Betting news, trends, odds and predictions from various handicappers and websites for Tuesday 1/26/21
Super Bowl 55 Opening Odds - Chiefs favored over Buccaneers
Micah Roberts
Vegas ready for Super Bowl 55
It’s a dreamy Super Bowl 55 matchup featuring Tom Brady against Patrick Mahomes, a matchup that offers a little bit of intrigue for everyone to share opinions which makes for a tremendous betting event.
Moms, Grandma’s, the Priest, and the mailman will all have thoughts on who will win.
We have two weeks to wait for the game, but the talking of who will win began Sunday immediately after Brady beat the Packers at Lambeau Field to make his 10th Super Bowl.
The Buccaneers were 3.5-point underdogs in that game and they’ll be +3.5 against the defending champion Chiefs as well.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook opened the Chiefs -3.5 with a total of 57.5 with 45 minutes left in the Chiefs eventual 38-24 win over the Bills.
Circa Sports opened the Chiefs -3 -120 as did William Hill books and both were quickly moved to -3.5. The South Point and MGM both opened -3.5.
“Mahomes against Brady is going to be huge,” Nevada BetMGM’s sportsbook director Jeff Stoneback said.
“Handle has been up all season despite less occupancy so I don’t see why the trend wouldn’t continue for the biggest game of the season. It’s been weird because six-figure wagers are a common thing now. I used to remember them all because that size of a bet was unique, but now that it’s a regular thing, I lose count of how many we took some weeks.”
Mobile wagering with lots of automated options has helped most books achieve bigger numbers this NFL season.
It’s easier than ever for people to bet and bet again in 2021 staying home during a pandemic, so why not set a record to commemorate it.
The Nevada record for Super Bowl sportsbook handle was $158 million in 2018 when the Eagles beat the Patriots and the highest win was $19.67 million in 2014 when the Seahawks thrashed the Broncos, 43-8.
I can tell you this, the soft spot for your Grandma will be 43-year-old Tom Brady, who just played in his 14th conference championship game.
He comes off seven straight wins while scoring 30-points or more in their last six.
He won all three playoff games on the road. They’ve got some serious momentum heading into Tampa.
Yes, the game is on their home field, the first team ever to play a Super Bowl on their home field.
Chiefs get early action
Early money showed up on the Chiefs at -3 -120, but that was more about the number. Or was it?
BetMGM’s Jason Scott said they took $50K on the Chiefs -3.5 and $150K on the Chiefs money-line at -180 shortly after the line was posted.
Or maybe it’s just the “what we saw last” type of betting.
The Chiefs are back covering after going 1-8 ATS in their previous nine games, one of which was a Week 12 game at Tampa Bay they won 27-24 but didn’t cover -3.5. The Bucs have not lost since that meeting.
Super Bowl 55 Adjustments Coming?
Where will the line go, up or down?
William Hill’s Nick Bogdanovich, who is booking his 27th or 29th Super Bowl, says it will stay 3 or 3.5 the entire next two weeks.
Station Casinos sportsbook director is hoping for something different.
“I was praying for two-way action at 3.5 but I expect to see Bucs money take it down,” Jason McCormick said.
And then how long do you stay at 3, the most key number in the NFL, before jumping down to 2.5? The books don’t want to push on 3, but they also don’t want to get middle by going to 2.5.
A Black Sunday happened after the 1978 season with the Steelers and Cowboys in Super Bowl 13. Only a handful of books around in Nevada back then with low limits compared to now. A Black Sunday in 2021 would be devastating.
We’ll see how it all unfolds the next two weeks and I’ll report what I see and thoughts on where the number may be going.
My advice shortly after the number was posted Sunday is to take the Bucs +3.5 and money-line sooner than later if you like them and if you like the Chiefs wait for -2.5.
One thing I’ve noticed in recent Super Bowls is that public opinion completely flips sides from what was bet the first two or three days.
