8:15 p.m.
Partly Cloudy Partly cloudy. Winds blowing from the Northeast at 5-10 m.p.h. Game-time temperature: Around 40.