Redskins in better hands moving forward
By: StatFox
What a difference an offseason can make in the NFL. When we last left the Redskins at the end of the 2009 season, they were a 4-12 club going nowhere fast behind head coach Jim Zorn and quarterback Jason Campbell. Fast forward six months and Mike Shanahan is running the show, Donovan McNabb is under center, and an otherwise revamped roster is hopeful for a playoff push. This is why we love the NFL. Our 32 teams in 32 days season preview series concludes with a look at the 2010 Washington Redskins.
WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2009 Record:4-12 (-10.6 ML Units), 6-9 ATS
DIVISION:NFC East
COACH:Mike Shanahan, 1st year (154-103 in NFL - LAR & DEN)
STADIUM:FedEx Field
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:30 to 1, NFC Title:13 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:18 (#19 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:-5.7 (#24 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 4-12 ~ 21-28 (43%)
ATS: 6-9 ~ 19-25 (43%)
Preseason ATS: 2-2 ~ 7-6 (54%)
Home ATS: 2-6 ~ 8-15 (35%)
Road ATS: 4-3 ~ 11-10 (52%)
Division ATS: 2-4 ~ 9-9 (50%)
Conference ATS: 4-8 ~ 17-17 (50%)
Favorite ATS: 1-4 ~ 6-13 (32%)
Underdog ATS: 5-5 ~ 12-12 (50%)
Over-Under: 9-7 ~ 20-28 (42%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: -4.4 (#24 of 32)
Yardage Differential: -6.5 (#18 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.05 (#17 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: -3.65 (#27 of 32)
Turnover Differential: -11 (#28 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 313 (#22 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 319.5 (#11 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.75 (15th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/12/10 - DALLAS, 8:20 PM
9/19/10 - HOUSTON, 4:15 PM
9/26/10 - at St Louis, 4:05 PM
10/3/10 - at Philadelphia, 4:15 PM
10/10/10 - GREEN BAY, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - INDIANAPOLIS, 8:20 PM
10/24/10 - at Chicago, 1:00 PM
10/31/10 - at Detroit, 1:00 PM
11/15/10 - PHILADELPHIA, 8:30 PM
11/21/10 - at Tennessee, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - MINNESOTA, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - at NY Giants, 1:00 PM
12/12/10 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
12/19/10 - at Dallas, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Jacksonville, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - NY GIANTS, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# Over the L2 seasons, WASHINGTON is 10-1 UNDER the total (+8.9 Units) as favorites. The Average Score was WASHINGTON 16.5, OPPONENT 15.8
2010 OUTLOOK
One of new head coach Mike Shanahan’s first moves may well be the most shocking of his coaching career—adding QB Donovan McNabb to the huddle, at the expense of the division rival Eagles…McNabb wasn’t well-protected in his final season with Philadelphia, sacked 35 times, but he should fare better in a city known for keeping leaders safe. Despite losing LT Chris Samuels to retirement, the Redskins are banking on Trent Williams (1-Oklahoma) filling the void. McNabb might be hard-pressed to match his usual numbers in coordinator Kyle Shanahan’s run-first system, unless of course, the wheels totally fall off the revamped ground attack…Five years ago, the three players currently in the Redskins’ backfield—Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker—all topped 1,200 yards rushing and combined for 35 touchdowns. Father Time has apparently caught them from behind. Santana Moss returns as the lead receiver, and behind him on the depth chart—outside of reliable tight end Chris Cooley—stand plenty of question marks…The Redskins struck gold with OLB Brian Orakpo in the 2009 draft, and he fits even better in new coordinator Jim Haslett’s 3-4 scheme. It helps lining up along inside LB London Fletcher, a tackle machine that hasn’t missed a game in 12 seasons. The linebackers had a huge hand in the Redskins finish as the No. 10 defense in the NFL. However, 100$M man DT Albert Haynesworth, continues to balk at the change in scheme that could force him inside off the edge and skipped early offseason workouts. The pass defense features CB’s DeAngelo Hall and Carlos Rogers, yet big plays were still a big problem…Are the Redskins Super Bowl bound? Not by a longshot, and playing in the NFC East, a second consecutive last-place finish isn’t out of the question. Still, Shanahan cleaned house, and at least on paper, this team looks better.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 7.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Jim Zorn was in over his head as the top man in Washington and in my opinion was responsible for the Redskins' demise. They lost eight games by a single possession or less last fall. With a well-repected NFL mind now at the controls, and an upgrade at quarterback, I believe Washington is at least as good or better than it was in the two years prior to '09, when they won eight and nine games. OVER.
Missed one 😡
Well-balanced Ravens capable of 2010 title run
By: StatFox
The Baltimore Ravens have won three playoff games in two years under John Harbaugh, including sending the Patriots to their first home playoff loss in the Bill Belichick-era last January. In both seasons, the Ravens reached the postseason as wildcards. Now, with some key roster additions, the sky is the limit for the new favorites in the AFC North. Our 32 NFL teams in 32 days season preview series continues with a look at the 2010 Baltimore Ravens.