Sharp money doesn’t matter as much as the regular season and gets lost in all the public money piling up.
NFL Super Bowl LV: Bet Now, Bet Later
Jason Logan
The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium on February 7—a default home game for the Bucs, who opened as Big Game underdogs.
But no matter the matchup, from preseason to regular season to Super Bowl, the sharpest NFL betting strategy is always to get the best of the number. We look at the opening spread and total and early line movements, giving you our best betting tips of the wagers to make now and the ones to make later.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3) vs Kansas City Chiefs: Bet Later
Never has a team played a Super Bowl on their own turf and despite that fact, the Buccaneers are giving a field goal to the “visiting” Chiefs in Super Bowl LV.
Offshore operators posted odds on the potential Super Bowl matchup at halftime of the AFC Championship Game, actually dealing K.C. as low as -2.5 before a quick move to Kansas City -3. The vig shifted dramatically over the final two quarters of the Chiefs’ beatdown of the Buffalo Bills and the recency bias (people are going to react to what they saw last) pushed it even further, with some shops dealing Kansas City -3.5 (-105)/Tampa Bay +3.5 (-115) and others maxing the vig on Chiefs -3 (-125) to cling to the key number.
If you're on the home underdog Bucs, don’t buy it at a field goal: wait it out and get that half-point hook. In discussions with oddsmakers following Tampa Bay’s win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship, Covers’ writer Patrick Everson was told home field in the Super Bowl could be worth between 0.5 and 1.5 points to the spread. The Bucs could do for some home cooking, after winning three straight playoff road games to get Tom Brady back to the Big Game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Kansas City Chiefs (Over 57.5): Bet Now
The current Super Bowl LV total is sitting at 57.5 points—tied with Super Bowl LI for the highest Over/Under in Big Game history. That infamous game (which also featured Brady) needed overtime to get Over the number. This one probably won’t need any help and could sniff 60 points by the time Super Sunday rolls around.
Given that Tampa Bay has posted scores of 31, 30, and 31 points in those road postseason stops, bettors should feel pretty good about the Bucs sharing the scoring load in Super Bowl LV, especially since Kansas City looks like the weakest defense Tampa has faced so far in the tournament.
The Chiefs finally snapped out of their offensive slumber versus Buffalo, dropping 38 points on the Bills with a relentless big-play attack. Kansas City had been scuffing its feet on offense for more than a month but put up its second-highest point total of the season in the AFC title game—and looked just as dangerous as it did at its 2020 peak.
These teams clashed in Week 12, with Kansas City winning 27-24 (as 3.5-point road chalk) and playing Under the 56-point total. However, Brady and Bucs were mired in an offensive slump at the time and neither team was great in the red zone. There are plenty more points to be squeezed from the Chiefs and Buccaneers in Super Bowl LV. If you’re leaning Over, bet that bad boy now before it breaks the all-time Over/Under record.
101KANSAS CITY -102 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the current season.
101KANSAS CITY -102 TAMPA BAY
KANSAS CITY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse in the second half of the season in the current season.
101KANSAS CITY -102 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 in the current season.
NFL
Long Sheet
KANSAS CITY (16 - 2) at TAMPA BAY (14 - 5) - 2/7/2021, 6:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 this season.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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Trend Report
Sunday, February 7
Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Kansas City is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Kansas City
Super Bowl 55 Betting Angles
Betcha Didn’t Know
Super Bowl 55 Betting Trends & Angles
Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be the 55th installment of the NFL’s big game on Sunday Feb. 7, 2021 from Tampa, Florida.
If you’re a bettor that likes to rationalize his position on a particular wager, then look no further.
The staff have uncovered 55 Super Betting Angles with hopes of helping you strengthen your thought process on all of your side, total and prop wagers on the Chiefs and Bucs.
Good Luck and enjoy!
