Arizona Cardinals' 2010 success hinges on Leinart
By: StatFox
The Cardinals have won back-to-back NFC West Division titles, but a lot changed to their roster since January, most notably at quarterback where Kurt Warner has since retired. That bit of news plus some other key departures has Arizona hopes at a three-peat in danger. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series begins with a look at the 2010 Arizona Cardinals.
ARIZONA CARDINALS
2009 Record:11-7 (+0 ML Units), 9-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Ken Whisenhunt, 4th year (31-13 SU, 31-22 ATS)
STADIUM:University of Phoenix Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, NFC Title:28 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:17 (#21 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+0.4 (#17 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-7 ~ 31-23 (57%)
ATS: 9-8 ~ 31-22 (58%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 5-4 ~ 17-10 (63%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-7 (61%)
Conference ATS: 7-7 ~ 22-19 (54%)
Favorite ATS: 3-7 ~ 14-13 (52%)
Underdog ATS: 6-1 ~ 17-9 (65%)
Over-Under: 7-11 ~ 32-22 (59%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.3 (#12 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +0.0 (#17 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.33 (#13 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.14 (#10 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 355.4 (#12 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 355.4 (#23 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.69 (27th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at St Louis, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - OAKLAND, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - TAMPA BAY, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - SEATTLE, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
11/29/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 8:30 PM
12/5/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - DENVER, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
12/25/10 - DALLAS, 7:30 PM
1/2/11 - at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# ARIZONA is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more PYA since '07. The Average Score was ARIZONA 26.7, OPPONENT 23.8
2010 OUTLOOK
The last time the Cardinals won back-to-back division titles prior to 2008 and ’09, the team was located in St. Louis. However, just when it seemed like the franchise was set to become a consistent playoff contender, the retirement of QB Kurt Warner, trade of WR Anquan Boldin and the loss of LB Karlos Dansby to free agency has taken away a strong core of talent, putting another postseason berth for head coach Ken Whisenhunt’s team in jeopardy…Although Arizona’s offensive numbers were down a bit from its Super Bowl season, the Cardinals still managed to place 14th in the NFL in total offense (344.4 YPG). Now that Warner is gone, replacing his 8,336 yards passing and 56 touchdowns the past two seasons is a huge question lingering over the offense. Matt Leinart, whose career has been slowed by injury and inconsistency, and newly acquired Derek Anderson (Browns), are next in line. Of course, any receiving corps that has the services of Larry Fitzgerald will present problems for opposing secondaries, and Beanie Wells should continue to improve after leading the team with 793 yards rushing (7 TD’s) as a rookie. The offensive line has a new face in free-agent guard Alan Faneca (Jets)…After finishing 20th in the NFL in total defense (346.4 YPG) and 14th in scoring defense (20.3 PPG), the stop unit more or less fell apart in the postseason, allowing 90 points in two games. Gone from the unit are LB Karlos Dansby, FS Antrel Rolle, and DE Bertrand Berry…With Warner, Fitzgerald and Boldin, the Cardinals had one of the NFL’s most potent passing attacks. Now that Warner and Boldin are out of the picture, the running game may play more a prominent role. The defense, minus key contributors, will have to step up for the Cardinals to contend for a third straight NFC West title.
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Matt Leinart is 7-10 as a starter for Arizona throughout his career, and with a more regular gig, he's capable of leading this team to a better mark than that down the road. However, the loss of Boldin and a few key defensive players makes that a tough task for 2010. If you consider that this team was average last season (dead even with opponents in yards per game), they look a lot less than average now. UNDER 7.5.
Falcons healthy & hopeful for 2010 postseason berth
By: StatFox
Despite missing out on the postseason in 2009, Mike Smith guided the Falcons to their first-ever run of consecutive winning seasons even though a rash of injuries wiped out full campaigns from his top two offensive weapons—QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner—and ravaged the line in front of them. Both are back and make Atlanta a bonafide playoff contender again. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Atlanta Falcons.
ATLANTA FALCONS
2009 Record:9-7 (+2.6 ML Units), 11-5 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:Mike Smith, 3rd year (20-13 SU, 20-13 ATS)
STADIUM:Georgia Dome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, NFC Title:13 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:24 (#11 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+3.3 (#11 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 9-7 ~ 24-25 (49%)
ATS: 11-5 ~ 27-21 (56%)
Preseason ATS: 2-1 ~ 8-3 (73%)
Home ATS: 6-2 ~ 14-10 (58%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 13-11 (54%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 8-4 ~ 19-18 (51%)
Favorite ATS: 6-2 ~ 10-5 (67%)
Underdog ATS: 4-3 ~ 16-16 (50%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 24-25 (49%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +2.4 (#15 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -8.5 (#19 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.4 (#24 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.19 (#9 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +3 (#11 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 340.4 (#16 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 348.9 (#20 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.69 (16th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at St Louis, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
12/27/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM
1/2/11 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# ATLANTA is on a 2-14 ATS (-13.4 Units) skid at home vs. poor passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 61% or worse The Average Score was ATLANTA 20.3, OPPONENT 24.9
2010 OUTLOOK
Mike Smith has only roamed the Atlanta sidelines for two seasons, but he’s already fast-tracking his way to expectations rarely seen around the franchise. Despite missing out on the postseason, Smith guided the Falcons to their first-ever run of consecutive winning seasons even though a rash of injuries wiped out full campaigns from his top two offensive weapons—QB Matt Ryan and RB Michael Turner—and ravaged the line in front of them… Battling a toe injury Ryan threw more touchdowns in his second season (22-to-16) in two fewer games, but he also tossed three more interceptions (14-to-11) and saw his completion percentage drop almost three points and dip below 60%. Odds are most of the slight drops will be fixed simply by Turner stepping back into the huddle. The offense averaged 25.3 points in eight games with a healthy Turner and 20.1 in eight without. Ryan has no shortage of weapons, led by Turner and WR Roddy White, in the midst of an impressive stretch of three straight seasons with at least 83 catches and 1,153 yards. Of course, Atlanta’s ground attack has already proven to be deep and productive, with Jerious Norwood and Jason Snelling filling in admirably for Turner. For 2010, depth along the offensive line was boosted by the arrival of two new draft picks…The pass defense was a major Achilles’ heel, allowing an average of 241.9 YPG (28th), so Atlanta hopes the signing of Dunta Robinson (Texans), a ballhawking cornerback, bolsters the biggest area of need. The addition of LB Sean Weatherspoon (1-Missouri) gives coordinator Brian VanGorder an instant upgrade…Atlanta’s offense is still growing but despite its youth, and the core has gained valuable experience the last two seasons. Turner’s return should lessen the pressure on Ryan and increase scoring. If Smith’s fixes on the defense take hold, the Falcons will have no trouble returning to the playoffs.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9
StatFox Steve's Take: The Falcons are in one of the tougher divisions in the NFL and should be right there in the mix with the Saints and Panthers for top billing. Considering they have averaged 10 wins over the last two seasons, and assuming Ryan is healthy, there's no reason to believe that they can reach double-digits again. Slight lean OVER.
