It's been up & down for Dolphins of late
By: StatFox
It's been a roller coaster ride for the Miami franchise over the last six or seven years, as the Dolphins have had little success in putting good campaigns back-to-back. This past season, they dropped from 11 to 7 wins and out of the playoffs. However, with Chad Henne now in the unquestioned role of starting quarterback and the key acquisition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall, Miami may have the pieces in place to get back to the postseason. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Miami Dolphins.
MIAMI DOLPHINS
2009 Record:7-9 (-1.3 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Tony Sparano, 3rd year (18-15 SU, 16-17 ATS)
STADIUM:Dolphins Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:40 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:20 (#16 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+0.3 (#18 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 7-9 ~ 19-30 (39%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 21-26 (45%)
Preseason ATS: 3-0 ~ 8-3 (73%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 6-18 (25%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-8 (65%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 10-7 (59%)
Conference ATS: 7-5 ~ 19-17 (53%)
Favorite ATS: 1-3 ~ 3-10 (23%)
Underdog ATS: 7-5 ~ 18-16 (53%)
Over-Under: 9-6 ~ 24-24 (50%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -1.9 (#20 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -12 (#20 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.82 (#26 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -0.68 (#19 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 339.4 (#17 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 351.4 (#21 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.88 (13th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - NY JETS, 8:20 PM
10/4/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
11/18/10 - CHICAGO, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at NY Jets, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at New England, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# MIAMI is on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run at home revenging a home loss against opponent The Average Score was MIAMI 19.4, OPPONENT 14
2010 OUTLOOK
A hiccup was expected in some respects after Miami improved from one win to 11 in head coach Tony Sparano’s first season at the helm. But rest assured that director of football operations, Bill Parcells, will not be happy with another mediocre showing in the win column. The Dolphins weathered a storm of injuries that knocked out a host of key players on both sides of the ball to find themselves in the thick of the playoff race in December…QB Chad Henne had a solid year considering the lackluster supporting cast he was surrounded by. The top three wide receivers combined for five touchdowns between them as Miami focused its offense around the tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams in the backfield. So Parcells and his team acquired Brandon Marshall (Broncos) for two draft picks and gave their franchise QB exactly what he needed, a franchise wide receiver. On his own, Marshall grabbed 10 touchdowns—and finished third in the NFL with 101 receptions. Defenses should no longer be able load up on the run. Guards Richie Incognito (Bills) joins an emerging line that also includes left tackle Jake Long…Much like the offense, the defense lacked an impact player, but Parcells and the coaching staff added more than one single player to turn around a unit that finished No. 22 in the NFL. The signing of Karlos Dansby (Cardinals) was the big ticket move, but the team also used seven of its eight draft picks on defense… All things being equal, the Jets are the clear alpha dog in the AFC East. The Patriots, however, could be ripe for the taking. Don’t be fooled by Miami’s stumble to the finish. The return of Brown and addition of Marshall might be enough to push the Dolphins back over the playoff bubble.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
StatFox Steve's Take: There are a number of things I'm not sold on about this Miami team. First, Chad Henne is not an automatic for me at QB yet. Second, any team that runs the wildcat as regularly as the Dolphins is relying too much on gimmicks. Third, Miami ranked 20th in the NFL last year in scoring and yardage differential. Fourth, and finally, I'm not ready to dismiss New England yet. It all adds up to a playoff-less season in South Beach. UNDER.
Vikings hoping to make another run at it
By: StatFox
Almost everything about the Minnesota Vikings' 2009 season was magical, that is except for the nightmarish ending. What had gone so well for Brett Favre & the Vikings turned in an instant on an interception in the NFC title game. While Favre has yet to commit for 2010, most experts believe he is coming back. Still, it might be difficult to recapture the magic that defined his first campaign with the team. Let's look closer at the prospects of the 2010 Minnesota Vikings as our season previews continue.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS
2009 Record:13-5 (+2 ML Units), 11-6 ATS
DIVISION:NFC North
COACH:Brad Childress, 5th year (37-30 SU, 31-33 ATS)
STADIUM:Metrodome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, NFC Title:7 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:29 (#3 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+9.4 (#2 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 13-5 ~ 31-20 (61%)
ATS: 11-6 ~ 24-24 (50%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 6-2 ~ 13-12 (52%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 11-12 (48%)
Division ATS: 4-1 ~ 7-9 (44%)
Conference ATS: 9-4 ~ 18-19 (49%)
Favorite ATS: 9-5 ~ 16-13 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 8-8 (50%)
Over-Under: 9-9 ~ 27-24 (53%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +9.9 (#2 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +74.1 (#3 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.56 (#10 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.76 (#7 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +6 (#8 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 379.6 (#6 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 305.5 (#6 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.63 (18th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/9/10 - at New Orleans, 8:30 PM
9/19/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
10/11/10 - at NY Jets, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - DALLAS, 4:15 PM
10/24/10 - at Green Bay, 8:20 PM
10/31/10 - at New England, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - ARIZONA, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM
12/20/10 - CHICAGO, 8:30 PM
12/26/10 - at Philadelphia, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# MINNESOTA is on a 5-19 ATS (-15.9 Units) skid vs. poor passing teams averaging 5.7 or less PYA The Average Score was MINNESOTA 22.3, OPPONENT 21.4
2010 OUTLOOK
Brett Favre and the Vikings caught lightning in a bottle last fall, but missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl when Favre threw a costly late interception in the devastating 31-28 overtime loss at New Orleans. As difficult an ending it was, the road to the conference title game had few bumps and many Hollywood moments. Favre’s offseason ankle surgery suggests he’s coming back for more, and there’s no reason to believe Minnesota isn’t capable of an encore…Only the Saints scored more points than the Vikings, who averaged 29.4 PPG. They ranked fifth in total yards (379.6 per game) as well and picking up where they left off should be no problem. Favre would be coming off what he’s calling the best season of his 19-year career. The air attack features a bona fide star in Sidney Rice, who broke out with 83 receptions, 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns. RB Adrian Peterson is the best in the business but had trouble holding onto the ball for the first time in his career, fumbling nine times. The front line returns intact, and is considered one of the league’s best…Running the ball against the Vikings hasn’t been a good idea since 2006. The stop unit has led the league in rushing defense for three consecutive seasons and ranked No. 2 a year ago. The unit wasn’t too shabby against the pass, either, topping the league in sacks with 48. DE Jared Allen has been a nightmare for opposing offenses in his two years in Minnesota. If there’s any weakness, the secondary could prove porous…The Vikings are seeking a third straight playoff appearance and probably won’t be pleased with anything less than a trip to the Super Bowl. Assuming Favre is a go, they’ve got all the pieces in place and will be playing in January.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Assuming Favre comes back, Minnesota is as good as it was last season, that is at least, on paper. A lot of what happened last season was as a result of a wave of momentum. I can't possibly see it going as well this fall as last. With the league's most difficult road schedule, this one is going to be tough, but a shaky OVER for me. 10-6.