55 Super Betting Angles
1 - There have been eight Super Bowl champions that have repeated but only 1 player to double-up on the Most Valuable Player award, which was Bart Starr of the Green Bay Packers in SBI and SBII. If Kansas City wins and you’re buying this trend, you might want to leave quarterback Patrick Mahomes (the MVP favorite) off your ticket list.
2 - The amount of Super Bowl victories (2) by teams currently in the NFC South (Buccaneers in 2002 and Saints in 2009).
3 - Tampa Bay owns a 14-5 record entering SB55 but three of the losses have come at night and that includes a 0-2 record at Raymond James Stadium.
Week 9 - Bucs 3 Saints 38
Week 11 - Bucs 24 Rams 27
4 - The Chiefs are making their fourth Super Bowl appearance. Kansas City rallied past San Francisco last February, 31-20, as the Chiefs are playing in their third different city in the Southeast in the Super Bowl (New Orleans, Miami, Tampa).
5 - This will be the fifth Super Bowl played in the city of Tampa, Florida. The AFC has gone 3-1 in the first four installments for the city that’s also known as “Cigar City”, “The Big Guava” and also “The Lightning Capital of the World.”
6 - We’ve seen six teams cover the spread in a loss as an underdog in Super Bowl history. The last club to cash in a defeat was the Arizona Cardinals in SB XLIII against Pittsburgh in Tampa in a 27-23 setback as seven-point ‘dogs.
7 - The Buccaneers are riding a seven-game winning streak heading into Super Sunday. The last NFC team to own a seven-game hot stretch going into the Super Bowl was the 2000 Giants. They lost in Tampa as three-point underdogs to the Ravens.
8 - There have only been eight back-to-back Super Bowl champions. Kansas City will be looking to become the 9th. The last team to win two straight Super Bowls was New England (2003-04), who were led by quarterback Tom Brady.
9 - The Chiefs have surrendered nine rushing touchdowns since Oct. 25. None of the nine rushing touchdowns allowed by Kansas City has been for over four yards.
10 - This is the 10th Super Bowl appearance for Tom Brady, who is seeking his seventh championship. This marks only the second time the legendary quarterback is listed as an underdog in the Super Bowl with the first coming in his debut in the 2001 upset of the Rams.
11 - Eleven times in Tom Brady’s career he has thrown at least 10 interceptions in a season. In the last six seasons Brady has thrown double-digit picks, his team won the Super Bowl only once, coming back in 2018 when the Patriots held off the Rams.
12 - This is the 12th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher. The ‘under’ has gone 8-3 in the first 11 Super Bowls involving a total of 50 or more, including last season’s 31-20 win by the Chiefs over the 49ers.
13 - There have been 13 situations where a head coach was making his debut in the Super Bowl versus a head coach with Super Bowl experience. This situation has happened in each of the last three seasons and only Philadelphia's Doug Pederson bested New England's Bill Belichick in the first-time role. Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan both came up short for the Rams and 49ers respectively.
14 - In nine Super Bowl appearances, Tom Brady was installed as an underdog twice. The largest spread came in Super Bowl XXXVI in 2002, when the New England Patriots (+14) upset the St. Louis Rams 20-17. As a 'dog overall in the postseason, Brady has been a very sound investment (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS).
Brady Underdog Playoff History
2020 - Bucs (+3.5) 31 at Packers 26, Over 53
2020 - Bucs (+3) 30 at Saints 20, Under 53.5
2019 - Patriots (+3) 37 at Chiefs 31, Over 56
2015 - Patriots (+1) 28 vs. Seahawks 24, Over 47.5 (SB 49)
2014 - Patriots (+4.5) 16 at Broncos 26, Under 56.5
2007 - Patriots (+3.5) 34 at Colts 38, Over 47
2007 - Patriots (+4.5) 24 at Chargers 21, Under 46
2006 - Patriots (+3) 13 at Broncos 27, Under 45.5
2005 - Patriots (+1) 20 vs. Colts 13, Under 51
2002 - Patriots (+14) 20 vs. Rams 17, Under 53
2002 - Patriots (+8) 24 at Steelers 17, Over 36 (SB 36)
15 - In the eight games played by the Bucs from Raymond James Stadium this season, the average margin of victory was 15 points (14.9 PPG) and that included two games decided by exactly three points.