Bills buried at bottom of loaded AFC East
By: StatFox
While things aren't as bad in Buffalo as they seem to be at other NFL locales these days, there certainly isn't a whole lot of optimism either. The Bills haven't had a winning record since 2004 and are the clear-cut underdog in a loaded AFC East Division. New head coach Chan Gailey has been brought in to rebuild one of the league's worst offenses. it could be long season. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Buffalo Bills.
BUFFALO BILLS
2009 Record:6-10 (-1.4 ML Units), 8-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Chan Gailey, 1st year (18-16 SU w/DAL in '98-99)
STADIUM:Ralph Wilson Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-3.5 (#23 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 6-10 ~ 20-28 (42%)
ATS: 8-7 ~ 25-22 (53%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 6-6 (50%)
Home ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-10 (52%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 3-2 ~ 8-9 (47%)
Conference ATS: 6-5 ~ 18-17 (51%)
Favorite ATS: 3-1 ~ 8-6 (57%)
Underdog ATS: 5-6 ~ 17-16 (52%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 21-27 (44%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -4.2 (#23 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -66.5 (#26 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.21 (#22 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.36 (#17 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +3 (#11 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 275.9 (#30 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 342.4 (#19 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.19 (9th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at New England, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - NY JETS, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - CHICAGO (in Toronto), 1:00 PM
11/11/10 - DETROIT, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# BUFFALO is on a 13-2 UNDER the total (+10.8 Units) run on the road vs. teams giving up 17 or less PPG The Average Score was BUFFALO 14, OPPONENT 22.8
2010 OUTLOOK
Buffalo was doomed from the start of 2009, thanks to injuries and suspension, and didn’t do itself any favors by firing the offensive coordinator just days before Week 1. Things haven’t gotten much better since the 6-10 campaign concluded, though a new regime, led by GM Buddy Nix and HC Chan Gailey, is now in place. The primary focus for Gailey is an offense that finished 28th in the NFL in scoring (16.1 PPG), and 30th in passing (157.2 YPG)…Offensive line injuries mixed with unsteady play from three starting quarterbacks left a recipe for disaster. Things were so bad, they left Terrell Owens speechless in his only season with the team. Given Gailey’s background as a QB-friendly coach, Trent Edwards could become a viable starter, and the Bills have upgraded the skill positions by the selection of RB C.J. Spiller (1-Clemson). He is a game-breaker that gives this offensively starved team hope. ? Unfortunately, the line as a whole wasn’t adequately addressed, and Gailey is going to have his work cut out in protecting the QB and jump-starting the ground game…What’s most surprising about the Bills defense is how well it held up in the face of a struggling offense. Buffalo managed to avoid wearing down and closed the year by holding six of its final seven opponents to less than 20 points. The unquestioned strength was a pass defense that ranked No. 2 in the NFL (184.2 YPG) and finished second in interceptions (28). As strong as the secondary is, the line was equally as weak, getting pushed around for 156.3 RYPG and a hefty 4.7 yards per carry…Buffalo is pegged for the basement no matter how you slice it. The AFC East is loaded at the top. Gailey and Spiller aren’t miracle workers, and lacking a solid offensive line means points are still going to be tough to come by.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
StatFox Steve's Take: To me this looks like one of the worst teams in, if not the NFL, then certainly the AFC. As you go through the season schedule, you can point to 10 of 16 games in which they will be prohibitive underdogs. I don't see the Bills sweeping the other six games. UNDER.
Panthers have momentum heading into 2010
By: StatFox
A repeat division champion has never happened in the 8-year history of the NFC South, meaning someone should be ready to replace New Orleans at the top in 2010. After finishing last season on a 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS surge, the Panthers might be asking, why not us? Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Carolina Panthers.
CAROLINA PANTHERS
2009 Record:8-8 (+3.1 ML Units), 9-7 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:John Fox, 9th year (76-60 SU, 71-61 ATS)
STADIUM:Bank of America Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, NFC Title:28 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:26 (#9 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+2.4 (#12 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 27-22 (55%)
ATS: 9-7 ~ 25-22 (53%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 13-10 (57%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 11-6 (65%)
Conference ATS: 8-4 ~ 20-15 (57%)
Favorite ATS: 3-3 ~ 12-10 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 6-4 ~ 13-12 (52%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 20-29 (41%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +0.4 (#16 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +15.0 (#15 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.01 (#18 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.35 (#16 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +6 (#8 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 330.9 (#19 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 315.9 (#8 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 19.38 (24th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
12/23/10 - at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# CAROLINA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run at home vs. excellent offensive teams - averaging >=375 YPG The Average Score was CAROLINA 23.3, OPPONENT 16.8
2010 OUTLOOK
Despite winning their last three games in dominant fashion, the Panthers watched last season’s playoffs from home after salvaging a disappointing 8-8 campaign. Head coach John Fox is back and faced with the challenges of fixing an unbalanced offense and keeping the defense competitive in the wake of Julius Peppers’ departure. Fox has the league’s most inexperienced group of QB’s following the release of Jake Delhomme, who threw 18 interceptions in 2009. With only eight pro starts under his belt, Matt Moore brings confidence after winning four of five starts a year ago. Pushing him for a starting spot will be Jimmy Claussen (2- Notre Dame). With a dynamic duo of DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in the backfield, it’s no surprise the Panthers had more rushing touchdowns (18) than passing scores (16) and ranked third in the league in rushing offense. If Fox gets the air attack up to speed, the sky is the limit. The receiver corps is of course led by Steve Smith, but he can use help. Up front, tackles Jordan Gross and Jeff Otah set the tone and their health is vital to the unit’s success…Most fans are salty to see Peppers go, and he leaves a void in the defense, no doubt. The jury is out whether or not the returnees can consistently pressure the quarterback. The starting tackle spots are completely up for grabs, but that could be a positive considering opposing rushers averaged 4.4 YPR. In the middle, Jon Beason is among the best in the business, and while Chris Gamble, Richard Marshall, and Sherrod Martin form perhaps the division’s best secondary…The Panthers success in 2010 hinges on QB play since the backfield provides more than its share of offensive fuel. The defense, minus Peppers, will need a few players to pick up where they left off late last season in order for Carolina to challenge for division supremacy.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Carolina has a very manageable schedule and has shown a penchant for being able to bounce back from non-winning seasons, improving by at least four games from one year to the next in the John Fox era. The Panthers' play down the stretch of '09 was noteworthy. I like this team's chances to reach the playoffs. OVER.