Patriots out to prove detractors wrong in 2010
By: StatFox
There are many football fans out there that believe the Patriots' home loss to Baltimore last Januray, the first in the Bill Belichick era, signaled the end of the dynasty. Others argue it may have ended in the Super Bowl XLII loss since they haven't won a playoff game since. Regardless, it's quite obvious that New England has to earn its respect back as they are no longer the feared team they once were. In fact, they aren't even the favorite in the AFC East this fall. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 New England Patriots.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS
2009 Record:10-7 (-0.7 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Bill Belichick, 11th year (126-52 SU, 101-73 ATS)
STADIUM:Gillette Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, AFC Title:5 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:26 (#9 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+8.4 (#3 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 10-7 ~ 39-13 (75%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 27-24 (53%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 4-8 (33%)
Home ATS: 5-4 ~ 13-14 (48%)
Road ATS: 3-4 ~ 14-10 (58%)
Division ATS: 1-4 ~ 9-8 (53%)
Conference ATS: 6-6 ~ 21-17 (55%)
Favorite ATS: 6-7 ~ 24-22 (52%)
Underdog ATS: 2-1 ~ 3-2 (60%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 26-24 (52%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.2 (#7 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +68.4 (#5 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.38 (#12 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.08 (#11 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +6 (#8 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 385.5 (#4 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 317.1 (#9 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.63 (4th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at NY Jets, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
10/4/10 - at Miami, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at San Diego, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - MINNESOTA, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Pittsburgh, 8:20 PM
11/21/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
11/25/10 - at Detroit, 12:30 PM
12/6/10 - NY JETS, 8:30 PM
12/12/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - GREEN BAY, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# NEW ENGLAND is on a 21-5 ATS (+15.5 Units) run vs. marginal winning teams (Win Pct. 51% to 60%) The Average Score was NEW ENGLAND 24.9, OPPONENT 16
2010 OUTLOOK
For years Bill Belichick has had the perfect blend of veterans, players hitting their prime and rookies to learn the ropes of the system, allowing the Patriots to turn in a dynasty that lasted nearly a decade. But after New England had its doors blown off by Baltimore in the wild-card round, 33-14, it was evident that the equation changed enough to force drastic changes or the Patriots risked getting buried in the AFC. Belichick is set to take over the controls on both offense and defense as he tries to steady the ship…As long as Tom Brady is healthy—and that was a major question last season despite 4,398 yards passing and 28 touchdowns—he’ll carry the offense on his right arm. The weapons surrounding him are getting older, most notably Randy Moss (33 years old), but the offensive line is still at the top of its game, so protection shouldn’t be an issue. And when Brady has time to throw, he’ll find the open guy. Brady was sacked just 16 times and despite the lack of a dominant runner—Laurence Maroney led the way with 757 yards—New England still ranked 12th in rushing (120.1 YPG). If offseason reports are true, WR Wes Welker, who led the league with 123 catches, could be back in uniform for Week 1 after tearing an ACL in the season finale…The stop unit is going to get a major facelift, if not this fall, then certainly by the start of 2011. Belichick has started laying the new foundation to help out the centerpiece, LB Jerod Mayo, by adding fresh blood at every level of the unit…Little separated New England from the rest of the AFC East pack last season, and for once, age appears to be more than just a number. The franchise isn’t down & out but might finish out of the playoffs.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
StatFox Steve's Take: The early schedule doesn't do any favors for the Patriots as they look to start fast and erase the memories of last January's playoff loss. The first seven games are made up of five defending playoff teams and two other divisional foes. Still, Tom Brady is still around and remains one of the best in the business. I'll lean slightly over and look for a 10-6 campaign.
Saints at the top of the mountain to start 2010
By: StatFox
There's an old saying that indicates there is only one way to go when you reach the top…down. Well, the Saints reached the top of the NFL last February, upsetting the Colts in an epic Super Bowl. Now comes the quest to repeat. It starts however with the division, as no NFC South team has ever won back-to-back division titles. Let's preview the 2010 New Orleans Saints, who for the first time ever, play as the hunted team heading into a season.
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
2009 Record:16-3 (+4.1 ML Units), 10-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:Sean Payton, 5th year (42-27 SU, 36-32 ATS)
STADIUM:Louisiana Superdome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:9 to 1, NFC Title:3.5 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:30 (#1 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+10.6 (#1 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 16-3 ~ 31-20 (61%)
ATS: 10-9 ~ 26-24 (52%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 8-5 (62%)
Home ATS: 5-5 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Division ATS: 1-5 ~ 6-11 (35%)
Conference ATS: 7-9 ~ 18-21 (46%)
Favorite ATS: 9-8 ~ 20-16 (56%)
Underdog ATS: 1-1 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Over-Under: 9-10 ~ 29-21 (58%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +10.6 (#1 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +46.1 (#9 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.78 (#7 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +4.14 (#3 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +12 (#3 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 403.9 (#1 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 357.8 (#24 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.19 (22nd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/9/10 - MINNESOTA, 8:30 PM
9/20/10 - at San Francisco, 8:30 PM
9/26/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Arizona, 4:05 PM
10/17/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM
11/7/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
11/25/10 - at Dallas, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM
12/19/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
12/27/10 - at Atlanta, 8:30 PM
1/2/11 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# Over the L2 seasons, NEW ORLEANS is 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) in non-conference games. The Average Score was NEW ORLEANS 33.2, OPPONENT 19.3
2010 OUTLOOK
While not at the typical post-championship level, New Orleans did experience some of the roster raid that comes with being at the top of the profession. Some key contributors, including RB Mike Bell and LB Scott Fujita, skipped town while others were still tied up in free agency, but the fact the Saints return somewhat intact makes another deep playoff run a strong possibility…Coming off four consecutive seasons with at least 4,368 yards passing, few quarterbacks have the leeway of Drew Brees in Payton’s aggressive West Coast offense. Brees is the total package under center, falling just shy of an NFL record for completion percentage (70.6), and he is surrounded by a diverse group of pass catchers. Seven different players grabbed at least 39 throws and all return to the huddle, led by Marques Colston (70 catches, 1,074 yards, nine scores). The loss of Bell, the short-yardage runner among the three-headed backfield attack, shouldn’t impact much. Pierre Thomas ran for a team-high 793 yards and six scores and looked the part of a lead back during the playoff run. He still gives way to Reggie Bush in certain pass situations. Brees directed the NFL’s best offense behind a line that had three Pro Bowl selections—all five starters return…Coordinator Gregg Williams’ defenses create turnovers, 39 last year, and eight were brought back for touchdowns, breaking the backs of opponents. Don’t be fooled by the team’s low ranking against the pass (26th), since most opponents were playing catch-up. The loss of Fujita may sting in the short term, but Jonathan Vilma’s presence (110 tackles) in the middle will aid any transition at the position…Navigating a defending champion’s schedule will be tough, as will playing as the hunted team, but the Saints’ explosiveness gives them a strong chance to defend their title.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 10.5
StatFox Steve's Take: I've mentioned the trend of a NFC South team never winning back-to-back titles on several occasions now. This Saints team to me seems like the first one probable to do it, and for one reason, Drew Brees. As long as he is under center, the Saints have the best quarterback in the division. The rest is gravy. I look for a 11-5 or 12-4 season. OVER.