BALTIMORE RAVENS
2009 Record:10-8 (-1.2 ML Units), 9-8 ATS
DIVISION:AFC North
COACH:John Harbaugh, 3rd year (23-14 SU, 23-13 ATS)
STADIUM:M&T Bank Stadium
Odds to win Super Bowl XLV:15 to 1, AFC Title:8 to 1
StatFox Power Rating:29 (#3 of 32)
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating:+7.8 (#4 of 32)
SITUATIONAL RECORDS
Scenario: 2009 ~ 3-YR TOTAL
Straight Up: 10-8 ~ 28-25 (53%)
ATS: 9-8 ~ 26-26 (50%)
Preseason ATS: 3-1 ~ 5-7 (42%)
Home ATS: 5-3 ~ 14-10 (58%)
Road ATS: 4-5 ~ 12-16 (43%)
Division ATS: 2-3 ~ 8-10 (44%)
Conference ATS: 6-7 ~ 19-21 (48%)
Favorite ATS: 6-4 ~ 15-12 (56%)
Underdog ATS: 3-4 ~ 11-14 (44%)
Over-Under: 7-10 ~ 28-23 (55%)
2009 Key Team Stats & NFL Ranks
Scoring Differential: +8.8 (#4 of 32)
Yardage Differential: +51.9 (#8 of 32)
Yards Per Play Differential: +0.72 (#8 of 32)
Yards Per Point Differential: +4.26 (#2 of 32)
Turnover Differential: +11 (#4 of 32)
Total Offense (Yards Per Game): 346.3 (#14 of 32)
Total Defense (Yards Per Game): 294.4 (#2 of 32)
2010 SCHEDULE: Strength - 20.69 (16th toughest of 32)
DATE - OPPONENT, TIME
9/13/10 - at NY Jets, 7:00 PM
9/19/10 - at Cincinnati, 1:00 PM
9/26/10 - CLEVELAND, 1:00 PM
10/3/10 - at Pittsburgh, 1:00 PM
10/10/10 - DENVER, 1:00 PM
10/17/10 - at New England, 1:00 PM
10/24/10 - BUFFALO, 1:00 PM
11/7/10 - MIAMI, 1:00 PM
11/14/10 - at Atlanta, 1:00 PM
11/21/10 - at Carolina, 1:00 PM
11/28/10 - TAMPA BAY, 1:00 PM
12/5/10 - PITTSBURGH, 8:20 PM
12/13/10 - at Houston, 8:30 PM
12/19/10 - NEW ORLEANS, 1:00 PM
12/26/10 - at Cleveland, 1:00 PM
1/2/11 - CINCINNATI, 1:00 PM
StatFox Power Trend for 2010
# Over the L2 seasons, BALTIMORE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) vs. teams with a losing record. The Average Score was BALTIMORE 31.1, OPPONENT 9.6
2010 OUTLOOK
The Ravens seem to have this wild-card thing figured out. While Pittsburgh and Cincinnati finished atop the AFC North in 2008 and ’09, respectively, Baltimore gained entry to the postseason each season and has a combined three victories. Could the Ravens’ 33-14 dismantling of the Patriots in Foxboro last January be a sign of things to come? With unflappable QB Joe Flacco entering his third season, along with head coach John Harbaugh, this team isn’t too far away. The front office made a bold offseason move, acquiring WR Anquan Boldin (Cardinals), to help achieve the goal of reaching the next step…Baltimore’s running game has ranked among the NFL’s best five in consecutive seasons and elusive Ray Rice (1,339 yards, seven touchdowns) and powerful Willis McGahee (544, 12) comprise one of the best 1-2 punches in the business. Flacco, a year after becoming the first NFL rookie signal-caller to win two playoff games, continued progress with 3,613 yards passing, and 21-12 TD-Int ratio. The addition of Boldin helps his cause and allows coordinator Cam Cameron to go deeper in the playbook. The front line is as solid as they come…Ray Lewis & Co. don’t need an introduction, but the front office felt a little reinforcement for a unit, aging in certain spots, couldn’t hurt. Sergio Kindle (2a-Texas) joins a LB corps that already included Lewis, Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson, and beefy Terrence Cody (2b-Alabama) will fit right in with Kelly Gregg and Haloti Ngata in the trenches. In the secondary, when Ed Reed’s healthy and doing his thing, it’s hard to find a better safety in the business…While a wild-card spot would be nothing to complain about, the Ravens have bigger goals in mind. As long as the key parts stay healthy, especially on defense, the AFC North is theirs for the taking. Another double-digit win season and more January action looks like a safe bet.
Regular Season Wins Prop: Over/Under 10
StatFox Steve's Take: As I just indicated earlier, double-digit wins seem like a safe bet for this team. The real key to how this team has gotten to the upper levels of the NFL has been the offense. Baltimore is not a one-trick pony anymore, and has a potent offense to match its intimidating defense. This is a true Super Bowl contender. I see 12-4. OVER.