Sunday’s Pregame Buzz
San Diego Chargers at Indianapolis Colts
* The San Diego Chargers are coming off their first playoff victory in more than 14 years. San Diego dominated the Titans in the Wild-Card round, holding them to 248 total yards on just 6 points. This has been the case over the last 14 weeks for the Chargers, as the team has posted an 11-2 record since Week 5 while holding opponents to just 14 points per game. EDGE: CHARGERS
* The Super Bowl Champion Indianapolis Colts enter this game as prohibitive favorites yet again. The Colts finished the season ranked third in the league in scoring an average of 28 points per game. Quarterback Peyton Manning recorded his eighth 4,000-yard passing season, and WR Reggie Wayne had a career year with 1,510 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. WR Marvin Harrison (knee), WR Anthony Gonzalez (foot), and TE Ben Utecht (shoulder) are all expected to play – making this Colts offense near 100 percent for the first time in months. EDGE: COLTS
* Indianapolis is no longer the no-name Colts defense, as they finished as the NFL’s top ranked scoring defense yielding 16 ppg. The Colts have held five of their last seven opponents under 20 points, and with Bob Sanders anchoring the secondary no quarterback has thrown for more than 260 yards against team this season.The Chargers offese is expected to be down a man as well with their Pro Bowl TE Antonio Gates (toe) listed as doubtful for the game. EDGE: COLTS
* The Colts will face a defensive scheme that has given them problems. Indianapolis' track record against 3-4 defenses is subpar. Pittsburgh eliminated the Colts from the playoffs in the 2005 season, and New England did the same in 2003 and '04. Indianapolis averaged just 13 points in those contests. Peyton Manning has thrown a total of 8 interceptions in the last two games against this Charger 3-4 defense. EDGE: CHARGERS
* Chargers are 7-0 SU & ATS in their last 7 games.
* Chargers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. AFC opponents.
* Chargers are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
* Colts are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on turf.
* The OVER is 10-2-2 in San Diego's last 14 road games.
* The UNDER is 6-2-2 in San Diego's last 10 games vs. AFC opponents.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
* The Dallas Cowboys will be trying for their first playoff win in more than a decade; the drought is the longest in team history. In order to end their playoff drought, the Cowboys will have to pull off a franchise first by beating the New York Giants for the third time this season. Dallas has never completed a three-game season sweep of a team, and lost to Arizona in a 1998 Wild-Card game at Texas Stadium when trying to do so in its last attempt. EDGE: GIANTS
* The Giants only road loss on the season came on opening day, which was against this Cowboys team. Since then, New York has reeled off eight straight road victories, including a 24-14 win at Tampa Bay in the Wild-Card round. The G-Men are averaging 26 ppg on the road this season and Michael Strahan said “We perform better on the road, which is what we need here in the playoffs.” EDGE: GIANTS
* Dallas doesn’t have much momentum coming into this game, as it went 2-2 in December and failed to score a touchdown in either loss. Cowboys QB Tony Romo has been nursing a thumb injury along with the tabloids, and WR Terrell Owens has missed practice time this week due to an ankle injury. After a thirteen-win season Coach Wade Phillips said “We are now in the big game, and we’ll be just fine.” EDGE: COWBOYS
* Giants QB Eli Manning threw for 312 yards with four touchdowns on opening day against the Cowboys, but followed that performance with just one touchdown and two interceptions at Giants stadium. Cowboys QB Tony Romo threw for 8 touchdowns in those two games, with the team scoring a combined 76 points. EDGE: COWBOYS
* Cowboys are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass.
* Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. NFC opponents.
* The UNDER is 7-1 in New York's last 8 road games.
* The OVER is 14-6-2 in Dallas' last 22 games on grass.
* The OVER is 7-3-3 in Dallas' last 13 games vs. NFC East.
Pregame.com
Chargers at Colts
By Judd Hall
I know the old proverb goes “revenge is a dish best served cold.” However, I’m thinking in this instance of the Colts hosting San Diego (12-5 straight up, 12-5 against the spread), we’ll be able to substitute “room temperature” for “cold.”
I figured it’d be rather fitting seeing that this AFC Division Playoff would be played the temperature controlled RCA Dome. It’s humorous, but perhaps only to me.
Indianapolis (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) enters this tilt fresh off of a well deserved bye for winning the AFC South and clinching the No. 2 seed in the playoffs. The Colts also will be looking to avenge an earlier 23-21 loss in Southern California as four-point road favorites in Week 10.
For those of you out there that don’t remember too much of that game let me jog your memory. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions (most in his career), but still found a way to throw for 328 yards and a pair of touchdowns on a rain soaked Sunday night in San Diego. Hell, Indy still had a chance to pull out a win.
So why did the Colts still have a chance to win that game? It’s because Philip Rivers couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn.
The North Carolina State product completed just 13 of 24 passes for 104 yards and a pair of picks. And let’s not forget a fumble Rivers had late in the game that was immediately turned into an Indianapolis touchdown.
VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Paul Bovi believes Rivers is where this game will happen.
“The Bolts’ offense will be hurt by the loss of Antonio Gate (toe), but they have capable receivers like Chris Chambers and Vincent Jackson.”
Bovi believes that San Diego will need to score at least 27 points to have a chance at winning this game. And I’m inclined to agree with him, but the odds the Chargers can pull that off are slim.
Indianapolis is second in the NFL against the pass, allowing just 172.8 yards per game through the air while giving up 16 scores.
The Colts also have a major advantage on the offensive side of the ball in this match as Marvin Harrison is slated to return to the lineup. And unlike he was supposed to play in Week 17 against Tennessee…this time he appears to really be in the lineup.
VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Barry Holthaus think Harrison can make life difficult for the Chargers, even with the timing issues he’ll have on routes.
“It is hard to believe Harrison could just pick right up where he left off; however, just having him on the field gives the Chargers something else to think about,” says Holthaus. “I think the Colts need to get him in the game because there is nothing that can simulate game conditions.”
History is on Indy’s side in this game, but only as a money line play. And that is asking too much for someone as the Colts are minus 500 (risk $500 to win $100). I say that because home favorites are 14-6 SU in the divisional round, but are just 9-11 ATS since 2002. The ‘under’ is 12-8 during that time as well.
The Colts also have a solid home mark in the postseason, going 4-2 SU and ATS.
Below are a few trends that VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Pat Hawkins dug up…
- Play on any “rested” home team in the NFL playoffs if they…
1) Lost ATS in their last game (Dallas and Indianapolis)
2) Have a winning percentage of .750 or better (Colts & Cowboys are both 13-3)
3) When their opponent enters the match off of a win of seven or more points (San Diego won by 11, the Giants won by 10)
This system has gone 11-0 since 1980.
- Play against the wild card team that scored the fewest points in winning their first playoff match (Against Chargers, 23-8 ATS from 1995 to 2006)
- Play against a winning team that has scored 20 or less last week (Against Chargers, 27-12-2 ATS)
vegasinsider.com