Giants begin new era seeking redemption
By: StatFox
The Giants opened the 2009 season by winning their first five games in Giant-like fashion. However, a 48-27 loss in Week 6 to eventual champion New Orleans sent New York on a downward spiral the likes of which could not be imagined. They were just 3-8 SU & 2-9 ATS the rest of the way while allowing 32.4 PPG. Now a redemptive Giants team begins a first season in their New Meadowlands home, hoping to compete in what figures to be a challenging NFC East Division.
NEW YORK GIANTS
2009 Record:8-8 (-7.5 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Tom Coughlin, 7th year (59-44 SU, 59-42 ATS)
STADIUM:New Meadowlands Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:20 to 1, NFC Title:9 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:20 (#16 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-0.6 (#20 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 34-19 (64%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 33-20 (62%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 4-6 (40%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 13-12 (52%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 20-8 (71%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 12-8 (60%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 25-15 (63%)
Favorite ATS: 5-6 ~ 19-14 (58%)
Underdog ATS: 2-3 ~ 13-6 (68%)
Over-Under: 11-4 ~ 29-23 (56%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -1.6 (#19 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +42.3 (#10 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.31 (#14 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -2.46 (#25 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -7 (#24 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 366 (#8 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 323.7 (#12 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.44 (8th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Indianapolis, 8:20 PM
9/26/10 - TENNESSEE, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - CHICAGO, 8:20 PM
10/10/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
10/25/10 - at Dallas, 8:30 PM
11/7/10 - at Seattle, 4:05 PM
11/14/10 - DALLAS, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Philadelphia, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Minnesota, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Green Bay, 4:15 PM
1/2/11 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# NY GIANTS are on a 11-0 UNDER the total (+11 Units) run as road favorites of 3.5 to 7 points The Average Score was NY GIANTS 18.8, OPPONENT 12.1
2010 OUTLOOK
The New York Giants franchise has long been known for its bruising running attack and hard-hitting defense. Both misfired last season and as a result, the Giants’ 5-0 start quickly turned into a 3-8 finish marred by blowouts—five losses by at least 20 points. What was once thought to be the most ferocious collection of defensive line talent in the NFL allowed a whopping 26.7 PPG, dropping from second in the NFL to 30th in a span of 12 months with essentially the same personnel…For all of the problems that cropped up, few can be pinned on QB Eli Manning, who turned in the best statistical season of his career (4,021 yards, 27:14 TD-Int ratio). Not bad for a signal-caller that lost his top option (Plaxico Burress) to prison and watched his second-favorite target (Amani Toomer) retire before Week 1 rolled around. In their absence, Steve Smith became a star, finishing with a team-record 107 catches. Mario Manningham also turned in a solid rookie campaign (57 catches, 822 yards, five touchdowns) and Hakeem Nicks (47, 790, 6) also set the bar high. As solid as the wide receivers have become, the running backs—Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw—are inconsistent at best. The line returns mostly intact despite the drop in backfield production…How concerned were the Giants about the freefall the defense experienced? Worried enough to use their first four draft picks on that side of the field. Head coach Tom Coughlin also brought in a pair of safeties via free agency—Antrel Rolle (Cardinals) and safety Deon Grant (Seahawks)—to fortify a unit that was borderline horrific…With a renewed focus on interior line play and a veteran unit on both sides of the field, Big Blue has a chance to bounce back quickly from last season’s hiccup and return to the playoffs.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
StatFox Steve's Take: One of the biggest questions in the NFL this season is how the Giants will respond to their late season freefall of a year ago. Are they the team that started 5-0 or the one that ended 3-8? I speculate its somewhere in between, and with the NFC East looking strong, I'll project a middle of the road finish and lean slightly UNDER 8.5.
2010 Jets loaded for another Super Bowl run
By: StatFox
Since falling short in the AFC Title game last January, the Jets have made many bold moves in hopes of taking the next step or two. In truth, head coach Rex Ryan has as many big name stars scattered over the field now as any other team. Still, their success figures to come down to quarterback Mark Sanchez and whether or not he can avoid the sophomore slump. Whatever happens, Ryan has made sure it will be interesting. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 New York Jets, the AFC East favorites.
NEW YORK JETS
2009 Record:11-8 (-0.3 ML Units), 11-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC East
COACH:Rex Ryan, 2nd year (11-8 SU, 11-8 ATS)
STADIUM:New Meadowlands Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, AFC Title:8 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:28 (#7 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+6.5 (#7 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-8 ~ 24-27 (47%)
ATS: 11-8 ~ 24-26 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 8-3 (73%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 9-14 (39%)
Road ATS: 7-4 ~ 15-12 (56%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 7-10 (41%)
Conference ATS: 9-6 ~ 19-19 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 6-5 ~ 10-15 (40%)
Underdog ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-11 (56%)
Over-Under: 9-9 ~ 24-26 (48%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +7.2 (#8 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +69.6 (#4 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.81 (#5 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +2.49 (#8 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +1 (#15 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 322.9 (#20 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 253.3 (#1 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.38 (20th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - BALTIMORE, 7:00 PM
9/19/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - at Miami, 8:20 PM
10/3/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
10/11/10 - MINNESOTA, 8:30 PM
10/17/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - HOUSTON, 1:00 PM
11/25/10 - CINCINNATI, 8:20 PM
12/6/10 - at New England, 8:30 PM
12/12/10 - MIAMI, 4:15 PM
12/19/10 - at Pittsburgh, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# NY JETS are 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more PYPG since '07. The Average Score was NY JETS 17.8, OPPONENT 21.3
2010 OUTLOOK
Rex Ryan hit New York like a fire-breathing dragon, and when the smoke cleared last January, he proved to bring a lot more than just hot air to the Big Apple. Backed by a rookie QB and the No. 1 defense in the NFL, Ryan led the Jets to the AFC Championship Game and has the franchise aiming even higher in 2010…A 2009 Draft Day trade brought Mark Sanchez to town and despite some expected struggles with turnovers (12:20 TD-Int ratio), Ryan constructed the perfect system to aid in the rookie’s development…The Jets will continue to focus on the run, even if some of the main components are different. At running back, Thomas Jones and Leon Washington are out, and the heavy lifting will now be done by Shonn Green and LaDainian Tomlinson. Ryan dropped guard Alan Faneca, but the line is still borderline dominant after anchoring the No. 1 ground attack in the NFL (172.2 YPG). If any position is make or break for the Jets’ fortunes, it’s at wide receiver. Jerricho Cotchery is as steady as they come, but the tandem of Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes is equally explosive for all the right and wrong reasons…Stars were born on defense when Ryan came to town, and the second-year head coach was not happy to stand pat even after leading the NFL in total defense. Antonio Cromartie and Jason Taylor join a defensive cast loaded with the likes of CB Darrelle Revis. It’s hard to call the run defense the weak link after it finished No. 8 in the league (98.6 YPG), but it’s all relative…Ryan is building the Jets into a force for both the long and short term, and the continued growth of Sanchez would fast track the franchise. Though there are several new faces to work into the rotation, they are seasoned veterans looking for that elusive Super Bowl ring.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9.5
StatFox Steve's Take: New York's first four home games in opening the New Meadowlands are against Baltimore, New England, Minnesota, and Green Bay. Talk about a challenge. Fortunately, the road schedule is one of, if not the easiest in the NFL. With a running game/defense combo that may be unparalleled in the NFL, I don't see how this team doesn't win 10 games. OVER.