16 - Chiefs’ quarterback Patrick Mahomes owns a 16-1 record in his last 17 games played away from Arrowhead Stadium dating back to the start of the 2019 season (11-6 ATS).
17 - Kansas City head coach Andy Reid owns a 17-14 career postseason record, 7-5 with the Chiefs and 10-9 during his previous tenure with Philadelphia. More importantly, he’s 6-1 with Mahomes as his QB and the lone loss came in overtime to guess who -- Tom Brady.
18 - Tampa Bay QB Tom Brady has tossed for 18 touchdowns in his nine Super Bowl appearances and he had 2-plus in six of the finales.
19 - The Buccaneers are playing in their 19th playoff game in franchise history on Sunday. Tampa Bay owns a 9-9 record in the postseason since entering the league in 1976.
20 - Tampa Bay has covered a +3.5-point spread in four straight games when getting exactly 20 first downs. One of those four games was against New Orleans in the NFC Divisional Round, and the other was on Nov. 29 against the Kansas City Chiefs.
21 - In three Super Bowl losses, Tom Brady-led offensive units were held to 21.3 points per game.
22 - Quarterbacks are getting most of the attention for both teams but the scoring defense for Tampa Bay (22.3) and Kansas City (22.4) shouldn’t be ignored, ranked 9th and 10th respectively.
23 - Tom Brady has been picked off in 23 of his 44 career playoff appearances and that includes picks in five of his nine Super Bowls.
24 - Chiefs quarterbacks have been sacked a total of 24 times this season - Patrick Mahomes (22) and Chad Henne (2) the victims.
25 - In the first 25 Super Bowls, the favorites have gone 17-8 against the spread. In the last 29, the underdogs have produced a 14-12-2 ATS mark. Super Bowl 49 between the Patriots and Seahawks closed at a pick 'em.
26 - According to the Nevada Gaming Commission, sportsbooks have posted a “profit” in 26 of the last 28 Super Bowls. The two matchups they lost on came in 1995 when San Francisco annihilated San Diego and in 2008 when the Giants upset the Patriots.
When it comes to winning money on Super Bowls, no other legal US state can come close to Nevada's track record. (VI)
27 - Bucs QB Tom Brady owns a 7-5 career record versus the Kansas City Chiefs and his offensive units have averaged 27 points per game in those 12 games.
28 - Patrick Mahomes has played against 10 NFC opponents in his young career and he’s led the Chiefs to a 8-2 record while tossing an eye-opening 28 touchdowns to four interceptions. FYI - Mahomes and KC are 4-0 against the NFC South.
29 - Mahomes had never completed at least 29 passes in a playoff game until reaching that number in this year’s AFC Championship victory over the Bills. In last season’s Super Bowl win over the 49ers, Mahomes connected on 26 passes on 42 attempts, which is a career-high in his short postseason career.
30 - Quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl MVP 30 times in history. To no one surprise, both Mahomes and Brady are the favorites to capture this prestigious honor. Mahomes hoisted the MVP trophy last February and Brady is the only four-time winner in this category.
31 - Tampa Bay has scored exactly 31 points in three of its last six games, winners in all six games.
32 - Tampa Bay has seen opponents score 32 red zone touchdowns (62.7%), which is ranked 19th. Kansas City owns the worst red zone scoring percentage in the league (74%).
33 - Tom Brady has compiled a 33-11 playoff record in his career with the Patriots and Buccaneers, including a 6-3 mark in the Super Bowl.