Chicago needs a better Cutler in 2010
By: StatFox
For the second straight season, Chicago has made a noteworthy transaction in the offseason, only this time to the other side of the ball. After a turnover-laden first season with Jay Cutler leading the offense under center, the Bears have added DE Julius Peppers to join the likes of linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs on defense. Both units will have to improve for Chicago to challenge Green Bay and Minnesota. Read on as we continue our NFL team-by-team previews with a look at the 2010 Chicago Bears.
CHICAGO BEARS
2009 Record:7-9 (-0.8 ML Units), 6-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Lovie Smith, 7th year (54-46 SU, 46-50 ATS)
STADIUM:Soldier Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:25 to 1, NFC Title:11 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:16 (#23 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-3 (#22 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 7-9 ~ 23-25 (48%)
ATS: 6-10 ~ 20-27 (43%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 5-6 (45%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 11-13 (46%)
Road ATS: 2-6 ~ 9-14 (39%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 4-8 ~ 14-21 (40%)
Favorite ATS: 4-3 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Underdog ATS: 2-7 ~ 8-14 (36%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 22-26 (46%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -3 (#21 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -27.5 (#23 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.12 (#20 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.77 (#20 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -6 (#23 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 310.3 (#23 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 337.8 (#17 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.56 (5th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
9/27/10 - GREEN BAY, 8:30 PM
10/3/10 - at NY Giants, 8:20 PM
10/10/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - SEATTLE, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Buffalo (in Toronto), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM
11/18/10 - at Miami, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM
12/20/10 - at Minnesota, 8:30 PM
12/26/10 - NY JETS, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# CHICAGO is on a 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) skid after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games The Average Score was CHICAGO 19.2, OPPONENT 24.2
2010 OUTLOOK
Chicago fans are gushing over another prized acquisition, as DE Julius Peppers joins a unit that includes LB’s Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. It’s the second time in as many offseasons the front office put all of its eggs in one basket. Last year those eggs proved mainly rotten, with QB Jay Cutler leading the NFL in interceptions with 26 after a blockbuster trade with Denver. The Bears weren’t much of a factor in the NFC North and had the Lions, Rams and Browns to thank for four of their seven wins…A year after ranking third in the NFL in passing yards with 4,526, Cutler had never really got untracked and many of his picks came in the red zone or deep in Chicago territory. Overall, the offense ranked 23rd, up slightly from 26th, but the unit wasn’t close to meeting expectations. Little changed in personnel, but the presence of new coordinator Mike Martz and the natural progression of some younger players might turn it around. Though not big names at wide receiver, Martz thinks he has enough to get it done, and RB Matt Forte took a step back in 2009, but still totaled 1,400 yards from scrimmage. The line is in good shape…Perhaps not the team’s biggest problem, the Bears addressed some defensive concerns by investing in Peppers. HC Lovie Smith will be counting on Peppers to apply pressure in a QB-strong division, since there’s a chance the team’s starting ends, Alex Brown and Adewale Ogunleye, won’t be back. Of course, Urlacher’s season lasted just three quarters when he dislocated his right wrist in the opener…Expectations were high last season and the Bears didn’t come close to meeting them. Smith is on the hot seat, and a slow start could spell doom. While the addition of Peppers has created a buzz, he and Cutler need to be big for Chicago to make the playoffs.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8
StatFox Steve's Take: Eight wins for the Chicago Bears seems very optimistic to me considering how poorly Cutler played a year ago. If you look at the road schedule, you could easily see a second straight 2-6 record with wins coming at Buffalo and Detroit. If so, this team is not making the playoffs and 7-9 or even worse is the forecast. UNDER.
Rest of AFC North takes aim at Bengals in 2010
By: StatFox
The Cincinnati Bengals were AFC North Champions and won 10 games last season despite the fact that they failed to cover all eight of their games as a favorite. When playing as underdogs however, head coach Marvin Lewis' team was outstanding, going 6-3 SU & 7-2 ATS. Being the hunted team now, the Bengals have a whole new set of hurdles to overcome. Can they build off last season's success, or do they slip back into the clutches of the rest of the division? Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Cincinnati Bengals.
CINCINNATI BENGALS
2009 Record:10-7 (+4.4 ML Units), 7-10 ATS
DIVISION:AFC North
COACH:Marvin Lewis, 8th year (56-57-1 SU, 52-58 ATS)
STADIUM:Paul Brown Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:18 (#19 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+0.8 (#16 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 10-7 ~ 21-27 (44%)
ATS: 7-10 ~ 20-28 (42%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-6 (50%)
Home ATS: 3-6 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 9-14 (39%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 5-8 ~ 14-23 (38%)
Favorite ATS: 0-8 ~ 5-16 (24%)
Underdog ATS: 7-2 ~ 15-12 (56%)
Over-Under: 8-9 ~ 20-28 (42%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +0.2 (#17 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +3.1 (#16 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.13 (#21 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +0.09 (#14 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +0 (#18 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 307.5 (#24 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 304.4 (#4 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 23.06 (1st toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at New England, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
11/8/10 - PITTSBURGH, 8:30 PM
11/14/10 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - at NY Jets, 8:20 PM
12/5/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
Sample StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# CINCINNATI was 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as favorites last season. The Average Score was CINCINNATI 16.8, OPPONENT 16.8
2010 OUTLOOK
After suffering 10 losses in 2008, the Bengals cleaned up their act on and off the field and the result was a breakthrough 10-win campaign that brought the AFC North title in tow. Though the playoff loss at home to the Jets was a disappointment, the future is as bright as it’s been during the Marvin Lewis era as after going 6-0 in division play a year ago, followed by a promising offseason, repeat potential is no laughing matter…Much success can be traced to an offense led by a rejuvenated Cedric Benson at RB and a healthy Carson Palmer under center. The passing game ranked just 26th at 180.6 YPG but beginning in late October, Palmer enjoyed a nine-game stretch where he threw for 13 scores and four interceptions. The Bengals invested to make the air attack more potent, drafting TE Jermaine Gresham and WR Jordan Shipley, and signing WR Antonio Bryant. A line largely responsible for 51 sacks against in 2008 improved by leaps and bounds to trim the number to 29…Talented and unlucky are two words that come to mind to describe a stop unit that finally put it all together for Lewis and coordinator Mike Zimmer. It ranked No. 4 overall, allowing 301.4 YPG, and no worse than seventh against the run and pass, and sixth in scoring defense. Imagine what could have happened in January if right end Antwan Odom, LB Rey Maualuga, and tackle Domata Peko didn’t go down with injuries? Needless to say, there is big-time talent back on all levels of the defense for 2010…The Bengals were one of the league’s biggest surprises a year ago and may only get better on defense, making them legitimate contenders to return to the playoffs. Still, history would lead one to believe otherwise, as they’ve long struggled to string together big seasons.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: It says a lot about what oddsmakers think of a team's chances when their regular season win prop is under .500 when coming off a season in which they won double-digit games. Considering six of the 10 wins were by a TD or less, I can see where they are coming from. This is an average team in my opinion, and 7 or 8 wins seem likely. Slight lean to UNDER.