Raiders finally ready to turn corner in 2010?
By: StatFox
The Oakland Raiders have been the worst team in the NFL since last appearing in the Super Bowl at the conclusion of the 2002 season. In failing to win more than five games in any season since, the problems have been multi-faceted. However, after finally enjoying an offseason of what seems to be strong personnel moves, perhaps this franchise is finally ready to turn the corner. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Oakland Raiders.
OAKLAND RAIDERS
2009 Record:5-11 (+5 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Tom Cable, 3rd year (9-19 SU, 13-15 ATS)
STADIUM:Oakland Coliseum
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, AFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:13 (#27 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-10.5 (#30 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 5-11 ~ 14-34 (29%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 21-27 (44%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-6 (50%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 13-11 (54%)
Division ATS: 4-2 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 7-5 ~ 19-17 (53%)
Favorite ATS: 0-1 ~ 0-6 (0%)
Underdog ATS: 8-7 ~ 21-21 (50%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 22-23 (49%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -11.4 (#30 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -95.8 (#31 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.15 (#29 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -6.36 (#31 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -13 (#30 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 266.1 (#31 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 361.9 (#26 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.88 (26th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - HOUSTON, 4:05 PM
10/10/10 - SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Denver, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - SEATTLE, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - MIAMI, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - at San Diego, 4:05 PM
12/12/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - DENVER, 4:15 PM
12/26/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:05 PM
1/2/11 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# OAKLAND is 1-12 ATS (-12.2 Units) after covering the spread in 2 out of their last 3 games since '07. The Average Score was OAKLAND 10.2, OPPONENT 29.1
2010 OUTLOOK
Since playing in the Super Bowl in 2002, the Raiders have lost 11 or more games in each of the last seven seasons. Despite troubles both on and off the field, HC Tom Cable was given another chance by owner Al Davis, although he no longer calls the offensive plays. That job will go to new OC Hue Jackson, the former Ravens QB coach…Former #1 overall pick QB JaMarcus Russell was released in the offseason, in favor of Jason Campbell, acquired from the Redskins. His 2009 numbers (3,618 yards, 20:15 Td-Int ratio) were respectable so it should be a sizeable upgrade. One problem, the Raiders dropped from 10th in the league in rushing in 2008 to 21st last year, gaining 106.3 YPG. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will compete for rushing attempts. The Raiders’ receiving corps was also a huge disappointment last year because Darrius Heyward-Bey failed to live up to promise. Fortunately, Louis Murphy, on the other hand, proved to be reliable. The key to the line will be the health of guard Robert Gallery—the leader of the unit—who suffered through an injury-plagued 2009 campaign…The Oakland stop unit ranked 26th in the NFL in 2009, allowing 361.9 YPG, so it was a surprise that DC John Marshall kept his job. The line is led by veteran DT Richard Seymour. The LB corps lost the team’s top tackler in Kirk Morrison, but gained his replacement with draftee Rolando McClain (1-Alabama). The eighth-overall pick is a strong, physical player with a tireless work ethic. The secondary is led by cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, so good that quarterbacks rarely throw his way…Cable is certainly on the hot seat and will need a fast start. That looks to be a tough task with a tough slate before the bye week. If things get ugly real fast, the Raiders could be doomed to another season of double-digit losses.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 6
StatFox Steve's Take: As much as the fact that six wins would be an eight year high for the Oakland franchise, I actually believe this team is capable. The AFC West is weak, the team played fairly well down the stretch last season, and the Campbell acquisition is a HUGE upgrade at quarterback. Don't be surprised to see Oakland reach the 6, 7, or perhaps even 8-win mark in 2010.
2010 begins a new era of Eagles' football
By: StatFox
The 2009 season may have marked the end of what proved to be the most successful era in the history of the Philadelphia Eagles. With Donovan McNabb, Brian Westbrook, and several other key players from the last decade gone, things will be quite different now in Philadelphia. Andy Reid still has a team he believes can win though, but much of the success this season will hinge on the development of McNabb's replacement, Kevin Kolb. Let's look at what the 2010 season has in store for the Philadelphia Eagles.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
2009 Record:11-6 (-4.5 ML Units), 9-8 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Andy Reid, 12th year (118-75-1 SU, 111-79 ATS)
STADIUM:Lincoln Financial Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, NFC Title:7 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:24 (#11 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+4.1 (#10 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 11-6 ~ 30-21 (59%)
ATS: 9-8 ~ 29-23 (56%)
Preseason ATS: 0-4 ~ 3-9 (25%)
Home ATS: 4-4 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 17-11 (61%)
Division ATS: 3-4 ~ 9-11 (45%)
Conference ATS: 8-5 ~ 23-17 (58%)
Favorite ATS: 8-4 ~ 20-17 (54%)
Underdog ATS: 1-4 ~ 8-6 (57%)
Over-Under: 11-6 ~ 26-25 (51%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +4.2 (#10 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +29.6 (#12 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.87 (#3 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +1.34 (#13 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +15 (#2 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 356.8 (#11 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 327.2 (#16 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.5 (6th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - GREEN BAY, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Jacksonville, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - WASHINGTON, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - at San Francisco, 8:20 PM
10/17/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 4:15 PM
11/15/10 - at Washington, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - NY GIANTS, 8:20 PM
11/28/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
12/2/10 - HOUSTON, 8:20 PM
12/12/10 - at Dallas, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - DALLAS, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# PHILADELPHIA is on a 9-0 ATS (+9 Units) run vs. teams scoring 29 or more PPG The Average Score was PHILADELPHIA 24.8, OPPONENT 23.7
2010 OUTLOOK
The three key faces of the Philadelphia Eagles over the last decade, QB Donovan McNabb, RB Brian Westbrook and S Brian Dawkins are all gone. It’s clear that the franchise is headed in a new direction. Are the Eagles better for it? Consecutive losses to Dallas in Week 17 and the Wild-Card Playoff cemented the thinking that changes were needed…At the very least, Philadelphia is younger with Kevin Kolb taking over under center, but along with youth comes inexperience. Replacing McNabb’s heart and experience will be difficult, but the strong-armed Kolb should have no trouble working with one of the more dynamic wide receiving units in the NFL. Pro Bowl WR DeSean Jackson and TE Brent Celek are on the verge of superstardom. Throw in Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant and Kolb has an almost unfair group of pass catchers to work with. Kolb’s biggest problem is going to be protection. McNabb was sacked 55 times, and no upgrades were made on the line. LeSean McCoy takes over for Westbrook after a strong rookie year (155 carries, 637 yards, 4 TD’s)…First-year DC Sean McDermott was hit hard by injuries last season. Still, DE Trent Cole has blossomed into a terror, posting 12.5 sacks and now will be joined by draftee Brandon Graham (1-Michigan) in pressuring passers. Veteran CB Asante Samuel tied for the NFL lead in interceptions (nine) and has 29 in the four seasons. Though the pass defense finished middle of the road in terms of big plays allowed, all three NFC East rivals boast top-flight quarterback/WR tandems. Improvement and depth are a must…Philadelphia has a lot of moving parts that have to start working in unison on offense. If Kolb doesn’t get time, the gamebreakers will do him no good. McDermott’s defense also has some question marks, and that could leave the Eagles battling for third in the NFC East.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
StatFox Steve's Take: I look at the NFC East and I see Dallas as the top dog, with Washington, the Giants, and Philadelphia all on the next level. The Eagles have the least experienced quarterback and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar situation this year in Philly as what happened in Green Bay two years ago with Aaron Rodgers. In other words, growing pains. I'll take the UNDER here.