34 - Since 1979, there have been 34 teams that were not top seeds in their conference that made the Super Bowl. The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ squad that beat the Raiders was one of those clubs, as Jon Gruden’s team finished at 12-4 and the second seed behind Philadelphia, who they demolished in the NFC Championship.
35 - When playing with rest, the Chiefs are averaging 35.7 PPG with Mahomes under center and Andy Reid on the sidelines.
36 - Tom Brady captured his first Super Bowl MVP in SBXXXVI (36), the first of four. He’s one of five players with multiple SB MVPs, all quarterbacks, and he’ll go to 5 and move two ahead of Joe Montana (3) in the record books.
37 - The most completions Mahomes had in a game this season came in the Week 12 win at Tampa Bay. Mahomes attempted a season-high 49 passes and connected on 37 of them, marking one of five games this season in which he completed at least 75% of his throws.
38 - Patrick Mahomes has lost four games outside of Kansas City in his career and it wasn’t for his offensive heroics as the Chiefs averaged 38.5 PPG in the defeats.
2019 - Chiefs 32 at Titans 35
2018 - Chiefs 31 at Seahawks 38
2018 - Chiefs 51 at Rams 54
2018 - Chiefs 40 at Patriots 43
39 - In Super Bowl 39 (XXXIX), New England defeated Philadelphia 24-21 but failed to cover as a seven-point favorite. This was one of two games where the underdog, in this case the Eagles, scored late to affect the point-spread. The other backdoor cover came in SBXIII when Pittsburgh defeated Dallas 35-31. The Cowboys trailed 35-17 and scored 14 points in the final three minutes.
40 - In nine of his 53 career starts, Mahomes has helped the Chiefs score 40-plus points. Surprisingly, KC lost two of those shootouts (See 38).
41 - Six times in Super Bowl history a team has scored at least 41 points. The Eagles pulled off this feat recently in a 41-33 victory over the Patriots. It was the first time in Super Bowl history that a team scored at least 41 points and didn't win by double-digits.
42 - Tampa Bay has scored 42 red zone touchdowns this season (68.9%), which was ranked fifth in the NFL.
43 - The most passes Tom Brady has completed in the postseason was 43, which came in New England’s 34-28 overtime win in Super Bowl 51 against Atlanta.
44 - Tom Brady has played in his 44 career playoff games, compiling an insane 33-11 (.750) record. However, Brady has never won four playoff games in a single postseason in his career.
45 - The largest margin of victory in a Super Bowl was 45 points, which came in 1990 when the San Francisco 49ers blasted the Denver Broncos 55-10 in SBXXIV.
46 - In their first and only Super Bowl appearance, the Buccaneers outscored the Raiders 28-18 in the second-half of SB37. The combined 46 points were the most scored in a second-half of a finale.
47 - Buccaneers’ coach Bruce Arians has lost 47 regular season games in his career. The 47 losses were fewer than the likes of veteran coaches Bill Belichick (55) and Pete Carroll (54). We mention those two future Hall of Famers because they both won their first Super Bowl appearance with teams they did not start their NFL coaching career with - Belichick (Browns) and Carroll (Jets).
48 - Tampa Bay has only had one Super Bowl appearance (37) in franchise history and the team exploded for a 48-21 win over Oakland in 2003.
49 - From 2011 through 2019, the Buccaneers won only 49 games, compared to 95 losses. Tampa Bay didn’t make the playoffs during that nine-year stretch, as Arizona in 2008 was the last NFC team to qualify for the Super Bowl following a nine-year span of no playoff appearances.
50 - Kansas City and Tampa Bay combined for five pass plays of at least 50 yards this season. Chiefs’ wide receiver Tyreek Hill is responsible for three big plays, including a 75-yard touchdown against the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay’s longest pass plays came courtesy of wideout Chris Godwin (52 yards) at Green Bay in the NFC title game and Mike Evans (50 yards) against Carolina in Week 2.
51 - The Chiefs (27) and Buccaneers (24) combined for 51 points in their regular season encounter on Nov. 29, 2020, which led to a winning ‘under’ (56) ticket.