City of Cleveland puts its hope back in football
By: StatFox
We all know that Lebron James has left Cleveland for the sun & fun of South Beach, but a lot is new on the football front as well for 2010. Mike Holmgren has taken over the football operations of the Browns and made an immediate impact by acquiring Jake Delhomme as the new starter at quarterback. All this change comes to a team that won its final four games of last season outright, and its final seven against the spread. Maybe the Browns can help Cleveland fans forget about Lebron this fall. Our season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Cleveland Browns.
CLEVELAND BROWNS
2009 Record:5-11 (-2.9 ML Units), 10-6 ATS
DIVISION:AFC North
COACH:Eric Mangini, 2nd year (5-11 SU, 10-6 ATS)
STADIUM:Cleveland Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-8 (#27 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 5-11 ~ 19-29 (40%)
ATS: 10-6 ~ 28-19 (60%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-9 (61%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-10 (58%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 9-3 ~ 22-13 (63%)
Favorite ATS: 2-0 ~ 10-5 (67%)
Underdog ATS: 8-6 ~ 18-14 (56%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 22-24 (48%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -8.1 (#27 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -129 (#32 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.52 (#32 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.38 (#18 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -12 (#29 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 260.2 (#32 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 389.2 (#31 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.88 (2nd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - NY JETS, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# CLEVELAND is on a 8-0 UNDER the total (+8 Units) run against NFC South division opponents The Average Score was CLEVELAND 13.4, OPPONENT 16.9
2010 OUTLOOK
The writing appeared on the wall for Eric Mangini when the Browns hired Mike Holmgren as their new president, giving the win-starved organization a proven commodity to lead its front office. Surprisingly, Mangini was maintained as head coach thanks in large part to a four-game winning streak that salvaged an otherwise tumultuous 5-11 season. Holmgren has turned the page on a QB situation that grabbed plenty of negative headlines, releasing Derek Anderson and trading Brady Quinn. The Browns also let defensive leaders Kamerion Wimbley and Brodney Pool slip away. While the changes could end up being for the better, a third straight last-place finish in the AFC North will be a challenge to avoid…Cleveland ranked last in the NFL in total yards, averaging 260.2 per game, and passing yards (129.8 per game), but enjoyed some success on the ground, ranking eighth. Mangini won’t be answering QB questions this fall. Jake Delhomme starts, Seneca Wallace is the backup, and rookie Colt McCoy is the future. Rookie WR Mohamed Massaquoi showed flashes averaging 18.4 YPC, and RB James Harrison had an explosive finish (561 yards, 5 TD’s in L3 games). The group up front could be the best the Browns have fielded since returning to the league in 1999…The defensive side of the ball was a priority in trades, signings and the draft, as Holmgren did everything in his power to bolster a unit that allowed 375 points. The Browns signed LB Scott Fujita, traded for cornerback Sheldon Brown and LB Chris Gocong, and drafted cornerback Joe Haden among others…The early schedule provides the Browns with an opportunity to pick up where they left off, but a brutal four-game stretch starting in Week 6 could derail any momentum they take into October. Look for a transition year with lots of ups and downs to result in five or six wins.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Cleveland isn't nearly as bad as most experts are projecting. However, reaching the 6-win mark is going to be tough going against the league's second-most difficult schedule. The Browns have only won six or more games twice since 2002. Slight lean UNDER.
Dallas ready to ascend to top of NFC in 2010?
By: StatFox
The Dallas Cowboys got a huge monkey off their back in January, winning their first postseason game in nearly 15 years. Most talking heads around the NFL think that might be just what it took to reach the next level this season, as Dallas is one of the favorites to represent the NFC at the 2011 Super Bowl in, ironically, Dallas. Let's take a look at their chances as our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Dallas Cowboys.
DALLAS COWBOYS
2009 Record:12-6 (+5.4 ML Units), 10-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Wade Phillips, 4th year (34-17 SU, 26-25 ATS)
STADIUM:Dallas Cowboys Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, NFC Title:4.5 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:28 (#6 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+5.9 (#8 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 12-6 ~ 34-17 (67%)
ATS: 10-8 ~ 26-25 (51%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 6-3 ~ 15-11 (58%)
Road ATS: 4-5 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Division ATS: 4-3 ~ 9-11 (45%)
Conference ATS: 9-5 ~ 22-17 (56%)
Favorite ATS: 8-7 ~ 23-19 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 3-6 (33%)
Over-Under: 7-11 ~ 26-25 (51%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.7 (#6 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +83.0 (#2 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +1.02 (#1 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.23 (#6 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +2 (#13 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 400.9 (#2 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 317.9 (#10 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.13 (10th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Washington, 8:20 PM
9/19/10 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - TENNESSEE, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 - at Minnesota, 4:15 PM
10/25/10 - NY GIANTS, 8:30 PM
10/31/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
11/14/10 - at NY Giants, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Indianapolis, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
12/25/10 - at Arizona, 7:30 PM
1/2/11 - at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# DALLAS is on a 3-20 ATS (-19 Units) skid on the road after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games The Average Score was DALLAS 17, OPPONENT 19.1
2010 OUTLOOK
By Jerry Jones’ standards, it was a quiet offseason for the Cowboys and one can only assume one thing—Jones feels his franchise is built to become the first team to play in the Super Bowl it is hosting…QB Tony Romo fell apart against the Vikings’ pressure in the playoff loss, but one poor showing shouldn’t overshadow what was a banner year. On top of career-highs in passes attempted (550) and yards (4,483), Romo tossed a career-low nine interceptions. More importantly, he knocked the so-called gorilla off his back by beating Philadelphia in the wildcard playoff. The offensive outlook is indeed better with the arrival of WR Dez Bryant, who has wowed team representatives. The Cowboys have so many other weapons for defenses to account for already, inlcluding WR Miles Austin, off a breakout season, and TE Jason Witten, Romo’s favorite pass catcher. Don’t forget about WR Roy Wlliams, plus RB’s Marion Barber and Felix Jones as well. The line didn’t lose much with the release of tackle Flozell Adams, and promises to be strong…The stop unit doesn’t generate the headlines, but it is hard to overlook a unit that ranked fourth against the run (90.5 YPG) and ninth in total defense, and returns almost entirely intact. Consecutive shutouts over NFC East rivals in Weeks 16 and 17 also help raise its profile. The meat of the defense is the linebackers. Few teams can match the all-around play of the group as a whole. If there is any weakness, the secondary was exposed in the playoff loss…The strong play down the stretch bought the Wade Phillips regime one more season, but anything less than two steps forward will likely have him pounding the unemployment line. That said, the offense looks even better and the defense can hold up its end of the bargain. It’s Super Bowl or bust for the Cowboys.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
StatFox Steve's Take: As tough as the NFC East may look on paper, I personally believe that Dallas is the only team without any legitimate question marks headed into 2010. I love the fact that the Cowboys won down the stretch last season too, an important change for the franchise. I'm looking at 11 wins or more. OVER.