Off-field incidents make life difficult for Steelers
By: StatFox
Even though it has won two of the last five Super Bowl titles, the Steelers' franchise has seen better days. Long known as a team with an exempliary record both on and off the field, Pittsburgh has been embarrassed by a series of offseason incidents involving key players. For 2010, what occurred off the field will actually affect what happens on it, as two Super Bowl XLIII heroes won't be in the season opening lineup. Let's look at those stories and everything else affecting the 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS
2009 Record:9-7 (-8.1 ML Units), 5-10 ATS
DIVISION:AFC North
COACH:Mike Tomlin, 4th year (34-18 SU, 25-26 ATS)
STADIUM:Heinz Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:10 to 1, AFC Title:5 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:22 (#14 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+1.8 (#13 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 9-7 ~ 34-18 (65%)
ATS: 5-10 ~ 25-26 (49%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-6 (54%)
Home ATS: 2-5 ~ 14-12 (54%)
Road ATS: 3-5 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Division ATS: 1-4 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 4-7 ~ 19-19 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 4-10 ~ 19-24 (44%)
Underdog ATS: 1-0 ~ 6-2 (75%)
Over-Under: 9-6 ~ 29-22 (57%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +2.8 (#14 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +65.8 (#6 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.80 (#6 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.02 (#21 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -3 (#20 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 371.1 (#7 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 305.3 (#5 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.06 (11th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - BALTIMORE, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at New Orleans, 8:20 PM
11/8/10 - at Cincinnati, 8:30 PM
11/14/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 8:20 PM
11/21/10 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Buffalo, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at Baltimore, 8:20 PM
12/12/10 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - NY JETS, 4:15 PM
12/23/10 - CAROLINA, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# PITTSBURGH is on a 30-12 ATS (+16.8 Units) run vs. top-level teams (Win Pct. > 75%) The Average Score was PITTSBURGH 21.3, OPPONENT 18.4
2010 OUTLOOK
The Steelers have won the Lombardi Trophy six times, but on each of the last three occasions, they failed to reach the playoffs as defending champions. They come off a winning season at 9-7, but to regain division supremacy they’ll have to overcome the losses of QB Ben Roethlisberger and WR Santonio Holmes…It’ll be interesting to see where Mike Tomlin’s team stands when Roethlisberger takes his first snap after serving a 6-game suspension. Byron Leftwich, Dennis Dixon, or Charlie Batch will steer the ship until Big Ben is available. The passing game was spectacular in 2009. The Steelers passed for 4,496 yards and 28 touchdowns. Tired of Holmes’ off-field shenanigans, the Steelers traded him for only a fifth-round pick. Mike Wallace (39 catches, 756 yards, 6 TD’s) gets first crack at the starting spot opposite Hines Ward. The health of feature back Rashard Mendenhall (1,100 yards) is crucial to the balance of the RB unit after Willie Parker was lost in free agency. Having allowed 50 sacks last seasons, the Steelers invested their top pick in center Maurkice Pouncey (1-Florida)…A year after ranking No. 1 in total defense, the Steelers didn’t suffer much of a dropoff. Only four teams allowed fewer total yards. Expect more of the same from coordinator Dick LeBeau’s unit. The linebackers will again set the tone led by James Harrison, Lamarr Woodley, and James Farrior. Still, it’s a safe bet the Steelers won’t reach their potential without Troy Polamalu at strong safety. His left knee, which in part cost him all but five games, is on the mend…Roethlisberger will miss only one game against a playoff team from 2009, so if the Steelers can hold their own during his absence they could be on the high road. On the flip side, the suspension could have a major impact and serve as the ignition switch to an implosion.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 9
StatFox Steve's Take: As good as Pittsburgh's defense is, nine is a very generous season win prop for a team being quarterbacked by Byron Leftwich. Let's get real here, this is not your daddy's Steelers' teams. This team is now a passing team, and Leftwich is not going to produce like Roethlisberger did. With so many distractions, I see Pittsburgh taking at least a step back. UNDER.
Once again...Super Bowl or bust for Chargers
By: StatFox
Even with future hall-of-fame running back Ladanian Tomlinson having moved on, the San Diego Chargers are the overwhelming favorite to win a fifth straight AFC West title. That means little to them however, since the previous four have amounted to little more than eventual postseason disappointment. Every San Diego player and fan has his or her goals set on reaching Super Bowl XLV in Dallas in February. Let's look at whether or not the 2010 San Diego Chargers have what it takes to reach that goal.
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2009 Record:13-4 (+6.1 ML Units), 8-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC West
COACH:Norv Turner, 4th year (35-19 SU, 31-22 ATS)
STADIUM:Qualcomm Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:8 to 1, AFC Title:4 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:30 (#1 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+5.8 (#9 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 13-4 ~ 35-19 (65%)
ATS: 8-8 ~ 31-22 (58%)
Preseason ATS: 2-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 16-10 (62%)
Road ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-12 (56%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 12-6 (67%)
Conference ATS: 5-8 ~ 25-17 (60%)
Favorite ATS: 5-7 ~ 21-18 (54%)
Underdog ATS: 3-1 ~ 10-4 (71%)
Over-Under: 10-6 ~ 28-22 (56%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +8.4 (#5 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +33.2 (#11 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.64 (#9 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +3.67 (#5 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +7 (#6 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 360.1 (#10 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 326.9 (#15 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 16.88 (32nd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - at Kansas City, 10:15 PM
9/19/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - ARIZONA, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
10/17/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - NEW ENGLAND, 4:15 PM
10/31/10 - TENNESSEE, 4:05 PM
11/7/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
11/22/10 - DENVER, 8:30 PM
11/28/10 - at Indianapolis, 8:20 PM
12/5/10 - OAKLAND, 4:05 PM
12/12/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:15 PM
12/16/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - at Cincinnati, 8:20 PM
1/2/11 - at Denver, 4:15 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# SAN DIEGO is 14-1 ATS (+12.9 Units) vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. since '07. The Average Score was SAN DIEGO 27.8, OPPONENT 15.9
2010 OUTLOOK
The Chargers have won four straight AFC West titles, with little to show for it. Last year, they lost at home in the divisional round as the AFC’s #2 seed. A few key contributors are gone, notably RB LaDainian Tomlinson, CB Antonio Cromartie, and NT Jamal Williams. HC Norv Turner’s job is safe, but can he lead the Chargers to the next level?...Philip Rivers HAS risen to the next level and he led the AFC in QB rating (104.4), throwing for 4,254 yards, and a 28:9 TD-Int. ratio. The running game will certainly be different. Rookie Ryan Mathews (1-Fresno State) is expected to be the No. 1 RB after leading the FBS in rushing. Darren Sproles will continue in his change-of-pace role. The Chargers passing offense thrives thanks to a receiving corps that keeps getting better. Vincent Jackson is underrated, Malcom Floyd comes off a career year, and of course TE Antonio Gates ( 1,157 yards, 8 TD’s) is as good as they come. The Chargers ranked 31st in the league in rushing, but didn’t spend any draft picks or sign any free agents on the offensive line. The left side is solid…Ron Rivera took over the DC job last year, and the Charger stop unit improved from 31st in the NFL against the pass to 11th (209.2 YPG), and they used three of their first four draft picks on defense in an effort to bolster the unit. The strength is at linebacker as the line is an unspectacular bunch. Cromartie, replaced by Antoine Cason, will be missed in the secondary, but fellow CB Quentin Jammer is improving big-time.If Mathews can step right in and be a productive rusher, the San Diego attack will be scary. A fifth-consecutive AFC West crown is likely, but how far the Chargers go in the playoffs is still the only thing that matters.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 11
StatFox Steve's Take: If San Diego could just start the season in Week 6 it would have a chance to win 15 or 16 games. The problem is the Chargers have been 2-3 after five weeks in each of the last three seasons. Still, a fast start seems more likely this year with perhaps the easiest first month schedule in the NFL. That should propel this team to at least 12 or 13 wins. OVER.