52 - The combined average for total points in a game for both teams this season was 52.5. Games played inside Raymond James Stadium see an average of 52.4 points per game.
53 - When player props were released, both punters were listed with their longest gross punt at 53 ½ yards. Kansas City’s Tommy Townsend booted 14 of 52 punts this season of 54 yards of more. Tampa Bay’s Bradley Pinion posted only 10 punts of more than 54 yards in 64 tries.
54 - While some conferences like to have bragging rights, that's not the case in the Super Bowl. Through 54 NFL finales, the AFC and NFC have posted a 27-27 stalemate against one another.
55 - This is the fifth Super Bowl with a total of 55 or higher. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of the first four instances, with the lone ‘over’ hitting in Super Bowl LI between the Patriots and Falcons, which needed overtime to cash.
NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up
Super Bowl
Kansas City (16-2) @ Tampa Bay (14-5)
— Chiefs won nine of their last ten games but were 1-8-1 ATS in those games.
— Kansas City scored 32+ points in four of last five road games.
— Andy Reid is coaching in his 3rd Super Bowl; he won LY’s Super Bowl.
— Mahomes has a 6-1 career record playoff games.
— Chiefs allowed 25+ points in six of their 18 games.
— Before winning Super Bowl LY, Chiefs had lost 12 of previous 14 playoff games; now they’ve won five playoff games in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 14-0 when it scores 25+ points, 0-5 when it does not.
— Tom Brady has a 33-11 career record in playoff games, 6-3 in Super Bowls.
— Buccaneers won last six games overall, scoring 34.8 ppg.
— Last six games, Bucs converted 53-1125 third down plays (47.3%).
— Chiefs DC Spagnuolo is 3-2 SU as a coordinator against Tom Brady.
— In Brady’s nine Super Bowls, his team hasn’t scored a 1st quarter TD, and never led after the 1st quarter (0-4-5). But they won six of the nine games.
— Arians is in his first Super Bowl as a head coach; he won a Super Bowl ring as OC of the Steelers.
— Chiefs (-3.5) won 27-24 at Tampa Bay on November 29.
— Mahomes threw for 469 yards in that game; Chiefs led 20-7 at halftime.
— Kansas City outgained the Bucs 543-417 in that game.
— This is first time a team is playing Super Bowl on its home field.
— Underdogs are 9-4 ATS in last 13 Super Bowls.
— AFC teams won five of last six Super Bowls.
— Over last 25 years, Super Bowl teams who were #3 or lower seed in their conference are 8-3 SU, 11-0 ATS.
— This is first time in eight years a Super Bowl team didn’t have first-round bye.
#Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) was a full participant at practice today, but is officially listed as questionable for Sunday's Super Bowl vs. Tampa Bay. Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Le'Veon Bell are good to go.
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#Bucs WR Antonio Brown (knee) and TE Cameron Brate (back) are listed as questionable for Sunday's Super Bowl. Everyone else, including safeties Jordan Whitehead and Antoine Winfield, are good to go.
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Since 1995, #3 or lower seeds in Super Bowls.
1997— #4 AFC Denver (+11.5) W31-24
1999— #4 AFC Tennessee (+7) L16-23
2000— #4 AFC Baltimore (-3) W34-7
2003— #3 NFC Carolina (+7) L29-32
2005— #6 AFC Pittsburgh (-4) W21-10
2006— #3 AFC Indianapolis (-6.5) W29-17
2007— #5 NFC NJ Giants (+12) W17-14
2008— #4 NFC Arizona (+7) L23-27
2010— #6 NFC Green Bay (-2.5) W31-25
2011— #4 NFC NJ Giants (+3) W21-17
2012— #4 AFC Baltimore (+4.5) W34-31
Since 1995, #3 or worse seeds in Super Bowl: 8-3 SU, 10-0-1 ATS