Broncos hope to recover from late-season collapse
By: StatFox
Josh McDaniels certainly made a splash in his first year with the Broncos franchise. On the field, the 2009 season was marked by highs, a 6-0 start, and lows, a 4-game losing streak to close the season. Off the field, the news was just as noteworthy, We'll break some of that down for you as our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Denver Broncos.
DENVER BRONCOS
2009 Record:8-8 (-9.1 ML Units), 9-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Josh McDaniels, 2nd year (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Invesco Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, AFC Title:30 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:17 (#21 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-0.1 (#19 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 23-25 (48%)
ATS: 9-7 ~ 18-30 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 10-14 (42%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 6-12 (33%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 13-23 (36%)
Favorite ATS: 3-3 ~ 6-18 (25%)
Underdog ATS: 6-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 28-20 (58%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +0.1 (#18 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +26.4 (#13 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.28 (#15 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.15 (#22 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +7 (#6 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 341.4 (#15 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 315 (#7 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 19.31 (25th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - NY JETS, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - OAKLAND, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - vs. San Francisco (London), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:05 PM
11/22/10 - at San Diego, 8:30 PM
11/28/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 - HOUSTON, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# DENVER is 1-14 ATS (-14.4 Units) vs. excellent passing teams with a completion pct. of 64% or better since '07. The Average Score was DENVER 15, OPPONENT 31.7
2010 OUTLOOK
Josh McDaniels’ first season as head coach at Denver was filled with ups and downs, as the Broncos got off to a 6-0 start only to lose eight of their last 10 games, missing the postseason. It didn’t get much better since. Two key figures parted ways with the team—DC Mike Nolan and All-Pro WR Brandon Marshall, traded to Miami…Newly acquired QB Brady Quinn will backup Kyle Orton, who set career-highs for completion percentage (62.1), yards (3,802) and TD passes (21). High-profile draftee Tim Tebow is likely to play in only certain sets. Marshall may have been trouble off the field, but his production will be missed on it. Rookie Demaryius Thomas (1a-Georgia Tech) was drafted to replace the superstar, and has similar size to Marshall’s. Knowshon Moreno is comes off a rookie campaign in which he rushed for 947 yards and seven touchdowns. The offensive line needs Ryan Clady to recover fully from a partially torn patellar tendon…Don Martindale was promoted from linebackers coach to coordinator when Nolan left, and he’ll continue to run the 3-4 scheme that ranked third in the NFL in pass defense (186.3 YPG) and seventh in total defense (315.0). The Broncos went the free-agent route to shore up the line, with three new players expected to start, DT Jamal Williams plus ends Justin Bannan and Jarvis Green. The LB corps is strong, led by Elvis Dumervil, who paced the NFL with 17 sacks. The secondary is a veteran unit that still gets the job done, led by ageless FS Brian Dawkins and CB Champ Bailey…The early season schedule is tough, so don’t expect as fast a start as last year. But if the Broncos can get to .500 before the bye week, they have a chance to vie for a playoff spot.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: The Broncos were only 8-8 last season despite winning their first six games. This year's team, minus its most crucial offensive weapon doesn't seem to have "more" than a year ago. I see them taking a step back, especially with Kansas City and Oakland seemingly improved. UNDER.
Reason to finally believe in the Detroit Lions?
By: StatFox
For a team that has won only three games per season over the last four years, there certainly seems to be a lot of optimism surrounding the Detroit Lions' franchise. Perhaps it's well-founded. After all, the Lions finally have their quarterback of the future in place in Matt Stafford, they have one of the league's best wideouts in Calvin Johnson, and now, they have added several other potential breakout players through the draft and free agency. Will the results finally show on the field? Let's take an early look at the 2010 Detroit Lions.