49ers favored for first division title since 2002
By: StatFox
Bettors have certainly come to love the 49ers under Mike Singletary, as they are 14-7 ATS in his short tenure. However, fans in San Francisco are even giddier about the team's prospects for 2010, as the 49ers appear poised to take over the NFC West Division from the Cardinals, the two-time defending champions wo Singletary's team beat twice a year ago. Let's analyze whether this optimism is warranted or if San Francisco is doomed to another playoff-less season, which would mark its eighth straight.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
2009 Record:8-8 (+0.3 ML Units), 9-4 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Mike Singletary, 3rd year (13-12 SU, 14-7 ATS)
STADIUM:Candlestick Park
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, NFC Title:13 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:21 (#15 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+1.0 (#15 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 20-28 (42%)
ATS: 9-4 ~ 21-23 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 5-2 ~ 11-11 (50%)
Road ATS: 4-2 ~ 10-12 (45%)
Division ATS: 5-1 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 7-3 ~ 14-19 (42%)
Favorite ATS: 5-1 ~ 7-4 (64%)
Underdog ATS: 4-2 ~ 14-18 (44%)
Over-Under: 5-11 ~ 19-28 (40%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +3.1 (#13 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -35.6 (#24 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.03 (#19 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +4.43 (#1 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +9 (#5 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 290.8 (#27 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 326.4 (#14 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 17.94 (31st toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
9/20/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 8:30 PM
9/26/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 8:20 PM
10/17/10 - OAKLAND, 4:05 PM
10/24/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - vs. Denver (London), 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - TAMPA BAY, 4:05 PM
11/29/10 - at Arizona, 8:30 PM
12/5/10 - at Green Bay, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - SEATTLE, 4:05 PM
12/16/10 - at San Diego, 8:20 PM
12/26/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - ARIZONA, 4:15 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# SAN FRANCISCO is on a 16-3 OVER the total (+12.7 Units) run on the road vs. poor rushing teams - averaging <=3.5 YPR The Average Score was SAN FRANCISCO 26.2, OPPONENT 26.4
2010 OUTLOOK
Mike Singletary has restored some stability to a wayward franchise, as the 49ers 8-8 mark snapped a string of six consecutive losing seasons. The next goal is to unseat the Cardinals, who they beat twice a year ago, and win the NFC West…San Francisco finished 27th in total offense (290.8 YPG) and 18th in scoring (20.6 PPG) in OC Jimmy Raye’s first year. Shaun Hill and Alex Smith shared time at QB through the first six weeks, but it became Smith’s job over the final 10 games. He may finally be ready to fulfill the promise that made him the #1 overall pick in the 2005 draft. RB Frank Gore keeps the San Francisco running game a threat, with 1,120 yards and a career-best 10 touchdowns in 2009. Highly touted WR Michael Crabtree, new acquisition Ted Ginn Jr. and TE Vernon Davis, off a monster season, make up the best pass-catching unit this team has had in over a decade. The interior may take a little while to mesh with first round rookie starters LT Anthony Davis & RG Mike Iupati…The stop unit held seven opponents to 10 points or fewer and allowed just 17.6 PPG overall, good for fourth in the NFL. The unit’s 326.4 yards allowed per game ranked 15th. All three starters return to the three-man front, while San Francisco’s quartet of linebackers can play both fast and physical. The catalyst is Patrick Willis, who paced the NFL with 152 tackles. The secondary should be better with the return of CB Nate Clements, sidelined for nine games with a shoulder injury…If the Niners are going to qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2002, it will be up to Smith to lead the way. He is surrounded by weapons and the defense is easily the division’s best. San Francisco could take the NFC West.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
StatFox Steve's Take: San Francisco has the lowest regular season win prop of any divisional favorite, and considering that 8-8 division winners are extremely rare, you'd have to assume that if the 49ers get it done in the West this year, they will be at least 9-7. Thus the question is...will they? With the 2nd easiest schedule in the NFL on tap, I have to say YES. OVER.
Carroll has work cut out for him in Seattle
By: StatFox
Taking over for Mike Holmgren last season, Jim Mora, Jr. had little more than a cup of coffee in Seattle. After a 5-11 season, he was quickly replaced by USC's Pete Carroll, who has been entrusted with restoring the pride to a team that won four straight NFC West titles from 2004-07. It figures to take time and patience, although Carroll has been quick in getting things the way he wants them. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Seattle Seahawks.