DETROIT LIONS
2009 Record:2-14 (-10.6 ML Units), 4-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Jim Schwartz, 2nd year (2-14 SU, 4-10 ATS)
STADIUM:Ford Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:7 (#31 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-13 (#31 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 2-14 ~ 9-39 (19%)
ATS: 4-10 ~ 17-28 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 8-15 (35%)
Road ATS: 1-5 ~ 9-13 (41%)
Division ATS: 0-5 ~ 6-10 (38%)
Conference ATS: 2-8 ~ 11-22 (33%)
Favorite ATS: 0-2 ~ 2-4 (33%)
Underdog ATS: 4-8 ~ 15-24 (38%)
Over-Under: 8-8 ~ 29-18 (62%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -14.5 (#31 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -93.1 (#30 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.49 (#31 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -5.54 (#30 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -19 (#32 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 299 (#26 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 392.1 (#32 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.75 (3rd toughest of 32)
9/12/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - NY JETS, 1:00 PM
11/11/10 - at Buffalo, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 12:30 PM
12/5/10 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# DETROIT is on a 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) skid vs. teams scoring 14 or less PPG The Average Score was DETROIT 20.7, OPPONENT 22.8
2010 OUTLOOK
Remember where you read it first—the Lions will be tougher to tame in 2010. A major splash in the draft, a couple of key free agents and a year of experience under QB Matthew Stafford’s belt are three reasons why Detroit is a strong candidate to take a considerable step up the ladder just two years removed from a winless season…The two-win Lions of ’09 had their moments on offense while Stafford got acclimated to coordinator Scott Linehan’s playbook and is bound to improve with a better supporting cast. Calvin Johnson (67 catches, 984 yards, 5 TD’s) is quickly developing a rapport with Stafford and is joined in the receiving corps by WR Nate Burleson and TE Tony Scheffler. The running game disappointed, ranking 24th in yards. Enter Jahvid Best (1b-California), who brings speed and big-play ability to a unit in desperate for both…In the big picture, Detroit improved its defense during the offseason but is moving forward without its most productive member in recent years, LB Ernie Sims as well as tackle leader Larry Foote. The Lions allowed more yards (392.1 per game) and points (494) than anyone and managed only 26 sacks. A major facelift on the front four can help fiery coordinator Gunther Cunningham get things moving in the right direction via warp speed. Tackle Ndamukong Suh (1a-Nebraska) is a rare talent and was the most dominant player in college football last season. Schwartz put most of his free-agent eggs in the basket of veteran end Kyle Vanden Bosch (Titans) as well…Nobody’s expecting the Lions to go from worst to first in a division likely to produce two playoff teams, but maybe they can show they’re no longer pushovers. The rookies will contribute on each side of the ball, and as long as the Stafford-Johnson combination is healthy it won’t be such a terrible year.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5
StatFox Steve's Take: Most experts believe that Detroit will be improved in 2010, but by how much? One game, two, three? It would take a 3-win improvement to reach the 5-11 mark. That may be optimistic considering the Lions face the 3rd toughest schedule in the NFL. I'll pass on this one.
Expectations are high for Packers in 2010
By: StatFox
The Green Bay Packers were one of the NFL's best teams in the second half of the 2009 season, and led all teams in yardage differential overall. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers enjoyed a huge season and may be ready to step up among the game's elite this fall. The defense was equally or even more effective however, and with the Pack returning nearly intact, needless to say, expectations are high, and their sights are set on the Vikings' reign of the NFC North. Let's preview the 2010 Green Bay Packers as we continue our team-by-team series.
GREEN BAY PACKERS
2009 Record:11-6 (-1.8 ML Units), 11-5 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Mike McCarthy, 5th year (39-28 SU, 39-25 ATS)
STADIUM:Lambeau Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:12 to 1, NFC Title:4.5 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:29 (#3 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+7.3 (#5 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-6 ~ 31-20 (61%)
ATS: 11-5 ~ 31-17 (65%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 5-2 ~ 15-9 (63%)
Road ATS: 6-3 ~ 16-8 (67%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 13-5 (72%)
Conference ATS: 8-4 ~ 23-14 (62%)
Favorite ATS: 8-4 ~ 19-12 (61%)
Underdog ATS: 3-1 ~ 11-4 (73%)
Over-Under: 9-8 ~ 31-18 (63%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +9.3 (#3 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +86.9 (#1 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.86 (#4 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +1.63 (#12 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +24 (#1 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 385.8 (#3 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 298.9 (#3 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.5 (19th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
9/27/10 - at Chicago, 8:30 PM
10/3/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - MINNESOTA, 8:20 PM
10/31/10 - at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - DALLAS, 8:20 PM
11/21/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at New England, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - NY GIANTS, 4:15 PM
1/2/11 - CHICAGO, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# GREEN BAY is on a 12-1 ATS (+10.9 Units) run at home vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 6+ PPG The Average Score was GREEN BAY 25.2, OPPONENT 14.9
2010 OUTLOOK
Head coach Mike McCarthy and the Packers would love to pick up where they left off last season when they steamrolled to a 7-1 record over the second half and came within a turnover of a road playoff win. Green Bay held six of its last eight regular-season opponents to 14 points or fewer while scoring at least 27 in six second-half games. With starpower on each side of the ball in QB Aaron Rodgers and NFL Defensive POY Charles Woodson, how far the Packers go may ultimately depend on their offensive line…For someone sacked more than any other QB, Rodgers didn’t let the pressure get to him. He’ll come into 2010 with as much confidence as anyone after a huge year (4,434 yards, 30:7 TD-Int ratio). The biggest question mark in Green Bay is up front, where age is starting to catch up. GM Ted Thompson made tackle Bryan Bulaga (1-Iowa) the 23rd pick of the draft. The running game was solid behind Ryan Grant, but not explosive. The Packers had eight players catch at least 20 passes from Rodgers, led by WR’s Donald Driver & Greg Jennings, and TE Jermichael Finley, who could be the league’s best at the position by the end of 2010…DC Dom Capers was a key factor in turning around a defense that ranked 26th against the run and had 27 sacks in 2008. In its first year under Capers, the new 3-4 unit led the NFL in rushing defense (83.3 YPG) and ranked No. 5 against the pass. Rookie Clay Matthews had a huge year, and while the secondary isn’t young, it is loaded with playmakers… Rodgers appears to have elevated himself to an elite quarterback, and no defense did a better job against the run or making big plays. The Packers meet all the criteria of a Super Bowl contender and should challenge for the NFC crown.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
StatFox Steve's Take: The Packers were 11-5 a season ago with a team that was young and still growing at many key positions. For the most part, those youngsters flourished and now are heading into the 2010 season with the weight of expectations on their shoulders. Like Peter King of Sports Illustrated, I see this as one of the most dynamic and complete teams in the NFL. The sky's the limit. Certain OVER barring a Rodgers' injury.
Texans eye first playoff berth in 2010
By: StatFox
After winning a franchise high nine games in 2009, the Houston Texans have set a reachable goal of qualifying for a first ever playoff berth this season. Why shouldn't they make the playoffs? Houston had the top ranked passing attack in the NFL last fall, the league's defensive rookie of the year in LB Brian Cushing, and starts the season on a 4-game carryover winning streak. Indianapolis, take notice. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Houston Texans.
HOUSTON TEXANS
2009 Record:9-7 (+1.5 ML Units), 7-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Gary Kubiak, 5th year (31-33 SU, 31-32 ATS)
STADIUM:Reliant Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:24 (#11 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+1.8 (#14 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 9-7 ~ 25-23 (52%)
ATS: 7-8 ~ 24-23 (51%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-5 (55%)
Home ATS: 2-5 ~ 13-10 (57%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 11-13 (46%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 18-18 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 3-6 ~ 9-13 (41%)
Underdog ATS: 4-2 ~ 15-10 (60%)
Over-Under: 5-10 ~ 24-22 (52%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.4 (#11 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +58.0 (#7 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.53 (#11 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.20 (#15 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +0 (#18 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 382.8 (#5 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 324.8 (#13 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.5 (6th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Washington, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - DALLAS, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
11/1/10 - at Indianapolis, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 - SAN DIEGO, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at NY Jets, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
12/2/10 - at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM
12/13/10 - BALTIMORE, 8:30 PM
12/19/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# HOUSTON is 9-0 UNDER the total (+9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record since '07. The Average Score was HOUSTON 23, OPPONENT 14.9
2010 OUTLOOK
Houston has never been to the playoffs, but came close last season with a 9-7 record. While many believe this could finally be the year for a postseason berth, the team took a big hit when LB Brian Cushing, the 2009 NFL Defensive ROY, was suspended for the first four games of the ‘10 campaign…QB Matt Schaub comes off his best season yet (396 completions, 4,770 yards). Both were #1 in the NFL and career highs, as was his number of touchdowns (29). Most importantly, he played in all 16 games. Much of Schaub’s success can be attributed to having one of the best wide receivers in the game at his disposal in Andre Johnson (101 catches, 1,569 yards). Running back Steve Slaton endured a sophomore slump (seven fumbles) before suffering a season-ending neck injury in Week 13. Arian Foster showed flashes of brilliance in his two starts and will get a shot to earn the starting job. Schaub’s stats are even more impressive when one considers that he plays behind an average offensive line…The stop unit was an improved group, having ranked tied for 13th in total yardage and 10th in rushing yards. Cushing’s outstanding debut had a lot to do with the improvement and his absence will be tough to overcome early. The line is solid and should be even better with end Mario Williams healthy after battling through a shoulder injury last season. Strong safety Bernard Pollard comes off an outstanding first year with the Texans after signing as a free agent…Houston is ready to take that next step. The Texans won’t pass Indianapolis in the race for the AFC South crown, but the talent is certainly there to earn a wild-card spot in the playoffs. If they can win two of the four games without Cushing, and improve their division record, they’ll see the postseason for the first time.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8
StatFox Steve's Take: Over the last three seasons, Houston has won nine, nine, and eight games. This is a franchise that certainly appears to be on the rise, one capable of a first-ever postseason berth. The problem I see is that there really isn't a certain win at any point on the schedule. Look for 8-8 or perhaps 9-7.
Colts look for 10th straight postseason berth
By: StatFox
As the Colts embark on a season that they hope could produce a league-record 10th straight postseason berth, they are showing very few signs of slowing down. While true that they did come up short in the Super Bowl to New Orleans last February, the 2009 season was another wildly successful campaign for Indianapolis. With Peyton Manning back under center and the rest of the corps still intact, the Colts have to again be considered one of the AFC favorites this fall. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Indianapolis Colts.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2009 Record:16-3 (+12 ML Units), 12-7 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Jim Caldwell, 2nd year (16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Lucas Oil Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:6 to 1, AFC Title:3 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:27 (#8 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+7.1 (#6 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 16-3 ~ 41-12 (77%)
ATS: 12-7 ~ 28-24 (54%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 4-8 (33%)
Home ATS: 5-5 ~ 13-14 (48%)
Road ATS: 7-2 ~ 15-10 (60%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 9-5 ~ 20-19 (51%)
Favorite ATS: 11-6 ~ 22-21 (51%)
Underdog ATS: 1-1 ~ 5-3 (63%)
Over-Under: 10-9 ~ 26-27 (49%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +6.8 (#9 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +23.3 (#14 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.91 (#2 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.73 (#4 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 362.5 (#9 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 339.2 (#18 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.31 (21st toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM
9/26/10 - at Denver, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Washington, 8:20 PM
11/1/10 - HOUSTON, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 - at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
11/14/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at New England, 4:15 PM
11/28/10 - SAN DIEGO, 8:20 PM
12/5/10 - DALLAS, 4:15 PM
12/9/10 - at Tennessee, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# INDIANAPOLIS is on a 23-4 OVER the total (+18.6 Units) run on the road coming off an upset loss as a favorite The Average Score was INDIANAPOLIS 23.9, OPPONENT 28.1
2010 OUTLOOK
In Jim Caldwell’s first season as head coach in Indianapolis, the Colts, despite injuries to key players on both sides of scrimmage, went to their second Super Bowl in four years and finished a decade that saw them go 115-45. It was the winningest 10-year span in NFL history and, this year, Indianapolis will try to get into the record book with a league-tying ninth straight postseason berth. Caldwell has made some changes to his staff on offense, with coordinator Clyde Christensen taking over for Tom Moore as the main play caller…QB Peyton Manning won his second-straight NFL MVP award, throwing 393 completions for 4,500 yards and a 68.8 completion rate, all team records. He also had a 33:16 TD-Int ratio. And as if Manning didn’t have enough weapons with All-Pros Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, he should have a healthy Anthony Gonzalez back at his disposal, plus youngsters Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie. Manning will once again play behind arguably the league’s best line when the ball is put in the air. If there is one knock on the offense, it’s the virtual lack of a running game. It finished last in the league in ground YPG…Had the stop unit been healthy in the Super Bowl, the Colts could well be the defending champion. Still, management thought talent needed to be added, so the top three draft picks were spent on this side of scrimmage. The key will be the health of FS Bob Sanders, who missed all but two games in 2009 with a torn biceps tendon. Draftee DE Jerry Hughes (1-TCU) will have two veteran standouts to learn from in Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis…The Colts could well get back to the Super Bowl for the third time in five years. Manning shows no signs of slowing down and the defense should improve if healthy. Another division title is likely.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 11
StatFox Steve's Take: The Colts boast the highest regular season wins prop in the NFL, fitting since they quite possibly could have gone 16-0 last year if they "wanted to". With the 21st toughest schedule in the league, Indianapolis could probably win 11 games in its sleep, and the only thing that could deter them is an injury to Manning. We all know that never happens. OVER.
Jaguars hoping to pick up the pieces in 2010
By: StatFox
The Jaguars have certainly headed the wrong direction since their successful 2007 campaign, winning just 12 games in the two seasons since. Last year the botton fell out for this team in the final month, as they lost their final four games to fall out of the playoff pictures. So, with little momentum nor any noteworthy offseason acquisitions, Jacksonville fans aren't exactly singing the praises of their team heading into 2010. We continue our look at each NFL team's prospects, today focusing on the Jacksonville Jaguars.