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
2009 Record:5-11 (-8.2 ML Units), 6-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Pete Carroll, 1st year (34-33 SU in NFL - NE & NYJ)
STADIUM:Qwest Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:50 to 1, NFC Title:23 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:10 (#30 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-8.4 (#28 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 5-11 ~ 20-30 (40%)
ATS: 6-10 ~ 23-25 (48%)
Preseason ATS: 4-0 ~ 11-1 (92%)
Home ATS: 5-3 ~ 15-8 (65%)
Road ATS: 1-7 ~ 8-17 (32%)
Division ATS: 3-3 ~ 11-7 (61%)
Conference ATS: 4-8 ~ 17-20 (46%)
Favorite ATS: 5-2 ~ 16-7 (70%)
Underdog ATS: 1-8 ~ 7-18 (28%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 23-24 (49%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -6.9 (#26 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -41 (#25 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.77 (#25 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -3.44 (#26 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -8 (#27 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 316.8 (#21 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 357.8 (#24 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.25 (28th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Denver, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - SAN DIEGO, 4:15 PM
10/3/10 - at St Louis, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - ARIZONA, 4:05 PM
10/31/10 - at Oakland, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - NY GIANTS, 4:05 PM
11/14/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - at New Orleans, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - KANSAS CITY, 4:05 PM
12/5/10 - CAROLINA, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
12/19/10 - ATLANTA, 4:05 PM
12/26/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - ST LOUIS, 4:15 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# SEATTLE is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) on the road vs. teams scoring 24 or more PPG since '07. The Average Score was SEATTLE 14.5, OPPONENT 35.8
2010 OUTLOOK
The 2005 season, when Seattle played in its only Super Bowl, seems like ages ago. Architect Mike Holmgren is now in Cleveland, leaving behind a Seahawks’ team with just nine wins in their last 32 games. Jim Mora’s tenure lasted all of 16 games and now Seattle has turned to Pete Carroll, of USC fame. Seattle ruled the NFC West from 2004-07, and Carroll’s task will be to reverse the recent losing trend…The Seahawks were 25th in the NFL in scoring, averaging just 17.5 PPG. Matt Hasselbeck enters his 12th season and his 17 touchdowns last year were his lowest full-season total since 2002. Seattle was not productive on the ground as Julius Jones and Justin Forsett split time at RB with moderate success. Leon Washington, a multi-talented performer coming off a broken leg, was added through a trade. T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the Seattle wideouts but Nate Burleson departed as a free agent after 63 catches. TE John Carlson led the team with seven TD’s. The newest addition to the line is rookie tackle Russell Okung (1a-OSU), who will have big shoes to fill for the retired Walter Jones. The rest of the line remains intact…The Seahawks were 12th in the NFC in total defense, allowing 356.4 YPG, but where Seattle really struggled was against the pass (245.4 YPG), ranking 30th. The pass rush suffered a blow with the retirement of Patrick Kearney, but Lofa Tatupu, who missed the last 10 games with a torn pectoral muscle, returns at middle linebacker. Expect an improved Aaron Curry while CB Marcus Trufant remains the leader in the secondary. He also missed six games with a back injury…The Seahawks grabbed one of college football’s high-profile coaches to rebuild the team but Carroll has catching up to do. Concerns on the offensive and defensive lines will likely lead to a third straight losing season.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Carroll has claimed that not succeeding in the NFL is one of his career regrets. Perhaps that and leaving the USC program in flames. In any case, it's going to take awhile for both he and the Seahawks to achieve success, regardless of the divisional competition. With a roster in transition, I look for another 5-11 type of season. UNDER.
Rams hope 2009 was rock bottom
By: StatFox
The St. Louis Rams are on a pattern in which they've won three games in 2007, two in 2008, and just one a year ago. It doesn't take a genious to know what comes next if that trend continues. Even still, there is hope on the horizon, and it comes in the form of #1 overall draft pick Sam Bradford, who takes over at quarterback. Head coach Steve Spagnuolo is saying all the right things as well. Could 2010 be a revival for the Rams' franchise, or are they doomed once again for the NFC West basement?
ST LOUIS RAMS
2009 Record:1-15 (-12.7 ML Units), 7-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC West
COACH:Steve Spagnulo, 2nd year (1-15 SU, 7-9 ATS)
STADIUM:Edward Jones Dome
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:6 (#32 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-16 (#32 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 1-15 ~ 6-42 (13%)
ATS: 7-9 ~ 18-30 (38%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 3-5 ~ 8-16 (33%)
Road ATS: 4-4 ~ 10-14 (42%)
Division ATS: 1-5 ~ 4-14 (22%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 13-23 (36%)
Favorite ATS: 0-0 ~ 2-2 (50%)
Underdog ATS: 7-9 ~ 16-28 (36%)
Over-Under: 7-9 ~ 20-25 (44%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -16.3 (#32 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -92.1 (#29 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -1.36 (#30 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -12.04 (#32 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -14 (#31 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 280.7 (#29 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 372.8 (#29 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 18.06 (29th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - ARIZONA, 4:15 PM
9/19/10 - at Oakland, 4:05 PM
9/26/10 - WASHINGTON, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - SEATTLE, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - SAN DIEGO, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - at Tampa Bay, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at San Francisco, 4:15 PM
11/21/10 - ATLANTA, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - at Denver, 4:15 PM
12/5/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
12/12/10 - at New Orleans, 4:05 PM
12/19/10 - KANSAS CITY, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - SAN FRANCISCO, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Seattle, 4:15 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# ST LOUIS is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in the first month of the season since '07. The Average Score was ST LOUIS 8.8, OPPONENT 29.8
2010 OUTLOOK
The Rams finished with a 1-15 mark in 2009 and lost eight of those games by 19 points or more. St. Louis scored the fewest points in the NFL and allowed the second most. Now comes Year Two for HC Steve Spagnuolo, as he tries to fortify a defense that showed a few flashes of potential and build an offense around a premier RB and a QB who was the top overall selection in the draft…St. Louis was 29th in total offense (279.4 YPG), and 32nd in scoring (10.9 PPG). Improvement shouldn’t be much of a challenge. QB Marc Bulger was released, and will be replaced by either journeyman A.J. Feeley or rookie Sam Bradford (1-Oklahoma). The Rams would like to work Bradford in slowly but may not have that luxury. RB Steven Jackson paced the NFC with 1,416 yards rushing. He also had 51 catches and remains the one productive fixture in the offense. Donnie Avery (47 catches, 589 yards, 5 TD’s) will start as one receiver with an open competition for the other. The line is beleaguered and needs to improve…The team’s offense was bad but the defense wasn’t far behind as the Rams finished 29th in total defense (372.8 YPG), and 31st in scoring (27.2 PPG). The line had just 25 sacks, but that may change with the continued maturation of end Chris Long and the addition of tackle Fred Robbins. Second-year LB James Laurinaitis had a standout rookie year and will only get better. The secondary could be a work in progress…The Rams have hit rock bottom and now begin the slow climb back to being competitive. If the offensive line affords Bradford some time and Jackson stays healthy, more points will follow. More stability on the defensive line should also help. Spagnuolo could coax five or six wins out of this team if things break right.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5
StatFox Steve's Take: I'm not sure a team that was outscored by over 16 PPG in the prior season can rebound enough to even dream of winning four or five more games in the follow-up campaign. As much as I believe the Rams hit rock bottom last year and are headed back up now, winning five games still seems far-fetched. UNDER.
Bucs buried in tough NFC South Division
By: StatFox
There is a history in the NFC South Division of teams being able to go from worst to first in a single season. Quite frankly though, you'd probably have a better chance with the state lottery than cashing a ticket on the Buccaneeers to win the division in 2010. After their 3-13 campaign a year ago, the rebuilding effort continues this season behind head coach Raheem Morris. In no lesser words, Tampa Bay is buried behind New Orleans, Carolina, and Atlanta, and hence bound for the basement again. Let's look at the Bucs' upcoming season.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS
2009 Record:3-13 (-0.5 ML Units), 6-10 ATS
DIVISION:NFC South
COACH:Raheem Morris, 2nd year (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS)
STADIUM:Raymond James Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:100 to 1, NFC Title:50 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:15 (#24 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-7.1 (#26 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 3-13 ~ 21-28 (43%)
ATS: 6-10 ~ 23-26 (47%)
Preseason ATS: 1-3 ~ 7-5 (58%)
Home ATS: 1-6 ~ 11-13 (46%)
Road ATS: 5-4 ~ 12-13 (48%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 10-8 (56%)
Conference ATS: 5-7 ~ 20-17 (54%)
Favorite ATS: 0-0 ~ 11-9 (55%)
Underdog ATS: 6-10 ~ 12-17 (41%)
Over-Under: 6-10 ~ 23-26 (47%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -9.8 (#29 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -78 (#27 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: -0.84 (#27 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -4.30 (#29 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -5 (#22 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 287.6 (#28 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 365.6 (#27 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.06 (23rd toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - ST LOUIS, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Arizona, 4:15 PM
11/7/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - CAROLINA, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at San Francisco, 4:05 PM
11/28/10 - at Baltimore, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - ATLANTA, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - at Washington, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - DETROIT, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - SEATTLE, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at New Orleans, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# TAMPA BAY is on a 27-8 UNDER the total (+18.2 Units) run in the first two weeks of the season The Average Score was TAMPA BAY 15.7, OPPONENT 15.7
2010 OUTLOOK
The Buccaneers were painful to watch at times in their first season under Raheem Morris, who had to wait until November for his first NFL head coaching victory. Unfortunately, despite a string of recent turnarounds in this division, another last-place finish in the NFC South seems likely…The Bucs gained more yards than only four teams and need to improve across the board to be competitive in a division with three offensive-minded clubs. QB Josh Freeman made his pro debut and finished with 1,855 yards, 10 touchdowns and 20 giveaways. Tight end Kellen Winslow caught a team-leading 77 balls for 884 yards and five touchdowns. If nothing else, the new wideout corps has promise. It could only be a matter of time before rookies Arrelious Benn (2b-Illinois) and Mike Williams (4-Syracuse) top the depth chart. The front office invested plenty of dough in RB Derrick Ward last offseason, but not many touches. In fact, Carnell Williams had nearly twice as many yards (823) and carries (211) than Ward. The line lacks a household name but brings back four starters…It seems like yesterday when Tampa Bay’s defense was one of the league’s most-feared units but 2009 saw it get pushed around weekly. The Bucs allowed 5,849 yards, worst in the league, and 46 touchdowns. Improvement is vital, and the numbers justify the front office investing three of its first four draft picks on defensive players, including highly touted tackle Gerald McCoy (1-Oklahoma), who brings exceptional quickness and ability to a defense that sorely needs a rising star. LB Barrett Ruud, who paced the team with 142 tackles, should hopefully see a lesser load with McCoy stopping things upfront… The Bucs received high grades for their draft but remain in rebuilding mode. It will be at least another year before they’ll sniff playoff contention. Continued growth of Freeman would be a positive sign.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 5.5
StatFox Steve's Take: I don't think I can sugercoat this one…Tampa Bay has its hands full and is overmatched in the NFC South Division. All of the Bucs' road games are against teams considered to be playoff contenders. I can three or four wins possibly, but no way does that number reach six. UNDER.
Which Titans' team shows up for 2010?
By: StatFox
The 2009 season was really like two different seasons for the Titans. There was the part where they were 0-6 while allowing 33 PPG, and the other part where they were 8-2 and nearly good enough to reach the postseason. The latter part, behind the leadership of quarterback Vince Young, is what the Tennessee coaching staff is hoping will guide the fortunes in 2010. If so, perhaps a playoff berth is possible this upcoming January. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Tennessee Titans.
TENNESSEE TITANS
2009 Record:8-8 (-1.8 ML Units), 6-9 ATS
DIVISION:AFC South
COACH:Jeff Fisher, 16th year (141-116 SU, 132-117 ATS)
STADIUM:LP Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, AFC Title:15 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:20 (#16 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-2.5 (#21 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 8-8 ~ 31-19 (62%)
ATS: 6-9 ~ 26-21 (55%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 6-6 (50%)
Home ATS: 3-4 ~ 12-10 (55%)
Road ATS: 3-5 ~ 14-11 (56%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 11-7 (61%)
Conference ATS: 4-8 ~ 19-19 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 3-5 ~ 17-12 (59%)
Underdog ATS: 3-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Over-Under: 9-7 ~ 22-27 (45%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -3 (#21 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -14.2 (#21 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.05 (#16 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -1.33 (#23 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -4 (#21 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 351.4 (#13 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 365.6 (#27 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 21.06 (11th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - OAKLAND, 1:00 PM
9/19/10 - PITTSBURGH, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - DENVER, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - at Dallas, 4:15 PM
10/18/10 - at Jacksonville, 8:30 PM
10/24/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at San Diego, 4:05 PM
11/14/10 - at Miami, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - WASHINGTON, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - at Houston, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - JACKSONVILLE, 1:00 PM
12/9/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM
12/19/10 - HOUSTON, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Kansas City, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - at Indianapolis, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# TENNESSEE is on a 26-9 OVER the total (+16.1 Units) run vs. poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 YPG The Average Score was TENNESSEE 26.4, OPPONENT 23.9
2010 OUTLOOK
Tennessee followed up its AFC South title with a 0-6 start to the 2009 campaign that included a 59-0 drubbing at New England. Thankfully, Titans returned from the bye week with Vince Young starting at QB and went on to win seven of eight games. It wasn’t enough to get Tennessee to the postseason, so Jeff Fisher will need to regroup and figure out how to complement the best RB in the game and improve a defensive unit that took a huge step back…There was no sophomore jinx for RB Chris Johnson, who finished with 2,006 yards and 14 touchdowns. Johnson’s success led to the Titans letting crutch Lendale White go. Young will begin the season as the starter and while he’ll never post eye-popping passing statistics, his scrambling ability and elusiveness make him a threat every time he touches the ball. Plus, the Titans’ receiving corps is average at best, with Nate Washington and Kenny Britt the starters at receiver and Bo Scaife, the tight end. Young and Johnson are able to be creative because they play behind one of the better lines in the league…Chuck Cecil took over the reins as defensive coordinator last season, and the results were far from positive. The Titans were miserable against the pass and not much better against the run. Tennessee picked DE Derrick Morgan (1-Georgia Tech) in the draft and he could start right away considering Kyle Vanden Bosch left as a free agent. Outside LB Keith Bulluck remained unsigned as of press time. The Titans allowed an AFC-high 258.7 YPG through the air, so the secondary needs to step up…Which Titans team will show up in 2010? The 0-6 club that started ‘09 or that which looked like a defending division titlist at the end? It’s the season’s biggest question in the AFC South.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 8.5
StatFox Steve's Take: This is a tough one for me, because I believe that Vince Young's success a year ago was due to the change of pace he presented after replacing Kerry Collins and because teams were taking the Titans' lightly after the 0-6 start. A full 16-game slate will be the real test. While I don't like to bet against Jeff Fisher a whole lot, this team looks like about a .500 club to me. Pass.