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS
2009 Record:7-9 (-0.8 ML Units), 5-11 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Jack Del Rio, 8th year (58-57 SU, 55-57 ATS)
STADIUM:Jacksonville Municipal Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:60 to 1, AFC Title:30 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-6.5 (#25 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 7-9 ~ 24-26 (48%)
ATS: 5-11 ~ 21-29 (42%)
Preseason ATS: 2-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 3-5 ~ 13-13 (50%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 17-21 (45%)
Favorite ATS: 0-5 ~ 7-15 (32%)
Underdog ATS: 5-6 ~ 14-14 (50%)
Over-Under: 8-8 ~ 27-21 (56%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -5.6 (#25 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -15.3 (#22 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.39 (#23 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -3.82 (#28 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +2 (#13 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 336.8 (#18 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 352.1 (#22 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.81 (14th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - DENVER, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
10/18/10 - TENNESSEE, 8:30 PM
10/24/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - HOUSTON, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# Over the L2 seasons, JACKSONVILLE is 0-10 ATS (-11 Units) as home favorites. The Average Score was JACKSONVILLE 18.8, OPPONENT 22.7
2010 OUTLOOK
It’s not hard to figure out why the fans don’t show up to Jacksonville games. The Jaguars were one of the worst teams in the NFL in PPG, despite possessing one of the league’s top offensive stars in RB Maurice Jones-Drew. The problem is, the rest of the team is a mess. QB David Garrard has regressed, and there are problems galore with the defense…Garrard has yet to show that he is an elite signal-caller. He completed 314 of 516 pass attempts for 3,597 yards, 15 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last year, but twice failed to lead the team to game-winning drives late in the season. Jones-Drew was given a chance to carry the load on his own last year and he responded with a second-team All-Pro campaign in which he rushed for career highs in carries (312), yards (1,391) and touchdowns (16). Surprisingly, the Jaguars did not draft a WR to help a beleaguered unit, but they did pick one up in free agency, Kassim Osgood (Chargers). Garrard was hit plenty, so the line needs to step up…The Jaguars’ woes on defense (27th in the NFL against the pass, 23rd overall) started with the pass rush, or rather the lack of it. They recorded a league-low 14 sacks, the fifth-lowest total in NFL history, so the Jags’ first four draft picks were spent on the line. The Jaguars also traded for middle LB Kirk Morrison, who had 133 tackles and two sacks with the Raiders last season…With the Colts expected to be their usual explosive selves and the Texans on the rise, it looks like the best the Jaguars can do is battle the Titans to stay out of the AFC South basement. If Jacksonville does not respond this season, it could be the end of the road for head coach Jack Del Rio.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7
StatFox Steve's Take: Jacksonville was 7-9 a year ago, matching the regular season win prop set for 2010. At this point, you have to ask yourself…is there any reason the Jaguars should be better this fall? With Indy still the class of the AFC South, and Houston and Tennessee in better shape, I just can't see this team winning more than they did a year ago. Plus, they're 9-23 ATS over the last two seasons, an indicator of a spiraling team. UNDER.
Chiefs emulating Patriots' run of success
By: StatFox
It's been said that Bill Belichick's Patriots have laid the blueprint for success in this era of NFL football. It such is true, the Chiefs have to be hoping that getting Belichick's top two coordinators from their Super Bowl run is the answer to what has been ailing the Kansas City franchise. The Chiefs have won just 10 games in three seasons but by most accounts, look ready to make a jump in the suspect AFC West Division. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Kansas City Chiefs.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
2009 Record:4-12 (-2.2 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Todd Haley, 2nd year (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS)
STADIUM:Arrowhead Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-8.8 (#29 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 4-12 ~ 10-38 (21%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 22-25 (47%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 1-11 (8%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 6-17 (26%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 16-8 (67%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 17-19 (47%)
Favorite ATS: 0-2 ~ 0-6 (0%)
Underdog ATS: 7-7 ~ 22-19 (54%)
Over-Under: 9-5 ~ 25-21 (54%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -8.1 (#27 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -86.3 (#28 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.09 (#28 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.75 (#24 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 301.8 (#25 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 388.1 (#30 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18 (30th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - SAN DIEGO, 10:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
11/14/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
11/21/10 - ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - DENVER, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# KANSAS CITY is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) vs. awful passing defenses - allowing a comp. pct. of 64% or worse since '07. The Average Score was KANSAS CITY 21.1, OPPONENT 22
2010 OUTLOOK
The Chiefs have won just 10 games combined since ‘07, including a 4-12 mark in head coach Todd Haley’s debut. Changes needed to be made so Kansas City went out and hired the two most successful assistant coaches on the market, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel, who helped orchestrate the New England “dynasty”…Weis takes over an offense that ranked just 25th in the NFL with 303.2 YPG. His first order of business is molding QB Matt Cassel into a player worthy of a $63 million contract. Cassel has the tools, but was inconsistent in his first season with the Chiefs, matching 16 touchdowns with 16 interceptions. Weis will get to work with arguably the best backfield of his coaching career as emerging Jamaal Charles is joined by veteran Thomas Jones (Jets) and all-purpose threat Dexter McCluster (2a-Ole Miss). Dwayne Bowe returns as Cassel’s favorite target. The line needs to improve after allowing 42 sacks. Center Casey Wiegmann (Broncos) and guard Ryan Lilja (Colts)—were signed to bring a veteran presence…Crennel may have an even harder task than Weis as he builds a defense that ranked 31st in the league against the run (156.5 YPG) and 30th overall (388.2). To help with stopping the run, the Chiefs are mulling the idea of moving end Glenn Dorsey to nose tackle. The LB corps was a surprise last year when the Chiefs moved to a 3-4 scheme. Former end Tamba Hali came on strong as an outside linebacker and the team’s top two tacklers—Demorrio Williams and Corey Mays are back. The secondary needed some help, and got it in Eric Berry (1-Tennessee), perhaps the finest all around player available in this past draft…There’s plenty to be optimistic about in Kansas City, and the Chiefs could finish as high as second in the AFC West, but are still steps below the Chargers.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 6.5
StatFox Steve's Take: I am convinced that either Kansas City or Oakland will be much-improved in 2010, and considering that the Chiefs have the 3rd weakest schedule in the NFL, it could very likely be them. Still, winning seven games would mean a 3-game improvement, somewhat significant. I see better things for 2011 or 2012 but will slightly lean OVER for this fall.